1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term demand for stocking during the Double Festival can digest the current supply, and the price of the main apple futures ap2601 contract may remain strong in the short term [15][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 30, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8617 points, up 1.22% from the previous day. The full - day trading volume was 97,524 lots, and the open interest was 102,381 lots, a decrease of 5,415 lots from the previous trading day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All apple futures contracts rose, with a trading volume of 108,457 lots and an open interest of 111,461 lots, a decrease of 9,133 lots from the previous trading day [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Apple options had a full - day trading volume of 12,045 lots, a total open interest of 18,639 lots, an increase of 606 lots, and 0 lots exercised on the day [8] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - The spot price of apples was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,577 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 977 yuan/ton [9][10] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - In the western region, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples has been carried out one after another, the early - maturing Fuji apples have basically ended, and other mid - maturing varieties are being traded normally. In the Shandong production area, some Red Generals have entered the late stage, and small - vehicle merchants prefer the Red General apples with lower prices. The inventory of old Fuji apples is affected by other apple varieties, and the trading is slow [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - On September 30, the K - line of apple futures was a solid positive line, indicating that the bulls had the upper hand on that day [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - From the demand side, the stocking for the Double Festival has brought short - term incremental demand. The terminal gift - box procurement and the stocking in the wholesale market have gradually started, and the daily arrival volume of the three major wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased month - on - month. The willingness to purchase high - quality fruits is relatively strong. From a technical perspective, the moving averages are in a long - position combination, and the price of the main apple futures ap2601 contract may remain strong in the short term [15][16]

2025 年 10 月 10 日 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,375 | -2.63% | 3,350 | -0.74% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,325 | -2.72% | 3,308 | -0.51% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 109,080 | (43,041) | 107,006 | (25,859) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 51,283 | (3,626) | 83,597 | (8,100) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 44430 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and production cuts, with supply expected to increase and consumption remaining weak next week. The overall trend is a bullish one, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [3][7][8]. - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [15]. - The aluminum market is influenced by overseas monetary policy expectations, and prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [20][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost, and futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [26][27]. - The zinc market may be supported by overseas de - stocking, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [32][33][34]. - The lead market has a tight balance in the raw material end and uncertain production at the smelting end. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season. Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [39][40][41]. - The nickel market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation due to a large surplus in the next two years and limited impact from policy changes [44][46][47]. - The stainless steel market has a differentiated terminal demand, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [53][54][55]. - The tin market has a tight supply at the mine end, and short - term prices may oscillate with limited space. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][62][63]. - The industrial silicon market has strong short - term demand, and the strategy is to buy on dips [67][68][70]. - The polysilicon market is affected by supply - demand imbalance, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [73][74][75]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand situation in October, but may return to balance in November. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [77][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.19%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 31,427 lots to 564,600 lots [2]. - Spot: After the holiday, copper prices soared, and spot trading was sluggish. Premiums varied in different regions [2]. Important Information - As of October 9, the national mainstream copper inventory increased, and it is expected to increase next week due to supply increase and consumption weakness [3]. - On October 8, the Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Peruvian copper mine [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply disruptions and production cuts intensify the tightness of copper mines, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and prices are mainly affected by rigid demand [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 11,316 lots to 387,800 lots [11]. - Spot: Prices in different regions showed a downward trend [11]. Related Information - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased. National inventory increased, and there was a monthly supply surplus [12]. - The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased in September, and the industry's average profit decreased [13]. Logic Analysis - Supply continues to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation. Production cuts may occur in October or November, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to be weak [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract increased by 335 yuan to 21,090 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 38,408 lots to 500,500 lots [18]. - Spot: Aluminum ingot prices in different regions increased [18]. Related Information - The US government shut down, and economic data release was delayed. Domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and inventory increased after the holiday [18][19]. Trading Logic - Affected by overseas monetary policy expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term inventory accumulation [20][21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to rise in an oscillating manner [22]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [22]. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 300 yuan to 20,550 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 1,259 lots to 21,433 lots [25]. - Spot: Prices remained stable in different regions [25]. Related Information - The warehouse - receipt of aluminum alloy on the SHFE increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [25]. Trading Logic - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to drive the price of ADC12 spot [26]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 increased by 1.73% to 22,315 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased its positions by 13,700 lots to 221,200 lots [31]. - Spot: Trading was mainly among traders, and downstream enterprises had low willingness to receive goods [31]. Related Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday, and the Kipushi mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [32]. Logic Analysis - Overseas de - stocking may support prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing [33]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may be strong, and short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [34]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [34]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 1.09% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index decreased its positions by 991 lots to 71,900 lots [36]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light [36][38]. Related Information - Lead ingot inventory decreased, and the resumption of a lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed [39]. Logic Analysis - The raw material end is in a tight balance, and the smelting end has uncertain production. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [41]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [41]. Nickel Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract increased by 2,900 to 124,480 yuan/ton [43]. - Spot: Premiums of different brands of nickel remained stable or slightly increased [43]. Related Information - Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026. Indonesia adjusted the RKAB quota approval system, and Antam invested in a nickel project [44][46]. Logic Analysis - The nickel market has a large surplus in the next two years, and policy changes have limited impact. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [46]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [47]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [48]. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The Stainless Steel SS2511 contract increased by 75 to 12,860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The EU tightened steel import policies, a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from Taiwan, and an Indian stainless steel company put a new plant into operation [53][54]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is differentiated, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [55]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [56]. Tin Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 287,070 yuan/ton, up 2.99%, and positions increased by 13,345 lots to 70,056 lots [58]. - Spot: The market was inactive, and downstream replenishment willingness was low [58]. Related Information - PT Timah in Indonesia adjusted the tin sand purchase price and payment method, and the government cracked down on illegal mining [59]. Logic Analysis - The US government shutdown and Indonesian mining crackdown have limited impact on supply. The mine end is still tight, and short - term supply shows improvement signs [62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may oscillate with limited space, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [63]. - Options: Wait and see [64]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The Industrial Silicon 2511 contract oscillated and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton [65]. - Spot: Spot prices were at a premium to futures [66]. Related Information - Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [67]. Comprehensive Analysis - Affected little by the external market, with strong short - term demand, the strategy is to buy on dips [68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [70]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options [70]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The Polysilicon 2511 contract first fell and then rose, closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day's settlement price [72]. - Spot: Spot prices were stable [72]. Related Information - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells [73]. Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand is bearish for the market, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [74]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy low after a sufficient callback [75]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread between 2511 and 2512 contracts [75]. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options [75]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 200 to 73,340 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 670 to 42,379 tons [76]. - Spot: Spot prices remained stable [76]. Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in September, the US terminated energy projects, a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state batteries, and a large lithium deposit was discovered in Germany [77][78]. Logic Analysis - Supply - demand is tight in October but may return to balance in November. October may be a critical turning point [79]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Wait and see [81].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 研究员: | 林静宜 | 期货从业资格号F03139610 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 助理研究员: | 徐天泽 | 期货从业资格号F03133092 | | 塑料产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7077 | -76 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7077 | -76 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7106 | -86 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7158 | -62 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 264961 | 107880 持仓量(日,手) | 546305 | 20384 | | | 1-5价差 | -29 | 10 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 430131 | 8535 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemptions and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%, but demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, the holiday affected terminal demand, and tariff disruptions affected market confidence. However, the expectation of post-holiday demand recovery, combined with the rebound of furnace materials, may support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the green bar turned red. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,374,586 lots, up 24,718 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -23,217 lots, up 21,390 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: -7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 46,314 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 190 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 84 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.06 million tons, down 0.23 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 663.11 million tons, up 1.73 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.27%, down 0.20% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.63%, down 0.25% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2329 million tons, down 0.014 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.58%, down 0.37% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.2930 million tons, up 0.2992 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 0.38 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, up 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, up 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, up 0.6923 million tons [2]. - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, global shipyards received 18 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 13 orders, South Korean shipyards received 4 orders, and Finnish shipyards also received relevant orders [2].

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6818 | -17 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 181486 | -31574 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 367418 | 17057 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 6818 | -17 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 336620 | 3839 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -11914 | 7703 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 379332 | 9354 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 800 | 800 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7120 | -4 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) 市场价:苯乙烯:东北地区:主流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.19%. Currently, rebar supply is contracting, but the positive effect is weak under high inventory. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices are prone to downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a fluctuating manner, with a daily increase of 0.37%. During the holiday, the production of plate mills was stable, the supply pressure was high, demand was weak, the fundamentals were weak, inventory increased significantly, and prices continued to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 0.96%. During the holiday, the overseas commodity market atmosphere was warm, supporting the ore price. However, ore supply returned to a high level, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals were accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price was expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The WTO significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the 1.8% forecast in August. The growth rate of global service exports is expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties spreading to more economies and industries pose major downward risks [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. The heavy - truck market has achieved six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to September [7]. - From January to September 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network announced more than 120 anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings against Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties include carbon steel alloy wire rods, steel fences, large - diameter welded pipes, etc. [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,210 yuan, and the national average price is 3,258 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average price is 3,398 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,060 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 802 yuan. The sea freight from Australia is 10.34 yuan, and from Brazil is 25.46 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.29 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 103.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,096 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 823,683 lots, a decrease of 136,145 lots, and the open interest is 1,908,129 lots, an increase of 34,297 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,286 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume is 369,788 lots, a decrease of 141,323 lots, and the open interest is 1,374,586 lots, an increase of 24,718 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 790.