VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 专题 2 025年民营房企仍然面临多重发展困境，仍有部分民营房企抓紧机会，在保证流动性稳定的同时取得了一定的发 展。整体看来，传统的规模房企和中小房企都有各自的发展路径，均取得了一定的成功。 观点 快评｜中央经济工作会议：锚定"十五五"开局，以"稳楼市+深改革"筑牢高质量发展基石 行业筑底之时，民营房企突围之道 降稳预期之外，更需锚定行业可持续发展的长效支点 热销项目 | 11月沪杭深豪宅去化率居前, 复合优势好房子热销 1 2月新房成交绝对量预期回升，城市间、项目间分化还将持续加剧 行业透视 | 房企亲子社群 "内卷" 实录：从泳池到课堂，谁在承包孩子的成长 房企找到能够匹配自身资源，符合自身品牌定位的亲子类社群，是当前要做好社群运营的主要问题之一。 研报 土地周报 | 成交规模再创新高，溢价率小幅回落（12.1-12.7） 第4 9周土地供应规模延续回落，成交规模再创年内新高，土拍热度小幅回落。本周重点城市监测范围内，土地供 应建筑面积为 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风 险。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住 房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。此外，会议还 提出"高质量推进城市更新"。 在笔者看来，当前房地产市场正处于转型关键期，加快风险出清与构建发展新模式并行推进。此次会议 有关房地产的定调既锚定短期市场稳预期的核心目标，又夯实长期健康发展的制度基础，为2026年行业 发展划定清晰路径，释放出"稳市场、促更新、化风险"的清晰信号，有诸多亮点值得深思。 第一，以"控增量、去库存、优供给"为准绳，筑牢市场平稳运行根基。房地产市场的稳定，核心在于供 需关系的动态平衡，不仅要"控增量"，更要优化供给，各地需将市场交易情况与卖地规模及节奏挂钩， 给楼市更多时间和空间去消化存量房产。 这是一种"稳楼市"的长期考量，主要体现在以下两大方面。一是鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住 房，以地方政府专项债券资金收购存量闲置土地，既为市场存量房源提供刚性消化渠道，又从源头控制 无效供给扩张。据中指研究院监 ...

本报记者 张芗逸 对于明年经济工作重点任务，日前在京举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进表示，会议提出了着力稳定房地产市场的两种方式，"因城施策控增量、去库存、优 供给"，是从土地端及土地与商品房关系出发；"鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房"则倾向于商品房去库存工作，两者 均聚焦库存去化。 会议要求"深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设"。近年来，住房公积金政策已成为各地支持房地产发展的重 点政策，中指研究院数据显示，2025年以来全国各地出台的公积金优化政策超260条。 严跃进表示，当前，住房公积金制度改革空间大，资金充裕，应积极用足用好公积金政策。关键在于要探索将其与房地产 市场去库存、惠民生等工作相结合，如让公积金在首付支持上进一步发力，尽量覆盖购房首付成本并做好配套工作。 张波预计，2026年将推进住房公积金贷款额度优化、异地办理流程简化等创新，降低刚需群体的购房资金门槛。另外，住 房公积金可突破仅在买房租房住房层面的使用限制，更好发挥住房公积金作用。 当前，房地产 ...

■王丽新 第二，借城市更新"提质进阶"之力，加快构建房地产发展新模式。此次会议提出"高质量推进城市更新"。当前，多地已明 确城市更新与"稳楼市"的联动逻辑，即开展老旧小区改造、城中村整治等工作，修复存量住房价值、稳定资产价格预期，通过 货币化或房票安置释放购房需求。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。着力稳定房地产 市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推 动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。此外，会议还提出"高质量推进城市更新"。 在笔者看来，当前房地产市场正处于转型关键期，加快风险出清与构建发展新模式并行推进。此次会议有关房地产的定调 既锚定短期市场稳预期的核心目标，又夯实长期健康发展的制度基础，为2026年行业发展划定清晰路径，释放出"稳市场、促 更新、化风险"的清晰信号，有诸多亮点值得深思。 第一，以"控增量、去库存、优供给"为准绳，筑牢市场平稳运行根基。房地产市场的稳定，核心在于供需关系的动态平 衡，不仅要"控增量"，更要优化供给，各地需将市场交易情况与卖地规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" as a targeted deployment based on the assessment of market trends [1][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the end of October, the total unsold commercial housing area in China has decreased for eight consecutive months, yet still stands at 75,606 million square meters, indicating that inventory reduction remains crucial for stabilizing the market [4][14]. - The current urban development landscape in China has shifted from building on a "blank slate" to updating the "existing map," marking 2025 as a critical phase for deep adjustment and structural reshaping in the real estate market [3][13]. Group 2: Inventory Management Strategies - Future inventory reduction strategies will focus on "optimizing existing stock and controlling new supply." Encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing is expected to be a key measure to activate inventory, improve supply-demand relationships, and address housing difficulties for certain groups [5][15]. - Local governments, such as Guangzhou, are actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing purposes and are increasing their acquisition efforts [5][15]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Reforms - The conference highlights the need to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system to enhance its role and release market potential. Since 2025, over 260 policies related to the provident fund have been introduced nationwide, with expectations for further deepening of measures in 2026 to inject more "vitality" into housing consumption [7][17]. - The approach to controlling new supply is not merely about reducing land supply but involves optimizing the structure under total control, closely aligning with the construction of "good houses" [8][18]. Group 4: Quality Housing Development - The conference calls for the orderly promotion of "good house" construction, which has emerged as a key focus for high-quality development in the real estate sector. This involves not only product upgrades but also a reshaping of the industry value chain [9][19]. - The standard for "good houses" is expected to shift real estate companies from scale expansion to quality cultivation, emphasizing green low-carbon, smart home, and age-friendly design, thereby accelerating transformation and upgrading [10][20]. - The transition in the real estate sector is clear: moving away from high turnover and high leverage models towards a new phase focused on inventory operations and quality-first approaches, which is essential for fostering healthy industry development [10][21].

