本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者叶青 北京报道 2月2日至2月10日，COMEX黄金期货呈现"探底回升、高位震荡"的强势走势，价格重心大幅上移，成功 突破并企稳于5000美元/盎司核心博弈关口，地缘避险情绪升温、美元走弱及多空资金博弈成为影响行 情的核心因素。据悉，此轮区间行情中，金价先于2月2日触及区间最低点4400美元/盎司，随后快速反 弹。 2月3日，受地缘风险升温带动，避险买盘集中入场，金价强势反弹并逐步逼近5000美元关口；2月10 日，金价通过高位震荡进一步巩固走势，一度冲至5100美元/盎司，截至2月10日23时10分，COMEX黄 金价格报收于5085美元/盎司。从驱动因素来看，地缘避险情绪升温是金价反弹的核心推手，直接带动 多轮上涨行情；美元走弱则间接支撑金价上行，推动价格重心整体上移。 美伊博弈升级 据央视新闻，当地时间2月10日，伊朗空军司令阿米尔·瓦赫迪表示，伊朗空军目前处于最高级别战备状 态，"十二日战争"给伊朗留下宝贵经验，帮助伊朗部队根据新型威胁重塑作战能力。阿米尔强调，伊朗 空军已做好充分准备，一旦发生任何侵略行为，将予以坚决果断的回应。 据悉，以色列总理府2月7 ...

3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性不大 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：今日国债期货均震荡整理。由于贵金属、股市的波动风险有所降温，国债的避险需求有所 减弱。且短期内美联储降息预期放缓，加上央行货币宽松政策以结构性降息为主，短期内全面降息的 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and new energy vehicles[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-Spring Festival, while southbound capital is shifting from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banks[1] Support Levels - Short-term adjustments are expected to find strong support in the 5100-5250 point range, which aligns with the 250-day moving average and the starting point of the 2025 market rally[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] Asset Performance - For the week of January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 by 0.36%[2] - In commodities, WTI crude oil increased by 2.75%, while SHFE rebar fell by 0.66%[2] Inventory Levels - Current crude oil inventory is at 44,684 million tons, up by 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory has increased by 213,515 tons to 145,342 tons[3] Fund Behavior - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings rose to 3,493 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-11 静待关键数据，铂钯持稳整理 据华尔街⻅闻消息，美国1⽉⾮农就业报告因上周国会短暂预算纠纷，推 迟⾄本周三发布，此外，本周五还将发布1⽉CPI数据。在两⼤关键经济数 据出炉前，市场维持观望态度，铂⾦与钯⾦价格呈现窄幅震荡⾛势。据同 花顺数据，截⾄2026年2⽉10⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价545.05元/ 克，跌幅0.50%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为438.15元/克，跌幅1.06%。 铂观点：美国就业与通胀数据将揭晓，铂金窄幅震荡 主要逻辑：短期来看，当前欧洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地 缘问题反复、美联储降息预期波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交 投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通 道中，特朗普造成的美联储独立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美 元信用走弱的长期趋势延续，有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本 周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长期我们维持价 格震荡偏强预期。 钯观点：关 ...

与此同时，利率期货市场对降息的押注明显升温。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，交易员目前预计 美联储在下个月降息25个基点的概率为19.6%，高于前一交易日的17.2%。此外，市场对今年累计降息 三到四次的预期也有所上升，明显高于美联储官员此前释放的政策信号。 EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco在报告中指出："12月零售销售报告相当糟糕。虽然部分高收入 家庭在假期期间仍保持较强消费能力，大多数消费者的支出更加谨慎，并越来越依赖信用卡和储蓄来维 持开支。" 周二公布的美国12月零售销售数据意外疲软，削弱了市场对美国经济增长的信心，推动美国国债价格持 续上涨、收益率进一步回落。数据显示，美国消费者在去年年底的支出动能明显减弱，引发市场对今年 经济增长、通胀以及利率路径的重新评估。 数据显示，12月零售销售环比持平，远低于市场此前预期的增长0.4%，也明显弱于11月0.6%的增幅。 这一结果表明，美国消费者支出在年末明显"熄火"，加剧了市场对经济增长放缓的担忧。分析人士认 为，这可能意味着今年利率与通胀的运行路径将低于此前预期。 Infrastructure Capital Advis ...

Market Overview - On February 10, 2026, the global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with London gold prices surpassing $5050, closing at $5053.12 per ounce, a daily increase of 0.35%. Silver prices rose even more dramatically, reaching $83.575 per ounce, a jump of 4.71% [1][3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold T D price of 1125.86 yuan per gram, up 0.79%, while the main silver contract surged to 20934 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.24% increase [1][3] Consumer Behavior - In Beijing, major jewelry stores adjusted their gold prices, with 24K gold jewelry reaching 1560 yuan per gram, marking the third price increase within the month [3] - Consumers are showing increased interest in silver investments, with reports of tight inventory for silver bars and coins, leading to potential delivery delays [3][8] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer purchasing behavior, with many non-essential buyers opting to wait, while demand from wedding and gift purchases remains strong [14] Price Volatility - The price fluctuations are attributed to multiple factors, including speculative trading in the Chinese market and a reduction in hedge fund long positions in gold, which fell by 23% to 93,438 contracts, the lowest in 15 weeks [6] - The macroeconomic environment is changing, with expectations of a slowdown in U.S. job growth and a high unemployment rate, reinforcing market predictions for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to sustain high levels of risk aversion among investors [6] Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing unique dynamics due to its smaller market size compared to gold, leading to amplified volatility with equivalent capital inflows [8] - The World Silver Association reported a consistent supply deficit of over 4000 tons annually in the last five years, with demand from the photovoltaic industry growing at an annual rate of 15% [8] - The industrial demand for silver is being reshaped, particularly with AI servers consuming 2 to 3 times more silver than traditional servers, while companies are actively seeking alternative materials due to rising silver prices [10] Investment Trends - The futures market reflects a division among participants, with some predicting a price support range for silver between $75 and $80, while others forecast a target price of $170 per ounce for the year [10] - There is a notable increase in physical gold purchases, with banks reporting long queues for gold buying, while simultaneously tightening investment thresholds for gold accumulation products [12] - The trading habits are evolving, with a significant increase in the use of safety deposit boxes as clients seek to secure their gold investments amid rising prices [12]

