Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in Asian currencies, particularly the South Korean won and the Japanese yen, against the US dollar, driven by expectations of US pressure on countries with trade deficits to appreciate their currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - On May 14, the South Korean won appreciated by 2% against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen also saw an increase, reaching a level of 145.70 yen per dollar, indicating a significant shift in the currency market [1]. - The South Korean won traded at approximately 1380 won per dollar, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous day, influenced by reports of US-Korea trade discussions that included currency issues [1][3]. Group 2: US Trade Negotiations - The article highlights that the US is expected to exert pressure on Asian countries with trade deficits to appreciate their currencies, a sentiment that has been echoed in previous trade negotiations [3][4]. - The US government's stance, as articulated by economic advisors, suggests that a weaker dollar could enhance the competitiveness of American manufacturing, although there are conflicting reports regarding the actual intent to devalue the dollar [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Taiwanese dollar appreciated by approximately 10% against the US dollar during early May, attributed to speculation that the US was pressuring Taiwan to strengthen its currency amid trade talks [3]. - Asian investors have increased their exposure to US assets without hedging against currency risks, leading to heightened volatility in the currency markets [3]. Group 4: Future Expectations - There is a prevailing expectation that currency volatility will increase in the short term, with market analysts suggesting that the US dollar is overvalued based on purchasing power parity [4]. - Discussions at the upcoming G7 meeting regarding currency issues are anticipated to further influence market sentiments and currency valuations [4].

多重极端因素累加，美元势将走向长期贬值！ 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行在最新研报中称，在市场经历了为期六周的动荡期后，尽管关税前景趋于温和，但对美元前景的看法仍保持长期看跌立 场。 报告指出，最近的政策和市场波动可能已经足够令人担忧，促使投资者重新考虑在美国的投资。这本身对美元来说并不是一个大问题，但当前的极端估值 和仓位使美元特别容易受到冲击。 此外，德意志银行还指出，财政政策变化可能导致德国发债规模扩大，改变美债在全球安全资产中的主导地位。这也不利于美元的走势。 极端估值、仓位、财政政策变化=美元长期贬值 报告指出，美元估值已处于历史极端水平。数据显示，美元已连续三年相对购买力平价(PPP)高估超过20%，这在历史上前所未有。 与此同时，美国经常账户赤字正在扩大，进一步加剧了对美元高估的担忧。 报告还强调，美国股票估值相比全球其他市场也达到了历史高点，几个月前的市盈率溢价高达60%。 数据还显示，外国投资者对美股的持仓已经超过历史平均水平。 最后，德意志银行的研究显示，由于美国发债规模大且量化宽松(QE)力度小于欧洲央行，美国提供了远超欧元区的安全政府债券供应量，实际上是欧元区 的三倍以上。 这为全球投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of a meeting between South Korean and U.S. officials regarding the exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar, suggesting potential shifts in currency policy that could lead to a weaker dollar and stronger won [1][2][6]. Group 1: Meeting Details - South Korean Deputy Finance Minister Choi Ji-young met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Robert Kaproth on May 5 during the 58th Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Milan to discuss the dollar-won market [1]. - The meeting has sparked market speculation that the Trump administration may prioritize currency issues in upcoming trade negotiations [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of the meeting, the U.S. dollar fell, with the dollar-won exchange rate dropping 1.92% to 1396.77, marking a one-week low [3]. - The Korean won has appreciated approximately 5% against the dollar this year amid a generally weak dollar environment [3]. Group 3: Currency Strategy Insights - Analysts suggest that the discussions between the U.S. and South Korea may indicate a shift in focus from trade to currency, potentially threatening the dollar's stability [7]. - There are concerns that the Trump administration may implement policies encouraging countries to sell dollars to address perceived economic imbalances caused by strong currencies [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The meeting reinforces previous comments by the Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong, who indicated that the rise of Asian currencies, including the won, is partly due to U.S. pressure for currency appreciation [8]. - Analysts believe that the discussions could act as a catalyst for further dollar selling, as they may lead to speculation about the inclusion of currency policy in bilateral trade negotiations [7].

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 第一，也是最重要的，中美关税和谈，远超市场预期，带来重大利空！上一轮黄金3167下跌2957后大涨3500美元，是得益于关税，当前下跌主要也是关税。 第二，特朗普政府强调，不会在关税谈判中寻求美元贬值；美元贬值是特朗普弱势美元政策，当前则180°转弯不寻求贬值。 第三，俄乌战争，印巴冲突，以色列与中东国家局势当前降温；美国与伊朗谈判传出缓和信号，智通财经5月15日电，伊朗准备与特朗普政府签署一项有条 件的核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。他表示，伊朗将承诺永不制造核武器，销毁其可用于武器化的高浓缩铀库存！ 第四，特朗普中东之行收获满满，分别与沙特，卡塔尔签署万亿美元级别贸易，有助于缓和关税紧张局势。 当前，三个不太确定性利多因素 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金波动率非常高，十几二十美元一会儿的事。单子入场，10-20美元利润轻松，30美元以上也很快；但是，赚了不跑回吐也很快，因为行情节奏太快，慢 一点就是几美元十几美元的波动。持仓就容易回吐或者打损，所以有利润后减仓或者调整止损就很有必要，随时做好获利平仓的准备。除非进到 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is reportedly not seeking a weaker dollar as part of trade negotiations, despite ongoing concerns about currency policies [1][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been actively communicating that the U.S. remains a "preferred destination" for global capital, aiming to dispel fears of a deliberate weak dollar policy [4][5] - The dollar index has declined nearly 8% this year, reflecting market apprehension regarding the U.S. administration's economic objectives [5] Group 2 - Significant fluctuations in Asian currencies, such as the South Korean won and Japanese yen, indicate heightened market anxiety over U.S. monetary policy [8] - Market participants are observing the situation closely, suggesting that the atmosphere indicates an implicit weakening of the dollar, regardless of official statements [8] - The volatility in currency markets may become a new norm as the Trump administration continues its global trade agenda, particularly affecting countries on the Treasury's monitoring list [8]

