Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce before a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment. Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall bullish trend for silver remains intact, supported by global market instability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, had an asset size nearing $109 billion as of October 2025. The annual weight adjustment period for 2026 is from January 8 to 14, with silver's weight in the index being reduced from 9% to just below 4% [2]. - Citigroup estimates that the sell-off for both gold and silver will amount to approximately $7 billion, with silver's asset management scale being reduced from $12.9 billion to a target of $6 billion [2]. - Morgan Stanley has quantified the sell-off pressure on silver, indicating it will face more significant selling pressure in 2026 compared to 2025, while gold's sell-off is expected to account for about 3% of its total open interest in the futures market [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Technical Adjustments - January is traditionally a month of intense market dynamics for gold investors, with an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty trading days of the new year. However, the large-scale technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this seasonal trend [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for various precious metal futures, including silver, for the third time in a month, indicating increased market volatility and potential profit-taking [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented multiple risk control measures for silver futures, including adjustments to margin ratios and trading limits, aimed at curbing speculative trading and promoting rational investment [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some institutions are positioning themselves to short silver, anticipating significant sell-off pressure due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's reweighting. Analysts from TD Securities have established short positions in silver futures, expecting prices to drop significantly in the coming months [6][7]. - Despite recent price volatility, the overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic for the precious metals sector in 2026, with analysts suggesting that any weakness in silver could present buying opportunities [8]. - The silver market is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may increase demand for silver [8]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market has been facing a significant supply-demand gap, with an average annual shortfall of over 130 million ounces since 2021, leading to a cumulative deficit of nearly 800 million ounces [9]. - The current low inventory levels in major markets such as London, New York, and Shanghai, which have reached a ten-year low, further highlight the supply constraints in the silver market [9]. - The historical gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may have more upside potential compared to gold, with analysts projecting that if the ratio returns to historical lows, silver prices could reach as high as $135 per ounce or even $309 per ounce under extreme conditions [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of the U.S. non-farm payroll report and its potential impact on gold prices and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1][2][3][4] - The market expects the U.S. to add approximately 60,000 jobs in December, with average hourly earnings projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and the unemployment rate to slightly decrease to 4.5% [1][2] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. involvement in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, may provide support for gold prices despite a strong dollar [1][4] Group 2 - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for the December non-farm payroll numbers, ranging from 25,000 to 155,000, with a consensus around 55,000 to 73,000 jobs expected [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts a job growth of about 70,000, aligning with general expectations, and suggests that a result above 125,000 could delay the anticipated timing of the Fed's first rate cut [3] - The decline in job openings, as indicated by the JOLTS report, suggests a weakening labor demand, which may lead to a further slowdown in job growth in the coming months [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated widely. Silver price volatility intensified significantly, gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio rose. Geopolitical risks in Latin America boosted the safe - haven property of gold. US labor market data showed differentiation, but the service sector PMI was unexpectedly strong. If the Venezuela situation does not cool down quickly next week, non - farm payrolls are weak, and Fed officials signal rate cuts, the precious metals price center may remain high. In the medium - term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short - term correction risks should be watched out for. The recommended trading ranges for next week are 4300 - 4500 dollars per ounce for London gold and 70 - 85 dollars per ounce for London silver [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - This week, the precious metals market was affected by long - position profit - taking and fluctuations in Fed rate - cut expectations. The US taking tough action against Venezuela strengthened global geopolitical risk concerns. US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, still at a historically low level. In October, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month. US labor market data was divided, with ADP private employment and JOLTS job openings weaker than expected, but the ISM services index in December unexpectedly rebounded. Looking ahead to next week, if the Venezuela situation persists, non - farm payrolls are poor, and Fed officials hint at rate cuts, precious metals prices may remain high, but short - term correction risks due to concentrated long - position liquidation should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, a dip - buying strategy is recommended [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the precious metals market continued to oscillate strongly at a high level. As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 rose 9.70% week - on - week, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2602 rose 2.96% week - on - week. This week, the net positions of foreign gold and silver ETFs had slight outflows. As of January 8, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.40% month - on - month. As of December 30, 2025, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both decreased. This week, the basis of gold and silver strengthened. As of January 8, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.46 yuan per gram, with a basis ratio of 0.05%; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 970 yuan per kilogram, with a basis ratio of 5.26%. This week, the gold inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges increased, while silver inventories decreased [6][10][11] 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - As of November 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand increased. China's silver import volume was 263,505.88 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 9.90%, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 21.23%. Due to the growth in silver demand for semiconductors, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to stabilize. As of November 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [32][36][38] 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 4%; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The silver supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 2%; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 26% [44][48][50] 3.3.3 Gold Supply and Demand - According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, and a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [54] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield stabilized and rebounded. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased. The US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy gold, about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons respectively [58][62][66]

中国持续实施宽松货币政策，多地围绕住房公积金、购房补贴等出台新政激活住房需求。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝震荡拉涨，LME三个月北京时间14：50报于3134.5美元/吨，较上一交易日 结算价涨46美元/吨，涨幅1.49%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约走势先抑后扬，午后涨幅加速；开盘价报23900元/吨，盘中最高 24645元/吨，最低23430元/吨，昨日结算24015元/吨，尾盘收至24385元/吨，涨370元，涨幅1.54%；沪 铝主力月2602合约全天成交量553539手减少9598手，持仓量331920手增加131693手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格24010-24050元/吨，涨30元，贴水115-贴水75，涨55元； 广东现货24075-24125元/吨，涨70元，贴水50-贴水0，涨80元；上海地区24000-24040元/吨，涨30元， 贴水125-贴水85，涨55元。 宏观层面，美国首次申请失业救济人数达20.8万人，虽较前值19.9万人小幅回升，但低于市场预期的 21.2万人，显示劳动力市场基本面稳固。美联储报告显示，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨3.4%，高于1 ...

