Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the US Dollar this year, presenting a challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to balance currency stability and economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Swiss Franc Appreciation - Global geopolitical risks have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc being a primary target due to Switzerland's stable political environment and neutral status [3]. - The weakness of the US Dollar, driven by disappointing economic data and a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, has created favorable conditions for the Swiss Franc's appreciation [3]. - Switzerland's low inflation rate and a long-standing non-intervention policy provide a solid foundation for the Swiss Franc, making it an attractive choice for investors looking for stable currencies [3]. Group 2: Dilemma of Central Bank Intervention - The SNB faces a core contradiction where the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, while reflecting market confidence, could harm export competitiveness, particularly affecting manufacturing and tourism sectors [4]. - Traditional tools for currency intervention, such as direct market operations and interest rate adjustments, may have limited effectiveness in the current complex global liquidity environment [4]. - The timing and magnitude of intervention are critical considerations for the SNB, as premature or excessive actions could signal a lack of confidence in the economy, while delayed interventions may exacerbate exchange rate misalignments [4].

从黄金1小时图走势来看，日线级别维持多头强势震荡上行格局，翁老师建议日内继续以区间低多策略 为主。当前市场处于震荡整理阶段，短期存在技术性冲高回落压力。操作上翁富豪建议以短线多单为 主，重点把握顺势低多的交易逻辑。需重点关注上方3390-3400阻力区间，以及下方3340-3330支撑区 间。具体策略翁富豪建议回调至3348-3353区域可择机尝试多单。 周三（6月4日）国际金价上涨0.56%，主要受多重因素驱动。美国ISM非制造业PMI降至49.9、ADP就业 数据不及预期，拖累市场信心，资金涌入黄金避险，金价盘中触及3384.55美元/盎司。美元指数下跌 0.5%、10年期美债收益率回落，进一步支撑金价。特朗普政府将钢铁和铝关税提高一倍，加剧全球供 应链担忧，强化黄金避险属性。美联储9月降息概率升至77%，ADP数据和通胀压力强化降息预期。市 场聚焦6月6日非农报告，其结果将影响美联储政策预期及金价走势。欧洲央行决议、美国初请失业金人 数等也将持续影响黄金市场。 1.黄金建议回调3348-3353区域做多，止损在3340，短期看3365-3375，目标3400 操作策略： 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors [1][2]. Price Trends - On June 2, international gold prices surged past the key resistance level of $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,406 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase and the largest single-day gain in three weeks [1]. - Earlier in April, gold prices reached a historical high of $3,509 per ounce before dropping to $3,245 due to easing geopolitical tensions, followed by a recovery supported by central bank gold purchases and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1]. Market Influences - The sensitivity of gold prices is attributed to its status as a recognized safe-haven asset, closely linked to global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and global inflation trends [2]. - Major Wall Street firms have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and JPMorgan predicting that gold could reach $4,000 sooner than expected [2]. Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of retail investors participating in gold investments, driven by social media discussions and investment analysis videos, leading to a surge in interest [3]. - Some investors are resorting to high-risk financing methods, such as consumer loans and credit cards, to invest in gold, which poses significant financial risks if prices decline [3]. Investment Strategies - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold (bars, coins) and gold ETFs, with the latter offering lower costs and higher liquidity [3]. - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) has gained attention for its strong performance, and investors can also consider ETF-linked funds for similar investment benefits [4].

黄金周三（6月4日）早盘小幅上涨3361/3362附近后下跌，在下探3346附近后又快速上涨至3372/3373附近，随后受阻震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至3344/3343区域 后止跌反弹，美盘强势上涨至3384/3385区域，尾盘在3370上方震荡，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国经济数据疲软：美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的非制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）降至49.9，为2024年6月以来首次跌破50的荣枯线。ADP全国就 业报告显示，5月美国民间就业岗位仅增加3.7万个，远低于预期的11万个，创下两年多来的最小增幅。这些数据削弱了市场对美国经济持续增长的信心，推 动黄金作为避险资产的需求。 2、美元走弱与美债收益率回落：美元指数周三下跌0.5%，收报98.80，接近4月底的低点97.923。美国10年期国债收益率从近期高点4.629%回落至4.365%， 创下5月9日以来最低水平。美元和美债收益率的双双走弱，为黄金价格的短期反弹创造了有利条件。 1、日线级别：黄金日线呈现阴阳交替的态势，但整体偏向上涨。5 日均线与 10 日均线形成金叉，并且向上延伸，这为金价提供了均线支撑，使得黄金保持 震荡偏强的走 ...

