Core Insights - The "CCTV Finance Excavator Index" indicates steady progress in infrastructure construction in China during April, with a notable increase in road construction and high operating rates for road equipment [1] Group 1: Overall Construction Activity - In April, 15 provinces in China reported a month-on-month increase in comprehensive operating rates, with six provinces showing an increase of over 10% [6] - The comprehensive operating rate in the Northeast region reached 61.13%, leading the country, with excavator operating rates at 69.25% [28] - The comprehensive operating rate in the Central region was 55.62%, with pile-driving equipment operating rates at 42.77%, the highest in the nation [29] Group 2: Regional Highlights - The Western region's port equipment operating rate was 43.04%, the highest among all regions, reflecting a 1.34% month-on-month increase [12][27] - The Eastern region's comprehensive operating rate was 47.91%, with concrete equipment operating rates at 47.20%, also the highest in its category [32] - In April, the Central region's equipment manufacturing sector accelerated due to advancements in high-tech industries like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [29] Group 3: Equipment Performance - Road equipment operating rates increased by 7.20% in April, with specific increases of 11.05% for pavers and 5.59% for rollers [9][25] - The Northeast region led in various equipment categories, with the crawler crane operating rate at 73.08% and the pile driver rate at 55.07% [28][30] - The Central region saw significant growth in specific equipment, with the tower crane workload increasing by 131.45% year-on-year [29]

工业增速或高位放缓 参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对4月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.62%，低于上月7.7%的公布 数据。 从先行指标来看，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，在连续2个 月运行在扩张区间后落入50%以下。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群分析认为，4月份PMI出现回落，且回到荣枯线之下，表明经 济底部回升态势仍有不稳定性。新订单指数、新出口订单指数出现明显回落，表明外部环境复杂变化引 起的需求收缩倾向有所显现，必须高度重视。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘预计，4月工业增加值将同比增长6.5%左右。高频数据显示，4月高 炉、焦化开工率同比提高2.7个、15.1个百分点，但水泥开工率同比下行0.2个百分点。此外，关税影响 下，当月出口亦有所放缓。 本周中美经贸会谈取得阶段性重大成果，随着外部冲击减缓，以及稳增长、促消费政策发力，政策效应 进一步释放，国内有效需求不足状况有望改善。 二季度以来，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，中国经济表现如何，备受市场关注。国家统计局将于5月19日发 布4月宏观经济数据。机构预计，对等关税对中国经济的影响将逐渐显现。 面对外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenghong Technology (300476) plans to invest up to RMB 3 billion in fixed and intangible asset purchases for the year 2025, which includes new factory construction, equipment procurement, and automation line upgrades [1] Investment Plan - The investment scope encompasses new factory and engineering construction, equipment acquisition, and upgrades to automated production lines [1] - As of the announcement date, the company and its subsidiaries have already invested a total of RMB 252 million [1] Strategic Implications - The implementation of this investment plan is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and provide a guarantee for sustainable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Under the dual policy support, state-owned sector investment growth reached 6.5%, with actual growth estimated to exceed 8% after price factors are deducted, significantly supporting investment growth and the economic foundation amid declining real estate development investment and stagnant private investment [1][3][4]. Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 103,174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. After accounting for a 2.3% decline in PPI, the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment was approximately 6.5%, surpassing GDP growth by about 1 percentage point [4][5]. - Private fixed asset investment grew by only 0.4% in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022. Manufacturing private investment increased by 9.7%, while infrastructure private investment rose by 9.3% [2][7]. Sector Analysis - The first industry saw an investment of 2,081 billion yuan, growing by 16.0%, while the second industry investment was 36,141 billion yuan, increasing by 11.9%. The third industry investment was 64,952 billion yuan, with a marginal growth of 0.1%, indicating a significant decline in private investment in real estate [8][13]. - The decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% in Q1 2025, has heavily impacted private investment growth, with estimates suggesting that the decline in private real estate investment is even more pronounced [2][22]. Regional Investment Performance - Investment growth varied by region, with the northeastern region showing a growth of 9.7%, primarily driven by state-owned sector investment. The eastern region grew by 2.2%, while the central and western regions saw growth rates of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively [9][20]. Legislative Impact - The passing of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" on April 30, 2025, aims to support private economic organizations in participating in major national strategies and projects, potentially leading to a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [3][21].

