7 月利率展望：震荡格局下波段为主，关注大会增量 20250703 摘要 6 月债市整体震荡，实债收益率小幅下降至 1.65%左右。央行超预期买 断式逆回购操作呵护流动性，中美关税谈判及地缘政治冲突影响市场情 绪。月末银行季末考核压力导致债市小幅震荡走弱，但整体略走牛。 央行两次买断式逆回购操作净投放超 2000 亿，一年期国债收益率下降 超 10 个基点至约 1.35%，期限利差扩大至 38 个基点左右，国债收益 率曲线呈现走陡态势。 预计 7 月 CPI 同比增速在 0 附近徘徊，猪肉价格继续下行，原油价格因 地缘冲突有所回升。核心 CPI 温和回升受五一假期影响，消费修复内生 动力有限，对 CPI 拉动作用较弱。 预计政府债将继续成为社融主要支撑力量，6 月政府债净供给超 1.6 万 亿，同比翻倍。企业工业利润 5 月快速回落至负区间，居民部门地产修 复情况不明确，票据利率偏小幅度表现不支持社融大幅提升。 5 月出口保持正增长 4.8%，受抢出口和转出口韧性支撑。若中美关税互 免期内外溢性影响不显著，东盟、印度、欧洲等主要出口国仍会形成支 撑。下半年出口增速可能转负，需关注中美关税互免期结束时美方态度 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 信用债ETF扩容，有何机会与风险？ 2025年7月信用债市场展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 2025.7.3 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 从宏观层面来看，7月信用债仍处于有利的市场环境中。 ◼ 关注供需新变化，信用债ETF扩容成亮点。 供给端来看，信用债供给总量难言改善，但结构变化初现，科创债发行放量。 ✓ 今年以来，信用债供给整体延续"城投债进入存量时代、产业债供给继续放量、二永供给偏弱"的格局； ✓ 政策推动下，科创债发行明显放量，但对信用债供给的"挤出影响"或大于"新增影响"。 理财和基金等机构负债端持续扩容，尤其是信用债ETF扩容成为重要增量资金，信用债需求或进一步改善。 ✓ 理财：跨季后理财规模或快速恢复和继续扩容，配信用债的力度较强； ✓ 基金：信用债ETF扩容持续带来市场增量资金，科创债ETF已获批、或快速落地，但需要关注前期抢配成分券行情过热可能带来的估值波动风险。 ◼ 当前各类信用债收益率整体处于2024年以来相对低位，信用利 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, questions the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the Fed's benchmark rate is "too high" [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - Yellen hints at the possibility of filling two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board next year, despite Jerome Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] Group 2 - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to pay federal obligations within the statutory limit since January, and once the tax and spending bill is signed into law, it is expected that the Treasury will increase the issuance of U.S. debt to replenish its cash reserves [3] - Yellen indicates that the debt management process is systematic but will consider unexpected circumstances, particularly in light of the two-year Treasury yield suggesting high overnight rates [3] - The next quarterly refinancing operation is scheduled for July 30, which typically announces adjustments to the issuance strategy [3]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

美国劳动力市场展现出强劲韧性。六月份美国就业增长连续第四个月超出预期，失业率进一步下降。这可能促使美联储在决定下一步利率行动时 采取更为谨慎的态度。 7月3日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示： 美国6月非农就业人口增加 14.7万人，预期 10.6万人，4月和5月非农就业人数合计上修1.6万人。 失业率 4.1%，预期 4.3%，前值 4.2%。 美国六月就业数据"爆表"：新增14.7万岗位远超预期，失业率骤降至4.1% 在昨日ADP就业数据意外录得负3.3万人的"爆冷表现后，市场普遍对今日的非农就业报告做好了最坏打算，甚至有传言称新增岗位可能跌破10 万，至9.6万人，远低于10.6万人的市场共识，引发了对"滞胀型衰退"的担忧。然而，事实再次证明ADP可能只是"虚晃一枪。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，上个月非农就业人数增加14.7万人，不仅大幅超出10.6万人的市场预期中值，也高于向上修正后的五月数据 （14.4万人）。其中，州和地方政府就业的显著增长是此次数据超出预期的主要驱动力。私人部门就业仅增加7.4万人，创下去年十月以来的最低 增幅，这主要归因于医疗保健行业的招聘放缓。 在媒体调查的79位经济学家中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its current stance is deemed correct in light of strong non-farm payroll data, which contrasts with recent weak economic indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Strong non-farm employment report indicates resilience in the labor market, overshadowing recent weak economic data [1] - Hard data is perceived as more reliable than soft data in the current economic context, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Market changes are leading to a flattening of the yield curve, which may continue as popular steepening trades are unwound [1] - The current market dynamics reflect a shift in investor sentiment and strategy in response to economic data [1]

美国国债期货价格跌至盘中低点，2年期至5年期国债收益率当日上涨超过10个基点。当日收益率普遍走 高6-10个基点，收益率曲线趋平，其中2s10s、5s30s利差分别收窄3个基点和4个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has increased by approximately 40 points, currently reported at 97.26 [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.261%, reflecting a decrease of 0.029 (-0.68%) [4][5] Group 2 - Spot gold has decreased by approximately $15, currently priced at $3334.40 per ounce [1]

美国非农就业数据公布后，美国国债2年期/10年期收益率曲线趋平，利差最新报45.9个基点，数据公布 前为49.1个基点。 ...

Group 1 - European government bond yields have slightly increased following the release of U.S. data [1] - The latest yield for Germany's 10-year government bonds is 2.598% [1]