【消息面】 周五亚市早盘，黄金在逾两周低位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3250美元/盎司附近。金价周四下跌1.5%，盘中最低触及3202美元，为4月14日以来新 低，收报3238.3美元，贸易紧张局势缓和的信号打压黄金的避险买需，美元和美债收益率上涨，也对金价形成压制，同时市场还关注周五的美国 非农就业报告，以判断经济前景。 交易员现在关注的焦点是美国与贸易伙伴会达成怎样的协议，并关注何时在数据中看到预期的关税影响。 【5.2黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3283-3386美元附近空，止损3291美元，止盈看3250美元 2，黄金回落3330-3233美元附近多，止损3225美元，止盈看3265美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，黄金亚盘震荡下跌，晚间黄金大幅下跌至3202后触底反弹，收在3338.3美元，日线收下影阴线，截止当前，日线已连续3个交 易日收阴线，TRIX趋势指标死叉，KDJ指标高位死叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标快慢线在0轴上方死叉，绿色空头动能增量，日线走势依旧是 偏空。 2，2小时，黄金早间跌至3227美元后触底反弹，当前运行在3254美元附近 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the upcoming non-farm payroll report could be a crucial factor for gold prices to rebound to $3,500 per ounce, depending on the employment data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices fell to a two-week low due to increased risk appetite stemming from signs of easing trade tensions, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - A stronger US dollar has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Giovanni Staunovo from UBS indicated that market optimism regarding the US signing lower tariff agreements with other countries is affecting gold prices negatively [1] - A weak employment report is expected to bolster calls for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially allowing gold prices to rise in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - China's demand for gold surged recently, with significant inflows into gold ETFs leading to a brief peak in spot gold prices at $3,500 [1] - However, this demand quickly reversed, with Chinese investors liquidating positions before the Labor Day holiday, resulting in a 5% decline from historical highs in total holdings [2][8] - On April 22, Chinese investors increased their holdings by 1.2 million ounces, but subsequently sold nearly 1 million ounces, reversing the previous buying trend [3][5] Group 2 - The total holdings in China have decreased by approximately 5%, and the arbitrage space for paper gold has shrunk by $20 per ounce from its peak [8] - Recent price fluctuations in gold have been heavily influenced by Chinese market activity, particularly during the Asian trading hours, which can trigger trading signals for overseas commodity trading advisors [10] - A strong dollar and easing trade tensions have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with market confidence remaining unstable [12] Group 3 - Analysts noted that gold prices confirmed a break below a three-week upward channel, indicating potential further declines [13] - The relative strength index (RSI) is testing critical support levels, with the need for gold to maintain above the 21-day moving average at $3,230 to preserve bullish potential [13] - If gold fails to hold above this moving average, it may initiate a new downward trend, targeting psychological levels at $3,150 and subsequently the 50-day moving average at $3,081 [13]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3306, showing a consolidation trend after profit-taking due to easing trade tensions following U.S. President Trump's tariff policy changes [1][2]. - Short-term outlook suggests gold prices may remain within the range of $3260 to $3380, with potential for a breakout above $3500 if the Federal Reserve signals stronger rate cuts or if trade tensions escalate again [1][2]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3260 and $3268, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as these levels hold [4]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting market concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5][6]. - The oil market is facing downward pressure from rising inventories and potential OPEC+ production increases, with a bearish sentiment prevailing unless trade tensions ease or demand shows signs of recovery [5][6]. - Short-term trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $60.0 to $61.0 and support levels at $57.0 to $56.0 [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 1% on April 29, with spot gold falling to $3,317.25 per ounce, a decline of 0.81% after briefly dropping below the $3,300 mark [1] - The easing of trade tensions, particularly the U.S. government's softened stance on auto tariffs, has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and economic indicators [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Key economic indicators show concerning trends, with the consumer confidence index falling to a five-year low and job vacancies decreasing by 288,000 in March [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP forecast, predicting a contraction of 0.8% for the first quarter, indicating potential economic slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve officials are open to interest rate cuts if economic risks become apparent, but they prefer to assess the impact of trade policies on inflation and employment first [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping 2.84% to $59.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.48% to $63 per barrel, influenced by concerns over global demand due to trade tensions [5] - OPEC+ is considering increasing production, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the oil market amid declining demand forecasts [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 400,000 barrels, raising concerns about supply excess [7]

