证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A 股盈利望增长约 10%。③结构上，26 年科技及高端制造或仍维持较明显 增长，此外 A 股企业盈利的点状改善有望往其他行业扩散，例如消费地产。 25 年 A 股上市公司盈利已在企稳，其主因成本压降，内生性动能仍偏弱。 从整体情况看，全部 A 股盈利于 25 年确认企稳回升趋势。同时，全部 A 股 净资产收益率自 22 年以来首次出现企稳。剔除金融两油企业后，其复苏改 善更为明显，ROE 同样边际企稳。从盈利回升的驱动看，这主要源自成本压 降，内生性动能或仍偏弱。拆分净利润增速看，动力或主要来自于整体企业 降费增效，销售毛利率同比仍承压，净利率同比上行主因企业控费增效；其 收入端贡献相对有限，整体复苏节奏仍偏慢。从 ROE 拆分看，其企稳主因净 利润率回升，但上市公司扩表意 ...

Economic Growth and Inflation - Russia's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 1%, a slowdown from 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, primarily due to measures aimed at reducing inflation [2] - The inflation rate in Russia has decreased to 5.6% in 2025, down from 9.5% in 2024, with a year-to-date annualized inflation rate of 6.4% as of January 26 [3] - The Central Bank of Russia has adjusted the benchmark interest rate, which peaked at 21% in the first half of 2025 and was reduced to 18% in the second half, maintaining a "moderately tight" stance to prevent inflation rebound [3] Factors Contributing to Economic Decline - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted financial resources towards military spending, limiting investments in production and technology [4] - Long-term impacts of Western sanctions have led to technological blockades, hindering industrial upgrades and weakening the industrial base [4] - High borrowing costs, reduced demand, and increased military expenditures have tightened fiscal conditions, contributing to economic slowdown [5] Sectoral Performance - Key sectors such as transportation, construction, and certain extraction industries, particularly coal, oil, and gas, have underperformed due to the Central Bank's interest rate hikes [5] - Investment growth in Russia has stagnated, with fixed asset investment projected to show zero growth by the end of 2025, marking the end of rapid growth driven by state spending and import substitution [5] Future Economic Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainty poses significant challenges for Russia's economy, with energy exports constrained and international oil prices declining [6] - The government plans to increase the value-added tax rate from 20% to 22% starting in 2026, which is expected to impact consumer prices and inflation [6] - Experts suggest that the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely lead to sustained economic decline unless significant changes occur [7]

2020年上市之后，2021年凯龙高科扣非净利润就已陷入亏损。日前凯龙高科发布业绩预告，公司预计 2025年将实现归母净利润-1.25亿元至-8800万元，扣非净利润-1.42亿元至-9900万元。至此，公司连续五 年扣非净利润亏损，累计亏损金额将超过8.4亿元。 目前，金旺达在长三角、珠三角、京津冀设有研发与生产基地，其产品已经进入到新能源锂电、3C电 子、汽车制造装备、显示面板制造设备等行业头部企业的生产线。 作为发动机尾气后污染治理环保装备领域头部企业，凯龙高科则在汽车和环保装备领域已深耕25年。近 年来，凯龙高科战略布局智能制造赛道，加快主营业务产业升级。公司通过布局机器人以及具身智能机 器人核心零部件等相关业务，积极构建"核心零部件+检测设备+整机产品+场景应用"的完整布局，产业 升级战略加速推进。 因此，凯龙高科认为，通过本次收购，公司可快速获取精密传动功能部件的技术体系，成熟产能与优质 客户资源，在原有业务基础上增加精密传动功能部件业务，有助于凯龙高科完善机器人产业链布局，加 快产业升级战略落地的步伐，为培育新质生产力筑牢产业基础。 长江商报奔腾新闻记者注意到，对于凯龙高科而言，积极拓展新业务也 ...

