Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the A-share market has historically spent most of its time below the 3500-point mark, and the focus should not be solely on previous peaks like 6124 and 5178 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance is compared to the US stock market, suggesting that a slow and steady growth ("slow bull") is preferable to irrational spikes seen in 2007 and 2015 [1][3] - The importance of the 3500-point level is highlighted, indicating that if the index can stabilize above this point, it would significantly impact the current market trend [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is likely to accelerate upward, with the index expected to break through 3674 points, and the current market structure does not indicate a top [5] - It is noted that the white liquor sector is currently at a low point, which is seen as a positive factor for the market's potential recovery [3] - The analysis indicates that regardless of potential pullbacks, the overall trend remains upward, and any corrections would be limited in scope [5][7]

银河研究 金融期货研发报告 金融期货年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 稳中有进 开启慢牛 ——股指期货 2025 年中策略报告 报告摘要： 2025 上半年市场两次经受住了考验，分别在政策预期、资金支撑下实现探底反弹，形 成快跌慢涨的慢牛走势，底部不断抬高。 一行一局一会两度联合新闻发布会，坚强有力的表态表明管理层稳定股市的信心和决 心，下半年政策环境持续稳定，股指也将表现稳定。 市场利率不断下行，理财资金不断转向高股息资产为股市营造良好的市场环境，推动中 长期资金入市的政策指向使保险资金股票投资不断提速，汇金等央企增持又使市场增添信 心，资金面整体稳中有增。 宏观经济数据和上市公司业绩同样保持平稳，进而使估值下有支撑，股指慢牛表现即有 基本面又有资金面的助力，预计下半年将继续震荡上行。 股指期货成交持仓略有增长，受多方因素影响贴水有所加大，为期指多头带来较好的投 资机会，在风险合理控制的情况下，可能为投资者取得超额收益。 风险因素：国内经济增长不及预期，地缘政治因素 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 :sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn ...

