Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a slight decline, currently quoted at 0.8064, reflecting a 0.06% drop from the previous trading day, continuing a low-level oscillation trend over the past two weeks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/CHF pair has seen a significant pullback since its peak in October, currently situated in a low-level oscillation range, with ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing, providing support for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency, while a rebound in the US stock market has somewhat suppressed its safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Divergence in central bank policies remains a key driver, with high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December putting pressure on the USD index and limiting its upward potential [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a neutral stance, having paused interest rate hikes but remains cautious of excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative interest rates, which supports the Franc [1] - Switzerland's trade surplus expanded to 3.2 billion Swiss Francs in October, contributing to the underlying strength of the Swiss Franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term market expectations are focused on consolidation, with key technical support around the 0.8060 range and the psychological barrier at 0.8000 seen as a potential intervention point for the Swiss National Bank [2] - Resistance is concentrated in the 0.8086-0.8090 range, which needs to be breached to open up upward movement [2] - Future tracking of US non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will be crucial as these factors may catalyze a breakout from the current oscillation range, with investors advised to be cautious of short-term volatility risks following data releases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar index is primarily supported by external factors, including the weakening of non-US currencies and a temporary alleviation of employment concerns [6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Dollar Strength - The collective weakening of non-US currencies has provided passive support for the dollar index, with the Japanese yen and British pound both under pressure due to respective economic conditions and policy decisions [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, reinforcing the resilience of the dollar. Despite a rate cut in October, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a significant reduction in the market's expectations for further cuts in December [2]. - The pause in the release of key economic data due to the government shutdown has alleviated short-term employment concerns, with recent ADP employment data showing marginal improvement, thus supporting the dollar index [3]. Group 2: Additional Supporting Factors - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have temporarily eased, following the Supreme Court's decision to hear a case related to potential dismissals within the Fed, which has calmed market fears [5]. - Increased risk aversion has driven demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following a pullback in US tech stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Group 3: Limitations on Future Dollar Strength - The risks in the employment market have not fundamentally eased, with key employment data yet to be released, and the potential for downward revisions in previously reported job numbers [7]. - There remains room for a return to rate cut expectations, particularly if a dovish candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair, which could negatively impact the dollar index [7]. - The support from non-US currencies is not robust, as the Japanese yen's depreciation may prompt government intervention, which could weaken its support for the dollar index [7]. - Technical resistance is evident near the 100-point mark for the dollar index, requiring additional positive factors for further upward movement [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with upcoming employment data and the appointment of a new Fed chair candidate serving as critical tests for its resilience [8].

【基本面消息】 数据显示，11月25日上海黄金现货价格报价943.15元/克，相较于期货主力价格（946.50元/克）贴水3.35 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月25日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 946.50 | 1.48% | 299689 | 181169 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 首先，美联储年内降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避险情绪升温。美国债务 膨胀、去美元化、地缘冲突再加剧以及中美贸易摩擦、经济格局重塑等弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略 配置价值。 同时，央行购金是人民币国际化的必经之路。从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货 币体系重构以及全球资产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 短期来看，美联储近期发表鹰派言论，市场对12月的降息预期下降至四成，且市场炒作AI泡沫，短期 流动性收紧，金价短线回调。 【机构观点】 广州期货：CME美联储观察模型显示，由外盘联邦基金利率期货价格反推的12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate remains stable with slight fluctuations, influenced by market risk appetite and central bank policies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 24, the USD/CHF opened at 0.8081 and closed at 0.8082, with a trading range of 0.8075 to 0.8090 [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.69% on the same day, increasing market risk appetite and suppressing the safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc [1] - As of November 25, the USD/CHF rate showed a slight increase to 0.8083, reflecting mixed market factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yields for the US and Switzerland are 4.035% and 1.25% respectively, providing a yield differential that supports the USD [1] - Switzerland's trade surplus expanded to 3.2 billion CHF in October, indicating economic resilience that offers implicit support for the Swiss Franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is expected to trade within a range of 0.8079 to 0.8087, with support at 0.8075 and resistance at 0.8090 [2] - Current technical indicators show a neutral stance, with RSI at 47 and MACD near the zero line, indicating balanced buying and selling momentum [2] - A break below 0.8075 could lead to a test of the 0.8070 support level, while a move above 0.8090 may target 0.8095 to 0.8100 [2]

