三大利好因素推动铜价触及三个月高点！为何知名机构却预计年底价格将下跌？这波上涨是否在"诱 多"？点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry underperformed the market in the first half of the year due to valuation increases and policy changes [1] - Ongoing market stabilization measures are expected to boost various business segments, including brokerage, margin financing, and equity derivatives [1] - The introduction of new public fund regulations marks a new era for high-quality development in public funds [1] - The deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms is leading to a recovery in investment banking business [1] - The reliance on investment performance, particularly in leverage and proprietary equity investments by brokerages, remains a key differentiator [1] - The "1+N" regulatory framework and mechanisms to encourage long-term capital inflow are enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent copper prices have shown an upward trend, but there is market divergence regarding future price movements [2] - The upstream refined copper production remains tight due to limited CAPEX and significant reductions in TC/RC fees [2] - Support for copper prices is provided by China's "steady growth" policies and the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with current market prices deemed reasonable [2] - Further upward movement in copper prices may require additional macroeconomic policy support domestically and stabilization in overseas economies [2] - Inflation expectations, interest rate cut anticipations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may further support the current strong oscillation in copper prices [2] - Citic Securities maintains a forecast for copper prices to rise to $10,000–$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, while cautioning against potential disruptions from July's "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Group 3: Smart Glasses Supply Chain - The release of Xiaomi's AI glasses, which serve as a portable AI interface with multiple functionalities, highlights the importance of the smart glasses supply chain [3] - The smart glasses are positioned as a significant future product in the AI sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Demand is gradually weakening, but copper prices have risen due to short-covering [2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 27, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,920 CNY/ton, up 2.47% from June 20; LME copper closed at 9,879 USD/ton, up 2.26% [2] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on copper, leading to a global inventory shift towards the U.S. [2] Group 2: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11% and LME copper inventory decreased by 4.6% [3] - As of June 27, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 624,000 tons, down 12.4% from the previous week [3] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 398,000 tons, down 1.8% [3] Group 3: Supply and Production - From January to April 2025, global copper concentrate production increased by 2% year-on-year [4] - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [4] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,965 CNY/ton, up 1,045 CNY/ton from June 20 [4] Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year [5] - As of June 27, 2025, the TC spot price was -43.56 USD/ton, showing a slight increase but remaining at a low level since September 2007 [5] Group 5: Demand Indicators - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 70.18% as of June 26, 2025 [6] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year from July to September 2025 [6] - The operating rate for brass rods was 50.6% in May 2025, down 4.4 percentage points month-on-month [6] Group 6: Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 37% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots as of June 27, 2025 [7][8] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 24% week-on-week, totaling 29,000 lots as of June 24, 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising costs of new copper mines globally due to increasing inflation, which is impacting copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Global inflation is intensifying, leading to higher costs for establishing new copper mines [1] - The article raises questions about how copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations will evolve in response to these rising costs [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory support and a warming macro - environment. The market should pay attention to the Shanghai copper's test of the previous high pressure level [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper slightly rose to 78,810, with total positions increasing by 11,458 lots. The 07 - 08 spread on the board narrowed to 130, and the spot premium dropped 10 to 30. Downstream demand for high - priced copper was limited during the off - season [11] - LME market spreads also narrowed, with the 0 - 3 spread narrowing to $150/ton. The shortage of spot goods slightly eased, but LME inventory continued to decline by 1,200 to 93,475 tons. The high BACK structure caused by low LME inventory is difficult to ease in the short term [11] - The COMEX - LME spread widened to $1,214/ton. The high C - L premium due to the delayed US tariff implementation led to the continuous transfer of global inventory to COMEX. SHFE and LME will face continuous de - stocking pressure [11] - The macro - environment has improved. The sharp rise in A - shares has driven the market's bullish sentiment to spread to the commodity market, supporting the prices of Shanghai and London copper [11] 3.2. Industry News - A new preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona shows an initial cost of $1.24 billion and a post - tax net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion. The underground mine can produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 15 years of its 23 - year lifespan. At a base price of $4.25 per pound, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 20%. At the current Comex high - grade copper price of $4.83 per pound, the NPV rises to $1.9 billion and the IRR rises to 24% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper produced by Houma Beitong Copper Industry Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 200,000 tons. It also cancelled the registration qualification of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper of Shanxi Beifang Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Houma Smelter [12] - The case of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan Brothers Mining Company's new joint venture entered the publicity period (June 16 - 25, 2025). The joint venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, development, production, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [13] - An employee of First Quantum's Trident died in a dump truck accident at Sentinel. The company will cooperate fully with the investigation, and operations in the accident area have been temporarily suspended [13]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78560，基差-250，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月25日铜库存减1200至93475吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地 ...