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the innovative drug market is uncertain, with investors questioning whether the recent downturn is a temporary fluctuation or a sign of a prolonged decline. The hope is for a gradual upward trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector in China has only been active in the secondary market for seven years, experiencing significant volatility that typically takes decades in other industries. From 2020 to 2021, the sector saw explosive growth, with many companies doubling their stock prices, but this was followed by a sharp decline, reaching historical lows by July 2024, with most companies trading below their initial offering prices [3][4]. - The recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market for innovative drugs began in early 2025, spurred by significant business development (BD) transactions involving companies like 3SBio and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, leading to a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the recent market recovery, caution is warranted as the previous surge taught investors that only a small fraction of the thousands of drug pipelines are securing large deals, raising concerns about market viability for many others [5][6]. - The innovative drug industry in China is recognized for its potential, even if much of its current innovation is in the form of fast-follow strategies. Recent record-breaking BD transactions and the emergence of the first domestic "billion-dollar molecule" demonstrate that Chinese innovation can gain international recognition [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of innovative drugs is a long-term endeavor, typically requiring an average of ten years and one billion dollars to bring a new drug to market. The industry is still in its growth phase, and the next decade is expected to see a more rational valuation from the capital market, with a call for patience and longer growth cycles [6][7]. - A stable policy environment is crucial for fostering a "slow bull" market in the innovative drug sector. Recent initiatives from the National Healthcare Security Administration to explore new payment models for innovative drugs and the reduction of clinical trial review times are seen as positive steps [7][8]. - A collaborative approach among companies, investors, and regulators, emphasizing long-termism, is essential for the emergence of more internationally competitive innovative drugs. A focus on steady progress rather than rapid growth is advocated to ensure sustainable development [8].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has decided to temporarily suspend IPOs, but is implementing a pre-review mechanism for high-quality technology companies, indicating a cautious approach rather than a full opening of the IPO market [1] - The CSRC's actions can be seen as a signal to further support IPOs after encouraging mergers and acquisitions, suggesting a positive market sentiment and potential for a bull market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3362 points after a day of weak trading and a significant drop in trading volume to approximately 1.2 trillion [3] - There is a noticeable shift in market dynamics, with previously strong sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and digital currencies experiencing declines, while underperforming sectors like humanoid robots saw a rebound [3] Group 3 - Over 4000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with a significant increase in selling pressure as the market showed weak performance, leading to a closing volume exceeding 56 billion [5] - The lack of strong buying support during the market's decline suggests that large funds are not currently inclined to intervene, which could lead to further downward pressure if the market continues to fall [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical turning point, with the 3330 to 3350 point range being particularly sensitive; if this range is breached, it could lead to more severe declines [6] - Historical patterns suggest that if the index can maintain this range, there may be potential for recovery, although current market conditions make predictions uncertain [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.79%, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes dropped by over 1% [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to show a narrow fluctuation trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3367.58 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) experienced a minor decline of 0.21% at the close, despite active trading with a total turnover exceeding 2.294 billion yuan, ranking second in the market for similar products [1] - The turnover rate of the A500 Index ETF was 16.03%, also ranking second in the market, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that long-term funds, including social security, insurance, and annuities, have net bought over 200 billion yuan of A-shares this year, reflecting a positive cycle of capital inflow and market stability [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange recently held specialized training to support the entry of equity funds from commercial bank wealth management companies, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of ETFs in attracting long-term capital [1] - Analysts predict that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner this year, supported by policy measures and improvements in the economic fundamentals [2] Group 3 - The A500 Index ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, which consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and favoring large and mid-cap styles [2] - The A500 Index ETF is seen as a valuable tool for investors looking to allocate to representative A-share companies, particularly those with high new productivity component ratios [2] - Investors can also access quality core asset opportunities through the A500 Index ETF linked funds (Class A 022453; Class C 022454) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference on May 7, 2024, highlighted a series of financial support policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, marking a systematic response to complex economic conditions [2][4][10]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a package of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 0.1 percentage point cut in interest rates, indicating a proactive approach to economic challenges [4][10]. - The combination of "total easing + targeted drip irrigation" strategies aims to lower financing costs for the real economy and inject certainty into the market [4][10]. Market Response and Expectations - The market's initial reaction to the "double cut" was less enthusiastic compared to previous announcements, with the Shanghai Composite Index only rising by 0.80% on the day of the announcement, reflecting a more cautious sentiment [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current low valuation levels of the A-share market, combined with ongoing supportive policies, could lead to a "slow bull" market trend [12]. Capital Market Support - The financial regulatory authorities emphasized the importance of long-term capital, such as insurance funds, to stabilize the capital market, indicating a shift towards a more coordinated policy approach [7][10]. - The introduction of structural tools and support for long-term investments aims to enhance market resilience and encourage a transition from short-term speculation to long-term value investment [7][10]. Future Policy Directions - Analysts anticipate further policy measures in fiscal, quasi-fiscal, and consumption sectors, suggesting that the recent monetary policy actions are just the beginning of a broader strategy to stimulate demand and support economic growth [5][12].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a package of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1][4] - A 0.1% decrease in the policy interest rate, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The current A-share market is experiencing a combination of the new "Guo Jiu Tiao" policies and a "4 trillion" investment trend, with expectations for a continued "slow bull" market through 2025 [4] Group 2 - Historical data shows that A-share indices have generally increased following previous reserve requirement reductions since 2018, with significant gains observed after the two reductions in 2024 [4] - The financial sector, particularly large financial institutions, is expected to benefit directly from the liquidity easing, as evidenced by recent stock price increases in banks, securities, and insurance companies [4][6] - For the banking sector, the reserve requirement cut is expected to lower funding costs and alleviate pressure on net interest margins, while also stimulating corporate credit demand [6] - The securities industry is projected to see a recovery in profitability in 2025 due to sustained market liquidity, with a focus on brokers benefiting from increased investor participation and comprehensive leading brokers expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and potential mergers [6]