【工商银行：积极支持构建房地产发展新模式 助力有序化解地方政府债务风险】智通财经12月12日 电，中国工商银行党委传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议强调，要扎实做好"五篇大文章"，积极融 入强大国内市场，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。围绕服务高水平安全，积极 支持构建房地产发展新模式，助力有序化解地方政府债务风险。持续巩固深化全面风险管理体系，确保 资产质量基本稳定、各类风险总体可控。 转自：智通财经 ...

12月12日，国家金融监督管理总局党委召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，结合全国金融系统 工作会议部署要求，研究贯彻落实措施。 会议要求，因地制宜、分类施策，统筹推进防风险、强监管、促高质量发展各项工作，全力支持完成 2026年经济社会发展目标任务，为"十五五"开好局、起好步提供有力金融支撑。 要 点速览 深入推进中小金融机构减量提质 支持稳定房地产市场，进一步发挥城市房地产融资协调机制作用，助力构建房地产发展新模式 深入整治"内卷式"竞争，大力规范市场秩序 引导银行保险机构持续加大对国家重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融供给，努力提升经济金融适配 性 创新科技金融服务，稳步推进总局科技金融"四项试点"扩围增效 会议要求，全力支持完成2026年经济社会发展目标任务。 一是有力有序防范化解重点领域风险。坚定履行风险防控首位主责，着力化解存量风险，坚决遏制增量 风险，严守不"爆雷"底线。巩固拓展改革化险成果，深入推进中小金融机构减量提质。支持稳定房地产 市场，进一步发挥城市房地产融资协调机制作用，助力构建房地产发展新模式。指导银行保险机构按照 市场化法治化原则，积极化解地方政府融资平台金融债务风险。 二是着 ...

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of high-quality economic development and maintaining a stable yet progressive policy approach for the upcoming year [1][6]. Economic Analysis - The conference introduced five key principles for addressing the current economic situation: fully tapping economic potential, balancing policy support with reform innovation, ensuring effective management alongside flexibility, integrating investments in physical and human capital, and honing internal capabilities to face external challenges [2][4]. - The Chinese economy is transitioning into a phase dominated by stock economy, facing challenges such as external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances, yet the long-term positive trends remain intact [4][6]. Development Trends - The conference outlined the need for a new development model in real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [14][15]. - The emphasis on "new" concepts indicates a shift towards innovative approaches in various sectors, including the establishment of international technology innovation centers in key regions [10][11]. Policy Requirements - The conference highlighted the necessity of optimizing the "Two New" policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption upgrades, which have already shown significant results in driving consumer spending [8][9]. - The goal for GDP growth in 2026 is set at around 5%, supported by favorable internal and external conditions, including improved international relations and effective investment policies [6][7]. Debt Management - The conference reiterated the commitment to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, with a target to reduce hidden debts significantly by the end of 2024 [16][17].

央广网北京12月12日消息（记者张棉棉 李思默 王泽华）据中央广播电视总台中国之声报道，中央 经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，经济社会发展主要目标 将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步 伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜 能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内 需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力。 明年将纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开 局。2026年中国经济怎么干？ 会议认为， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on risk resolution and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5][8] - The overall tone of the conference is the most positive of the year, indicating a responsive approach to the industry's downward trend [14] - The policy shift from "stimulating demand" to "digesting inventory and optimizing supply" reflects a strategic change in real estate policy [14] Summary by Sections Economic Work Conference Insights - The conference held on December 11, 2025, updated its stance on real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and managing risks effectively [5][8] - Key measures include controlling new land supply, revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, and promoting the construction of quality housing [5][8] Policy Evolution - The shift in policy from "stimulating demand" to "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" has been noted since April 2024 [14] - The emphasis on "risk prevention" suggests that 2026 may see intensified contradictions within the real estate sector [14] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" [6] - Notable companies include Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, all showing potential for strong performance [6][17] Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies for investment, indicating a focus on both development and property management sectors [17]