| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8570 | 8570 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8390 | 32 | 0.38% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 148 | 180 | -32 | -17.78% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏9月 | 01+220 | 01+220 | 0 | 1 | | 仓单 | | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 9330 | 9280 | 50 | 0.54% | | 期价 | | P260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Macroeconomic influence is prominent, with an oscillating rebound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: High - level oscillation, narrowing spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The significant decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact [2][12]. - Soybean No.1: Rebound and oscillation, pay attention to the atmosphere in the soybean market [2][12]. - Corn: Oscillating operation [2][15]. - Sugar: Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production [2][19]. - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing of new crops [2][24]. - Eggs: Intense near - end game [2][30]. - Live pigs: Weakening expectations [2][32]. - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) or 30.53% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3970 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3968 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3050 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and the night - session closing price was 3056 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory also increased [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to China's lack of interest in US new - season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the expected 68% [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [14]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of C2509 was 2,265 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. The trading volume and positions of the corn market changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn port collection price was 2200 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.14 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 4450 tons from the previous 4590 tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,045 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the positions also decreased. The spot price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 20 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, with only rigid demand from spinning mills. The ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of Egg 2510 was 2,959 yuan/500 kg with a 0.37% increase, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of Egg 2601 was 3,384 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and the trading volume and positions increased [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The closing price of Live Pig 2511 was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed [34]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farms significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and small - scale farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts. The purchase sentiment for piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. The support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 7,970 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of PK511 was 7,790 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the trading volume increased while the positions decreased [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian area was around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of large peanuts in Kaifeng area was around 4.0 - 4.15 yuan/jin. The weather cleared, the dryness of peanuts improved, the supply increased, but the inquiry and purchase decreased. New peanuts in Inner Mongolia are expected to be listed sporadically in about a week [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs) are rated as "volatile" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Corn: The futures price continues to rise, but the spot price is expected to be weak before the new grain is listed. The 11 - month contract shows a five - consecutive - yang pattern. It is recommended to maintain a volatile mindset before the new grain is listed [2] - Soybean Meal: The domestic two - meal futures prices rise to repair the deviation. The market has a divergence on whether there will be a shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The price is mainly volatile, and short - term long positions are recommended [2] - Oils: The domestic three major vegetable oils are volatile due to the lack of external market guidance. The basis is rising steadily. With the start of school, the market expects the demand to improve. Short - term trading is recommended [2] - Eggs: The spot price is weakly volatile, and the futures price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Pigs: The futures price rebounds slightly, and the spot price rises. The fundamentals and market sentiment change little, and the price is expected to be volatile [3] Market Information - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills from August 22 - 29 was 2430000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 160000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 370000 tons, 410000 tons higher than the average of the same period in the past three years [3] - The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in August was about 10000000 tons, at a historical high. The import volume of soybeans in September is still high, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 9500000 tons [4] - On August 29, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipments was - 111 to - 127 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 45 to - 29 yuan/ton. The procurement of soybeans for October shipments is nearly completed, while that for November to January next year is scarce [4] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1421486 metric tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc [6][7] Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc [14][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current soybean fundamentals have no significant changes. The Profarmer's survey shows that this year's US soybean growth is good, matching the USDA's reported record - high yield. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and supply is relatively loose with high future soybean arrivals. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations remains uncertain [3] - For the corn market, the supply is becoming more abundant with decreasing trade inventory in the Northeast and new corn listings. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and overall demand is lackluster [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin soybean meal was 3050 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 2960 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and Guangdong was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). Fujian rapeseed meal was 2580 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [1] - Arrivals: In September 2025, domestic full - sample oil mills' soybean arrivals are estimated at about 1030.25 tons [2] - Transactions: On August 27, 2025, the total soybean meal transaction of major oil mills was 9.20 tons, a decrease of 2.79 tons from the previous day. Spot transactions were 6.70 tons (up 1.01 tons), and forward - month basis transactions were 2.50 tons (down 3.80 tons) [2] - Operation Rate: The current national dynamic full - sample oil mill operation rate is 67.81%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous day [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2185 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.97%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2493 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.89%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jilin corn starch was 2660 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Exports: Brazil is expected to export 780 tons of corn in August 2025, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The US soybean growth is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. Future soybean arrivals are high, and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is uncertain [3] - Corn: The supply in the domestic market is increasing, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, resulting in insufficient upward price momentum [5] 4. Strategies - Soybean Meal: Neutral strategy [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish strategy [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views - Apple: With low remaining inventory in production areas and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year, the apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. The market is concerned about the growth of late - maturing Fuji due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples [1][2][3]. - Red dates: Since new jujubes entered the critical flowering and fruit - setting period in June, the market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season production cut. There is a large divergence in the expected new - season output. The market is sensitive to weather changes in production areas. The short - term price may rise due to capital sentiment, but if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak under high inventory pressure [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8414 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan/ton (+1.64%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - maturing Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi - commercial late - maturing Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 914 in Shandong and AP10 + 586 in Shaanxi both decreased by 136 from the previous day [1]. - Market information: In Shaanxi, early - maturing paper - bag Gala is in the middle - late stage, with a low proportion of good - quality fruits and a polarized price. In Shandong, varieties like Luli, Jinduhong, and Cream Huashuo are being traded in small quantities, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is okay. The market for stored Fuji apples is stable and dull, with some farmers and holders starting to sell at discounted prices [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. Due to the low proportion of good - quality Gala in the western production areas and the general quality of Shaanxi Gala, concerns about the quality of late - maturing Fuji have increased. The early - maturing fruit market shows a polarized trend, and the stored fruit market is weak. With the low inventory level, the price of stored fruit is supported. The supply of early - maturing apples in northern Shaanxi and Gansu this week may further squeeze the market for stored fruit. It is expected that the price of stored fruit will remain weak in the short term [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Given the low inventory and little change in the expected new - season output, the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11470 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1870 decreased by 110 from the previous day [4]. - Market information: In Xinjiang, gray jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and weather prevention is crucial. In the Hebei Cui'erzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates and 4 trucks of walnuts arrived. The price of walnuts decreased to 20.00 yuan/kg. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 3 trucks of red dates arrived, and the morning trading was average [4][5]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales areas has decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market is general, showing a weak - balance pattern. The inventory at sample points has decreased, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down. In the production areas, the fruit - setting of the first - batch flowers in some orchards was average, but the second - and third - batch flowers had better fruit - setting due to temperature drops and rainfall in early July. In August, strong winds in some areas caused some fruit drops. In the sales areas, the spot price is strong, and the trading atmosphere has improved [6]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The price may rise in the short term due to capital sentiment when the production cut cannot be disproven. However, considering the high inventory of old jujubes, if the production cut is less than expected, the price may turn weak [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: No new fundamental drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans are stable, and Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2][13] - Soybean: Oscillating [2][15] - Corn: Moving in an oscillatory manner [2][17] - Sugar: Trading in a narrow range [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to the new crop situation, with the futures price oscillating strongly [2][25] - Eggs: Weak sentiment in the distant end [2][29] - Hogs: New delivery warehouses are announced, leading to a near - month basis market [2][31] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][35] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures had a daytime closing price of 9,344 yuan/ton (-0.87%) and a night - time closing price of 9,354 yuan/ton (0.11%); soybean oil futures had a daytime closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-0.26%) and a night - time closing price of 8,352 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the week of August 26, about 11% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% the previous week and 11% last year. The estimated U.S. soybean crush in July 2025 is 621.8 million short tons or 2072 million bushels, a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. Brazilian state of Paraná is expected to increase its 2025/26 soybean planting area by 1% and production by 4% [6][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [12] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton (-0.20%) during the day and 3037 yuan/ton (-0.30%) at night; CBOT soybean 11 was at 1048.25 cents/bushel (+0.00%) [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 28, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results. As of the week of August 21, 2024/25 U.S. soybean net sales decreased by 189,200 tons, while 2025/26 net sales were 1,372,600 tons, a new high for the year [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [16] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,260 yuan/ton (+10); C2509 closed at 2,245 yuan/ton (1.45%) during the day and 2,240 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices increased slightly, while North China's corn prices decreased. New - season corn in Xinjiang is priced at 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The original sugar price was 16.5 cents/pound (+0.06), the mainstream spot price was 5950 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main contract price was 5602 yuan/ton (-18) [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon precipitation has decreased. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July (+320,000 tons). CAOC estimates domestic sugar production and consumption for 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimates a 24/25 global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons [21][22][23] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton (-0.04%) during the day and 14270 yuan/ton (1.42%) at night; ICE cotton futures rose slightly [25] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market's trading slowed down. U.S. cotton's weekly export sales data was average, with a net increase of 179,300 bales in the 25/26 year as of August 21 [25][26] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2509 closed at 2,843 yuan/500 kilograms (-2.27%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,310 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.66%) [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29] 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton (0); Hog 2509 closed at 13,300 yuan/ton (-145) [31] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, supply pressure is difficult to reverse in the near term. The 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered. The storage policy has been implemented, and the 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [33] - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [32] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 7,700 yuan/ton (-200); PK510 closed at 8,016 yuan/ton (-0.47%) [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas in Henan, the trading improved, and most areas' prices were stable or slightly stronger. New peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [36] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs to be tested. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the sugar price is likely to continue to fall, while the cotton price may have upward momentum in the short - term. The egg market is in a negative cycle of oversupply, and the pig market follows a range - bound trading idea [3][5][10][13][16][18][20] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, while domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 0 - 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.51 days. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.5283 million tons are expected to be crushed. The soybean inventory decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level [3] - **Weather and Output**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next week, and it has been dry in August. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean output has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal market will start to reduce inventory in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the high end [5] Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, and the production first increased and then decreased. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons. In the fourth quarter, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline seasonally, and India's pre - Diwali restocking demand will support the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft may suppress soybean oil exports, and the potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10] Sugar - **Key Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high this season, and the northern hemisphere's main producing countries may also increase production in the new season [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - **Key Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 54% [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum [16] Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few slightly adjusted. The supply was normal, the downstream sales were slow, and the trade - link inventory increased slightly [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market's negative cycle of oversupply has not been broken. It is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the egg price. From the perspective of capital game, it is not advisable to short excessively, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [18] Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable. The northern large - scale farms' slaughter decreased, and the demand increased, while the supply and demand in the south both increased [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures logic is to relieve pressure due to oversupply. The short - term market is range - bound. The long - term spread inversion strategy continues [20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The corn market is in a state of shock. The spot price is weak, the supply is diverse, the downstream procurement intention is weak, and the new - grain listing pressure affects the futures price. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the 11 - month contract at the 2150 integer mark [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is volatile. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is under selling pressure. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market is in a state of shock. Weak demand currently restricts the upward movement, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is in a state of shock. The futures price continues to decline, while the spot price rebounds. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of shock. The futures price is weakly volatile, and the spot price varies in different regions. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the main 2511 contract of corn increased in positions and rose slightly. The spot price is weak, with prices in Northeast China moving closer to new - grain prices and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the enterprise prices have been slightly adjusted downwards. The supply in the market is diverse, and the downstream procurement intention is weak. The futures price is affected by the new - grain listing pressure, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2150 integer mark of the 11 - month contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The domestic soybean meal increased in positions and declined, with large selling pressure. The state - reserve will sell 16.4 tons of soybeans on the 29th, and the expectation of Sino - US talks has alleviated the market's concerns about long - term supply, putting pressure on the Dalian soybean meal. The futures decline exceeds the spot decline, and the basis strengthens. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose last week, but weak demand limited the increase. The import of palm oil in the EU is lower than the same period last year, reflecting weak demand. The Canadian rapeseed price has declined, and the market is waiting for the crop report. Domestic vegetable oils have declined, affected by the general decline of commodities and the weakness of the surrounding market. The demand is currently weak, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The market is in a long - term upward trend. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to decline. The main 2510 contract closed down 1.26%, and the near - month 2509 contract fluctuated at a low level, closing down 0.69%. The spot price has rebounded. Terminal markets purchase as they sell, and the procurement before the start of school is relatively active. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but considering the supply - side pressure, the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: On Wednesday, the hog futures were weakly volatile. The main 2511 contract closed down 0.83%. The spot price varies in different regions. In the north, the terminal demand has slightly increased, and the pig price has risen slightly in some areas; in the south, large - scale farms have increased their sales, and the pig price has generally declined. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has sent 8 working groups to 18 provinces for centralized research and guidance on autumn grain production and disaster prevention and mitigation, covering four aspects: field management, disaster prevention and mitigation, yield improvement, and "one - spray multi - promotion" [3]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 is 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase compared to the same period last month [3]. - Analysts expect Australia's wheat production to reach 32 - 35 million tons, and the estimate may be further raised. This will increase the global wheat supply [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean meal, oils and fats, eggs, and hogs, but no specific spread or basis data analysis is provided [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][24]. Introduction of the Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her contact information is provided [26]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - The current soybean fundamentals have no significant changes. The Profarmer's survey shows good growth of US soybeans this year, in line with the USDA's highest - ever yield estimate. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and future supply is expected to be abundant. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, the supply in China is becoming more relaxed with decreasing trade inventory in the Northeast and upcoming new corn harvests. The demand is weak, and price upward momentum is insufficient [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of soybean meal 2601 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2501 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian export forecasts: In August, soybean exports are expected to be 890 million tons (down from 894 million tons last week), soybean meal exports 213 million tons (down from 233 million tons), and corn exports 780 million tons (down from 805 million tons) [1] Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean growth is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. Future soybean arrivals are expected to be high, and there is room for inventory growth. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain [2] Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of corn 2511 contract was 2164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.28%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2471 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.16%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [3] - Brazilian and Ukrainian news: As of August 23, Brazil's second - season corn harvest progress was 94.8%. As of August 25, Ukraine's 2025/26 grain exports were 353 million tons [3] Market Analysis for Corn - In China, the supply is becoming more relaxed with decreasing trade inventory in the Northeast and upcoming new corn harvests. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is weak, and feed enterprises mainly use inventory [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the apple and red date industries are neutral [4][8] Report Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently has no significant contradictions in its fundamentals. With low remaining inventory in the origin and little change expected in the new season's production compared to last year, short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [4] - In the red date market, there is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production. The market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season production cut since June. Under the condition that the production cut cannot be disproven, the futures price may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8278 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan/ton or 1.90% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP10 - 778 in Shandong and AP10 + 722 in Shaanxi both decreased by 154 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In Shaanxi, the early - maturing paper - bag Gala is in the middle - to - late stage, with a low proportion of high - quality goods. The price of ordinary goods is chaotic. In Shandong, the trading atmosphere of inventory apples is not strong, with some fruit farmers offering price cuts. The large - sized fruit has poor demand. In the Guangdong wholesale market, the number of apple trucks has increased, but the terminal sales are slow, with high - quality goods selling better than low - quality ones [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The remaining Gala apples in the western region have uneven quality and chaotic prices. The inventory has a high proportion of large - sized fruit, and the sales are slow. The overall trend of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apples are running weakly. The low inventory level supports the price of inventory apples. With the concentrated supply of Gala apples in northern Shaanxi and Gansu this week, the inventory apples are expected to remain stable but weak in the short term [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Given the low inventory and stable new - season production expectations, short - term prices are expected to be stable. Follow - up attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [4] Red Date Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1760 increased by 50 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the sugar - accumulating stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on quality. In the Hebei and Guangdong markets, the arrival of red dates is relatively small, and merchants purchase according to demand, with general trading volume [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales areas has decreased, and merchants purchase on - demand, resulting in general trading in the downstream market. The market has high sensitivity to weather changes in the production areas. There is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. In the short term, the futures price may rise due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [8]