摩根大通模型：一项关键股指显示美国经济衰退概率接近80% 智通财经4月9日电，摩根大通表示，与美国经济密切相关的股票消化的经济衰退概率已飙升至近80%。 与此同时，尽管资金压力可能加剧，但信用产品投资者仍保持乐观。根据摩根大通基于市场的经济衰退 指标仪表盘，在最近的抛售中遭受重创的罗素2000指数目前反映出的经济衰退可能性达79%。其他资产 类别也在发出警告：标普500指数显示经济衰退的可能性为62%，基本金属显示的概率为68%，5年期美 债对应的概率为54%。相比之下，投资级信用市场消化的经济衰退概率仅为25%，而去年11月时这一概 率为零。"作为一个更具周期性的指数，罗素2000应更能反映美国经济在周期中的位置，目前该指数消 化的平均程度经济衰退概率高达80%，"摩根大通策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou表示，"市场几乎100%消 化了温和衰退的情境。" ...

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 from 1.7% to 0.5%, citing risks from trade wars, tightening financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - JPMorgan has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 60%, predicting that the economy will enter a recession starting in June, with the weakest months occurring mid-year [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that unless the White House abandons its tariff plans or the Federal Reserve shows signs of easing, investors should prepare for further declines in the S&P 500 index [1] Trade Policy Impact - The implementation of high tariffs under Trump's administration may disrupt the profitability of many goods, forcing traders to explore other markets or significantly raise prices [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering legal action against the Trump administration regarding the tariff dispute, reflecting the concerns of its members about rising import costs and lost export markets [3][4] Industrial Growth - In the first two months of the year, 19 out of 27 cities with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan reported industrial growth rates surpassing the national average of 5.9% [5] - Cities like Xi'an, Hefei, and Yantai showed remarkable industrial growth rates of 16.4%, 13.4%, and 10.2% respectively, driven by emerging industries [5][6] BYD Performance - BYD expects a first-quarter profit of 8.5 to 10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04% to 118.88% [9] - The company produced 1.057 million new energy vehicles in the first quarter, a 72.64% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales growing approximately 110% [9][10] Consumer Lending Trends - As of April 7, 2024, 12 out of 23 listed banks reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with the Bank of Communications leading with a 90% increase [11][12] - The expansion of consumer loans is seen as a response to stimulate market demand, although it raises concerns about rising default risks among younger borrowers [12] Market Reactions - A significant number of A-share companies, including CATL, announced share buybacks to stabilize market sentiment amid trade war fears [13][14] - The stock market showed a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.58%, driven by optimism in agriculture and consumer sectors [15][16]

作 者丨周蕊 向秀芳 编 辑丨和佳 尽管白宫坚称不会在关税问题上让步，特朗普却在不同场合表达出"愿意对话"的意愿，前后 不一的态度令市场更为迷茫。与此同时，美国参议院正推进一项旨在限制总统关税权力的跨 党派法案，白宫对此表示强烈反对，称该法案将削弱总统维护国家安全的能力。 随着不确定性持续发酵，金融机构纷纷发出预警。 花旗、高盛等多家机构已提醒客户关注未 来几周政策落地进展，以及特朗普政府是否会在政治压力下调整立场。摩根大通近日表示， 预计美国经济将在今年陷入衰退。该行首席经济学家Mi c h a e l Fe r o li预计，美联储最早将在6 月开始降息，并在今年余下的几次议息会议中持续调整政策利率。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙也 呼吁尽快解决由关税引发的贸易不确定性。 全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德（Bl a c kRo c k）首席执行官拉里·芬克（La rr y Fi n k）则表示： 美国经济正在迅速走弱，多个行业已开始感受到实际冲击，企业高管普遍认为美国事实上已 处于衰退边缘。芬克透露，他与多位大型企业CEO沟通后发现，绝大多数高管认为当前美国 经济已处于衰退状态，部分行业如航空、旅游的需求下降已成为明 ...

