Group 1 - The international gold market experienced a significant drop on May 12, 2025, with London spot gold prices falling over 2% to a low of $3217.1 per ounce, marking a nearly one-month low [1] - The decline was attributed to multiple negative factors, including geopolitical risks, a strong dollar, and changes in market sentiment [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index rose to 100.63, creating direct pressure on gold prices, while expectations for the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance increased following strong economic indicators [2][3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions eased, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with funds previously flowing into gold now moving towards riskier assets like stocks [2] - The technical breakdown of key support levels triggered programmatic selling, exacerbating the decline in gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF saw a reduction in holdings by 5.2 tons, indicating a retreat of speculative funds from the gold market [3] Group 3 - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment value of gold remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a deepening trend of de-dollarization [3] - In Q1 2025, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, with China's reserves surpassing 2200 tons, highlighting gold's role in stabilizing prices [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target price of $3700 for gold, with potential extreme scenarios suggesting prices could reach $4500 [3]

周一，日本30年期国债收益率大幅攀升5个基点至2.955%，创下近25年来的最高水平，并逼近历史峰值。 自特朗普4月初升级关税威胁以来，日本债券市场持续遭受动荡。投资者面临着日益复杂的风险组合。 一方面，关税政策对经济构成威胁，削弱了日本央行近期加息的可能性，这使短期债券相对更具吸引力。另一方面，关税政策提高了通胀风险， 降低了超长期债券的投资价值。 日本10年期债券最近的销售录得自2021年以来最疲弱的需求。投资者对周二即将举行的30年期债券拍卖也保持谨慎态度。 "超长期债券市场正在发生不可逆转的结构性变化，30年期收益率不一定会在3%水平停止上涨，"野村证券执行利率策略师Mari Iwashita表示： "在日本央行减少国债购买、寿险公司需求下降等重大趋势转变中，特朗普的关税政策导致美国债券市场动荡，也扰乱了超长期债券的 供需平衡。" 日债市场陷入动荡，长期收益率飙升 5与12日周一，市场风险偏好明显上升。根据商务部的声明，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点，当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下，美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos：美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率上升和通胀风险已增加。 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025, with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first shrinkage in nearly three years. Concerns over tariffs have led to a surge in imports, which negatively impacted GDP growth, while consumption and investment remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, the economy may face further pressure in Q2 due to increased tariffs, inventory depletion, and declining exports [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, real GDP fell short of market expectations, declining from a robust 2.4% in Q4 2024 to -0.3%. The surge in actual goods imports, which rose by 41.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, significantly detracted from GDP growth by 4.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, private domestic final sales increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating stable domestic demand prior to the tariff implementation [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment showed mixed results, with equipment investment rebounding significantly to a growth rate of 22.5%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP. However, real estate and construction growth slowed, reflecting ongoing pressures from high interest rates. Personal consumption expenditure growth also declined from 4.0% to 1.8%, with durable goods consumption turning negative [4][5]. Future Economic Outlook - The second quarter is expected to face additional economic pressure as imports may slow down due to tariffs, potentially alleviating some of the negative impact from "import rushing." However, this could lead to greater disruptions in economic activity. Inventory depletion is anticipated to further suppress economic growth, while consumer spending may slow due to higher costs [5][6]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with April's non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations. However, the labor market may face increased pressure from tariff-related uncertainties, which could dampen overall employment growth [6][7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation risks remain elevated, with the core PCE price index rising from 2.6% to 3.5% in Q1 2025, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The ongoing high tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations may exacerbate inflationary pressures, particularly affecting low-income consumers reliant on affordable goods [9][10]. - Given the current economic landscape, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain a neutral to hawkish stance, as resilient GDP and employment data do not support rate cuts. Future rate decisions will depend on the evolution of tariff impacts and inflation trends [10][11].

欧洲央行管委Stournaras：如果欧盟（针对特朗普政府的）关税反应是精挑细选的，预计将不会（对欧 元区自身）造成通胀风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada meeting minutes indicate that members supporting interest rate cuts cited recent subdued inflation risks and signs of a weakening economy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Indicators - Recent inflation risks are described as relatively mild, suggesting a stable price environment [1] - There are indications that the economy is showing signs of weakness, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Insights - John Paulson gained fame by shorting the U.S. real estate market, creating a legendary investment narrative, and his long-term journey in gold investment reflects the volatility of global economic and financial markets [1][3] Group 1: Investment Journey - After profiting from the U.S. housing market collapse, Paulson shifted focus to gold, predicting inflation risks amid the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, leading to a significant profit of $15 billion for his hedge fund in 2007 [3] - Paulson's early investments in gold were initially successful, but his misjudgment regarding inflation led to setbacks in gold-related investments, particularly in mining stocks, as well as losses in pharmaceutical and banking sectors [3][4] - In 2020, Paulson transformed his hedge fund into a private investment management firm, focusing on serving himself and related entities, while also engaging in legal disputes and political activities [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The COVID-19 pandemic triggered massive stimulus policies and inflationary pressures, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce amid declining stock and bond markets [4] - Paulson increased his investment in gold, spending $800 million to acquire a 50% stake in Barrick Gold's Donlin project in Alaska, which is estimated to contain 39 million ounces of gold, equivalent to a quarter of Fort Knox's reserves [4] - The development of the Donlin mine faces challenges, including infrastructure needs and location on indigenous land, with production not expected until the early 2030s, yet Paulson remains optimistic about its long-term value [4] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Paulson believes in gold's enduring value as a physical reserve that can withstand inflation, war, and asset confiscation, despite its high storage costs and lack of interest income [5] - He emphasizes the potential for mining companies to significantly increase profits as gold prices rise, and even if prices fall, mining companies can still remain profitable [5] - Paulson's investment strategy includes focusing on emerging mining companies, such as Perpetua Resources and Agnico Eagle Mines, to maximize returns in a fluctuating market [5]