地缘政治方面，伊以停火协议虽然生效，但市场对其维持的信心不足。伊朗对美军基地的打击和以色列对德黑兰的空袭，都显示出局势的不确定性。这 种不确定性可能会对能源和黄金市场产生影响，咱们在投资时要做好风险管理。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3.31%，创5月13日以来最大单日涨幅。小马智行、新东方、金山云等个股表现突出。这主要得益于政策支持、美 联储降息预期和估值修复等因素。不过，中概股的持续性还得看政策的实际效果和企业基本面的改善，咱们要理性看待这波上涨。 各位朋友大家好，这里是帮主郑重的隔夜市场解读时间。接下来咱们来聊聊隔夜市场的那些大事，看看有哪些值得咱们关注的信号。 先说美股，那叫一个涨势如虹啊。三大指数收盘都涨超1%，道指创3月初以来新高，标普和纳指也创下2月下旬以来的新高。大型科技股多数上涨，英特 尔涨超6%，英伟达、奈飞、亚马逊也都涨超2%，不过特斯拉跌超2%，苹果小幅下跌。科技股七巨头整体表现不错，英伟达和亚马逊涨超2%，AMD更是 收涨6.83%，台积电ADR也刷新了收盘历史高位。这说明科技股的热度依然不减，尤其是AMD，最近可是出尽了风头。 说到AMD，那就不得不提它包揽亚马逊CPU热销榜 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月24日16时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.26%，沪银主力收涨0.09%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储出现7月降息声音。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，最新 以色列和伊朗已经同意停火。③货币属性方面，美联储鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，不太担心关税导致持续通胀。美联储沃勒称鉴 于近期通胀数据温和，应考虑在7月降息。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期 高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a three-month high of $105,977.82, driven by macro liquidity expectations and technological advancements in decentralized exchanges, particularly XBIT's unique features [1][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price surged over 6% in the last four hours, with trading volume increasing significantly, indicating heightened market sentiment [1]. - The recent price movement followed a "breakout-pullback-rebound" pattern, with the closing price above the previous resistance level of $99,222, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2]. Technological Innovations - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform showcased a 230% increase in large transactions as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, without the liquidity crises often seen in traditional exchanges [4]. - The platform's dynamic liquidity pool mechanism ensures optimal transaction prices even during extreme market conditions [4]. - XBIT's three core advantages include military-grade security through zero-knowledge proof technology, cross-chain asset interoperability, and a user-friendly design that simplifies complex trading operations [4]. Trading Strategies - Despite bullish momentum, significant historical resistance exists around $105,371, which could pose a risk of short-term price corrections [6]. - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive buying at support levels and cautious shorting if prices face resistance at higher levels [6]. Decentralized Exchange Growth - The trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) surpassed 35% for the first time, with XBIT emerging as a key player due to its innovative on-chain order book model [6]. - XBIT's "trade-to-mine" model has led to a 400% increase in its token value, creating a positive feedback loop for users [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term support for Bitcoin is expected from macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential ETF inflows, with a price target of $120,000 if resistance levels are broken [9]. - The emergence of advanced DEX platforms like XBIT is reshaping the cryptocurrency trading landscape, emphasizing the importance of security, transparency, and efficiency for investors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's economic data shows signs of weakness, yet the market's reaction remains limited, with the Euro experiencing a rebound after a gap down [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - The June HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone is at 50.2, unchanged from the previous month but below the market expectation of 50.5, indicating persistent weak economic growth [3]. - The Services PMI for June is reported at 50.0, up from 49.7 in May, suggesting a return to stability after a brief contraction, although growth has slowed to a three-month low [3]. - Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction at 49.4, with new orders showing the smallest decline in 13 months, marking the end of a three-year decline in new orders [3]. Manufacturing and Employment Insights - Eurozone manufacturers are still reducing procurement activities, but the pace is the slowest in three years, with an acceleration in job cuts compared to May [4]. - Input costs in manufacturing have decreased for three consecutive months, while output prices have been lowered for the second time [4]. Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The Euro's rebound is supported by short covering and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have raised expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The Euro is currently in an upward channel since March, facing significant resistance around 1.1630, with key support at 1.1412 [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish structure for the Euro against the Dollar, with critical support levels at 1.14-1.1380 [6].

