黄金昨天猛涨50美金，延续上周的涨势，不改加速冲刺走势。今天续涨，再破高，涨破3500，涨幅达到 了70美金，回落看调整。 今天的走势 昨天快涨，破高回落调整后。 今天延续涨势，多头不停。 直接闯关3500，一举涨到了3508。 上方再次反弹，上方再战3508，破高不猜顶。 当然了，加速阶段，随时迎来大幅回调。 下方再次回调，跌破了3470的位置，继续看向3436的支撑。 黄金4个月连涨，刷新历史新高后。到8月收官，经历了4个月横盘，围绕3300关口高位调整后，再次上 破，多头强势归来。本月再创历史新高后，强势不改，上不猜顶。同时，多头加速阶段，随时谨防大幅 回调，可看3400的位置。 操作方面，黄金强势不改，多头接连破高，继续看反弹的机会，关注3470和3436做多的机会。此外，黄 金冲高回落，短期内看承压调整，关注3508做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美通胀不改，但劳动力市场却意外下滑，昨天再次大幅下修，就业市场着实出现了问题。多个 数据表现，把压力给到了美联储，降息的预期不断升温，9月或正式开启降息大门，黄金迎来大幅反 弹。 冲高回落，看调整。 下方先看3470的位置，看此位置反弹的机会。 同时 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：指数挖掘机） 南向资金持续流入 南向资金持续买入港股资产，今年以来累计净买入金额已突破9900亿港元，强劲的资金流入态势充分彰 显出投资者对港股市场的坚定信心，其中医药、科技、互联网、消费等市场热门板块持续成为资金布局 的重点方向，获得资金集中关注。 机构看好港股 对于港股及A股市场走势，方正证券认为，当前基本面彰显较强韧性，同时政策利好不断释放，海内外 投资者再度纷纷看好中国资产，A股、港股市场信心显著回升，有望推动行情继续向好。 聚焦科技、医药、互联网等板块 $恒生医药ETF(159892)：聚焦港股创新药+CXO 南下资金加速流入港股市场，叠加美联储降息预期，流动性环境整体较为友好，后续有望进一步流入推 动港股行情，对流动性更敏感的科技、医药，互联网等有望受益。 $恒生科技指数ETF(513180)：科技龙头+造车新势力+芯片 $恒生互联网ETF(513330)：聚焦港股互联网龙头 ...

海通国际指出，美联储重启降息之下，外资存在超预期回流可能。往后看，近期美联储政策已明显转 向，鲍威尔在年会上超预期转鸽，美元或延续震荡偏弱格局，叠加后续中美贸易关系趋稳，有望为外资 边际改善甚至超预期回流提供良好的宏观环境。 9月1日，贵金属价格再度走强。国际金价连续第五个交易日上涨，COMEX黄金期货最高触及3553.8美 元/盎司，再创历史新高；现货黄金盘中突破3480美元/盎司，已逼近4月份创下的历史新高。今年以 来，现货黄金涨幅已超32%。国内黄金股，如西部黄金、湖南黄金、中金黄金等当日股价均上涨。部分 黄金饰品品牌价格也上涨，周大福和六福珠宝黄金实物价格为1027元/克，上涨1.18%。 贵金属市场这波涨势背后，美联储降息预期无疑是重要推手，引发了市场的广泛关注和投资热情。多家 国际金融机构纷纷上调金价目标价，显示出对黄金后市的强烈看好。而本周即将公布的一系列美国经济 数据，将成为检验市场判断、影响后续走势的关键。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品 ...

Group 1 - The focus in the foreign exchange market remains on the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the dollar index closing at approximately 97.85 after a decline of about 2.2% in August [1] - Market consensus indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at around 87%, primarily due to lackluster PCE data [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump-related policies and discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve are putting short-term pressure on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro and pound have shown relative strength against the dollar, while the yen has potential for mid-term appreciation due to ongoing international risk aversion, although unclear policy signals from the Bank of Japan limit its strength [1] - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to poor economic data, with a 1.6% annual decline in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports, leading to expectations of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1] - In contrast, the Australian dollar is performing more optimistically, supported by a rebound in risk appetite and strong domestic data, particularly in credit and CPI, which has reduced rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - The futures market shows a predominance of net short positions in the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are net long [3] - Notably, there was a directional shift in Australian dollar positions last week, with significant changes exceeding 20% in the holdings of the pound, yen, and New Zealand dollar [3] - A US multinational company has implemented a risk management strategy by purchasing two-month European-style call options on the Canadian dollar to hedge against potential appreciation, effectively stabilizing procurement costs and controlling exchange rate risk [3]

