文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 事 项 8月份，CPI同比下降0.4%，预期降0.2%，前值0%；核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，前值上涨0.8%。PPI同比下降 2.9%，预期下降2.9%，前值下降3.6%。 报 告 摘 要 8月物价数据点评：促消费和反内卷影响下，部分价格呈现积极变化 1、整体读数来看，PPI同比降幅明显收窄 ，我们在《 PPI同比或开启第二轮回升周期 》中提出，PPI同比 大概率将从8月份开启第二轮回升周期，目前已初步印证。 CPI同比回落幅度较大，低于市场预期 ，主要 受：1）去年高温多雨天气带来的食品价格高基数；2）供给偏多影响下，本月食品价格涨幅弱于季节性； 3）油价下跌。CPI基本符合我们预期《 外需依然偏强——8月经济数据前瞻 》。 值得注意的是，在促消费 带来的耐用品价格改善影响下，我们估算的核心商品同比从年初以来的0%回升至1.5%，创2021年以来的 新高 （图4）。 光伏行业价格对PPI的影响有多大？ 自7月初以来，在反内卷政策的影响下，光伏行业价格明显反弹，光伏行业综 ...

Meanwhile, getting a news alert out of Washington today. Let's get to Megan Cassella. Hey, Megan.Carl, good morning. This is the Labor Department's Office of Inspector General is now informing the BLS that is initiating a review of the challenges that the BLS faces in collecting some of its most closely watched data. So, in a letter written uh to the acting commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inspector general says they're focusing on two things here.on the challenges and related mitigating ...

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-over-month decrease of 0.1%, a significant drop from the previous month's increase of 0.9%, which was revised to 0.7% [1][2] - Year-over-year PPI inflation decreased to 2.6% from 3.3% last month, indicating a notable decline in inflation at the producer level [2] - Core PPI also fell by 0.1%, dropping from 3.7% to 2.8% year-over-year [2] Energy and Trade Services Impact - Excluding food and energy, trade services increased by 0.3%, but this was lower than the previous month's increase of 6% [3] - The energy component of the PPI decreased, which is a positive sign for overall inflation as energy prices have been a significant contributor to CPI [6] Market Reaction and Future Expectations - Futures markets reacted positively to the PPI data, although the market's response to PPI is typically less intense than to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [4][5] - The upcoming CPI report is anticipated to be crucial, with expectations of a 0.3% increase and a year-over-year rate of 2.9% [7][8] - There is speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Barclays predicting three cuts by 2026, raising concerns about whether market expectations may exceed the Fed's actions [8][9]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: How to View Price Signals in the Bond Market Correction? - Commentary on August Price Data [1] - Report Type: Commentary Report [6] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Viewpoints Data Observation: Characteristics of August Inflation Data - CPI: In August, the CPI year-on-year was -0.4%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month, falling back into the negative range and lower than the market expectation (-0.2%). The CPI month-on-month was 0%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. The food item dragged down the CPI significantly, while the core CPI continued to rise, significantly pulled by the gold price [2]. - PPI: The PPI year-on-year was -2.9%, with the decline narrowing compared to July but still lower than the market expectation (-2.88%). The PPI month-on-month was 0%, ending the five - month negative trend. The upstream price regulation continued to show its influence, but the price transmission from the production end to the demand end was still not smooth [2][3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of August Price Data - From the perspective of residents' income, the year - on - year decline of the rent level has remained at -0.1% for six consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - In terms of core indicators, the pork price in August dropped year - on - year to -16.1% and month - on - month to -0.5%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an oversupply of pork, and the decline in pork price also reflected the contraction of demand, which may continue to drag down the CPI [5][7]. - High - frequency data showed that the prices of various commodities declined, and the upward force on the PPI might weaken [7]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen from August Inflation Data - CPI: This month, the CPI declined more than expected, and the support for the core CPI was still weak. The decline in pork price and international oil price may continue to drag down the CPI. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of policies on the demand side [8]. - PPI: The PPI trend was still dominated by supply - side price regulation, but the upward momentum weakened. Whether the PPI can maintain the current level in the next month depends on the demand - side's ability to absorb [9]. - Bond Market: The CPI and PPI year - on - year were still in the negative range, and the bond market's continuous correction did not match the fundamentals. In the future, the market may return to the fundamentals, and there are still funds waiting to enter the bond market [9][10][12]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0% and an expectation of -0.2%[7] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, improving from -3.6% previously, aligning with market expectations[7] - The overall PPI month-on-month remained at 0%, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered price transmission from upstream[2] Group 2: Price Transmission and Sector Analysis - Upstream price increases contributed positively to PPI month-on-month, with a calculated impact of 0.3% from commodity prices[1] - Downstream sectors, particularly in food and automotive industries, saw PPI declines of 0.3% each, reflecting significant price drops[2] - The core CPI for core goods rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from trade-in programs[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases, keeping inflation weak throughout the year[4] - By year-end, PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1% year-on-year, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4[4] - Risks include potential tightening in food and energy supplies, which could further impact CPI dynamics[5]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - August CPI year-on-year growth is -0.4%, with a month-on-month change of 0.0%[10] - August PPI year-on-year growth is -2.9%, with a month-on-month increase to 0.0%[10] - Core CPI year-on-year improved significantly to 0.9% compared to the same period in 2024[15] Group 2: Impact of Policies - The effects of the anti-involution policy are beginning to show in the August PPI data, with mining industrial prices recovering for three consecutive months[22] - Prices in the black chain have stabilized, with coal mining and washing industry increasing by 2.8% month-on-month[22] - The rise in bulk commodity prices has positively impacted downstream manufacturing industries, with factory prices showing a month-on-month recovery of -0.05%[22] Group 3: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices, particularly pork and eggs, are the main drag on CPI, contributing -0.81% to the index[13] - Pork prices contributed -0.29% to CPI, while other food items contributed -0.51%[13] - The demand for pork is expected to recover in September, potentially lifting prices from their current low[15] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, and consumer recovery momentum may not meet expectations[30] - The sustainability of price increases in bulk commodities and their impact on downstream industries will be closely monitored[28]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a continuous decline in food prices [1][10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) ended an eight-month downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July [4][5] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3][11] - Industrial prices showed positive changes, with certain sectors like coal processing and black metal smelting experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, contributing to the overall stabilization of PPI [7][8] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in the supply-demand relationship, positively affecting industrial product prices and reducing disorderly competition in various sectors [3][9] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support a gradual recovery in prices, with forecasts indicating a potential narrowing of PPI year-on-year declines in the coming months [8][12]