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.96%. The trading volume is 240,766 lots, an increase of 45,587 lots, and the open interest is 459,565 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production conditions (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][20][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: During the holiday, the spot price of construction steel was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to improve marginally. The production of construction steel mills was stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly. Considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term production increase momentum is weak, and the supply will run stably at a low level. However, the inventory increase pressure during the holiday is large, and the positive effect is weak. The pre - holiday demand improved due to downstream restocking, but both supply and demand are at low levels in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is expected to be insufficient. The steel price is prone to downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: During the holiday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil weakened, inventory continued to increase, the production of plate mills was weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was at a high level, and the inventory was relatively high. There was also off - balance - sheet production transfer, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil began to weaken, and high - frequency indicators continued to decline. Although the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products returned to a high level, due to the accumulated industrial contradictions, it was still likely to drag down the demand for hot - rolled coil. Coupled with limited improvement in external demand, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swap fluctuated higher, and the spot price increased. However, the pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of iron ore weakened. The production of steel mills was stable, the terminal consumption of ore remained at a high level, and the demand performance was acceptable, supporting the ore price. However, the positive effect of restocking was weakening, and the contradictions in the steel market were accumulating. The post - holiday demand may weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports returned to a high level, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered. The iron ore supply returned to a high level. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [36].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Short - term fundamental contradictions of natural rubber are not prominent, and it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [1]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan/ton (-1.72%), the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.34%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 205 (56.19%) [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 75 (214.29%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 (-100.00%), and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30 (-300.00%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased by 2.00 (-0.43%), Indonesia's decreased by 8.50 (-4.30%), India's increased by 5.00 (11.11%), and China's increased by 12.20. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58 (-0.08), and that of all - steel tires was 65.72 (0.06). The domestic tire production in August increased by 859.00 (9.10%), the tire export quantity decreased by 364.00 (-5.46%), and the total import quantity of natural rubber increased by 4.60 (9.68%) [1]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 (-1.01%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 908 (-2.11%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry does not have a continuous negative feedback drive for the time being, and over - bearish views are not recommended. In the fourth quarter, the actual implementation of policies in each region and the inventory preparation of downstream industries should be tracked [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, glass 2505 decreased by 20 (-1.49%), glass 2509 decreased by 20 (-1.41%), and the 05 basis increased by 20 (15.87%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, soda ash 2505 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), soda ash 2509 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), and the 05 basis increased by 17.0 (25.76%) [4]. - **Supply Volume**: From September 19th to September 26th, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 1.5 (-2.02%), the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.1 (-0.47%), and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: From September 19th to September 26th, the glass factory inventory decreased by 67.5 (-1.10%), the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.2 (-2.33%), and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.9 (10.69%) [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 30 (-3.57%), and the basis of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 30 (-2.63%) [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 40 (400.00%), the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 10 (2.50%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (9.09%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 (9.10%), the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 3.36 (19.78%), the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 0.14 (2.41%), and the Sichuan industrial silicon production decreased by 0.08 (-1.49%). The national operating rate increased by 6.07 (10.86%), the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 8.02 (15.25%), the Yunnan operating rate increased by 14.50 (44.09%), and the Sichuan operating rate increased by 7.33 (19.83%) [5]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1.40 (-11.63%), the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.09 (2.91%), and the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.07 (3.06%) [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View After the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. Given the support of the spot price, the fluctuation range may be between 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the specific schedule and implementation details of the industry's state - reserve policy, the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises in October, as well as the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic module factories [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the average price of N - type re - fed material remained unchanged, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 80.00 (-6.30%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract increased by 80 (0.16%), the spread between the current month and the first - continuous decreased by 205 (-91.11%), and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous decreased by 60 (-2.40%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.14 (-1.01%), and the polysilicon production increased by 0.01 (0.32%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 (-1.29%), the polysilicon import volume increased by 0.01 (5.11%), and the polysilicon export volume decreased by 0.01 (-3.92%) [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.20 (10.78%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.64 (-3.79%), and the polysilicon contract increased by 140.00 (1.76%) [6].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铝：保持看多方向 氧化铝：存在分歧 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | -50 | -5 | 50 | 220 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20765 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2687 | 17 | 41 | ୧୧ | 142 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 123088 | -9837 | -210 | -11486 | 21390 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 190531 | -13327 | -34917 | -46756 | -8413 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 14458 | -2695 | 7 ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250930: Low-level Fluctuation [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 97,757 lots (-65,749), and the open interest was 83,149 lots (-735). LME nickel rose 0.99%. The spot market trading was okay, and the basis premium narrowed. With weak rebound of non-ferrous metals following copper and weak nickel fundamentals and inventory pressure, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - On September 29, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 163,211 lots (-12,046), and the open interest was 87,251 lots (-11,471). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost - end and the inventory pressure is not significant, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 120,820 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 121,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 121,270 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 121,440 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan [2]. - Shanghai silver futures trading volume on September 29 was 97,757 lots, a decrease of 65,749 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 83,149 lots, a decrease of 735 lots [2]. Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price on September 29 was 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,175 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,200 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. - Nickel bean average price on September 29 was 123,325 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory on September 29 was 25,057 tons, a decrease of 96 tons from the previous day. LME nickel total inventory was 231,312 tons, an increase of 1,188 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 12,785 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2]. - Shanghai stainless steel futures active contract trading volume on September 29 was 163,271 lots, a decrease of 12,046 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 98,722 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots [2]. Spot Market - 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price on September 29 was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless steel inventory on September 29 was 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons from the previous day. The 300 - series stainless steel social inventory last week was 596,200 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2].