Core Viewpoints - The support for gold prices from risk-hedging factors is expected to weaken due to easing geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The outlook for gold remains bullish in the long term despite short-term volatility, influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations [2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Minmetals Futures indicates that dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, such as Governor Bowman supporting rate cuts if inflation pressures are controlled, will drive silver prices stronger than gold [1] - UBS emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a diversification tool rather than a hedge against geopolitical events, maintaining a target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [3] - Heraeus analysts note that due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, gold is temporarily losing its appeal as investors shift towards white metals like silver and platinum [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down under high deficit pressures, but the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term lack of clear drivers [2] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates ongoing expansion, but significant price increases in manufacturing and services are raising inflation concerns [2] - The Eurozone's composite PMI has dropped to a five-month low, contrasting with the resilience of the U.S. economy, which may support the stabilization of the dollar [2]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impacting market sentiment and reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The ceasefire is set to last for 12 hours, with both parties confirming their acceptance of the agreement mediated by Qatar, contrasting with previous military actions that raised tensions [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, spot gold prices fell to $3342.59 per ounce, breaking below the $3350 mark, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand [1][3] - International oil prices also declined, with a drop of up to 6%, reaching a two-week low of $64.38 per barrel, indicating a significant easing of concerns regarding energy supply disruptions [1][3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy has become a focal point, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting possible rate cuts as early as July due to labor market concerns [4][5] - Despite the dovish signals, the immediate impact on gold prices is overshadowed by the reduction in geopolitical risk, with market pricing indicating a 23% probability of a rate cut in July, rising to 80% and 92% for September and October, respectively [4][5] Group 4: Economic Data and Inflation Risks - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. business activity, with rising input costs attributed to tariffs, and a slight year-on-year increase in existing home sales, indicating weak demand [5][6] - ING warns that renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to rising oil prices, which may increase inflationary pressures and complicate the Fed's ability to implement monetary easing [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold may test the $3300 support level, influenced by geopolitical developments and Fed policy divergence [8] - In the long term, uncertainties in the global economy, including trade protectionism and inflation pressures, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [8][10]

鲍曼鸽派言论引发市场热议除了地缘政治因素，美联储的货币政策动向对黄金价格同样至关重要。6月 23日，美联储副主席鲍曼意外发表鸽派言论，称最早可能在7月降息，因其对劳动力市场风险的担忧超 过了对关税引发通胀的顾虑。这一表态令市场哗然，因为鲍曼此前以鹰派立场著称。她的转向被视为美 联储内部对经济前景判断的分歧加剧。鲍曼的言论推动美国国债收益率下跌，两年期国债收益率降至 3.851%，十年期国债收益率跌至4.34%。美元指数也应声回落，下跌0.32%至98.45。黄金作为非收益资 产，通常在美元走弱和实际利率下降时表现强势。然而，停火消息对避险需求的打压盖过了降息预期的 利好，金价未能借机反弹。降息概率与通胀压力市场认为7月降息的可能性仅为23%，但9月和10月降息 的概率分别升至80%和92%。美联储主席鲍威尔将于本周二和周四将在国会作证，投资者期待从中获取 更多政策线索。尽管鲍曼和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比均表示关税对经济的冲击低于预期，但市场仍担忧 特朗普的贸易保护主义政策可能推高通胀，迫使美联储推迟降息。 亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡走弱，一度失守3350关口至3342.59美元/盎司，因美国总统特朗普宣布以色列 和 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the current market trend is the subtle shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, with officials acknowledging the necessity for interest rate cuts if core PCE inflation continues to converge towards the 2% target [3] - There is a significant divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot, with the futures market pricing in a more aggressive rate cut for 2024 than indicated by the Fed [3][4] - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to the interplay of Fed policy, tariff impacts, geopolitical risks, and economic data, leading to a potential re-evaluation of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold shows a critical resistance zone between 795-805 CNY/gram and a support level at 750-760 CNY/gram, with the effectiveness of these levels dependent on geopolitical developments [3] - The market is at a crossroads, balancing the certainty of the Fed's policy shift against the uncertainty of its execution, which could lead to significant price adjustments [4] - Traders should be cautious of two main risk points: overinterpretation of single policy signals leading to price overshooting and potential trend changes following key technical level breaches [4]

沪深 300 指数 6 月 23 日震荡趋强，收盘 3857.90，环比上涨 11.26。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（6 月 23 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.65%，收报 3381.58 点；深 证成指涨 0.43%，收报 10048.39 点；创业板指涨 0.39%，收报 2017.63 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11226 亿，较上 周五放量 549 亿。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 23 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1391.7 元，环比上涨 9.6。 6 月 23 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 818.2 元，环比上涨 12.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：产地煤价涨跌互现，煤矿成交有所好转，但焦价存下行预期，预计本周落地第四轮提降，焦企出货压 力较大，终端需求谨慎。 焦煤：部分事故影响的煤矿仍未复工，叠加环保影响，供应量持续收缩。受悲观预期影响，钢焦企仍保持谨 慎采购，但本周部分下游焦企适度增加采购量，煤矿销售压力缓解，部分去库明显。焦煤竞拍成交涨跌互现，市 场流拍率有所下 ...

文字早评 2025/06/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.65%，创指+0.39%，科创 50+0.38%，北证 50+1.54%，上证 50+0.41%，沪深 300+0.29%， 中证 500+0.61%，中证 1000+1.31%，中证 2000+1.94%，万得微盘+2.54%。两市合计成交 11226 亿，较上 一日+549 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在美国 22 日空袭伊朗三处核设施后，伊朗议会迅速通过"关闭霍尔木兹海峡"的提案，该海峡是海 湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，是全球最重要的石油 "咽喉要道"之一。 2、美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK 海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求这些企业今后需逐 案申请许可证。 3、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办 关于银行资本的会议。 资金面：融资额-82.33 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.66bp 至 2.8756%，十年期国债利率-0.20bp 至 1.6387%，信用利差 ...