Let's bring in Kevin Green now who joins me to get us across some more data and we just have hitting the tape of the 10hour. The ISM services numbers talk us through what you're seeing there as far as the PMIs today. Kevin.>> Yeah, actually if you're looking at ISM services PMIs are actually better than the street's expectations in two areas here. If you're looking at the overall number that came in at 52.6%, Street was looking for 52 even and that's actually better than what we saw last uh month at 52.4% h ...

One of the biggest scandals in finance is that trillions of dollars are being wagered daily on inaccurate economic data.About 40% of the CPI is estimated instead of measured.The Michigan consumer sentiment survey is politically corrupted by sample bias.The jobs data gets significant downward revisions months later.Everywhere you look, government data is painting the wrong picture about the economy.This is a big reason why the traditionalists have been wrong about their market predictions.It is hard to make ...

每经AI快讯，12月3日，瑞士11月CPI环比下降0.2%，预期下降0.2%，前值为下降0.3%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US economy still shows resilience, with the GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3, driven by personal consumption and net exports. Consumption momentum is slowing, and attention should be paid to the released CPI and non - farm payroll data. Driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, overseas risk assets generally recovered last week [2]. - Domestically, the November PMI and October industrial enterprise profits further confirm the weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q4. The manufacturing PMI is 49.2, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The construction and service industries are also in the contraction range. October industrial enterprise profits declined, with manufacturing and public utilities being the main drags. A - shares had a weak rebound with shrinking volume last week, and short - term shocks are expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - **US Retail in September**: US retail sales were weaker than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%), and core retail sales increased 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Durable goods consumption was divided, and non - durable goods still showed some resilience but with obvious structural differences [4][5]. 2. Domestic Macro - **October Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues were 113.37 trillion yuan, with a 1.8% year - on - year increase. Total profits were 5950.29 billion yuan, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, significantly lower than September's 3.2%. The single - month profit growth rate in October dropped to - 5.5%. Upstream mining profits decreased less, while mid - and downstream profits cooled significantly. Enterprises were accumulating inventory, and profit margins were the main drag on profits [9][10]. - **November Manufacturing PMI**: The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2, still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved synchronously, with external demand improving significantly. Prices rose, and finished - product inventory decreased. The service industry's prosperity declined, and the construction industry was still struggling [12][13]. 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities showed different trends last week. For example, the Wande All - A Index rose 2.90%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% [23]. - **Bonds**: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds changed last week. For example, the 1 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.42 basis points, and the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 basis points [26]. - **Commodities**: Commodity prices generally rose last week. For example, the South China Commodity Index rose 1.99%, COMEX gold rose 4.34%, and COMEX silver rose 14.37% [27]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index declined, and exchange rates of major currencies against the RMB changed. For example, the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.43% [30]. 4. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Domestic**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, and commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities [32]. - **Overseas**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as Redbook commercial retail sales and unemployment insurance claims in the US [37]. 5. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI, euro - zone November CPI, and US November ISM manufacturing PMI [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the M300 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12445 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6126 lots, an increase of 1933 lots; the main contract position is 108469 lots, a decrease of 8957 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 62998 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 13200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 (Wuxi) is 8850 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The SS main contract basis is 375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22900 metal tons, an increase of 1200 metal tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9939.65 tons, a decrease of 18631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905100 tons, a decrease of 180200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 119750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%, national) is 885 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - China's ferrochrome output is 757800 tons, a decrease of 26900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597600 tons, an increase of 12300 tons [2] - The stainless - steel export volume is 458500 tons, a decrease of 29500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 490613900 square meters, an increase of 36623900 square meters [2] - The output of excavators is 30900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21900 units, a decrease of 4300 units; the output of small tractors is 9000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months. Affected by the high base, the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, a nine - month high [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, the nickel ore grade is decreasing, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains at a high level, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and although the traditional demand peak season is over, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is under pressure, and the short sentiment is weakening [2]

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-01 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 将有下降。需求端，部分下游及终端企业担忧锡价持续拉升，进行了少量补库及刚需采买，而整体则对当 前价位仍持观望态度。国内库存录得下降，现货升水回升至500元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水上涨 免责声明 。技术面，成交放量收上影线，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计沪锡震荡上移，关注30.5-31位置阻力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 770 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,891 lots, a decrease of 4,444 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 33,268 lots, a decrease of 6,343 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 10,254 tons, a decrease of 1,146 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,722 tons, a decrease of 587 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 119,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 520 yuan/ton [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.29 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,487.33 tons, a decrease of 12.43 tons [2] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597,600 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly due to the high base effect [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level, indicating satisfaction with the recent situation [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, reaching a nine - month high [2] 3.7 Technical and Market Conditions - In terms of technology, positions are stable, prices are adjusting, and differences between bulls and bears are increasing [2] - Domestically, nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases as needed, and spot premiums rise; overseas, LME inventory also shows an increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

摘要 宏观周周谈：2026 年通胀展望 20251130 预计 2026 年全球经济增速将小幅提升至 3%，主要受益于全球库存周 期回补及发达经济体财政宽松共振，这将对原油需求形成支撑。 OPEC+剩余产能有限，沙特和阿联酋增产能力边际收紧，美国页岩油成 本上升限制供给，预计 2026 年 WTI 油价中枢为 65-70 美元/桶，地缘 政治风险将影响具体弹性。 预计 2026 年第三季度猪肉价格迎来拐点，能繁母猪存栏量是核心驱动 因素。四季度仍供强需弱，但政策调控和去化有望推动明年二季度末存 栏量降至 3,900 万头。 模型显示，油价上涨将提升 PPI，对 CPI 形成正向贡献，最大单月拉动 CPI 约 0.2 个百分点。生猪供应减少预计将显著影响食品类 CPI，明年通 胀压力或增加但总体可控。 2025 年 9 月能繁母猪存栏同比下降 0.7%，预计 2026 年 7 月猪价将上 行 2.5%。若按既定速度去化，2026 年一季度末同比去化或达最大值， 对应四季度末猪价最高涨幅可能达到 12.4%。 Q&A 2026 年全球原油价格的中枢预测是什么？有哪些主要因素影响这一预测？ 2026 年全球原油价格 ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日消息，德国11月CPI同比增长2.3%，预期增长2.4%；11月CPI环比下降0.2%，预 期下降0.3%。 ...