证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业深度研究报告 异变——房价如何影响消费 风险提示：土地财政进一步下滑，影响广义财政链。 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 06 月 03 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 联系人：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 11,100.20 | 1.12 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 10,602.66 | 1.35 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -4.7% | | 相对表现 | -2.1% | -14.7% | -11.5% | -21% -4% 13% 30% 24/06 24/0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhu Jiangtao as the new president of China Merchants Securities marks a significant leadership change, expected to enhance the company's business operations and risk management capabilities, leveraging his extensive experience in the financial sector [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhu Jiangtao has been appointed as the new president of China Merchants Securities, succeeding Wu Zongmin, who retired due to age [1]. - Zhu has a 20-year tenure at China Merchants Bank, holding various senior positions, including Chief Risk Officer and Vice President [2]. - Recent personnel changes at China Merchants Securities include the appointment of two new vice presidents, Zhang Xing and Wang Zhijian, alongside Zhu's leadership [3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - China Merchants Securities plans to implement three core strategies by 2025, focusing on enhancing core business competitiveness through innovation and transformation [4]. - The company aims to leverage technology and collaboration to support strategic initiatives, emphasizing the integration with China Merchants Group's "third entrepreneurship" [5]. - Risk management will be prioritized to ensure stable operations, with a focus on proactive risk management and compliance [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - China Merchants Securities reported a net profit of 8.072 billion yuan in 2022, projected to grow to 10.386 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a fourth-place ranking in the industry [6]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 20.891 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, with a net profit growth of 18.51% [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued its growth trajectory, achieving a revenue of 4.713 billion yuan, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [6].

文/清华大学五道口金融学院全球家族企业研究中心主任 高皓 ，清华大学五道口 金融学院全球家族企业研究中心高级研究专员 孙子谋 挪威政府全球养老基金是当前全球范围内管理资产规模最大的主权财富基 金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。本文探讨该主权财富基金的 基准投资组合策略及透明治理机制，分析其长期投资框架下的被动敞口管 理，并从大类资产和国别视角出发，对投资进行分析和评价。 挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，以下简称GPFG）是当前全球范围内管 理资产规模最大的主权财富基金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。截至2025年3月， GPFG资产规模已达1.73万亿美元，所投资的上市公司遍布全球70多个国家和地区，数量超过9000 家。 依据挪威财政部的监管框架，GPFG由挪威央行投资管理部（NBIM）进行运营管理，建立了以股 票和固定收益为核心的基准投资组合配置体系，并将货币风险管理作为全球投资组合管理的关键 环节。GPFG的透明治理机制和严格财政规则，确保了石油收入的跨代公平分配，防止资源繁荣 期过度财政扩张可能带来的经济波动风险。这些特点都使GPFG在全 ...

Group 1 - Gary Stevenson emerged from a challenging background, leveraging his mathematical talent to secure a scholarship at the London School of Economics, which marked the beginning of his remarkable journey in finance [3] - He gained employment at Citibank after winning a trading game, distinguishing himself among peers from affluent backgrounds [3] - During the 2008 financial crisis, he demonstrated exceptional insight by betting on sustained low interest rates, which ultimately led to significant financial success [4] Group 2 - Stevenson predicts that the younger generation will struggle to afford housing, as rising property prices have transformed housing from a necessity into a luxury [6] - He asserts that Bitcoin will eventually become worthless, likening it to a "musical chairs game" and highlighting its lack of intrinsic value [6] - Stevenson argues that economic growth does not equate to personal wealth increase, emphasizing the need for real resource creation to benefit society [6] - He believes that the concept of compound interest is not applicable to ordinary people, as the limited nature of resources undermines the potential for easy wealth accumulation [6] - Stevenson warns that the UK may experience a return to Victorian-era poverty, with a widening wealth gap leading to societal collapse [7] Group 3 - Stevenson's story and predictions serve as a reflection of modern societal issues, emphasizing the importance of maintaining integrity while pursuing success [9] - His insights highlight the severity of wealth inequality and the dangers of virtual economic bubbles, urging a more realistic approach to these challenges [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].

中经院表示，制造业的保守观望、股市回调所带来的负面财富效应、消费者信心低迷等，均影响经济走 势。连贤明分析，厂商目前虽未陷入悲观，但乐观情绪仍显不足，美国关税政策对制造业的影响有望于 6、7月间逐渐明朗。(完) 中经院介绍，5月PMI五项组成指标中，经季节调整后，新增订单与人力雇用仍处于紧缩，生产活动由 紧缩转为扩张，供货商交货时间延长，存货则持续增加。制造业六大产业中，电子暨光学、电力暨机械 设备、化学暨生技医疗三大产业呈现扩张，交通工具、基础原物料、食品暨纺织产业则仍呈现紧缩。 非制造业方面，中经院指出，5月未经季节调整的台湾非制造业采购经理人指数(NMI)已连续3个月扩 张，本月NMI微升0.9个百分点至51.9%。非制造业商业活动与新增订单指数同步转为扩张，但未来展望 指数连续第三个月呈现紧缩。 中新社台北6月2日电 (记者张晓曦)台湾中华经济研究院(简称"中经院")2日在台北公布，经季节调整后， 今年5月台湾制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)回升2.1个百分点至51%，与4月相比由紧缩转为扩张。中经院 院长连贤明指出，厂商决策仍偏保守，目前"谈不上乐观"。 PMI高于50%表示景气处于扩张期，低于50% ...