Group 1: Copper Industry - In May, domestic air conditioner sales increased by 2.3%, while production decreased by 1.8%. The copper industry is facing supply disruptions, with both domestic production and imports of scrap copper declining in May. Demand for air conditioning is weaker than expected, leading to potential risks in copper demand. Short-term copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with a gradual increase anticipated following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the US [4]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran continues to dominate the crude oil market. On June 22, the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, marking its formal involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, with a continued positive outlook for major oil companies and related services [5]. Group 3: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The "618" shopping festival results indicate a significant growth in the pet economy, with over 400 pet brands reporting sales increases of over 100% year-on-year. The number of pet transaction users grew by 32%, and new pet owners increased by 39% [6]. Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a supply contraction and a rebound in demand, suggesting that coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom. Port coal prices are stable, and there has been an increase in iron and steel production. Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have decreased and are now lower than the same period last year [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The wind power sector is advised to focus on wind turbine manufacturers, as second-quarter performance may be under pressure. The solid-state battery sector is seeing increased capital expenditure due to advancements in production lines and policy support. The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming supply and demand policies, with a focus on integrated companies with lower production costs [9]. Group 6: Retail Industry - The recent promotional period concluded with stable results, as e-commerce platforms reported a cumulative sales figure of 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year increase. Instant retail sales reached 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year. This year, platforms are focusing more on ecosystem building and consumer experience, with instant retail gaining traction [10]. Group 7: Pharmaceutical Industry - The review process for innovative drugs is accelerating, with the National Medical Products Administration seeking opinions on optimizing clinical trial approvals. This is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector. Long-term, the policy aims to support the transition of Chinese innovative drugs from a combination of imitation and innovation to global original research [11].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 需求：本周线缆开工率环比-3pct，5月国内家用空调产量低于预期 （1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025年6月19日当周开工率为73.26%，环比上周-3.05pct。（2）空 调：约占国内铜需求13%，据产业在线6月18日更新，2025年5月中国家用空调产量为2081.2万台，同 比-1.8%（4月预计的5月排产同比增速+9.9%）；销量2203.4万台，同比+2.3%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求 4.2%，黄铜棒2025年5月开工率50.6%，环比-4.4pct、同比+0.05pct。 截至2025年6月20日，SHFE铜收盘价77990 元/吨，环比6月13日-0.03% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market remains tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the tense situation in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are at a low level, and LME copper inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, the off - season characteristics are evident, with a decline in power grid orders and weak performance in new energy, photovoltaics, and home decoration. The demand for copper tubes from the air - conditioning industry has weakened, but lower prices can still attract downstream restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, the spot processing fee TC is continuously weakening, and the supply of recycled copper is in short supply. The probability of future production cuts or shutdowns of overseas smelters is increasing. [6] - Due to the fluctuations in US tariff policies and the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are becoming more cautious about global trade and economic growth. The macro and micro logics lack resonance, and it is expected that the price will not show a trend. However, the low domestic and overseas inventories indicate that there is still upward elasticity when the copper price is low. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage, but the large B - structure of LME will lead to losses for short - position roll - over. At the same time, the low - level depletion of domestic inventories allows the Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage to continue to be held. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The copper price volatility in the four markets continues to be weak. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 17%, and the LME copper price volatility is around 5%. [10] - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper has widened, and the LME copper spot premium has increased. The spread between Shanghai copper 07 - 08 has risen from 210 yuan/ton on June 13th to 240 yuan/ton on June 20th. The LME 0 - 3 spread has expanded from a premium of 73.41 US dollars/ton to 274.99 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed. [12][14] - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, COMEX, LME copper, and international copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 20,700 lots to 531,200 lots. [15] - **Fund and Industrial Position**: The net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased. The net short position of LME commercial has decreased from 67,300 lots on June 6th to 67,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased from 24,100 lots on June 3rd to 26,300 lots on June 10th. [21] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, rising from a premium of 35 yuan/ton on June 13th to 120 yuan/ton on June 20th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded to 40 US dollars/ton. The US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has risen to 190 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable at 107.5 US dollars/ton. [25][27] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has declined from 491,300 tons on June 12th to 487,600 tons on June 19th. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, slightly rising from 144,800 tons on June 12th to 145,900 tons on June 19th. The bonded - area inventory has increased from 59,700 tons on June 12th to 64,300 tons on June 19th. The COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. [34] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 07 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating relatively tight overseas spot markets. [35] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, with China importing 2.3952 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The port inventory has decreased from 632,000 tons on June 13th to 514,000 tons on June 20th. The processing fee has continued to be weak, with the spot TC at - 44.78 US dollars/ton in the week of June 20th, and the smelter loss is about 3,712 yuan/ton. [38][41] - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year. In May, the import of recycled copper was 185,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 91,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.23%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [42][48] - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased, with 74,000 tons imported in April, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, the processing fee was at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 800 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [53] - **Refined Copper**: The production of domestic refined copper has increased more than expected. In May, the production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. The import volume has increased, with 253,100 tons imported in May, a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. Attention should be paid to the profitability of copper exports. [56] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of June 19th, the operating rate of wire and cable declined. [59] - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has remained stable. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened. [62][65] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level. [66] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well, with the cumulative consumption from January to May at 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and the apparent consumption at 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 140.8 billion yuan from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%. [74] - **Air - Conditioning and New Energy Vehicles**: In May, the domestic air - conditioning production was 20.812 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%, and the production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.11%. [76]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78665，基差355，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月19日铜库存减4025至103325吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5461吨至101943吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运 行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴 ...