Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market continues to decline, with significant drops in various cryptocurrency ETFs, indicating a loss of momentum and support that had previously driven prices higher [1] Market Performance - As of the latest report, major cryptocurrency ETFs such as Bosera Ethereum (03009) fell by 5.7% to HKD 2.18, Huaxia Ethereum (03046) dropped 5.56% to HKD 6.79, and both Jiashi Bitcoin (03439) and Huaxia Bitcoin (03042) decreased by 5.56% and 5.5% respectively, with prices at HKD 10.71 and HKD 10.65 [1] - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% and falling below USD 87,000 for the first time since April, reflecting a broader market weakness [1] Market Dynamics - The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to a new wave of risk aversion and sell-offs in technology stocks, leading to the exit of major support players such as large investment funds and ETF allocators [1] - The withdrawal of institutional support, which had previously bolstered prices, has triggered a new phase of market vulnerability, making it more susceptible to selling pressure and volatility [1] External Influences - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic signals have acted as a catalyst for the current market conditions, with institutional allocations and spot ETF inflows that had supported prices in the first half of the year now rapidly retreating as the sentiment shifts to a defensive stance [1]

Market Overview - Global market risk aversion continues to escalate, with US stocks experiencing volatile trading, while Japanese and Korean stock markets opened with significant declines [1] - As of 8:40 AM Beijing time, the Nikkei 225 index fell over 2%, with SoftBank Group's stock dropping 11%, marking its largest single-day decline since November 5 [1][2] Japanese Stock Market Impact - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 48,699.16, down 1,124.78 points or 2.26% from the previous close [2] - The Korean Composite Index fell over 3%, with Samsung Electronics down over 4% and SK Hynix down over 7% [2] Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The delayed US September employment report indicated an increase of 119,000 jobs, surpassing economists' expectations, which has diminished investor hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5] - Concerns over deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations have led to a decline in Japan's tourism-related stocks, with reports of a significant number of canceled orders from Chinese tourists [5] Economic Forecasts - Predictions suggest that the Chinese government's travel advisories could result in a loss of approximately 1.79 trillion yen (about 11.5 billion USD) in tourism revenue for Japan over the next year, potentially reducing Japan's real GDP by 0.29% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The major U.S. stock indices experienced a significant opening but fell into negative territory due to a loss of momentum, with concerns surrounding the sustainability of AI-driven gains and broader market anxieties impacting investor sentiment [1] Group 1: AI and Technology Sector - The boost from artificial intelligence appears to be temporary, as evidenced by the performance of Nvidia's earnings, which may have only briefly restored confidence in AI trading [1] - The information technology sector led the decline in the S&P 500 index today, indicating a broader market reaction to the perceived instability of AI-related investments [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Concerns - There are growing concerns not only about the AI bubble but also about the Federal Reserve's potential decision to lower interest rates in December, which continues to loom over the market [1] - Risk-averse sentiment remains prevalent, as seen by the continued decline in Bitcoin prices over the past weeks, alongside high-momentum stocks like Robinhood and Western Digital also experiencing significant losses [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index strengthened for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since November 6, with a daily increase of 0.5%, marking the largest single-day gain since September 25 [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for maintaining rates through 2025, while others suggested a potential rate cut in December if economic performance aligns with expectations [1] - Concerns about financial stability were raised, particularly regarding the risk of a disorderly decline in the stock market, leading to a consensus among officials to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) actions [1] Group 2 - The delayed September non-farm employment report is set to be released, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% [2] - The dollar index has been on the rise since June, partly due to a rebound in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index reaching historical highs before a recent pullback in large tech stocks [2] - Market expectations for a cumulative rate cut of 85 basis points by the end of 2026 indicate a divergence regarding the likelihood of a December rate cut, with some analysts predicting a rebound for the dollar in early 2026 [2]