Market Overview - On April 7, U.S. stocks opened lower but later surged, with the Nasdaq index rising over 4% before retreating. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 390 points, a decline of 1.02% [1] - The Chinese A50 index futures initially surged over 4%, but the gains narrowed to 3.38% by the end of the session [7] Economic Policy Impact - Reports indicated that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, suggested that President Trump is considering a 90-day suspension of tariffs on certain countries. However, this was later denied by the White House, leading to volatility in the stock market [3][4] - The market reacted to the news of potential tariff suspensions, initially turning positive before reversing course due to the denial [4] Technology Sector Performance - In the technology sector, Nvidia saw a nearly 4% increase, while Apple and Tesla both dropped over 2% [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices fell sharply, dropping below $3,000 per ounce, trading at $2,991.73 [11] - WTI and Brent crude oil futures continued to decline, with WTI falling below $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level since April 2021. Both crude oil benchmarks have dropped over 20% from their January highs of approximately $80 per barrel, entering a bear market [12][14] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced plans to increase production starting in May, with an additional 410,000 barrels per day, which has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [15] U.S. Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about rising inflation and low growth, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid increasing economic uncertainty [17] - The upcoming earnings reports from U.S. companies will provide insights into the microeconomic conditions and potential recession timelines [17]

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of November 21, 2024, marking a record high, with a rapid increase from $35 trillion in just over three months [1] - The rising national debt is attributed to a significant reduction in fiscal revenue and high government spending, with a fiscal deficit reaching $1.8 trillion annually and an upward trend expected [1] - Increased costs associated with social security and healthcare, along with the interest on the national debt, contribute to the growing debt burden, which shows no signs of stabilizing [1] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a historical low of $760.1 billion by October 2024, marking a significant shift in its investment strategy [3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, including Japan and the UK, has sparked discussions about global capital flows and the status of the U.S. dollar [3] - Japan's reduction of $27.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in December 2024 brings its holdings down to $1.0598 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt despite the decrease [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed uncertainty about the economy avoiding recession during Trump's presidency, highlighting the unpredictable nature of economic forecasts [5] - Concerns about a potential recession are growing, with the U.S. stock market experiencing significant sell-offs and consumer confidence declining [8] - Economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate a decrease in expected growth to 1.7%, while inflation predictions are on the rise, leading to warnings from economists about an impending recession [8]

4月2日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在江苏扬州的一场公开活动上表示，以DeepSeek事件为标志，中 国科创崛起正在重塑中国资产的估值，中国科创企业正在技术突破、成本控制和商业化应用方面展现独 特优势。在中美科技竞争加剧、全球资本流动格局变化的背景下，中国科创的全面崛起不仅是技术进步 的体现，更是中国叙事逻辑的一次深刻重塑。 刘元春也强调，中国市场结构与市场秩序的治理是中国叙事和中国估值在中期全面持续的一个重要决定因 素，必须上升到新的高度。他还谈道，美国经济是否加速步入衰退期是美国叙事逻辑变化的关键，假如在 4月披露的美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为负，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上升突破3%。美联 储很可能在4月下旬或5月份开启新的降息阶段。一旦美国降息，我国货币政策空间将更加充足。 中国资产重估不是短期事件 今年农历新年前后，以DeepSeek事件触发，国际社会出现对于中国发展叙事逻辑的逆转。刘元春表示， DeepSeek在一周之内获得了全世界的热捧，在资本市场只要与DeepSeek相关的股票都快速上升。在这 一轮中国资产的上涨潮里，与新质生产力相关的、战略性新兴产业相关的中国公司股票实现全面引领。但 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.18%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.38% [1] - Notable declines in chip stocks, with Nvidia dropping over 2.5% and both AMD and Broadcom falling more than 1% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks are trading lower, with Pinduoduo and Baidu down nearly 2% and Alibaba decreasing by 1.35% [2] Apple Inc. - Apple has been fined €150 million by French antitrust regulators for abusing its dominant position in mobile app advertising through a privacy control tool called ATT, leading to a drop of over 1% in its stock price [2] Trade Policy - President Trump is considering imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on global imports, targeting specific industries with additional tariffs [2] Pharmaceutical Developments - Eli Lilly's new experimental drug, lepodisiran, has shown significant potential in reducing levels of lipoprotein(a), a risk factor for heart disease affecting approximately 1.4 billion people globally [2] Tesla Inc. - Analysts predict a decline of 8.5% in Tesla's Q1 global delivery volume, estimating it at 377,000 vehicles, which is a drop of over 20% compared to the previous quarter. The company's projected revenue for Q1 is $22.6 billion, marking the lowest level in a year, resulting in a stock drop of over 4% [3] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%, citing that aggressive tariffs will increase inflation and unemployment, hindering economic growth [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high of $3,120 per ounce, with the price per kilogram exceeding $100,000 for the first time [3]

自特朗普上台以来，他就牢牢占据着世界媒体的目光，先是给墨西哥湾改名，又意图吞并加拿大和格陵 兰岛，虽然很多时候他只是嘴炮先行，但无疑他的言行还是为世界增添了许多不稳定因素，市场避险情 绪因此持续升温，黄金也开始试探3100大关。 随着关税战的全面开打和美国经济衰退风险的上升，黄金后续很可能将迎来更加剧烈的波动，超级行情 即将来袭！此时恰逢领峰贵金属(igoldtg.top/mKzw6b)双倍积分活动限时开启，给力福利助您火力全开， 擒获机遇！ ● 如何获取积分？ 无需登记报名，活动期间交易黄金、白银，每累计达1手即送400积分。其中200原始积分自动到账；200 额外奖励积分， 需登录用户中心手动领取。积分奖励不设上限，限时2倍福利助力交易，交易越多奖励 越多！ ● 积分有什么作用？ 目前其"胡萝卜加大棒"策略初见成效，现代汽车集团随即宣布210亿美元对美投资计划，其中包含58亿 美元的钢铁厂项目，而韩国和英国也计划，在特朗普对等关税出台前，先行降低对美关税，同时也准备 加大对美投资。 只是目前这些举动都只停留在计划中，但是特朗普的关税危险却已实实在在在进行中，因此市场避险情 绪持续高涨，成为了黄金上探310 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35%, nearly doubling the previous estimate, primarily due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The increase in recession probability reflects lower economic baseline expectations, a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence, and comments from White House officials indicating a willingness to tolerate short-term economic weakness to achieve policy goals [2]. - Goldman Sachs has also raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth forecasts, predicting a 0.5 percentage point increase in the core PCE price index to 3.5% by the end of 2025, and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in GDP growth to only 1.0% (year-over-year) [2]. - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% [2]. Federal Reserve Actions - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, specifically in July, September, and November, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50-3.75% [3]. - Previously, Goldman Sachs had not expected any rate cuts in 2025 and only one in 2026, indicating a significant shift in outlook [4]. Consumer Vulnerability - The economic fundamentals in the U.S. are expected to weaken, with increased consumer vulnerability, and actual income growth projected to be only 1.4% in 2025, significantly lower than in recent years [4]. - Recent declines in consumer sentiment are viewed as more significant due to the current economic fundamentals being weaker than in previous years [5].

作 者丨吴斌,钱伯彦 编 辑丨包芳鸣,张铭心,江佩佩 美股再遭猛烈抛售! 3月2 8日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿跌幅还在扩大。热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数一度跌超3%，纳斯达克指数跌2%，万得美国科技七巨头指数暴跌超11 0 0点，跌 幅2 . 3%，年初至今该指数跌幅已超1 4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41761.35 | -538.35 | -1.27% | -1.84% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 17445.34 | -358.69 | -2.01% | -9.66% | | града | 标普500 | 5609.50 | -83.81 | -1.47% | -4.63% | | NDX | 纳斯达克100 | 19426.67 | -371.95 | -1.88% | -7.55% | | MAGS | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 47309.67 | -1112.78 | -2.30% | -14.34 ...