Group 1: Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, private investment grew by 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022, primarily impacted by a decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% [1][7] - Excluding real estate development, private investment increased by 6.0% in Q1 2025, while national fixed asset investment reached 103,174 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [1][3] - The share of private investment in national fixed asset investment dropped to below 50% for the first time since 2012, with a recorded share of 50.1% in 2024 [1][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector private investment rose by 9.7%, continuing a trend of high growth since 2021, driven by factors such as export growth and supportive policies [1][7] - Infrastructure private investment also saw a significant increase of 9.3%, contrasting with a decline in private investment in the tertiary sector, which fell by 7.7% [1][6] - The first industry investment grew by 16.0%, while the second industry investment increased by 11.9%, indicating robust performance in these sectors [5][6] Group 3: Economic Contributions - Net exports contributed significantly to economic growth, increasing by 50.4% and accounting for nearly 40% of GDP growth, despite a 6.0% decline in imports [2][4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy supported a 4.6% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, highlighting the potential for further consumption growth [2][3] - State-owned investment grew by 6.5%, helping to stabilize overall investment growth amid declining private investment and real estate development [2][5] Group 4: Legislative Support - The newly passed Private Economy Promotion Law aims to enhance private investment by encouraging participation in national strategies and major projects, effective from May 20, 2025 [2][7] - The law is expected to support a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [2][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Investment - Since April, domestic macro policies have accelerated implementation to address external uncertainties, with local governments issuing 10,665 billion yuan in new special bonds, achieving 24.2% of this year's target, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 2025 government work report sets macro policy goals including a new special bond issuance of 44,000 billion yuan, an increase of 5,000 billion yuan from last year, and a fiscal deficit rate raised to 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 16,000 billion yuan from last year [1] - Major economic indicators show signs of stabilization and recovery, with fixed asset investment reaching 103,174 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and private fixed asset investment growing by 0.4% [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Current weekly apparent demand for rebar has recovered to 2.738 million tons, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline, supported by increased infrastructure investment and a gradual reduction in real estate investment decline [2] - Steel mills are experiencing improved operating conditions, with short-process electric arc furnace utilization rates rising to 56.3%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Rebar weekly production has increased to 2.292 million tons, up by 113,000 tons year-on-year, indicating high production levels during the traditional peak season in May and June, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Outlook - Rebar total inventory has decreased to 7.33 million tons, down by 860,000 tons from the end of March and 2.15 million tons year-on-year, indicating a low inventory level historically [3] - Despite some downward pressure on rebar demand, expectations of reduced crude steel production and relatively low price valuations suggest a potential for a phase of price rebound after a bottoming out [3]

Core Insights - The China National Railway Group (referred to as "the company") reported a revenue of 1,283 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 3.0% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 39 billion yuan. For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 281.4 billion yuan [2] Passenger Transport - In 2024, the company sent 4.31 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with a single-day peak of 21.448 million passengers, both setting historical records. In the first quarter of 2025, the company completed the transportation service guarantee tasks for the Spring Festival, Winter Olympics, and the National Two Sessions, sending 1.074 billion passengers, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, also a historical high for the same period [2] Freight Transport - The company completed a total freight volume of 3.99 billion tons in 2024, a 1.9% year-on-year increase, achieving growth for eight consecutive years. In the first quarter of 2025, the company accelerated the development of a modern logistics system, with a total freight volume of 970 million tons, a 3.1% year-on-year increase [2] Investment - In 2024, the company completed fixed asset investments of 850.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and put into operation 3,113 kilometers of new lines, including 2,457 kilometers of high-speed rail. By the end of 2024, the total railway operating mileage reached 162,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for 48,000 kilometers. In the first quarter of 2025, the company focused on key national projects and completed fixed asset investments of 131.2 billion yuan, a 5.2% year-on-year increase [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total transportation revenue of 990.1 billion yuan in 2024, with total profits reaching a historical high. By the end of 2024, the company's asset-liability ratio was 63.51%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points from the previous year, indicating significant progress in high-quality development [3]

报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangmen's GDP reached 91.723 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [2][6] - Jiangmen's GDP growth rate is lower than the provincial average of 4.1% [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 5.238 billion yuan, growing by 0.1% [2] - The secondary industry added value was 37.980 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.7% [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 48.505 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.3% [2] Trade Performance - Jiangmen's total import and export volume in the first quarter was 47.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.1% [4] - The export volume was 40.44 billion yuan, increasing by 13.2% [4] County-Level GDP - Xinhui led the city with a GDP of 22.834 billion yuan, while Heshan showed the highest growth rate at 4% [5][7] - Other counties ranked by GDP include Pengjiang (21.361 billion yuan), Taishan (11.815 billion yuan), and Kaiping (10.978 billion yuan) [5][7] Industrial Growth - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 13.891 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.9% [8] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 3.4%, with manufacturing increasing by 4.7% [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 21.7% year-on-year [9] - The decline in investment was observed across all sectors, with the primary industry down by 36% and the secondary industry down by 26.1% [9] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 30.796 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% [10] - Urban retail sales grew by 1.7%, while rural retail sales increased by 2.1% [10]