本周（9 月 1 日至 7 日）全球市场迎来三大关键事件美国 8 月非农就业报告、中国抗战胜利日阅兵及上 海合作组织天津峰会。这些事件可能显著影响金融市场走势，尤其是黄金、外汇及股指的短期波动格 局。UNFX 为您解析核心动态： 一、美国非农数据：美联储降息预期的终极考验 时间：9 月 5 日（周五） 市场影响：本次非农数据被视为美联储 9 月议息会议前最关键的参考指标，其数据表现将直接左右市场 对美联储后续货币政策的预期。 预期值：经济学家预测 8 月非农就业人数仅增加 7.5 万，若该预期成真，这将是 2020 年以来最疲弱的 非农就业数据；同时，失业率可能从 4.2% 小幅上升。 潜在情景： 若数据弱于预期：可能进一步强化市场对美联储 9 月降息的预期（目前掉期市场定价降息概率已达 90%）。从资产影响来看，这一情景将利好黄金、美债等避险与低风险资产，但可能对美元汇率及股票 等风险资产形成压制。 若数据显著强于预期：则可能动摇当前市场普遍认可的降息逻辑，进而推动美元指数反弹，同时对近期 持续上涨的美股走势构成挑战。 后续关联事件：除本次非农数据外，后续还有多个关键事件值得关注，包括 9 月 9 日非农历 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has reached a historical high, surpassing $3500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 2, spot gold prices briefly exceeded $3500 per ounce, marking a historical peak [1]. - The New York gold and silver futures prices hit new highs, with December gold futures closing at $3546 per ounce, up 0.85%, and September silver futures at $41.05 per ounce, up 2.11% [3]. - London spot gold prices approached $3490 per ounce during trading, nearing historical highs [3]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Increase - Domestic gold jewelry prices have seen significant increases, with brands like Chow Sang Sang pricing at 1041 RMB per gram, up 16 RMB from the previous day, and Lao Miao Gold at 1034 RMB per gram, up 11 RMB [4]. - The price of various gold and platinum jewelry items has been listed, with gold jewelry at 1041 RMB per gram and platinum jewelry at 470 RMB per gram [5][6].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250902：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/2 指标 单位 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | 今值 | | | | | | 元/吨 16,725.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,855.00 | | | | | -0.15% | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -130.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -20.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -42.47 | | | | | - -1.40 | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -69.50 | | | | | -0.20 | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/ ...

Fundamental Analysis - The price of spot gold reached a new historical high of $3508.74 per ounce, driven by increasing global economic uncertainty and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1][3] - On September 1, spot gold surged to over a four-month high, peaking at $3489.78 per ounce, closing at $3476.08 per ounce, reflecting investor sentiment towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut this month, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 100 basis points by fall 2026, influenced by dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [1][3] Dollar Influence - The continuous decline of the US dollar has been a key catalyst for the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52 and closing at 97.66, down approximately 0.17% [3] - The dollar has accumulated a decline of 2.2% as a result of a court ruling deeming many of Trump's tariff measures illegal, which has weakened the dollar's strong position [3] Global Political Risks - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly with rising support for populist and far-right parties in the UK, France, and Germany, has further supported gold and silver prices [3][4] - The potential for political instability due to the inability to address immigration and cost of living issues has raised market concerns, contributing to a flight to safe-haven assets like gold [4] Market Sentiment - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, trade policy changes, and global political risks, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4] - Traders are expected to focus on upcoming US employment data this week, which may influence market sentiment [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are approaching previous historical highs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the $3500 level is breached [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest attempting long positions in the range of $3485-$3490, with targets set around $3520-$3535 [7]

9月2日，A股指数走弱，截至10:48，共4600只个股下跌。 沪深两市成交额连续第70个交易日突破1万亿，较昨日此时有所缩量。 8月以来，两融余额连续多个交易日增长，期间9只个股获融资净买入超30亿元，寒武纪（688256.SH）、新易盛（300502.SZ）、胜宏科技 （300476.SZ）位居前三，分别获融资净买入68.95亿元、59.57亿元、59.1亿元，寒武纪、新易盛、天孚通信（300394.SZ）8月以来股价翻倍。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 数字货币、消费电子、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前。 | 稳定币 | 小基站 | eSIM-F | 智能IC | 数字货币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -5.76% | -5.40% | -5.21% | -4.91% | -4.87% | | 网络切片 | | 高速铜连接航天科工系第三方支付电子身份证 | | | | -4.64% | -4.49% | | -4.25% -4.24% | -4.21% | | 汽系 -4.60% | 卫星 ...