1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四 WTI 与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602 以 444.7 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.7 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和 凝析油产量与 2024 年大致持平，约为 5.16 亿吨，即约 1032 万桶 | | | | /日。诺瓦克称，俄罗斯将继续以 OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石 | | | | 油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面成效显著。荷 | | | 原油 | 兰银行 ING 认为，2026 年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在 OPEC+ | 震荡 | | | 决定以快于预期的速度逐步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈 | | | | 余量在 2026 年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 | | | | OPEC 国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平 | | | | 衡表，预计到 2026 年将出现超过每日 200 万桶的过剩。进入假 | | | | 期，油价预计延续震 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.49 美元至 58.01 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.60 美元至 62.07 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.65%。SC2601 以 439.7 元/桶收盘，上涨 7.4 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.71%。海关统计数据显示，2025 年 11 月份，中国原 | | | | 油进口量为 5089.1 万吨，环比增加 5.2%，同比增加 4.9%；1-11 | | | | 月份，中国累计原油进口量为 5.22 亿吨，同比增 3.2%。从排名前 | | | | 三的进口来源国数量来看：进口俄罗斯原油 835.1 万吨，同比下 | | | | 降 3.4%；进口沙特阿拉伯原油 754.8 万吨，同比增加 8.4%；进口 | | | 原油 | 巴西原油 488.7 万吨，同比增加 31.5%。市场持续关注俄乌局势， | 震荡 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing multi - dimensional challenges. Geopolitical factors such as the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, along with the prominent contradiction of supply surplus during the off - season of demand, lead to the repeated and volatile operation of oil prices. All varieties in the energy and chemical sector are expected to show an oscillating trend [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. The WTI January contract closed down $0.86 at $57.60 per barrel, a 1.47% drop; the Brent February contract closed down $0.93 at $61.28 per barrel, a 1.49% drop; SC2601 closed at 435.6 yuan per barrel, down 5.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.27% decline. OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and both OPEC and IEA made adjustments to their supply and demand forecasts for next year. The oil market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2602 fell 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure, and it is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals will continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain low and oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate decreased. The winter storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and it is predicted that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.04% to 4664 yuan per ton; EG2601 fell 2.25% to 3599 yuan per ton. PX is expected to face pressure at the end of the year. TA prices are expected to decline with cost pressure, and ethylene glycol prices are under pressure with long - term inventory accumulation risks [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton; the NR main contract remained unchanged at 12270 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 10710 yuan per ton. The improvement of overseas production area weather, the impact of border conflicts on rubber tapping, and limited demand support led to a slight rebound in rubber futures prices [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the time may be postponed. Methanol prices have an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the repair of the basis [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on December 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the OPEC+ alliance slightly increased production in November, and maintained the forecast of relatively strong demand growth for next year. The production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 42.6 million barrels per day, and 43 million barrels per day for the whole year [12]. - The IEA lowered its forecast of the global oil supply surplus for next year for the first time since May. The global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 4.09 million barrels per day. The expected increase in global oil supply next year is 2.4 million barrels per day, and the expected increase in demand is 860,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. The EIA also raised the forecast of oil demand growth in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc [15][16]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external markets, fuel oil's high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc [63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [76][77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is under pressure and fluctuates repeatedly due to the possible peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI January contract closed down $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%; Brent January contract closed down $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%; SC2601 closed at 443 yuan per barrel, down 4.4 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.98%. OPEC+ may keep production unchanged, and India's crude oil imports from Russia will change. The oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.36% at 2491 yuan per ton; the low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed down 1.31% at 3015 yuan per ton. The supply in December may tighten, and the absolute prices of FU and LU remain weak for now [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan per ton. The spot market exerts pressure on the futures, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to remain loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.51% at 4656 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.28% at 3873 yuan per ton. The production and operation of the polyester industry have certain characteristics, and the prices of relevant products are expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed down 195 yuan per ton to 15125 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported [3][4]. - **Methanol**: The prices of related products are given. The supply at home and abroad changes, and the port inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][4][6]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the demand will weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The price may fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on November 25th and 24th, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc. [8]. 3.3 Market News - Multiple news media reported that Ukraine has reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace agreement, and President Zelensky may visit the US to finalize the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war [13]. - Kpler's preliminary data shows that India's crude oil imports from Russia in November will reach the highest level in five months [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [32][33][38]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][47][48]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and foreign markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62][65][67]. - **Production Profit**: It shows the production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [75][76][77].