从盘面表现来看，美元在亚洲交易时段虽出现一定程度的技术性修复，但未能对黄金形成持续压制，显 示当前资金配置逻辑仍以风险对冲为核心。围绕美联储政策独立性、美国政治走向以及地缘局势的不确 定性，继续主导金价的中期定价框架。 近期，美国总统特朗普在外交与贸易领域的多项表态，使市场对全球政治与贸易环境再度紧张的担忧升 温。有关格陵兰岛主权问题的相关言论，曾引发美国与北约盟友之间的分歧，而俄乌冲突长期化的现 实，也令地缘风险溢价持续处于高位。 UNforex 1 月 28 日讯（分析师 Simon）在美联储即将公布 2026 年首场利率决议的背景下，全球市场情 绪再度趋于谨慎，防御性资金配置明显升温。周三欧洲时段前，现货黄金延续此前的强势节奏，连续第 八个交易日改写历史高位，在避险需求与利率预期共同支撑下维持高位运行态势。 不过，围绕美联储内部立场差异、特朗普可能提前公布下一任主席人选，以及白宫对货币政策的持续施 压，使本次会议的政策沟通不确定性明显放大。这种不确定性本身，正被市场持续计入黄金的风险溢价 之中。 随着金价站稳 5200 美元上方，部分机构开始提示运行节奏变化的可能性。盛宝银行指出，当前黄金的 上涨更多是 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices continued their strong upward trend, breaking the $5200 mark and reaching a historical high of $5201.97 per ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 0.4% [1] - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple negative factors, including the U.S. dollar index falling to a four-year low and President Trump's laissez-faire attitude towards a weaker dollar, which has severely undermined market confidence in traditional fiat currencies [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for January plummeted to an 11.5-year low, reflecting a bleak economic outlook, while Trump's announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair nomination and expectations of further interest rate cuts have triggered strong easing expectations [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on South Korean imports, alongside the risk of a government shutdown before the January 30 funding deadline, which has heightened market anxiety [2] - In terms of geopolitical tensions, Trump stated that a fleet is heading towards Iran, with related preparations expected to be completed within two weeks, while Iran has implemented real-time monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has refused to allow its airspace for strikes against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - Despite global stock markets reaching new highs for five consecutive days, the combination of weak economic data, policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical risks has led to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced adjustments to margin requirements for certain silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, with new margin ratios for some silver contracts raised to approximately 11% of nominal value, effective after the close on the 28th, although these changes do not affect gold contracts [2]

黄金方面： 美元指数： 1月28日的最新爆料，美国已向以色列通报了针对伊朗的军事行动准备情况，相关工作现已完成。倘若白宫下令打击伊朗，理论 上航母打击群可以在一两天内发起军事行动。 1月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，航母舰队一直在印度洋附近巡航，并着重强调最终是否发动打击将由他下达命令决定。白宫消 息人士透露，特朗普尚未做出最终决策，预计本周将展开磋商。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，美国在打击伊朗的问题上，仍有很大的变数，美军闪击伊朗的概率持续走高。在此 背景下，黄金避险情绪进一步放大，价格节节攀升。 技术面分析：昨日收阳线。日线级别，金价突破5200美元并在上方运行。1小时级别，价格在60/120日均线上方运行，延续强势 上涨态势，MACD显示多方力量强劲。今日下方关注5200美元的支撑，上方关注5350美元的压力。 原油方面： 近期原油市场对多重供应端的不确定性进行定价。近期的上涨除了对伊朗潜在供应中断的担忧，还有持续的乌克兰战争，尽管 双方开启和谈，但局势仍存在诸多不确定性。 同时，美国特大冬季风暴导致原油生产遭遇重创，上周末原油日产量最高减少200万桶，约占全国总产量的15%，可能会导致短 期 ...

