沪铜主力合约强势上涨，再度站上8万元/吨，现涨近2%，为4月初以来新高。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,140 per ton, anticipating a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [2][4][23] - The ongoing Section 232 copper investigation in the U.S. has led to significant discrepancies between COMEX and LME copper prices, resulting in the U.S. over-importing approximately 400,000 tons of copper this year [2][5][18] - Despite a global copper surplus, concerns about regional shortages outside the U.S. have intensified, tightening the LME copper curve and leading to a significant spot premium [2][5][9] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories to increase by 150,000 tons in Q3, followed by a decrease of 120,000 tons in Q4 after the implementation of tariffs [18][23] - The firm predicts a slight global copper surplus of 105,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a deficit of 100,000 tons in China and 200,000 tons in other regions [13][18] - The anticipated 25% tariff on copper imports by September is expected to further influence market dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in the COMEX-LME price spread [3][36] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its recommendation to go long on the December 2025 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, citing that the current market is underestimating the risks of tariffs [3][36] - The firm has adjusted its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $10,000 per ton, down from $10,170 per ton, while still expecting a slight deficit in the market [30][34] - Concerns regarding solar demand growth have led to a downward revision of global solar demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027, impacting overall copper demand projections [31][33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising costs of new copper mines globally due to increasing inflation, which is impacting copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Global inflation is intensifying, leading to higher costs for establishing new copper mines [1] - The article raises questions about how copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations will evolve in response to these rising costs [1]

本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存在不确 定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较 大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审 慎作出投资决定。 同宇新材料（广东）股份有限公司 Tongyu Advanced Materials （Guangdong） Co., LTD 广东省肇庆市四会市大沙镇马房开发区（西南一区编号 ES1020） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 保荐人（主承销商） 福州市湖东路 268 号 同宇新材料（广东）股份有限公司 招股说明书 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME three-month copper prices have risen to $9,832 per ton, marking the highest level since March 28 [1] Group 1 - The increase in copper prices indicates a strong demand in the market [1] - The current price reflects a significant upward trend in the copper market [1]

交流内容 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观面：周期底部接近成熟 基本面：铜市提前进入供应短缺 即将来临的消费旺季将凸显供应问题 消费旺季来临，铜市拉开上涨大幕 银河期货 车红云 投资咨询资格证号：Z0012165 铜的周期就是全球经济周期 正常经济周期： 经济进入强劲增长是铜价大涨的前提 非常规周期： 重大危机下的QE政策 当前： (美联储主席鲍威尔) 周期时间： 8年 8年 7年 7年 8年 铜价进入上行周期的条件 GALAXY FUTURES 2 2022年Q2的宏观背景是未来基准 | 标名称 ↓ | 美国GDP环比折年率 | 欧元区GDP季调环比 | | 中国GDP当季同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河ID | G0000002 | G0900711 | M0039354 | | | 18 | के | ਝੁੱ | ਝੁੱ | | | 立 | % | % | % | | | 居来源 | 美国经济分析局 | 欧盟统计局 | 国家统计局 | | | 23-12 | 3.20 | | 0.00 | 5.20 | | 23-09 | 4.90 | | -0.1 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜小涨至 78810，总持仓增 11458 手，盘面 07-08 价差缩窄至 130，现货升水跌 10 至 30，淡季下游对高价铜接货意愿有限，LME 市场价差也缩窄，0-3 价差缩窄 至 150 美元/吨，现货紧缺情况略有缓解，但 LME 库存继续下降 1200 至 93475 吨， LME 低库存导致的高 BACK 结构短期仍难缓解，C ...

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年6月26日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78810 | 73000-80000 | 8.58% | 6.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C80000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation under the US Section 232 has led to significant market distortions, with the US experiencing a copper shortage due to excessive imports, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its copper price forecasts for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the initiation of the US Section 232 copper import investigation, approximately 400,000 tons of copper have been imported into the US, equivalent to 6-7 months of demand, causing shortages in non-US regions [1][2]. - The available inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) has decreased by about 80% this year, now representing less than a day's global usage [1][2]. - The abnormal price differential between COMEX and LME copper prices is attributed to the expectation of impending import tariffs, with COMEX prices being higher [2][3]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its LME copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1][4][5]. - The upward revision is based on significant global inventory mismatches and resilient economic activity in China, with a projected GDP growth rate slightly above 5% for Q2 [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Outlook - The US copper inventory has surged to over 100 days of consumption, compared to just 33 days at the beginning of the year, while global inventories outside the US are below 10 days [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a global inventory increase of approximately 280,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with an overall slight surplus of 10,500 tons for the year, primarily driven by a projected surplus of 400,000 tons in the US market [3]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The timing of tariff implementation is a critical variable, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an 80% probability that a 25% tariff will be imposed on US copper imports by September [7]. - If tariffs are delayed, US imports may continue into Q4, exacerbating supply tightness in non-US markets [7]. - Goldman Sachs recommends a long position on the December COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, noting that the market currently underestimates the likelihood of a 25% or even 50% tariff [7].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78560，基差-250，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月25日铜库存减1200至93475吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地 ...