如,来自青岛胶州的张女士结合多年基层经验,提出农村互助养老模式,为破解农村养老难题提供了接地 气、可持续的解决方案；在济南生活二十余载的胡先生则立足产业前沿,留言建议重点培育壮大新能源 汽车、高端装备、生物医药等产业。这些来自一线的声音,既承载着百姓的民生关切,又蕴含着产业升级 的智慧火花,成为活动中最鲜活的"民智样本"。 记者 张志远 邢振宇 温向前 济南报道 随着2026年山东省两会胜利闭幕,为期一个多月的"智汇齐鲁 强省有我——2026年山东省政府工作邀您 建言献策"活动圆满落下帷幕。这场以"集思广益谋发展,凝心聚力开新局"为主题的民智汇聚盛宴,为这个 冬日添上了浓墨重彩的一笔,画上了一个充满温情与期待的温暖句点。 今年是"十五五"开局之年,充分征求社会各界意见,广泛凝聚发展共识和智慧力量,对于起草好省政府工作 报告,谋深谋实重点工作,确保开好局、起好步十分重要。此次活动共设置"建设北方地区经济重要增长 极""加快建设绿色低碳高质量发展先行区""打造高水平对外开放新高地"等17个核心议题,覆盖经济、社 会、文化、生态和治理等多个维度,自2025年12月23日正式启动以来,广受社会各界关注和好评,广大网民 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - Russia's GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 1%, significantly lower than 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, primarily due to measures aimed at reducing inflation [1] - Cumulative growth over the past three years is reported at 9.7% [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Russia is expected to decrease to 5.6% in 2025, down from 9.5% in 2024, with a current annualized rate of 6.4% [3] - The Central Bank of Russia has adjusted the benchmark interest rate, peaking at 21% in early 2025 to curb inflation expectations, then gradually lowering it to 18% while maintaining a "moderately tight" stance [3][5] - The decline in inflation has created space for a more accommodative monetary policy, despite still being above the Central Bank's target of 4% [3] Economic Challenges - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted significant funding towards military sectors, limiting investments in production and technology, which hampers economic growth [4] - Long-term impacts of Western sanctions have led to technological blockades, restricting Russia's ability to upgrade its industries [5] - High borrowing costs, reduced demand, and increased military spending have contributed to a tightening fiscal situation [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Russia is projected to stagnate, indicating the end of a period of rapid growth driven by state spending and import substitution [6] - The government plans to increase the VAT rate from 20% to 22% starting in 2026, which is expected to impact consumer prices and inflation [7] Future Economic Prospects - The geopolitical uncertainty poses significant challenges for Russia's economic recovery, with energy export conditions deteriorating due to sanctions and falling oil prices [7] - Experts suggest that without resolution to the Ukraine conflict, continued investment decline and economic slowdown are likely [8] - However, there is potential for resilience in the Russian economy if significant progress is made in negotiations and increased funding is directed towards the business sector [8]

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 理性降温，风格暂回稳健 ——2026年2月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2026年2月5日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 | | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | --- | | | Ø | 美国劳动力延续疲弱，美联储短期或维持利率不变，缩表落地概率较低 美国劳动力市场疲软，通胀温和 | | | u | 12月新增非农人数走弱、前期数据下修，与失业率"虚低"并存，这共同指向劳动力市场状况正在仍在恶化。 | | | u | 12月通胀温和，反映了先前市场担忧的关税传导效应，其影响可能是"一次性"的。未来通胀更多取决于租房价格服务业和能源 | | 海外宏观 | | 价格，整体相对温和可控。 | | | Ø | 美联储短期或维持利率不变，缩表落地概率较低 | | | u | 美联储在1月FOMC会议上维持政策利率不变，且表态偏鹰。考虑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The green methanol industry is experiencing significant growth in 2026, marked by advancements across the entire supply chain, including shipping applications, port refueling, project approvals, and capacity expansion, with 25 notable developments indicating a robust acceleration in progress [2]. Application Side: Shipping Delivery and Port Refueling - In January, the first methanol dual-fuel 15,000 TEU container ship "Dafeng Kristal" was delivered in Dalian, China, capable of achieving over 90% lifecycle emissions reduction, meeting current maritime environmental standards [3]. - Shenzhen Port successfully completed its first international refueling of green methanol, supplying 200 tons of green methanol produced by CIMC Enric to the vessel "Kangnai" [3]. - The 8,500 DWT dual-phase stainless steel chemical tanker "Zhongran Green Energy 85" was launched, enhancing the green methanol refueling capacity in Shanghai and Ningbo [3]. Project Side: Major Projects and Capacity Expansion - Since January, numerous green methanol projects have been rapidly advancing across the country, with ongoing approvals, construction, and contracts, leading to simultaneous improvements in capacity and technology [4]. - In Inner Mongolia, several projects have been approved, including a 200,000-ton integrated green methanol project and a 320,000-ton/year green methanol technology upgrade project with an investment of 247 million yuan [5]. - The first phase of a wind-solar hydrogen integration project in Chifeng is approved for 150,000 tons/year of green methanol production, with a second phase planned for 350,000 tons/year [5]. International Developments - European startup Vioneo has shifted its focus to China, abandoning plans for a 300,000-ton/year green methanol project in Europe to invest in a similar project in China [8]. Collaboration Side: Industry Chain Synergy and Technological Innovation - The rapid development of the industry relies on collaboration across the supply chain, integrating resources and focusing on key areas such as green methanol preparation and core equipment [9]. - A pilot project for "kiloton-level biogas carbon-directed conversion to green methanol" achieved a methanol purity of 99.99% and received international green certification [9]. - A significant project in Tieling, Liaoning, with an investment of 5.25 billion yuan, aims to produce 240,000 tons of green methanol annually, alongside other products [9]. Summary of January Developments - January's breakthroughs illustrate the accelerated rise of the green methanol industry, with applications in shipping, substantial investment projects, and collaborative innovations, positioning green methanol as a key driver for energy transition and industrial upgrade [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and market predictions for 2026, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making amidst market noise [2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The new Federal Reserve chair is expected to initiate two interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026, with a possibility of a third cut later in the year, which will significantly alter global capital flows [6] - A weaker US dollar is anticipated, leading to a stronger Chinese yuan, with projections suggesting the yuan could surpass 6.5 against the dollar by 2026 [7] Group 2: Market Predictions - The A-share market is expected to experience a "balanced bull market" in 2026, driven by liquidity, profit improvements, and policy support [9] - Key sectors to watch include emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new displays, and biomedicine, which are set to receive policy and funding support [9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on "dividend assets" that provide stable returns and valuation recovery, particularly in sectors like banking, insurance, and energy [10] - The overarching investment strategy for 2026 is to align with liquidity easing, follow policy and industry trends, and maintain a balanced portfolio to navigate market fluctuations [11]