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.22 2025-11-24 避险情绪下内外资一致性流入价值板块 [Table_Authors] ——11 月第 3 周全球外资周观察 本报告导读： ① 北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小幅净流出。②港 股：最近一周稳定型外资流入-267 港元，灵活型外资流入 13 亿港元，港股通流 入 277 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，10 月流入印度。④美欧市 场：9 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 投资要点： 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 北 向资金 ：最近 一周北向 资金可 能 大幅 净流出。 最近一周 （2025/11/17-2025/11/21，下同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流出 183 亿元，前一周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14，下同）估算净流出 50 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型外资估算净流出 77 亿元，前一周 估算净流入 10 亿元。此外，我们汇总最近一周陆股通每日前十大活 跃个股， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing substantial price drops, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment among investors [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to a low of $81,629, with a 24-hour decline of 10.44%, while Ethereum dropped to $2,681.49, down 10.92% [2][3]. - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell below $3 trillion, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 8% [1]. Liquidation Events - Over the past 24 hours, more than $1.965 billion in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated, affecting approximately 403,398 traders [3][4]. - The largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid-BTC-USD, valued at $36.78 million [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the current market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the cryptocurrency market acting as a barometer for risk appetite [1][7]. - The recent downturn is attributed to a combination of heightened risk aversion and a sell-off in technology stocks, which has negatively impacted investor sentiment [5][6]. Historical Context - Bitcoin has seen a cumulative decline of about 23% in November, marking its largest monthly drop since June 2022 [6]. - The recent sell-off began on October 10, leading to a significant liquidation of leveraged positions worth $19 billion, resulting in a total market value loss of approximately $1.5 trillion [6][8]. Future Outlook - Market analysts express caution regarding potential further declines, with concerns that if Bitcoin continues to drop, it may trigger additional margin calls for leveraged positions [7][8]. - The current environment is described as the most pessimistic since the start of the bull market in January 2023, with indications that demand may have significantly waned [8].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing a critical support level at 3800 points, as 351 stocks rose while 107 stocks fell, indicating a poor overall market performance with nearly 5100 stocks declining [4] - The lithium battery industry chain is leading the decline, with lithium mining stocks hitting the limit down, while sectors such as computing hardware, memory storage, semiconductors, consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and fintech also saw notable declines [4] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume in both markets reached 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.08% compared to the previous day, indicating heavy selling pressure with a net outflow of 147.43 billion yuan from institutional investors [5] - Despite some sectors like media attracting net inflows from main funds, industries such as non-ferrous metals and power equipment faced significant capital outflows, reflecting a shift in institutional investment strategies towards undervalued defensive sectors like banks and oil [5] - Retail investors exhibited a cautious outlook, with a notable trend of following the selling behavior of institutions, leading to a significant number of forced liquidations among leveraged positions [5] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is currently at 75.85%, indicating a high level of caution and uncertainty in the market [6] - A survey on investor positions shows that 29.37% of participants are increasing their holdings, while 19.42% are reducing their positions, with 51.21% choosing to remain inactive [10] - In terms of market expectations for the next trading day, 47.64% of investors anticipate a rise, while 52.36% expect a decline, reflecting a divided sentiment among market participants [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - Dogecoin has entered a significant downward trend, dropping to $0.1497 with a daily decline of 5.4%, influenced by a broader market risk aversion triggered by a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report [2][3]. Market Reaction - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm employment increase of 119,000 in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, leading to a sell-off in speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies [3]. - Bitcoin fell over 6.5%, dropping below $87,000, while Ethereum experienced a 7.2% decline, and Coinbase shares dropped by 6.4% [3]. Dogecoin's Performance - Dogecoin has been in a downward spiral since reaching a high of $0.18311 on November 10, consistently failing to break above resistance levels around $0.166, indicating a weakening price momentum [6][9]. - Recent attempts to rebound have been met with selling pressure, with the cryptocurrency struggling to maintain its position above $0.153 [8][10]. Key Resistance Levels - The critical resistance zone for Dogecoin is identified between $0.163 and $0.167, where previous attempts to break through have resulted in significant sell-offs [9]. - Analysts suggest that a breakthrough above this resistance zone is necessary for a genuine rebound; otherwise, Dogecoin may continue to test lower levels [9].

全球资本市场周一呈现普涨格局，半导体巨头英伟达19日发布的超预期财报成为核心驱动力。受此利好 提振，美股三大指数全线收高，并带动亚太及欧洲主要股指同步走强。风险资产的强势表现令市场避险 情绪显著降温，具有对冲属性的贵金属板块遭遇抛售压力，现货黄金日内震荡下行，创近三周最大单日 跌幅。 美国劳工部20日发布的9月就业报告显示，美国9月份非农就业人数增加11.9万人，远高于此前预期的5 万人增幅。整体失业率从8月份的4.3%小幅上升至4.4%。劳工部此前表示，由于数据不足，将取消发布 10月份就业报告，部分10月份就业数据将被纳入美联储12月10日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决 议后发布的报告中。此举促使交易员下调了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预期。 回顾周四（11月20日）COMEX黄金期货日K收跌，在20日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场中，交投最 为活跃的2025年12月黄金期价出现下跌，跌幅为0.15%，具体下跌6.1美元后，最终收于每盎司4076.7美 元。这一价格变动主要受到美国9月就业报告的影响。该报告显示就业情况强于预期，进而引发了市场 对于美国货币政策鹰派的预期。在这种预期下，黄金价格走势受 ...