Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]

FOMC decision. Photo by BeInCrypto The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September 16-17 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.  At this meeting, the US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 4%-4.25%, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran preferred to lower the Fed funds rate by 50 bps. Jerome Powell and Company Opted To Reduce Policy Rate in September The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the ...

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are unlikely to significantly impact the US dollar, as future developments in inflation and the job market will be more decisive for the Fed's future decisions [1] Group 1 - Analyst Antje Praefcke from Deutsche Bank suggests that the upcoming minutes may highlight divisions among policymakers, but this is not a new phenomenon [1] - The current government shutdown is causing delays in the release of official data, making it meaningless to react to past statements from Fed members until new information emerges [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak at $4036.98 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind the surge in gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December [1] - Traders are increasingly optimistic about gold reaching the $5000 mark, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold focuses on identifying entry points rather than predicting price peaks, maintaining a bullish outlook [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3983 and $3975, while resistance is noted at $4060-4070 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - U.S. crude oil prices are rebounding, supported by the American Petroleum Institute's inventory report, which showed a significant increase in crude oil stocks [4] - The report indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, with strong consumption of gasoline and distillates, providing support for oil prices [4] - The oil market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by upcoming EIA data and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term trend for oil prices is downward, with current trading showing a lack of strength in bullish movements [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $63.5-64.5 and support at $61.0-60.0 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market - The spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $4036.98 before trading around $4032.16 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind this surge, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December exceeding 80% [1] - Traders are now focusing on the next psychological level of $5000, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The current strategy for silver involves waiting for a pullback to support levels around $47 or $46.5 to initiate long positions, as the market has not yet reached these levels [3] - There is speculation on whether silver can rally and reach new highs following gold's recent performance, with support maintained around $47 [3] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - International crude oil has shown mixed performance, with a recent high of $62.2, but overall demand for a rebound is evident despite some fluctuations [4] - The strategy for crude oil remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $60 support level, with potential for further gains if prices stabilize above $62.5 [4]

Market Overview - Spot gold reached a historical high of $3977.25 per ounce before a slight pullback, with a favorable fundamental backdrop suggesting limited downside potential [1] - The US dollar has strengthened for two consecutive trading days, but expectations of two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year may limit the dollar's bullish momentum, supporting non-yielding gold [1] - Ongoing US government shutdown and escalating trade and geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold, further restricting price declines [1] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold maintains a bullish trend, with cautious trading advised due to potential for a significant corrective drop similar to the previous week [2] - Recent performance shows gold rising nearly 100 points from $3880 to $3976, approaching the $4000 mark [2] - Key support levels are identified at $3930 and $3900; a drop below $3900 could lead to a significant decline towards $3850 [4] Silver Market Insights - Silver has risen to $48.7, currently trading around $48.3, still within a bullish trend but at extreme highs [5] - The potential for silver to reach $49 or $50 remains, but caution is advised against chasing prices at current levels [5] - Key support for silver is at $46.5, with a focus on buying on dips [5] Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil experienced volatility, peaking around $62 and closing near $61.8, indicating a rebound demand despite some downward movement [6] - The outlook remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $60 support level, with potential for further gains if prices stabilize above $62.5 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by various market factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and central banks' increased gold purchases [2][4]. - Gold has shown extreme price movements, with a notable increase from 3880 to 3976, nearing the 4000 mark, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4]. - Caution is advised regarding potential corrections, as previous patterns suggest that after significant gains, a pullback may occur, particularly if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 2 - Silver has risen to 48.7, with expectations of reaching 49 or 50, but caution is warranted as it approaches resistance levels [5]. - The current price of silver is around 48.3, and a pullback is anticipated if it fails to maintain above 48.8 [5]. - Crude oil has shown volatility, with a recent high near 62, but it closed at 61.8, indicating a rebound demand despite some downward movement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by tangible market factors rather than speculation, making it a significant investment opportunity for those seeking long-term stability [1][5]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Geopolitical instability, particularly related to U.S. actions in Venezuela, has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, as individuals and businesses seek to protect their wealth during uncertain times [3]. - Ongoing issues with the U.S. government, including potential shutdowns and economic forecasts, have created a sense of urgency among investors to move their assets into gold, which is perceived as a more stable investment [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further drive gold prices up, as lower interest rates diminish the appeal of cash holdings, prompting a shift towards gold as a store of value [4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to approach gold investments with caution, particularly those looking for short-term gains, as gold prices can be volatile and chasing highs may lead to losses [4]. - For long-term investors, maintaining a position of 10% to 20% in gold as a hedge against market fluctuations is recommended, given the persistent factors supporting gold price increases [4]. - It is suggested that individuals avoid purchasing gold jewelry as an investment due to high markups and better alternatives like gold bars or ETFs, which offer a more straightforward investment without additional costs [4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices surged after opening today, breaking through $3920 per ounce before experiencing a slight pullback [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold opened at $3911.850, reaching a high of $3920.770 and a low of $3883.248, with a current increase of $26.190 or 0.67% [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to escalating geopolitical issues and the partial shutdown of the U.S. government [2] Group 2: U.S. Political and Economic Context - President Trump announced military actions against drug trafficking near Venezuela, which may influence market sentiments [3] - Over 300,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. face potential deportation due to a Supreme Court ruling favoring Trump, impacting immigration policies [4] - The U.S. government shutdown could result in a weekly GDP loss of $15 billion, affecting economic stability [5] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (94.6%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is showing signs reminiscent of 2015, with potential for significant price movements driven by similar economic conditions and investor behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, along with a data vacuum caused by the U.S. government shutdown, is creating a favorable environment for gold, similar to the pre-2015 conditions [1][2]. - Economic data disruptions, such as fluctuating employment figures, have historically influenced gold prices, as seen in 2015 when lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data led to a 2.3% increase in gold prices [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in investments in gold ETFs, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing a record inflow of 18.9 tons in a single day, echoing the asset reallocation trends of 2015 [4]. - Central bank gold purchases have shifted from retail-driven to strategic allocations, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, compared to less than 600 tons in 2015 [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current technical setup for gold shows a strong upward channel, with significant support around the $3835-$3840 range, indicating enhanced market resilience compared to 2015 [6]. - Silver's performance is positively correlated with gold, as evidenced by a 2.09% increase in silver prices, which could further bolster gold's upward momentum [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; a disappointing report could trigger a surge in gold prices similar to the events of November 2015 [8]. - Key price levels are crucial for short-term movements; a breakout above $3865 could lead to targets of $3900-$3950, while a drop below $3720 may signal a need for caution [8][10].