来源：智通财经 现货黄金价格重回5000美元上方，现货白银价格重新站上80美元。 继2月9日亚市盘中突破5000美元后，当日现货黄金价格继续上涨，收盘交投于5060美元/盎司附近。不 过，2月10日开盘后现货黄金再度出现回调，一度跌破5000美元，截至发稿跌0.38%，报5039.812美元/ 盎司；现货白银同样在大幅震荡，2月9日一度大涨8%站上83美元，截至发稿报82.338美元/盎司，跌 1.24%。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5039.812 -18.991 -0.38% 16.72% | | | 伦敦银现 | 82.338 -1.035 | -1.24% 15.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 5059.6d -19.8 | -0.39% 16.00% | | COMEX白银 | 81.595d -0.639 | -0.78% 14.95% | 消息面上，本周是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，陆续会公布非农数据和CPI，市场预估美国即将发布疲 软的就业报告，从而提高美联储降息预期。美国白宫国家 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 贵金属日报 2026年02月10日 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 贵金属震荡反弹，总体波动平淡。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经 济委员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续,地缘仍存 在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段,观望等待波动率下降。 白银方面,随着伊朗地缘冲击延缓，内外权益市场回暖,市场风险偏好出现了短期修复,对应金银比出现回 暖,短期仍有一定反弹空间。 铂兜:短期市场情绪脆弱,资金继续减仓，在金、银高位调整背景下，铂兜溢价空间被大幅压缩，投资需求 减退,盘面有望从交易预期转向交易现实。汽车尾气催化剂领域的需求拖累依然存在,铂、肥短期仍存下调 空间。但铂把日间波动较大，参与难度高，叠加春节长假临近，观望为宜。 美元走势已成为金价的主要驱动因素,而市场对美国经济数据疲软的预期进一步放大这一效应。美元疲软并 非孤立现象，而是与美国债市收益率的小幅回落密切相关。周一10年期国债收益率下跌至4.1 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver markets experienced significant fluctuations, with spot gold dropping over 0.4% and silver declining more than 2% amid rising market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak US employment data expectations [2] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced optimized refinancing measures to support quality listed companies, enhancing efficiency and directing resources towards new industries [2] - Trump's proposal to exempt tech giants from chip tariffs led to a rally in tech stocks, with Oracle's shares rising over 9% [2] Group 2 - Warren Buffett's investment in Japanese stocks has nearly doubled, with a market value exceeding $41 billion, reflecting a significant gain since his initial investment of approximately $13.8 billion [3] - The restructuring of Suning Holdings is progressing, with Anhui State-owned Assets Management planning to acquire a controlling stake in Suning [3] - The humanoid robot industry is poised for growth, with several companies partnering with the Spring Festival Gala, indicating a shift towards broader market opportunities [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the film and short drama sectors performing well, while the medical beauty and aerospace equipment sectors faced declines [4] - US stock markets closed higher, led by tech stocks, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, as investors await key economic data [5] - Concerns regarding the optical module market are deemed misinterpreted, as both CPO and pluggable optical modules are expected to coexist in the long term [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that the Fed's balance sheet needs to be reduced, but this should not prevent large-scale asset purchases during economic crises [1][6] - Milan emphasized that reducing the balance sheet will decrease the Fed's presence in financial markets and provide policymakers with options for future crises [1][6] - He mentioned that while he supports a gradual reduction of the balance sheet, it cannot be implemented immediately due to regulatory hurdles [1][6] Group 2: Currency Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Japan's more expansionary fiscal stance is likely to weaken the yen rather than support it, as increased government spending amplifies Japan's structural yield disadvantage [2][7] - The firm anticipates that the implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate will rise again as investors refocus on the interplay between fiscal policy, yield differentials, and political risks [2][7] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the USD/JPY could move towards and potentially break the 160 level, with the risk of official intervention becoming a key consideration if the exchange rate remains in that range [2][8] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a three-day high, with current trading around 5040, driven by renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions [3][9] - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks also provides support for gold prices [3][9] - Market participants are advised to monitor resistance around 5100 and support near 4950 [3][9] Group 4: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Trends - The USD/JPY pair experienced a pullback after reaching a high, falling below the 156.00 mark and trading around 155.30, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index due to Fed rate cut expectations [4][10] - The USD/CAD pair declined, dropping below the 1.3600 level and trading around 1.3560, primarily due to the dollar index falling below 97.00 amid Fed rate cut expectations and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [5][11]