其间，山东省人民政府网、大众日报·大众新闻、齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点、齐鲁网·闪电新闻等主流媒体 平台架起"云端连心桥"，收到了来自省内外众多网友的宝贵建议。整体来看，网友留言的关注点呈现 出"以民生保障为核心，多元议题并存"的鲜明特征，大家对"十四五"时期山东经济社会发展的成就给予 了高度评价，对未来五年及今年工作作了深入思考，字字句句饱含着对齐鲁大地高质量发展的热切期 盼、信心底气和真知灼见。截至2026年1月31日，共有来自各行各业的10万+网民浏览了建言献策专 题，活动共征集到网民建议1000余条。 比如，来自青岛胶州的张女士结合多年基层经验，提出农村互助养老模式，为破解农村养老难题提 供了接地气、可持续的解决方案；在济南生活二十余载的胡先生立足产业前沿，留言建议重点培育壮大 新能源汽车、高端装备、生物医药等产业。这些来自一线的声音，既承载着百姓的民生关切，又蕴含着 产业升级的智慧火花，成为活动中最鲜活的"民智样本"。 "2026年山东省政府工作邀您建言献策"活动圆满落幕 39条建言直接融入政府工作报告 随着2026年山东省两会胜利闭幕，为期一个多月的"智汇齐鲁 强省有我——2026年山东省政府工作 邀您建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international capital market is optimistic about China's economic transformation and development prospects in 2026, with major foreign investment banks recommending increased allocations to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift towards a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Environment and Trends - In 2026, the investment focus is expected to be on "industrial innovation-driven + profit realization + resource supply-demand optimization," with emphasis on technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical recovery [2][16]. - The global economic landscape in 2025 showed resilient growth amid uncertainties, with emerging markets becoming the main growth engines, which, combined with China's policy support and industrial upgrades, creates structural opportunities in the capital market [3][4]. - The investment environment is anticipated to shift from single valuation recovery to a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Inflows and Funding Sources - The most certain source of incremental capital in 2026 is expected to be insurance funds, with foreign capital gradually shifting from trading to allocation, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [2][7]. - Resident savings represent a significant potential slow variable, with some funds expected to migrate to equity markets through wealth management and public funds [2][7]. - The structure of incremental capital in 2026 is likely to be characterized by "multiple channels, low volatility, and long cycles," with insurance funds, foreign capital, and resident savings being the main contributors [7]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities and Focus Areas - The technology sector remains the main line of industry allocation, with a focus on the performance visibility and elasticity of computing infrastructure and key hardware being higher than that of application layers [8][10]. - High-end manufacturing and advanced industrial systems are expected to continue benefiting from manufacturing upgrades, while energy transition and new power systems are also important directions for investment [10]. - Industries related to resource security and supply chain safety, such as non-ferrous metals and key materials, are anticipated to have stable medium- to long-term demand support [10]. Group 4: Risk Assessment and Market Dynamics - The evolution of risks related to real estate and local government debt is transitioning from "emergency response" to "long-term management," while external demand uncertainty is identified as the most significant variable affecting the market in 2026 [5][6]. - The core of external demand uncertainty lies in the unpredictable external environment, which can directly disrupt domestic economic recovery and influence macro policy adjustments [6]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For balanced investors in 2026, an initial asset allocation recommendation is 55%-60% in stocks, 30%-35% in bonds, and 5%-10% in gold, focusing on capturing structural opportunities in hard technology, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical upgrades [12][13]. - Stocks should be the core allocation, while bonds can provide stability against market volatility, and gold should serve as a long-term strategic asset to hedge against geopolitical risks and external demand fluctuations [14][15].