Core Viewpoints - The upstream price increase has a positive contribution to PPI month-on-month, but the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors continues to drag down PPI significantly [2][10][70] - In August, PPI showed marginal improvement, primarily driven by a notable rebound in commodity prices, with PPI month-on-month remaining at 0% [2][10][70] - The overall PPI month-on-month is 0%, mainly due to low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors, which prevents the full transmission of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, coal and steel prices continued to rise, with coal mining (2.8%), black mining (2.1%), and black rolling (1.9%) showing month-on-month increases [2][10][70] - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil prices, with copper prices also contributing negatively to PPI [2][10][70] - The mid and downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in food and automotive sectors both at -0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - In August, CPI year-on-year dropped to -0.4%, influenced by a high base and weak food prices, with food CPI down 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI continues to expand, with core goods CPI rising 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Core service CPI increased slightly, supported by summer travel and medical service reforms, while rental CPI remains weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the oversupply in the mid and downstream sectors may constrain the transmission of upstream price increases, leading to weak inflation throughout the year [4][41][72] - It is expected that by the end of the year, PPI year-on-year may recover to a maximum of -2.1% [4][41][72] - CPI is anticipated to remain negative in the third quarter, with a potential turnaround in the fourth quarter due to ongoing policies supporting service consumption and demand recovery [4][41][72]

Core CPI and Consumer Demand - In August, China's CPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in its year-on-year increase [1] - The continuous improvement in core CPI indicates a moderate recovery in consumer demand, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1][5] - Prices of durable goods such as household appliances, vehicles, and communication tools showed a month-on-month increase above historical averages, reflecting the positive impact of consumption policies [1] Industrial Product Prices - In August, the year-on-year price of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 1.5%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - Jewelry prices, including gold and platinum, rose significantly, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI increase [2] - Service prices also saw a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with transportation and tourism costs rising by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively [2] Food Prices and CPI Impact - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month but decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork, eggs, and fresh fruit prices [3] - The year-on-year decline in food prices had a greater negative impact on CPI than the overall CPI decline, with a downwards influence of approximately 0.51 percentage points [3] - The weakening of food prices is attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year and lower seasonal price increases this month [2][3] PPI Trends - The PPI ended an eight-month decline, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [3][4] - Improvements in PPI are linked to effective supply-demand adjustments and policy impacts, particularly in key industries such as coal, metals, and new energy vehicles [4] - Emerging industries and high-tech sectors are experiencing rapid growth, contributing positively to PPI data [5] Future Outlook - The overall price trend in August indicates a recovery, with expectations for a moderate rebound in prices as domestic demand policies take effect [5][6] - The CPI structure may reflect a decline in food and energy prices while core CPI continues to rise, suggesting a potential recovery phase for PPI [5][6]