Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have intensified, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing volatility in a high range, influenced by changes in risk sentiment, monetary policy differences, and macroeconomic expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Risk Sentiment - Risk sentiment remains a significant driver of capital flows, with investors tending to reduce risk assets and increase holdings in safe-haven currencies during periods of uncertainty [3] - The Japanese yen, as a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to gain support when risk appetite declines, thereby exerting pressure on the US dollar [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Differences - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan continues to impact the relative strength of their currencies, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months amid slowing economic growth and easing inflation [3] - In contrast, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-low interest rate environment, with cautious policy adjustments, affecting capital flows and the USD/JPY exchange rate [3] Group 3: Economic Data - Key economic indicators such as US inflation and employment reports are critical for market observation, with weak data potentially reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts, thereby weakening short-term support for the US dollar [3] - Japan's economic recovery remains moderate, with no significant upward movement in inflation, suggesting that aggressive policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has faced multiple resistance levels in the high range, indicating a weakening upward momentum [3] - A breakdown below key support levels could trigger further adjustments, while stabilization and a breakthrough of previous highs could signal a potential recovery in upward momentum [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/JPY exchange rate will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the performance of US economic data, and shifts in market risk appetite [4]

Fixed Income Research - The report highlights that the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats have heightened global risk aversion, leading to a reassessment of sovereign credit risks and an increase in default expectations. It recommends allocating to long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][4]. - The report notes that global government bond yields have declined across the board, with the U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields falling by 6.2 and 7 basis points, respectively. The TED spread has narrowed to -0.048%, indicating improved interbank liquidity [2][35]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%. The report attributes the widening yield spread to various factors, including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's offshore repo enhancements and the divergence between U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and domestic easing policies [3][36]. Industry Reports Construction Industry - The report indicates that the issuance of special bonds for local governments has decreased significantly, with no new bonds issued in the 41st week of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline in financing [7][8]. - The construction industry PMI for September 2025 is reported at 49.3%, showing a slight increase, while the new orders PMI is at 42.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [10]. Real Estate Industry - The report discusses a significant decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities, with new home sales down 55.7% week-on-week and 47.5% year-on-year [8]. - It highlights that the planned land acquisition amount has exceeded 610 billion RMB, with a notable decrease in the scale of new land acquisitions in the third quarter of 2025 [16][18]. Coal Industry - The report states that the price of thermal coal has stabilized, with the average price remaining at 713 RMB/ton. Inventory levels have increased, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising by 11.3% [19][20]. - It also notes fluctuations in coking coal prices, with some prices increasing while others have decreased, reflecting a mixed market response [20][21]. Company Reports Baolong Chuangyuan - The report indicates that Baolong Chuangyuan has achieved a revenue of 969 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 44.9% [22][24]. - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure, leading to improved gross margins and accelerated profit growth [23][25]. Xinhua Insurance - The report projects that Xinhua Insurance will see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with estimates ranging from 299.86 billion to 341.22 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [26][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved investment returns and an optimized asset allocation structure, with a projected net profit growth rate of 52.8% [28].