以下文章来源于雷达Finance ，作者X编辑 雷达Finance . 遨游广袤的财富世界。 作者：孟帅 来源：雷达财经 然而， 相比2019年巅峰时刻的470亿元，常年稳坐新疆首富宝座的孙广信身家已缩水180亿元 ，且今年他在新疆富豪中的财富规模已被华凌工贸的米恩华家族追平。 回溯过去，高考失利投身军营的孙广信以3000元转业费起步，靠着10个月卖出103台推土机掘 得第一桶金。此后，他在餐饮、石油、地产、汽车经销等领域纵横捭阖，逐步将广汇集团打造成 为实力雄厚的大型企业。 不过，曾缔造诸多商业神话的孙广信，如今面临不少挑战。比如，身为广汇集团旗下核心资产的 广汇能源去年业绩承压， 2025年一季度仍未好转；因财务造假 ， ST广物 去年被罚，且业绩持 续低迷。 与此同时，市值仅 2.44亿港元 的广汇宝信，去年年报缓发；合金投资的业绩尚未形成足够的体 量，难挑大梁。而集团旗下身为国内最大汽车经销商的广汇汽车，也在去年黯然退市，且控股权 难保。 此外，天眼查显示，作为CBA新疆 广汇篮球俱乐部的幕后股东，孙广信掌舵的新疆广汇房地产开 发有限公司、广汇集团当前还背负执行人信息。重重危机下，被外界唤作"西北孙老 ...

巴黎，一个身影走出日本领事馆，面无表情，却像刚打完一场硬仗。他就是中山美穗的儿子。没人想到，这位已故日本女星的独子，会在母亲 刚过世不久，做出一个炸裂舆论场的决定——放弃继承遗产。 20亿日元，不是小数。这在东京可以换来一整栋商业楼，也足够在银座买下一排珠宝店的橱窗。但他一句话，断了所有幻想：不继承。 背后原因并不复杂，却极其现实。日本遗产税，全世界出了名的高。法律明文写着，遗产超过6亿日元，税率直接跳到55%。你没听错，不是 25%、35%，是超过一半的硬刀子切。也就是说，20亿的遗产，他得先拿出10亿真金白银来交税。没有讨价还价，也不看你是不是死者亲属。 问题来了，这20亿并不是实打实的现金，而是评估出来的价值。珠宝、版权这些东西，说值钱确实值钱，但变现慢、难估价，一旦脱手，水分 全出来了。中山美穗这些年虽说仍有影响力，但她的音乐版权和珠宝能卖出几成价？业内人一看就懂，撑死值个七八亿。可税务局可不管这 些，你评估值20亿，那就按20亿来算税。她儿子手里要是没那么多流动资金，接都接不了。 中国人很讲传承，讲家业，但也讲究量力而行。我们看重情分，也讲现实。这一点上，我们确实比日本更灵活一些。税收制度、财产结构 ...

1. FENDE = 设定每月工资到账后自动转10%-20%到储 蓄/投资账户,剩余的钱再分配生活开支。 LANKARAN 2.7m² 55 F-5-5 开立独立账户存放应急金,选择货币基金或 短期存款,确保随时可取。 】【零】"】【 0 列出所有负债并按利率排序，集中火力偿 还利率最高的债务。 t Mest with her is less what U.SEE 3200B CHF。 mals 2 5 3 5 1 1 5 1 3 5 关键总结 免责声明 5.复利是第八六高速 25岁起每月定投 2000元, 按年化 8%计算,60岁可积 累约700万元。 控制量发区信 记账分析消费习惯，砍掉每月30%的 「想要但不需要」开支 t with the hot the halt to be to 7。分散风险但不过度分散 按年龄分配股票比例(如「100-年龄」=投 资股票的比例）,剩余配置债券/现金。 目。永远为量好看说那故河草 配置消费型重疾险、医疗险和定期寿险,保 费控制在年收入5%-10%。 学习指数基金定投、房产收租等被动收 入模式,逐步积累资产。 文章封面图来源于AI，以上观点来自AI，不代表天天基金的观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that wealthy individuals tend to have lower daily consumption relative to their income, with high net worth families spending only 18.7% of their annual income on daily expenses compared to 32.6% for families earning between 100,000 to 500,000 yuan and 62.3% for those earning below 100,000 yuan [1] - A report by China Merchants Bank and Bain & Company indicates that the proportion of daily consumption among high net worth individuals has decreased from 31% in 2015 to 23% in 2024 [2] Group 2 - Wealthy individuals have a different consumption philosophy, prioritizing investment over consumption, which allows them to grow their wealth rather than spend it all [5] - Chinese wealthy individuals prefer to conceal their wealth, with 78.5% of those surveyed intentionally lowering their consumption levels to avoid drawing attention to their financial status [7] - Many wealthy individuals have experienced a transition from poverty to wealth, leading them to appreciate the value of money and adopt frugal spending habits [9] - Wealthy individuals aim to instill values of frugality in their children, with 85.3% emphasizing the importance of teaching their offspring to avoid extravagant spending [11] - A significant number of wealthy individuals are cautious about future uncertainties, preferring to save and invest rather than spend excessively, which provides them with a financial safety net [13]