CME交易所上调保证金及重要商品指数下调金银权重，或对金价构成潜在利空，但地缘政治风险引发 的避险情绪仍为金价提供支撑。此外，美国最新ADP就业数据表现不佳，增强了市场对美联储降息的预 期，目前市场预期明年将降息两次。本周，投资者需重点关注非农数据的公布，以进一步判断金价走 势。 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-07 1131.77 0.50 2026-01-06 1132.27 0.00 【要闻回顾】 摘要1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日） 收4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00 美元/盎司。 1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日）收 4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1003.13元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.96美元，跌幅 0.19%，日内高位震荡。当日开盘价1004.76元/克，最高价1006.44元/克，最低价999.51元/克。 高盛在最新研报中指出，即将公布的美国2025年12月非农就业报告不太可能显著改变市场对美联储政策 的预期，除非数据出现重大意外。当前市场已稳固定价美联储将在年中开启宽松周期，首次降息预计在 4月下旬，幅度为25个基点。 高盛预计12月非农新增就业约7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管市场私下预测存在小幅上行风险，但 该行认为接近预期的结果将强化现有宏观叙事，而非打乱节奏。该行强调，只有劳动力数据出现"相当 戏剧性"的上下波动，才可能显著提前或推迟降息时点。 从市场反应看，高盛将7万至10万的区间视为对股市最有利的结果——既反映经济持续扩张，又不引发 通胀担忧或威胁降息周期，支持"经济逐步放缓而非突然停滞"的观点。若数据低于5万人，可能被解读 为低于维持经济稳定的就业增长水平，引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧;若高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场 将首次降息预期推迟至6月。 周四金价在亚欧时段维持小范围震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The US initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly higher than the previous value but still below market expectations, indicating a stable labor - market. The Fed's report shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.4%. There is a large divergence among Fed officials, making the interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - month Fed meeting unclear. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,150 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,255 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 12,211 tons. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market is in the inventory accumulation stage. An orderly adjustment is beneficial for future market trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Ore reserves are high, and the short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. The possibility of large - scale alumina plant overhauls in the new quarter is not high. The news of the NDRC's encouragement of industrial restructuring has reduced the downward pressure on the market, and the far - month contracts are expected to maintain a premium. After a significant rebound, the confidence of long - positions has weakened, and there is new resistance to further price increases. Attention should be paid to the US interest - rate cut rhythm and downstream restocking rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 3.34% and Shanghai nickel fell 4.48%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota to support prices, but the actual quota implementation needs time. As prices rise rapidly, the production of primary nickel has increased by 18.5% month - on - month, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment and look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The macro - situation affects copper prices. The labor - market data and inflation expectations influence the Fed's interest - rate decision. The inventory changes in different markets and the slowdown in terminal demand due to high prices are key factors. An orderly adjustment is seen as positive for future trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of various aluminum products trended weakly overnight. The supply - side situation of alumina, including ore reserves, overhaul plans, and new - quarter agreements, affects the market. The news of industrial restructuring has an impact on market sentiment, and there are challenges to price increases [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The price decline is accompanied by inventory increases. Indonesia's policy to adjust the nickel quota is a significant factor. The increase in primary nickel production may lead to hedging pressure, and the market should focus on sentiment and cost - based buying opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste - copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory in LME decreased, while in SHFE and Comex it increased. The social inventory increased slightly, and the import loss widened [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of lead and related products decreased. The inventory in SHFE increased, and the import profit decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum products such as in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import loss widened [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel products decreased, and the inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import profit situation changed significantly [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.1%. The inventory in SHFE increased, while the social inventory decreased slightly. The import loss decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.9%. The inventory in SHFE decreased, and the import loss increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which help to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [13][12] - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2026, which are useful for understanding the term - structure of the futures market [14][18] - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, reflecting the supply situation in the international market [21][26] - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, indicating the supply situation in the domestic futures market [27][32] - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026, which can help analyze the overall market supply and demand [33][38] - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, copper roughing processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026, which are important for evaluating the profitability of the smelting industry [39][44] 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won many industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have also won industry - recognized honors and provide high - quality research services [46][47]