现货 白银周二突破53美元/盎司，再创历史新高。2025年初至今，白银已经累计飙涨84%，涨幅远超 黄 金的56%。高盛近日发表报告指，要对白银价格的上涨保持谨慎。分析师表示，白银的市场规模小、缺 乏央行支撑，使其波动性远高于黄金。一旦近期避险情绪出现变化，白银可能会面临比黄金更大的下行 风险。由于美联储可能会再降息，高盛预期白银中期很可能会继续上涨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The subsequent trend of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract will present a pattern of "short - term oscillation with long - term support." There are opportunities to go long on dips during the callback [3]. - The A - share market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. For Shanghai Gold, it's advisable to buy on dips instead of chasing short - term highs. For iron ore, high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. For glass, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. For eggs, there are short - term long - taking opportunities. For pulp, it's recommended to consider shorting on rebounds [8][13][16][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus: Shanghai Silver 2512 - The contract's price rise was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the reverse market structure caused by spot shortages, and the safe - haven premium from geopolitical conflicts. The price pullback was because of profit - taking near the $53 mark and the weakening of safe - haven demand due to the cease - fire agreement [3]. - Long - term support is solid as green industries like photovoltaics drive industrial demand to increase by 20% annually, and the structural supply - demand gap may last until 2026. The continuation of the Fed's easing cycle and the low gold - silver ratio still attract institutional capital allocation [3][4]. - Key data to track include the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, London silver inventory, and industrial demand data. Consider going long on dips [3][5]. Technical Analysis: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower today. The Shanghai Composite Index found support at 3850 points near the close. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Technical Analysis: Shanghai Gold - Shanghai Gold reached a new high with large intraday fluctuations. It's not advisable to chase long positions in the short term. Instead, consider buying on dips [13]. Technical Analysis: Iron Ore - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project. On the demand side, there has been no actual improvement at the terminal after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically. Technically, it's in a high - level wide - range oscillation, so high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [16][17]. Technical Analysis: Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The main future drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies, as well as supply - side clearance. Technically, after continuous declines, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization [20][21]. Technical Analysis: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, which restricts price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of $16.90 per chicken. There are short - term long - taking opportunities [23]. Technical Analysis: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has declined today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventory remains high, and the "Golden September" peak season was lackluster. Pulp is expected to remain weak, and it's recommended to short on rebounds [26].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is risk-off, with equities under pressure due to tensions between China and the US, particularly following China's sanctions on a South Korean shipbuilder [1][2] - Despite the overall decline in the S&P 500, approximately 56% of the stocks are in the green, indicating some internal market strength [1][2] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated around the 4% level, with recent dips below this threshold, reflecting a flight to safety amid the ongoing US government shutdown [3][4] - Technical traders are observing key support levels around 4% for the 10-year rate futures, with potential for yields to move lower if the government shutdown continues [5][6] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve - The ongoing government shutdown is impacting the availability of economic data, which may affect the labor market and consumption growth in the US [7][8] - The IMF has reported that while trade tensions have limited immediate impacts, they expect global growth to slow moving forward [9] Commodity Markets - Crude oil prices remain below $60 per barrel, with concerns about global growth, particularly in China, affecting demand [10][11] - Silver is experiencing volatility, with a structural shortage due to increased industrial demand, but traders are cautious about potential pullbacks at key price levels [15][18][19]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its future yen exchange rate forecast to 150, with long-term interest rate paths expected to support a stronger yen [1] - Dutch Bank noted that escalating trade disputes have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased demand for the yen and Swiss franc [1] - French Agricultural Credit Bank stated that despite negative UK data, the Bank of England's policy path remains unchanged, limiting short-term declines in the pound [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicated that the ideal scenario for French government bonds in the next 48 hours would involve budget cuts and pension reform rollbacks, warning of potential political turmoil if the Prime Minister fails to address fiscal challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its target exchange rates for the yen over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, citing potential fiscal risks from stimulus policies [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggested that the Bank of England may lower interest rates in the coming months due to rising unemployment and slowing wage growth [3] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Trends - The ICAEW reported that the UK job market is under pressure from high hiring costs and economic weakness, with a decrease in job vacancies signaling negative trends [3] - Jefferies economists believe that weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Bank of England, with the market underestimating the likelihood of further rate cuts this year [4] - InvestingLive highlighted that Germany's core inflation rate rose to 2.8% in September, indicating persistent price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global bond market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats, leading to a recommendation for long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][6][7] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, reflecting increased demand for safe assets amid economic uncertainty [6][8][9] - The report notes that the credit spreads for U.S. high-yield bonds widened by 17 basis points to 2.631%, indicating a growing sensitivity to credit risk in a liquidity-rich environment [8][10][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the offshore RMB sovereign bonds experienced a weekly increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, driven by factors such as enhanced liquidity management and a hot primary market [14][15] - It mentions that the issuance of offshore bonds was concentrated among high-rated financial institutions, with all newly issued bonds rated AAA and primarily with a one-year maturity [17][18] - The report outlines that the issuance structure reflects a mix of short-term financing from financial institutions, long-term allocations from supranational entities, and hybrid instruments from the industrial sector, with U.S. dollar bonds dominating the market [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $4,179 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the global gold market [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Spot gold prices have increased by 56.41% year-to-date, reaching a peak of $4,179.748 per ounce as of October 14 [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures also rose to $4,124.8 per ounce, reflecting a similar year-to-date increase of over 56% [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook exceeding 1,200 RMB per gram, reaching between 1,213 and 1,218 RMB [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - Increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns regarding U.S. fiscal stability and dollar assets, acting as a direct catalyst for gold's rise [5]. - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have further escalated market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [6]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts, has provided significant support for gold prices [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold prices, with expectations of continued upward momentum driven by U.S. fiscal risks and Fed policy [10][16]. - Global central banks' strong appetite for gold remains, with China's official gold reserves increasing for 11 consecutive months [9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, while other analysts predict prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [10][12]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to manage risks carefully as gold prices reach new highs, emphasizing the importance of controlling leverage in investments [14]. - Diversification in investment portfolios is crucial, with recommendations to avoid high-leverage options and consider physical gold or gold ETFs [14][15]. - Monitoring macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and CPI, along with utilizing technical indicators like RSI, can aid in formulating investment strategies [15].

本期《全球财经连线》，带你解析黄金狂飙背后的宏观逻辑，洞察金价的长期走势与投资机遇。 【本节目内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议！】 设计：吴怀宽 （原标题：全球避险风起，黄金还能涨多久｜全球财经连线） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 李依农 黄金价格持续上扬，年内累计涨幅已近60%。 避险情绪升温、美元信用减弱以及全球"去美元化"进程，共同推动金价创下阶段新高。短期来看，美 元、美债、日元等传统避险资产吸引力下降，黄金重回市场"安全港"；长期而言，美国财政赤字与美元 体系转型，进一步强化黄金的战略配置价值。与此同时，中国黄金主题ETF规模突破2000亿元，反映投 资者避险需求高涨。在全球货币体系重估的背景下，金价能否继续上行，成为资本市场关注的焦点。 海外运营内容统筹: 黄子豪 海外运营编辑：庄欢 吴婉婕 龙李华 郑全怡 出品：南方财经全媒体集团 策划：赵海建 监制：施诗 编辑：和佳 记者：李依农 制作：李群 拍摄：胡凯文 新媒体统筹：丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 黄达迅 海外运营监制: 黄燕淑 ...