智通财经5月15日电，消息人士称，美国不会在贸易协议中寻求美元贬值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between the U.S. and South Korean governments regarding foreign exchange policy have raised market speculation about the Trump administration's potential acceptance of a weaker dollar, with currency issues expected to play a role in upcoming trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the news of the discussions, the dollar experienced a decline, with the USD/KRW exchange rate dropping nearly 2% to a one-week low, while the Korean won appreciated approximately 5% against the dollar this year [1][3]. - Concerns have emerged that the Trump administration may favor a weaker dollar, which could lead foreign governments to accept stronger local currencies to facilitate trade agreements with the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Danske Bank expressed that the news from the U.S.-Korea talks reinforces market fears regarding a potential weak dollar stance from the Trump administration [3]. - Bloomberg macro strategist noted that if the U.S. government shifts focus from trade to currency, the current consolidation of the dollar may be threatened, raising concerns about policies that could lead to dollar sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - South Korea, along with Japan and other regional countries, was placed on the U.S. Treasury's foreign exchange operations "monitoring list" in November last year, indicating ongoing scrutiny of currency practices [4]. - In late 2024, South Korea's purchase of won to prevent its appreciation against the weakening dollar was briefly impacted by emergency measures implemented by then-President Yoon Suk-yeol, which led to asset sell-offs in South Korea [4].

韩国或成为第一个承认"海湖庄园协议"的国家？ 据新华财经14日报道，一位韩国政府官员表示，韩国财政部副部长Choi Ji-young于5月5日会见了美国财政部负责国际金融事务的助理部长Robert Kaproth，双方就美元兑韩元市场进行了讨论。两人是在意大利米兰举行的第58届亚洲开发银行（ADB）年会期间会面的。 这引发了市场猜测，即特朗普政府可能倾向于美元走弱，并将汇率问题作为即将到来的贸易谈判的重要内容。 2024年末，随着美元上涨以及尹锡悦短暂实施戒严导致韩国资产抛售，韩国曾购买韩元以阻止其对美元的贬值。11月，韩国被美国财政部列入外 汇操作"监测名单"。 特朗普及其政府官员一直主张，亚洲货币对美元的疲软使区域出口商相对于美国竞争对手获得了不公平的优势。 丹麦银行分析师Mohamad Al-Saraf表示，美韩会谈消息"加强了市场对特朗普政府可能倾向于美元贬值立场的担忧"。 韩国财政部发言人证实了会议的举行，但拒绝提供进一步详情。 消息一出，美元应声下跌。美元兑韩元跌至一周低位，日内下跌1.92%至1396.77。包括日元在内的邻国货币也随之上涨。今年以来，在美元普遍 疲软的背景下，韩元兑美元汇率上涨 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index declined by 0.4%, with traders skeptical about the sustainability of the recent dollar gains despite easing trade tensions [1] - As of this week, nominal value of dollar short positions totaled approximately $61 billion, exceeding $55 billion in dollar long positions [1] - Optimism regarding a trade truce between the US and China led to the dollar's best performance since the US presidential election, rising by 1% on Monday [1] Group 2 - Many banks, including Nordea and Rabobank, believe that despite the recent rebound, the dollar will decline in the long term, raising their forecasts for the euro and yuan [5] - Deutsche Bank's global head of foreign exchange strategy expressed caution regarding US assets due to concentrated risks, despite a more conciliatory US policy direction [4] Group 3 - The options market remains bearish on the dollar, with a risk reversal indicating long-term bearish sentiment, although slightly lower than the previous week [7] - Macquarie Bank strategists noted that the damage from the April tariff turmoil will limit the dollar's gains, predicting a return to depreciation [7]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant portion of overseas investors' assets in the US that remain unhedged against currency fluctuations, leading to structural problems that cannot be ignored [1][3] - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated approximately 10% against the US Dollar (USD) on May 2 and May 5, with the latter date marking the highest increase in 37 years, driven by speculation that Taiwan agreed to currency appreciation in US trade negotiations [2] - Concerns about the "New Taiwan Dollar shock" have made many investors skeptical about the return of previously flowing overseas investment back to the US, despite a recent trade agreement between the US and the UK [1][3] Group 2 - The CIO of a New York-based macro hedge fund noted that investors who had not hedged against currency risks began to sell their US assets or engage in hedging transactions due to the sudden market expectations of USD depreciation and TWD appreciation [2] - High levels of investment in US assets from overseas regions, including Taiwan, have been observed over the past decade, but many of these investments have not been hedged against currency risks due to the recent trend of USD appreciation [2][3] - Concerns over unpredictable trade policies from the Trump administration are causing unease among overseas investors, which may lead to a shift of funds from the US to other countries, potentially contributing to a weaker USD [3]