来源：金十数据 从市场角度看，高盛将非农就业数据落在7万至10万区间描述为对股市最有利的结果，这与经济持续扩 张、既不会重新引发通胀担忧、也不会威胁降息周期的情形相符。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐步 放缓而非突然停滞的观点。 相比之下，非农就业数据若低于5万人，则将被解读为低于经济维持稳定的就业增长估计水平，可能因 引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧而令投资者不安。 高盛表示，周五晚间即将发布的美国2025年12月份的非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政 策的预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为当前的市场定价已稳固锚定在年中开启宽松政策的路径上。 在致客户的研究报告中，高盛预计这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管 非正式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险，但该行认为，一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现 有的宏观经济叙事。 市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息，首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。 高盛表示，需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外，才能显著地将这一时点提前或推后。 另一个极端是，高盛表示，若数据高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场重新评估美联储首次降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report covers various sectors including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping. It provides analysis and forecasts on the market trends of different varieties, suggesting potential investment opportunities and risks in the market. For example, it anticipates a long - term upward trend for precious metals, a short - term strong performance for lithium carbonate, and an overall positive outlook for A - shares [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory 1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News Focus of the Day) - **International News**: US President Trump announced to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, aiming to lower mortgage rates. The US Senate passed a resolution restricting Trump's military action against a South American country without congressional authorization. The US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, slightly below market expectations [6][14]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, emphasizing the importance of Party leadership in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. China National Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China National Aviation Fuel Group were approved to implement a restructuring [7][8]. - **Industry News**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council plans to promote strategic and professional restructuring and high - quality mergers and acquisitions in 2026, with potential acceleration in new energy, energy conservation, environmental protection, and construction sectors [8][9]. 2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The S&P 500 rose 0.01%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.14%, and the Chinese A50 futures dropped 1.06%. ICE Brent crude oil increased 3.83%, and London gold spot rose 0.48%, while London silver fell 1.66% [10]. 3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Varieties) Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares are expected to form a long - term bullish pattern due to supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds stabilized and rose. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond declined. The central bank's open - market operations and economic data influenced the market. The new public - fund sales regulations eased concerns about bond - fund liquidity [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures rebounded. Trump's statement on South American oil and OPEC's compensation plan affected the market [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices declined. High inventory and reduced开工 rates led to a short - term weakening trend [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply constraints and stable tire production [4][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to rebound, but the upward momentum may slow down [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Attention is on the real - estate industry's recovery and supply - side changes [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Gold is supported by a weakening US dollar and central - bank purchases, while silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand influenced the market [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices declined. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand were the main factors [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices continued to correct. The US economic data and Fed's stance affected the market. Supply was stable, and demand was acceptable, but attention is on the impact of the approaching Spring Festival [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices reached new highs. Despite short - term fluctuations, prices are likely to rise due to strong demand and inventory structure [3][24]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by supply disruptions, iron - water production recovery, and pre - holiday restocking [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - ore prices may continue to be slightly bullish in the short term, with a small increase in supply and stable demand [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices fell at night. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, but the overall commodity atmosphere is positive [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Protein - meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected South American soybean harvest, but Chinese purchases provide some support [28][29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oil prices were weak. Palm - oil prices are affected by production concerns, while soybean - oil prices are influenced by potential soybean reserves and palm - oil prices [30]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to be volatile. International prices are weak, while domestic prices are supported by production costs [31]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are likely to be strong, supported by reduced planting area expectations and fast sales progress [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price of container shipping to Europe continued to decline, and the price inflection point at the beginning of the year may be confirmed [33][34].

Group 1 - The latest price of February gold futures is $4481.00 per ounce, down $6.90 from the previous close, reflecting a decline of 0.16% [1] - The trading range for the day is between $4485 and $4493.7 per ounce, with an opening price of $4489.30, which is higher than the previous close of $4487.90 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, with an average hourly wage growth of 0.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the unemployment rate is projected to slightly decrease to 4.5% [3] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts this month unless there is a negative job growth or the unemployment rate rises above 4.7% [3] - The report's release may be overshadowed by a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's "emergency" tariffs, potentially limiting immediate market volatility [3] Group 3 - February gold futures closed at $4436.00 per ounce, significantly down from $4475.6, indicating a short-term correction phase [4] - The price has effectively broken below the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI falling to around 50, shifting from a neutral to a balanced state [4] - Despite the significant increase in actual non-farm payroll data to 1.369 million, which exceeded the expected 690,000, gold prices did not experience dramatic fluctuations as the market had already priced in the positive news [4] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan maintain a target price for 2026 between $4900 and $5055, driven by ongoing central bank gold purchases and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4]