上交易日周三(11月19日)：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收涨，多头动力未能持稳增强，但也处在中轨上方， 美联储会议纪要整体显示未来仍偏向宽松政策，故此，前景上，金价仍偏向看涨。短暂的回撤或震荡调 整，也仍是在为多头制造入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4066.08美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4055.54美元，之后震荡反弹回升， 一直延续到美盘23点时段录得日内高点4132.38美元，并就此连续跳水走低，2小时左右再度触及日内低 点一线，最终触底回升，收于4077.77美元，日振幅76.84美元，收涨11.69美元，涨幅0.29%。 影响上，日内受到周二公布的ADP周度就业数据显示就业疲态延续，增强了市场对美联储可能在12月降 息的预期等预期推动金价走强，但美盘时段此预期又被反转，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温至30%，美 俄被曝绕开乌克兰秘密拟定28点和谈框架减弱避险情绪，美元指数强势走强收涨，打压金价连续跳水， 最终由于支持买盘和美联储会议纪要：多数官员认为随着时间的推移会进一步放松政策而限制了回落力 量，使其反弹收涨。 展望今日周四(11月20日)：国际黄金开盘先行走强，重回30日均线上方，延续隔夜尾盘回 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have shown a moderate upward trend, with support around $4110, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid a lack of key economic indicators due to the delay in the U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate a hawkish tone, with most officials not supporting further easing in December, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations from approximately 42% to around 30% [1][2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty in the labor market, making the upcoming non-farm payroll data crucial for reassessing December's policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - The euro has experienced a notable decline, with a daily drop of nearly 0.5%, primarily due to the FOMC minutes suggesting limited support for rate cuts, which has shifted market risk towards the dollar [2] - The probability of a rate cut has decreased to about 33%, while the dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, limiting the euro's rebound potential [2] - Despite some officials believing in the possibility of easing in December, the majority prefer to maintain the current pace, reflecting a cautious hawkish stance that has led to a reassessment of rate cut paths [2][4] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key variable influencing market direction, with volatility likely to remain high until the data is released [4] - If the non-farm data is weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, benefiting gold prices; conversely, strong data could lead to short-term adjustments in gold prices [5]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is under pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty regarding the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut, although safe-haven demand is limiting its decline [1] Group 2 - The World Platinum Investment Council predicts a significant shortage in the platinum market for the third consecutive year, with a shortfall of 22 tons, revised down by 5 tons from previous forecasts [3] - Total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 2% year-on-year to 222 tons in 2025, marking a five-year low, while total demand is projected to decline by 13 tons [3] - Platinum's supply is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia, with South Africa holding nearly 90% of global platinum group metal reserves [3] - Platinum is essential in various industries, including jewelry, automotive, glass, aerospace, and chemicals, and its demand may significantly increase with advancements in hydrogen energy technology [3] - Platinum prices are expected to break through the 400 yuan per gram mark in 2025, with an annual increase exceeding 80% driven by rising prices of gold, silver, and other minor metals [3]

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

投资者对科技股高估值泡沫与美联储政策路径不确定性的担忧加剧，市场避险情绪升温，导致全球股市普遍承压。 11月19日，美股期指涨跌互现，欧股指跌多涨少，亚洲股市连续第四日下跌，美元及美债基本持平，日本国债价格回落。商品方面，金银齐涨， 原油下跌。加密货币市场上，比特币在失守9万美元关口后收复部分失地。 市场焦点正集中于即将发布的英伟达财报，市场情绪谨慎。美东时间11月19日盘后（北京时间11月20日早间），英伟达将公布第三季度财报，该 财报不仅反映其作为AI龙头企业的自身表现，更被视为AI板块乃至全球市场情绪的重要风向标。 巴克莱银行前首席执行官、现任投资公司Atlas Merchant Capital的负责人Bob Diamond表示，近日全球市场的动荡类似于一次"健康的调整"，投资 者正在评估技术变革的各个方面。他称： 投资者关注的另一个重点是美联储下个月是否会降息。目前互换交易显示，12月份降息的可能性不到50%。目前利率路径仍存分歧，一些政策制 定者警告，降低利率存在通胀风险。 日本10年期国债收益率攀升2个基点至1.765%，创下自2008年6月全球金融危机以来的最高水平。 美股期指集体转涨，标普50 ...