纽约期金向上触及3400美元/盎司，日内涨0.68%。 黄金行情爆发中，一键布局买入黄金等避险资产>>> ...

6月2日，现货黄金跳空高开，重新站上3300美元关口。 上周五，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称6月4日起把进口钢铁关税提高至50%，贸易局势再度发生变化。 当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特 朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响，从下周起，美国进口钢铁 关税将从25%提高至50%。" 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12日，特朗普对所有进口至美 国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 贸易局势的动荡不安，使得市场的避险情绪迅速升温。投资者们纷纷将目光投向黄金这一传统的避险资产，寻求资产的安全港 湾。在此背景下，黄金市场也呈现出不同的走势。 从纽商所黄金期货主力合约的表现来看，5月该合约小幅下跌，跌幅约为0.11%。不过，若将时间轴拉长，今年以来国际金价的 累计涨幅却相当可观，达到了约25.5%。这一数据充分显示出，尽管短期内黄金价格可能会有所波动，但在全球经济不确定 ...

30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着，最新报价110.95元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手9.89%，成交7.56亿元。拉长时间看，截至6月3日，30年 国债ETF博时近1月日均成交23.01亿元。 2025年6月4日，国债期货午盘多数下跌。30年期主力合约跌0.09%报119.340元，10年期主力合约跌0.03%报108.635元，5年期主力合约跌0.02%报105.940元， 2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.366元。 截至6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.44%，指数债券型基金排名3/389，居于前0.77%。从收益能力看，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/5，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比为 64.29%，月盈利概率为70.00%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近6个月超越基准年化收益为0.29%。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council (WGC) is advocating for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to reconsider the classification of gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) due to significant market volatility observed this year [2][3] Group 1: Gold's Market Performance - Gold has demonstrated key characteristics necessary for HQLA qualification, maintaining a daily volatility of 0.027%, which is comparable to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The average bid-ask spread for gold is approximately 2.2 basis points, which is slightly wider than the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds at 1.8 basis points but narrower than the 30-year bonds at 3.3 basis points [3] - The average daily trading volume of gold in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) from November 2024 to April 2025 was $145 billion, surpassing the $143 billion for 7-10 year U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2: Regulatory Context - Currently, physical gold held in bank vaults is classified as a Level 1 asset, while gold held as collateral in clearing institutions is subject to a 20% haircut [2] - Non-physical gold, such as paper gold, is treated as a regular commodity and incurs an 85% stable funding requirement under the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) rules, with a zero available stable funding (ASF) ratio [2] Group 3: Investment Demand and Perception - Analysts believe that gold is experiencing renewed investor demand as a safe-haven asset amid rising global debt levels and inflation, which diminishes the attractiveness of bonds [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently questioned gold's role as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that a resurgence in gold investment demand could destabilize markets [4] - Despite the ECB's concerns, many analysts argue that gold markets remain liquid and relatively stable compared to other asset classes [5]

"过去，铂金是一个很火的贵金属，价格比黄金还贵，但自从黄金饰品爆火后，铂金饰品的需求相对较少，加之消费者现在都追求保值和投资需求，铂金 就没那么火了。"水贝金展广场一家铂金饰品店的工作人员表示，"水贝商家的嗅觉很灵敏，就像之前金包银饰品店越开越多，最近铂金价格开始变动后有 一些店开始囤货，后续要看价格的变化。" 记者也对现场几位消费者进行了采访，对方表示铂金回收的折价确实比黄金更大一些，但自己喜欢铂金的色泽，所以自用的需求高于投资。 而在一些社交平台上，铂金的讨论度明显升温，甚至有从黄金"转战"铂金的说法，不少铂金饰品的直播销售也吸引了不少关注。记者梳理发现，多数消费 者认为铂金价格已经"躺"了很多年，加之金价处于历史高位，所以将目光转向铂金。 世界铂金投资协会的数据显示，今年第一季度全球铂金总供应量同比下降10%，为45.3吨；需求端同比增长10%，达70.7吨；今年或连续第三年出现铂金 短缺，缺口达30吨。而在需求方面，全球铂金首饰和投资需求显著增长，首饰需求同比增长9%，投资需求则增至14.3吨。 铂金市场仍是"线下冷线上热"。 近段时间以来，黄金价格开启高位震荡行情。6月2日，国际金价创近三周以来新高 ...