二、大资金突然出手，释放什么信号？ 无论是沪指还是创业板指数，今天的阳包阴主要出现在开盘半小时内。虽然沪指在这段时间涨幅不明显，但从盘面上能清楚看到大资金的强势动作。 低开后，市场迅速完成技术调整，一口气收复失地，这通常是多头强势的信号，也是市场突然变强的征兆。而这一切的导火索，正是沪深300ETF。 随着1.2万亿资金逐步通过银行体系流入市场，市场资金流动性得到有力补充，经济也迎来强劲动力。在这种充裕的资金环境下，消费市场迎来巨大机遇， 无论是高端消费还是日常消费，都能找到发展机会。 4月份有1000亿MLF到期，这意味着央行本月MLF净投放高达5000亿。很多人还没意识到这个数字的惊人之处。要知道，3月份MLF净投放才630亿，4月份 的投放量相当于3月份的近10倍，力度之大，简直就像"一次降准"！ 一、央行突击降准的牛市！降准降息是本次发布会重点之一，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元！ 三、只要回踩基本上都会给我们一次比较好的这种分歧低吸的机会，短期我们就是轻指数、重个股、重节奏。 指数上，是低开之后出现了一波上攻，但是从量能上来看，1.2万亿的一个预期的成交量还是不太够，所以说下午仍然还是围绕33 ...

Policy Highlights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1] - A targeted reserve requirement ratio cut to 0% for auto finance and financial leasing companies aims to enhance credit capacity in the automotive and equipment renewal sectors [1] - Policy interest rates were lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repo rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to drive down the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Financial Regulatory Measures - The Financial Regulatory Administration approved 6.7 trillion yuan in "white list" loans to support the construction and delivery of 16 million residential units [5] - A package of policies for small and micro enterprises was introduced, focusing on increasing credit supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and optimizing the environment [9] - Measures to stabilize the stock market include expanding insurance capital market participation with an additional 60 billion yuan for long-term investment [7] Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance institutional inclusivity and support mergers and acquisitions [12] - A high-quality development action plan for public funds was released, emphasizing the binding of fund and investor interests [13] - The introduction of a risk response plan aims to enhance the resilience of A-share listed companies against external shocks [14] Market Outlook - The combination of monetary easing and structural optimization is expected to stabilize market expectations and support long-term economic transformation, potentially leading to a slow bull market in A-shares [15] - The introduction of 8,000 billion yuan in technology innovation re-loans is anticipated to lower financing costs for tech companies, making them a core growth point in the market [17] - The public fund reform plan emphasizes long-term investment behavior, which is expected to reduce short-term volatility and enhance investor trust [18]

一、证监会突然调整休市安排，五一节假期从5月1日（周四）至5月5日（周一）放假！ 村里最近可真是下了狠手，对那些市场上的"坏家伙"清理得飞快，退市新规一出，今年退市的公司数量估计要创新高了。过去一年，被立案调查的公司都超 过150家了，4月份被ST的也有110多家。这股市里"割韭菜"的事儿，可真是让人头疼。 所以啊，在市场上，咱们对那些有问题的公司，还是得多留个心眼。最近A股可热闹了，量化交易做空的事儿被叫停，这可把市场给炸开了锅。这一记重 拳，直接戳中了市场的"痛点"，无数股民都在盯着这场关键的变局。要是现在暂停量化做空，等市场信心恢复了，说不定马上就能突破之前的高点，开启一 场稳稳的慢牛行情呢。你觉得呢？ 三、通过营收调解即可实现戴摘帽的st，我们可以统称为假st。 一些营收在3亿左右的上市公司往往可以通过经销商的配合来实现保壳。比如，一个公司年营收约2.8-2.9亿（创业板1亿左）且亏损，从长期来看，其大概率 是不符合上市规则的。 但在符合会计要求的情况下，适当的调动经销商的积极性，就可以实现保壳的目的。比如，适当的调整营销策略，将24年最后几个月份的营收延迟安排在25 年，或者在25年提前实现26年前 ...