Core Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, highlighted an increase in domestic and international uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff prospects [1] - Ueda indicated that maintaining low interest rates while price trends improve would be excessively accommodative [1] - The Bank of Japan will closely monitor the impact of tariffs and formulate policies accordingly, emphasizing collaboration with the government [1] - Attention will be given to price levels, economic conditions, and financial markets [1]

白宫经济顾问哈塞特：美联储将决定其关于利率的政策取向。 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.3% in February, down 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased to 2.8% in February, up 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, below the market expectation of 51.8[21] Group 2: Market Trends - Major stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 both down 1.5% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[3] - Commodity prices mostly rose, with London gold up 2.0% and IPE Brent crude futures up 1.8%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.27%[3] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - As of March 28, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US rose to 2.58%, an increase of 7 basis points from the previous week[23] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with the second cut now expected in July[23] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for a longer period due to rising inflation expectations[34] - The European Central Bank's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with officials indicating caution regarding future decisions[35]

整体而言，中信证券认为四季度以来的政策对于稳定金融风险有直接作用，两会期间上述政策大幅超预 期可能性不大，但政策"不确定"走向"确定"，因此预计银行股仍将延续平稳向上走势。 政策面看，市场关注两会可能的超预期政策，预计财政金融方面关注发行特别国债对银行注资、利率和 准备金率政策等方面。 人民财讯3月3日电，中信证券研报表示，市场面看，上周银行板块走势平稳，波动率小于其他行业，市 场结构性行情快速演绎下，银行板块走势相对稳定。 ...

每日债市复盘 10Y国开(240205) 20240430 2.480 较上一交易日: ↓ 5.35 BP 2.460 政治局会议:要灵活 运用利率和存款准备 2.440 金率等政策工具 2.420 2.400 今日央行大额净投放,PMI数据基本符合预 期,股市小幅下跌,债市利率大幅下行。 2.380 2.360 。今日关注: ☆ 明日关注: b 资金面: 均衡 2.340 OMO净投放4380亿元 4月官方制造业PMI: 美联储议息会议 (5.2) 2.320 R001: 2.00%; R007: 2.09% 50.4, 前值50.8 五一假期消费数据 2.300 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 ...