伊以冲突熄火，避险情绪大幅下降！黄金日内回踩3320支撑，阶段性底部是否出现？立即观看超V推荐 官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran by Trump has significantly reduced safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a decline in gold prices [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold opened at $3368 per ounce and fell to a low of $3333.16, with a daily decline of 0.42% [1][2]. - The market sentiment shifted towards risk assets as geopolitical tensions eased, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data showed weakness, with May retail sales down 0.9% and industrial output down 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer and manufacturing momentum [7]. - Despite the weak data reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal, the focus shifted to geopolitical easing, diminishing the inflation support for gold prices [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold's daily closing price fell below the critical support level of $3350, establishing a bearish trend [7]. - The hourly chart indicates a bearish outlook, with resistance at $3370 and potential targets for further declines at $3340 and $3320-3300 [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest gold will remain in a trading range of $3337 to $3362, influenced by geopolitical developments and technical levels [12]. - A recovery above $3350 or renewed geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in gold prices, while sustained trading below $3337 may trigger further declines [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has reduced market risk appetite and led to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold experienced a volatile trading session, opening high but quickly falling to a low of $3347 before rebounding to $3380, ultimately closing at $3368 [1]. - The primary support for gold prices is currently the situation in the Middle East; any successful ceasefire could lead to further declines in gold prices due to dollar strength and technical adjustments [1][2]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold is struggling within the moving average range, with a downward shift in the technical structure [2]. Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading strategy is to focus on short positions, with specific entry points at $3360-$3362, a stop-loss at $3370, and a target range of $3330-$3310 [3]. - Key resistance levels to watch are between $3365-$3370, while support levels are around $3300 and the lower boundary of the daily range at $3285-$3280 [2]. Upcoming Economic Events - Important economic data and events to monitor include the U.S. current account for Q1, FHFA house price index, S&P/CS 20-city home price index, and speeches from key Federal Reserve officials [4].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-24） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量贡献较大，整 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢 | | | | | 材产量增，铁水止跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。唐山传出钢铁企 | | | | | 业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若铁水破 240 万 | | | | | 吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，短期盘面反弹，中长期待情绪性反弹 | | | | | 结束后可酌情加空单。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉煤成本 | | | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | 下降，多数企业保持在盈利 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：伊朗对美报复性袭击未如预期严重，早间金价大幅回落；三大美股指盘 中"闪跌"后走高全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅下跌；美元指数跌0.39%报 98.38，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1754；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌2.75个基点报4.346%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%报3384.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货781.3，现货777.8，基差-3.5，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18168千克，减少9千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20 ...

避险情绪波动 贵金属涨势暂缓 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 伦敦金、伦敦银日线 沪金、沪银日线 逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 周内，美元指数延续磨底走势，间或小幅反弹。贵金属涨势暂缓，在高位陷入震荡。 ➢ 伦敦金交投于3340-3450美元区间，周跌幅1.9%；伦敦银交投于35.5-37.3美元区间，周跌幅0.9%。受外盘驱动和汇率因素影响， 沪金交投于777-800元区间，周跌幅1.99%；沪银交投与8638-9075区间，周跌幅1.44%。 ➢ 美元指数从97.6附近反弹，周内一度回到99之上，但未能站稳，最终收于98.7，周涨幅0.53%。10年美债收益率高位波动至4.38% 附近。 ◼ 本周市场的交易主线在于美联储的货币政策路径预期和中东地缘冲突。美联储方面，6月会议结果和市场预期一致，并且持续传达了关 税可能在未来引发通胀的担忧，观望仍是当前的主要基调，令贵金属整体有所承压。中东方面，伊朗、 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. military actions against Iran, which have heightened investor concerns about inflation and energy prices [2][6]. - On June 23, gold prices opened near $3400, surged nearly $30 to $3398.02 per ounce, but later retreated to $3365.62, resulting in a modest gain of 0.2% [2]. - Technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for gold, with resistance levels identified at $3375 and $3385-$3395, indicating a strategy of selling on rallies [3][5]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is reacting to the same geopolitical tensions, with prices initially rising sharply before giving back some gains. The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential responses to U.S. actions [6]. - Brent crude oil is projected to enter a trading range above $90 per barrel, contingent on Iran's actions and OPEC+ responses [6]. - Technical indicators for oil show a bullish trend, with prices testing new highs around $78.40 per barrel, and a recommendation to buy on dips while watching resistance at $76.0-$77.0 [7].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the inability of safe-haven sentiment to drive gold prices higher, leading to a prolonged state of market stagnation [1] - There are emerging risks for silver bulls as market dynamics shift, indicating potential challenges ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, which has led to a stronger dollar and increased risk aversion among investors [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices closed with a bullish opening gap but faced selling pressure, retreating to around $3,350 after being rejected at the $3,400 level [4][5]. - The market is reacting to U.S. military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has heightened concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East [6][7]. - The situation has increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven, putting downward pressure on gold prices [7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is testing the critical short-term support level at the 21-day simple moving average of $3,351, with a potential downward trend if it fails to maintain above this level [3][11]. - A failure to hold above the 21-day moving average could lead to a decline towards the 50-day moving average at $3,321, and further down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,297 [11]. - The next upward target for gold is set at $3,400, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing static resistance at $3,440 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, which has escalated the geopolitical risks and driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, opening near the $3400 mark and briefly rising by nearly $30 (0.8%) before retreating to around $3365.62, reflecting the impact of heightened geopolitical risks on market sentiment [1][3] - The current market dynamics are reminiscent of the early stages of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict, where initial optimism was followed by prolonged geopolitical instability, suggesting that the situation may evolve similarly [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3360, $3350, and $3340, with potential declines below these levels leading to further drops to $3330 and $3320 [4] - Resistance levels are noted at $3370, $3380, and $3390, with a significant psychological barrier at $3400, which, if breached, could lead to targets of $3420 and $3430 [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions, is creating additional market variables that could influence gold prices [3]