法国一季度经济微增，但仍面临贸易冲击 金十数据4月30日讯，法国经济在年初恢复了增长，但由于全球贸易紧张局势的影响，经济进入了一个 更加艰难的环境，增长动力不足。法国国家统计与经济研究所称，第一季度GDP较前三个月增长了 0.1%。增长完全得益于库存增加，而国内需求停滞不前，贸易也带来了负面影响。总体小幅增长符合 分析师的预期，但当前经济评估尚难反映特朗普关税影响，因为大部分关税是在4月2日才宣布的。美国 贸易威胁引发的动荡已迫使法国政府将今年增长预期从0.9%下调至0.7%，并推出更多支出削减以控制 预算赤字。此前因政治危机导致2025年财政措施推迟实施，加之潜在增税带来的不确定性，已对经济造 成干扰。一季度数据显示企业、家庭及公共部门投资全面下降，出口环比下降0.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.49, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.44. Revenue for the quarter was $21.5 billion, a 0.7% year-over-year decline but exceeding the forecast of $21.22 billion [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's domestic revenue increased by 1.4% to $14.46 billion, driven by growth in air freight, with a 4.5% increase in revenue per package, partially offsetting a decline in shipment volume [1]. - International revenue grew by 2.7%, with daily volume increasing by 7.1% [1]. - The adjusted operating profit margin for the quarter was 8.2%, while the supply chain solutions segment saw a revenue decline of 14.8% due to the divestiture of Coyote, with an operating margin of 1.7% and a non-GAAP adjusted margin of 3.6% [1]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The trade tensions have led many companies to delay spending, reducing demand for services and negatively impacting UPS's domestic performance, as indicated by the overall revenue decline in Q1 [2]. - The uncertainty in the business environment is highlighted by the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on imports, affecting the outlook of various companies, including UPS's competitors like FedEx [2]. - UPS has initiated several "business and operational changes" to adapt to lower volumes, including plans to reduce the number of packages provided by Amazon by more than half over the next 18 months [2].

印度三月经济报告：全球不确定因素，如贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险，可能会扰乱供应或导致价格上 涨，或两者兼而有之。 ...

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 ④【AMD8亿美元减值损失拖累业绩预期，汇丰下调目标价至70美元】尽管AMD有望达成一季度财务 目标，但美国人工智能芯片出口管制引发的8亿美元减值损失，正持续冲击其未来业绩展望。汇丰银行 最新研报将AMD目标价从90美元大幅下调至70美元，并重申"减持"评级。 ⑤【大摩：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场】摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson表示，美元走软 将支撑美国企业盈利，有助于美国股市跑赢全球其他市场。他指出，企业盈利成长波动性较小以及美国 企业被认为质量更高是支持这一观点的其他理由。 ⑥【特斯拉据称调整Semi量产计划，预计年底开始生产】据外媒，特斯拉Semi电动半挂卡车量产计划 有所调整，预计今年底开始生产，明年提速。报道称，其位于内华达州的新工厂已建成，正在部署生产 线。 ⑦【汇丰一季度税前利润下降25%，宣布30亿美元股票回购】汇丰控股周二公布，今年第一季度税前利 润下降25%至95亿美元，原因是计入了与加拿大和阿根廷的业务处置相关的一次性费用。该行还宣布了 一项30亿美元的股票回购计划。 ⑨【巴克莱下调2025年布油预测，因贸易紧张局势和OPEC+调整生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 28, the US imposed sanctions on three vessels suspected of transporting refined oil to the Houthi armed forces, and large - scale power outages in Europe affected crude oil processing. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, oil price volatility is expected to be high [1] - In May, the reduction of East - West arbitrage arrivals will support the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still exert pressure [2] - In May, asphalt refinery production is expected to increase, and the northern market demand is gradually releasing, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and there is room for further improvement in demand [2] - Near the May Day holiday, the downstream polyester yarn sales have a phased increase, and the polyester start - up load remains high before the holiday. However, there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets show different trends [2][3][4] - As of April 27, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased. The supply of rubber is advancing, and the downstream holiday days during the May Day holiday are more than last year, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - In May, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - In May, the demand for polyolefins is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by import tariffs, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The real - estate construction is entering the off - season, which affects the demand for PVC downstream products. The export may decline, and the PVC price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the basis weakening [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of crude oil futures declined. The US sanctions and European power outages affected the market. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, investors are advised to pay attention to risks and hold light positions [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures rose on Monday. The low - sulfur market is supported by the reduction of arbitrage arrivals, and the high - sulfur market is affected by power generation demand and raw material procurement [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Monday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually releasing but still has room for improvement [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester - related futures rose on Monday. The downstream sales had a phased increase, but there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the inventory and supply of different products vary [2][3][4] - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber - related futures showed different trends on Monday. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but the downstream holiday days increased, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin futures are in a volatile state. In May, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, and the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by tariffs [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed small changes. The real - estate off - season affects downstream demand, and the export may decline, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on April 29, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - Barclays Bank lowered its 2025 crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategy adjustments [10] - The US Treasury Department raised the estimate of the net borrowing scale for the second quarter to $514 billion, higher than the February estimate, due to the failure to raise the federal debt ceiling [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1主力合约价格**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2主力合约基差**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, from 2021 - 2025 [24][26][30] - **4.3跨期合约价差**: The report provides the price difference charts between different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [37][39][43] - **4.4跨品种价差**: The report shows the price difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external market, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [55][57][59] - **4.5生产利润**: The report presents the cash - flow and production - profit charts of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71]