黄金冲破5000美元大关，接下来还会涨吗？ 从去年开始黄金加速上涨，很多错过上车机会的投资者都非常后悔，那么到底应该怎么做？尽管黄金的 大趋势还在涨，但大家一定要保持理性。现在的价格波动非常剧烈，因此个人投资者千万不要"一口气 梭哈"。不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不 只是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多重因素。 最后总结一下，黄金突破5200美元一盎司，既是投资者对世界政治经济局势担忧加剧之下的产物，也是 美元信用走下坡路的结果！而且，世界黄金协会都发话了，2026年黄金市场会进入"动态平衡"，意思就 是不会一直单边上涨，涨跌都会是常态。对于咱们普通人来说，配置一点黄金可以，但千万别All in。 1月28日，国际金价突破每盎司5200美元，国内金店足金甚至冲破了1600元/克！2025年，国际金价全年 涨幅70%左右，创下自1979年石油危机以来年度最大涨幅。今年以来，国际金价继续强势上涨，2026年 才过去不到一个月，就已经上涨15%左右。金价的上涨速度，震撼了全球市场。今天咱们聊聊这轮黄金 暴涨背后的真正逻辑。 （文章来源：21世纪经济 ...

第二个原因：全球央行出手，这才是大招！除了老百姓担心风险，各国央行更担心风险！注意这个数 据：去年全球央行买黄金的数量创了历史新高。为什么？因为美元信用体系正在走下坡路，美元体系的 稳定性已经遭遇到了很大削弱。美国目前的财政赤字已经超过40万亿，这对于美元的信用和币值稳定是 一个潜在的巨大风险。同时，由于美债超发和美元走弱，10年期美债"全球资产定价之锚"的属性已经大 不如前，大量的避险资产开始从美债撤离。因此，在许多投资者对美元失去信心的时候，都去购买黄 金，求个安心！ 其实，还有一个深层原因，可能很多人没想到。以前黄金主要是做首饰，或者当做压箱底的传家宝。但 现在，随着AI、芯片、航天这些高科技发展，黄金成了工业的"维生素"，尖端科技对于黄金的需求量越 来越大。 从去年开始黄金加速上涨，很多错过上车机会的投资者都非常后悔，那么到底应该怎么做？尽管黄金的 大趋势还在涨，但大家一定要保持理性。现在的价格波动非常剧烈，因此个人投资者千万不要"一口气 梭哈"。不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不 只是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多重因素。 黄金冲破5 ...

相关机构表示，在地缘冲突持续与全球去美元化加速后，金价加速走强。展望后市，美国对外政策不确 定性或持续加剧全球宏观的波动，由美国财政信用和美元共同构筑的稳定支柱正受到其传统盟友的质 疑，打开了资本流动和避险逻辑的新篇章。虽然特朗普政府对欧洲极限施压后又撤回，但即便格陵兰争 议进入协议阶段，达成共识也需要时间，且摇摆不定的不确定性状态或持续支撑避险情绪。伴随近期 ETF等资金流入，短期内或可能延续涨幅、加速赶顶。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1087.38 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-01-2 11:39 黄金ETF持仓报告 截至1月27日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1086.53吨，较前一个交易日增加0.85吨。 1月27日，受到特朗普关税政策、地缘政治紧张局势，美国联邦政府关门风险加剧等因素影响，现货黄金延续近日的涨势，日内重回5100美元/盎司，最高狂 飙至5190.06美元/盎司，逼近5200美元大关，续创纪录高位，收于5181.04美元/盎司，涨172.69美元/3.45%。 基本面消息，特朗普政府的关税威胁加剧了市场避险情绪。据央视新闻，特朗普表示，鉴于韩国方面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将 对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。关税政策的不确定性，继续支撑资金涌入黄金以避险。 另外，中东、俄乌等地缘政治紧张局势持续，进一步强化了市场的避险情绪。德意志银行在最新报告中称，地缘政治波动加剧对大宗商品价格的影响尤为明 显，黄金的持续上涨由持续的投资动机驱动，全球各国军费开 ...

Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price bull market has accelerated, with a year-to-date increase of over 17%, surpassing the $5000 key level without significant pullback, instead consolidating in the $5050-$5100 range [1][9] - The driving factors for this trend include escalating geopolitical risks, such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on South Korea, tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainties surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][9] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows are expected to drive demand, with central bank purchases projected to reach 950 metric tons by 2026, reinforcing the price support for gold [1][9] - Despite short-term uncertainties from Federal Reserve policies, expectations for interest rate cuts this year remain unchanged, with a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates enhancing gold's attractiveness [1][9] Federal Reserve Decision Impact - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key event, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Any divergence from this expectation could lead to significant market adjustments, although this would be seen as a temporary pullback within a long-term bullish trend [2][9] Technical Analysis of Gold - Recent price movements show a spike to $5111 before retreating below $5000, followed by a quick rebound, indicating healthy adjustments rather than a trend reversal. The strong consolidation in the $5050-$5100 range has set the stage for further upward movement [3][10] - The weekly chart indicates a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, with a target range of $5300-$5400. The daily RSI is in the overbought zone, but the MACD remains bullish, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][10] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with support around $5080 and targets set at $5160-$5180, and potentially $5200 if the upward trend continues [3][10] Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The recommended short-term trading strategy is to primarily buy on dips, with secondary short positions. Key resistance levels are identified at $5190-$5210, while support is noted at $5140-$5120 [4][11] Oil Market Analysis - As of January 28, WTI crude oil is trading around $62.60 per barrel, having risen nearly 3% due to winter storms impacting U.S. oil production and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, there was a slight pullback to around $60.50 per barrel, indicating a need for technical correction after recent gains [5][12] - The market is currently balancing between fundamental support and expectations of supply recovery, with estimates showing a reduction of up to 2 million barrels per day in U.S. production due to winter storms [5][12] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching $54.80, with a bullish medium-term outlook. However, short-term trends show a potential shift as prices have recently fallen below key moving averages [6][13] - The trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $64.0-$65.0 and support levels at $61.0-$60.0 [6][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in the non-ferrous metal sector driven by rising risk aversion and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to overall strength in the sector [1] - The PCE data is described as moderate, which, along with expected interest rate cuts within the year, supports precious metal prices [1] - The copper and aluminum downstream operating rates have shown a recovery, with an increased acceptance of higher prices [1] Group 2 - Tin prices are being suppressed by high prices, necessitating ongoing attention to demand conditions [1] - Antimony supply remains tight, providing price support [1] - As of January 28, 2026, the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) has surged by 5.78%, with individual stocks such as silver and aluminum companies seeing increases of over 10% [1] Group 3 - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) has risen by 5.95%, with a latest price of 2.56 yuan, closely tracking the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals [1] - The National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, based on a selection of 50 securities with significant scale and liquidity [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices surged to $5,167 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $5,190.20, with a year-to-date increase of 19.56% [1] - Institutional funds are rapidly flowing into the precious metals market as investors seek absolute defense amid macroeconomic turmoil [1] - Silver prices have also risen significantly, reaching $112 per ounce, surpassing the $100 mark [8] Group 2: Stock Market - The Dow Jones index fell below the 49,400 mark, impacted by declines in major stocks like UnitedHealth [7] - The S&P 500 index is approaching the 7,000 mark, indicating a search for breakthroughs despite market volatility, supported by technology giants [7] - The Nasdaq index showed strong performance, benefiting from short covering in the chip sector and AI stocks ahead of earnings reports [7] Group 3: Currency Market - The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated to approximately 95.82, falling below the 96 mark, reflecting a reassessment of "dollar premium" [8] - The EUR/USD pair recovered to 1.2019, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, despite ongoing economic challenges in Europe [8] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded strongly to around 152.56, after a rapid decline from 154 [8]