房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 房地产行业第 46 周周报（2025 年 11 月 8 日-2025 年 11 月 14 日） 本周成交环比转正，同比降幅收窄，但 10 月 70 城房价环比跌幅 扩大，仍需等待政策进一步发力 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价 跌幅大于二、三线城市》（2025/07/17） 《2025 年将成为房地产行业"由量转质，优化结构" 的关键年》（2025/05/12） 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积环比上升，同比下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 重庆市发改委等 8 部门联合印发《进一步清理消费领域限制性举措持续扩大消费 若干措施》，放宽全款购房公积金提取条件，职工一次性付清购房价款的，可自 购房之日起满半年后每年提取一次，提取办理时限由两年放宽至五年， ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing projects indicates a new "market + guarantee" model in real estate development is taking shape [1][2] Group 1: Project Developments - In Zhongshan, Guangdong, six projects have submitted applications for acquiring nearly 1,500 units of existing housing for affordable housing since the pilot program began in late September [1] - Hangzhou has expanded its efforts, with a new round of housing collection initiated by Hangzhou Anju Group, targeting eight urban districts and focusing on areas near transportation hubs and public facilities [1] - In Chongqing, two new projects have been launched, providing over 520 units of existing housing for affordable rental housing, reflecting the city's commitment to a dual rental and purchase housing system [1] Group 2: Funding Mechanisms - Recent re-loan policies for affordable housing have been crucial for project implementation, with Chongqing's branch of the People's Bank of China facilitating a loan of 152 million yuan for the acquisition of 226 units [2] - Changde in Hunan has successfully completed its first county-level loan for acquiring existing housing for affordable housing, marking a significant step for non-provincial capital cities in the region [2] - Special funds are also being utilized to accelerate acquisitions, with Jingmen in Hubei applying for 10 projects and proposing a special bond issuance of 470 million yuan [2] Group 3: Policy and Market Implications - Policy emphasis is on optimizing the supply of affordable housing and regulating the rental market, with low-cost funding sources like special bonds aiding in the acquisition of existing housing [3] - Various regions are supporting initiatives to provide housing guarantees for young entrepreneurs and talent, alleviating the rental burden on these groups [3] - The approach of acquiring and renting out existing housing can help balance the supply structure of affordable housing and create a healthier cycle in the real estate market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future direction of the real estate market in China, emphasizing the transition to a new development model supported by monetary policy and local government initiatives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to leverage monetary and credit policies to support the construction of a new real estate development model, focusing on the importance of interest rates and their relationships in macroeconomic balance [2][5]. - Recent data from 70 cities indicates that in October, nine cities, including Shanghai and Harbin, saw a year-on-year halt in the decline of new home prices, marking the highest number since Q2 2024 [2][5]. - The current low interest rate environment has led to a situation where rental yields in key cities are surpassing deposit rates, providing new support for property prices [2][5]. Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Shanghai has initiated a special action to regulate online real estate information dissemination, targeting misinformation and market manipulation [7]. - Huizhou has fully relaxed household registration restrictions, allowing individuals with legal property rights or those who have lived and worked in the city for over six months to apply for residency, which is expected to enhance labor mobility and population structure [8]. - Various cities, including Luoyang and Zhengzhou, have optimized housing provident fund policies, increasing loan limits and facilitating online applications to improve transparency and accessibility for homebuyers [9][10][11]. Group 3: Market Transition and Challenges - The real estate industry is transitioning from large-scale expansion to high-quality development, facing challenges such as inventory pressure and price system restructuring [5]. - The market is entering a phase where second-hand home transactions are increasingly replacing new home sales, reflecting a natural market adjustment [5]. - The article highlights the need for a balanced view of market indicators during this transitional period, as fluctuations are expected while the market seeks a new equilibrium [4][5]. Group 4: Policy Trends and Future Outlook - The frequency of policy announcements aimed at stabilizing the market remains high, particularly regarding the optimization of housing provident fund policies, which are seen as crucial for market stability [16][18]. - The article anticipates an increase in policies related to "good housing," industry order, and affordable housing as the market continues to evolve [16][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the second-hand housing market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October, and second-hand homes accounting for 45% of total transactions [1][2] - Major cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Changzhou, and Dongguan have seen over a 10% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area [1] - Analysts suggest that as the housing market transitions to a stock era, the role of second-hand homes as a substitute for new homes is becoming increasingly significant [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has been actively implementing supportive policies to stimulate rigid and improved housing demand, contributing to a stabilization in the real estate market [2] - Despite fluctuations in the real estate market, the effectiveness of these policies is evident, with a narrowing decline in commodity housing sales and ongoing inventory reduction [2] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the real estate market is in a transitional phase, requiring time for adjustment, and emphasized the need for a new development model for the sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The central bank is enhancing financial support for the real estate sector, contributing to a new development model, while second-hand housing sales have shown a month-on-month increase [6][15] - The report highlights that the real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 2.7% compared to a 1.08% decline in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 3.78% [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.08%, indicating stronger performance in the sector [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of November 7-13, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 20,673 units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%. The total area sold was 2.171 million square meters, down 35.5% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [4][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,576 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% but a month-on-month increase of 3.4%. The total area sold was 1.855 million square meters, down 18.7% year-on-year but up 6.2% month-on-month [4][32] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 188.439 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a depletion cycle of 173.4 weeks [4][50] 3. Land Market Supply and Transaction Analysis - During the week, 6,292.4 million square meters of land were supplied, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while land transactions totaled 1,189.5 million square meters, down 73.9% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 4.62 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.05% [5]

Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization due to various supportive measures implemented by different regions and departments since the beginning of the year [1][3] - The next phase of the real estate market's trajectory is expected to involve a transition period as the industry adapts to new models [1][3] Sales Performance - From January to October, the sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing nationwide decreased by 6.8% and 9.6% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 9 and 11.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - Compared to the entire previous year, there has been an improvement in sales performance [3] Inventory Management - The inventory reduction of commercial housing is progressing steadily, with the nationwide unsold commercial housing area at 75,606 million square meters by the end of October, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters from the end of September, marking eight consecutive months of reduction this year [3] Funding Situation - The funding situation for real estate development companies has improved, with the year-on-year decline in funds received by these companies narrowing by 9.5 and 7.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year, respectively [3] Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently in a transitional phase, and adjustments will take time, with some indicators expected to fluctuate during this period [3] - The focus will be on implementing the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, actively constructing a new development model for real estate, and promoting high-quality development in the sector [3]

需要指出的是，当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，转型调整需要一定时间，在这个过程中，部 分指标会出现波动，对此要客观看待。下阶段，要按照党中央、国务院决策部署，落实好中央城市工作 会议精神，积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用力推动房地产市场高质量发 展。 编辑丨瑜见 第二，商品房去库存持续推进。随着控增量、优存量等房地产政策措施持续发挥作用，今年以来房地产 去库存稳步推进，10月末全国商品房待售面积75606万平方米，比9月末减少322万平方米，今年以来 连续八个月减少。 第三，房企资金有所改善。在"白名单"项目扩围增效等积极因素带动下，房地产开发企业到位资金降 幅收窄，1-10月房企到位资金同比降幅比去年同期和去年全年分别收窄9.5和7.3个百分点。 11月14日，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会 上表示，房地产一直是大家比较关注的领域。今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策， 积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。从统计数据来看，房地产市场虽有所波 动，但政策成效仍在继续显现。 第一，商品房销售降幅收窄。1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is crucial for economic stability and public welfare, with recent policies aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing housing needs for various demographics [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new development model in real estate, focusing on improving the systems for property development, financing, and sales [1]. - Historical trends from countries like Japan, the U.S., and the U.K. show that real estate markets undergo multiple cycles of fluctuation before stabilizing, indicating a potential long-term recovery path for China's real estate sector [3]. Group 2: Current Challenges - The Chinese real estate market has not experienced significant issues with mortgage defaults at the national level, but there are concerns about potential defaults by developers leading to increased non-performing loans in banks [4]. - The real estate industry is interconnected with various sectors, and prolonged instability could adversely affect the survival and development of upstream companies [5]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Macro-control policies should focus on stabilizing asset prices, injecting liquidity into the short-term money market, and providing capital through state-owned enterprises [5]. - Recent government measures include "guaranteeing delivery" of projects, relaxing purchase restrictions, and extending financing for existing projects, which have shown signs of effectiveness in stabilizing the market [5].

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance financial support to boost and expand consumption, focusing on policies that support personal credit repair and the implementation of financial measures like re-loans for affordable housing [1] Group 2: Leadership Changes - Zhang Suoquan has been appointed as the Chairman of Beijing Zhuzong Group, marking a significant leadership change that signals deeper reforms in Beijing's state-owned enterprises [2] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reprimanded Kaisa Group Holdings and several executives for failing to provide timely disclosures regarding major transactions and for not responding to inquiries within the required timeframe [3] Group 4: Real Estate Transactions - Poly Developments acquired a 50-acre residential land parcel in Chengdu for a base price of 1.107 billion yuan, with a floor price of 16,500 yuan per square meter, indicating a strategic move amidst industry pressures [4] Group 5: Financial Assistance - Financial Street Holdings announced a financial assistance package of 3.486 billion yuan to Wuhan Lianghu Peninsula Company, with a loan term until November 2030, aimed at supporting the company's operational needs [5][6]

(本文来自第一财经) 央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，下一阶段，构建多层次、多元化养老金融体系，支持 银发经济高质量发展，助力积极应对人口老龄化国家战略实施。强化金融支持提振和扩大消费作用，扩 大消费领域金融供给，研究实施支持个人修复信用的政策措施，挖掘释放消费潜力。着力推动保障性住 房再贷款等金融政策措施落地见效，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式。 ...