黄金技术面分析：昨天发文说黄金大概率会下跌，随后黄金如期跌至4407美元一线。那么今天黄金短线 是什么方向呢？ 昨日早间开盘后一路缓慢下跌，截止到美盘最低触及到了4407一线位置后继续反转，于早间最高触及到 了4484附近，日线报收一根带较长下影线的小阳线，非农数据临近，市场整体情绪还是偏谨慎，多空都 比较受制，日内的话整体走势依旧看反复，不看好能有太大的张力，下方关注4430/25附近强支撑，上 方关注4485/90一带压力区，白盘寻找一些高抛低吸的机会，晚间等待非农落地后根据市场表现我们顺 势跟进即可。 前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（1月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于4476.51美元/盎司。周四现货黄金在经历早 盘下探 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]

国债： （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 来源：市场资讯 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场震荡分化，Wind全A上涨0.08%，成交额2.83万亿元，中证1000指数上涨0.82%，中证 500指数上涨0.25%，沪深300指数下跌0.82%，上证50指数下跌0.73%。国防军工领涨，有色金属、非银 金融回调。资金情绪继续高涨，据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近1020亿元为 A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500指数成长标 的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5会员单位IF净 空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会因为跨年的结束而大幅净流 出。短期来看，预计股指短期仍在10月以来构建的震荡中枢内震荡。以中证1000为例，其三季度营业收 入累计同比增速2.6%左右，对其当前估值构成明显支撑，不易发生流动性风险。另一方面，春季躁动 行情需要一定的条件 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and a decline, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable [3][12] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,150 tons to 141,075 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 2,255 tons to 467,165 tons [3][12] - Demand for copper is slowing due to high prices, leading to a rigid procurement demand in the market [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 3.34% to $17,065 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 4.48% to 136,510 yuan per ton [4][14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 666 tons to 276,300 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 554 tons to 39,330 tons [4][14] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local prices, but specific quota levels for 2026 remain undisclosed [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2605 settling at 2,797 yuan per ton, down 2.95% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also declined, with AL2602 closing at 23,710 yuan per ton, a drop of 1.17% [6][15] - The market is facing inventory pressure due to increased shipments and reduced outflows from major sales areas [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,535 yuan per ton, down 4.53% [7][16] - Polysilicon contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract at 53,610 yuan per ton, a 9% drop [7][16] - The market is experiencing significant volatility, and a cautious approach is recommended due to concerns over production capacity and demand [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 2.46% to 145,000 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 5,000 yuan to 138,500 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources contributing to the supply [8][17] - Concerns over actual supply and pricing mechanisms in the lithium market are prevalent, with expectations of continued demand despite potential price declines [8][17]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating potential for further strength despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, fluctuated to a low of $4407.55, and closed at $4477.11, with a daily range of $71.65 and a gain of $17.43, or 0.39% [1]. - The market experienced pressure from increased margin requirements for precious metals futures and better-than-expected initial data, but support buying helped gold recover [3]. Market Outlook - The outlook remains bullish with a target of $5000 or higher, despite potential short-term pressures from upcoming employment data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [5][6]. - Geopolitical risks and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to support a bullish sentiment [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a strong upward trend, with potential for over 30% gains if the price maintains above key support levels [8][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4445 and $4420, while resistance levels are at $4500 and $4525 [10]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains positive, with expectations of further price increases driven by geopolitical factors and monetary policy [6][8].

Group 1 - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1001.82 CNY per gram, up 0.21% [1] - International gold price is reported at 4479.7 USD per ounce, up 0.43% [2] Group 2 - U.S. weak employment data strengthens market expectations for at least two rate cuts in 2026, benefiting gold as a non-yielding asset; the upcoming non-farm payroll report on January 9 is a key event [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, with U.S. military actions in Venezuela and threats against Colombia driving safe-haven investments into gold; central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continue to increase gold reserves, with a 30,000-ounce increase to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [4] Group 3 - Institutions are generally bullish on gold prices in the long term, with HSBC predicting prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce in the first half of the year, while Morgan Stanley expects a rise to 4800 USD per ounce in Q4; however, short-term pressures from Bloomberg commodity index adjustments may lead to passive selling [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights that gold has become the largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the value of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas, with a value of $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion for U.S. debt [1] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive of precious metals, with easing inflation pressures and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to sustain the long-term upward trend of gold prices [2][19] - The supply of silver remains tight, with industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, driving investment interest, while platinum demand is also expected to rise due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy [2][19] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to reach new highs, with strong terminal demand and a weekly production increase of 259 tons to 22,420 tons, despite anticipated declines in the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 [3][23] - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a potential for upward price movement despite short-term price fluctuations [3][24] - The rubber market is experiencing price stability due to supply constraints and steady tire production, with expectations of a strong performance in rubber prices [4][16] Group 3 - The restructuring of China National Petroleum Corporation and China Aviation Oil Group is approved by the State Council, indicating a trend towards strategic and professional consolidation among state-owned enterprises [8] - The U.S. government is intervening in the financial market by purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates, which is seen as a form of quantitative easing [6]

【导读】美股涨跌不一，道指收高；原油收高，能源股全线上涨 美东时间1月8日（周四），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指收高270点，纳指承压。苹果连续7个交易日收跌。嘉能可与力拓重启谈判，计划组建全球规 模最大的矿业公司。 道指收高270点 截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.25点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.53点，涨幅为0.01%， 报6921.46点。 美国总统特朗普表示，美国对委内瑞拉的监督可能会持续数年，将以非常有利可图的方式重建委内瑞拉。 特朗普政府计划在美国销售委内瑞拉生产的重质高硫、具有腐蚀性的原油。美国墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂设备配置正好适合加工此类原油。沿岸21座主要炼厂 的潜在总加工能力合计超过700万桶/日。 交易员继续评估美国对委内瑞拉石油实施控制的措施，WTI 2月期货上涨3.2%，结算价报每桶57.76美元。布伦特3月期货结算价上涨3.4%，报每桶61.99美 元。 能源股全线上涨，埃克森美孚涨超3%，雪佛龙涨逾2%，康菲石油涨超5%，斯伦贝谢涨近5%，西方石油涨超5%。 | 西方石油(OCCIDEN ...

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月08日16时41分 今日贵金属承压回落，沪金主力收跌0.73%，沪银主力收跌5.90%，铂金主力收跌6.72%，钯金主力收涨跌3.57%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market fundamentals are favorable for gold prices, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying, indicating potential for gold to rise again [1][2][6]. Market Analysis - Gold experienced a significant drop initially but quickly stabilized and rebounded due to favorable market conditions, particularly driven by geopolitical tensions following the arrest of Venezuela's president, which heightened market risk aversion [2][6]. - As the situation in Venezuela becomes more digested by the market and with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, some investors opted to take profits, increasing short-term selling pressure and causing gold's upward momentum to stall [2][3][6]. Technical Indicators - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4415 and $4400, while resistance levels are noted at $4455 and $4475 [3][7]. - The daily chart indicates that after a strong rise at the beginning of the week, gold's upward trend is currently facing resistance, leading to a high-level consolidation [2][6]. - Technical indicators show mixed signals: a slight golden cross in the 5-day moving average, a minor death cross in the MACD, and a downward turn in the KDJ indicator, suggesting a need for adjustment after the recent rebound [2][6].