避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...

现货黄金市场走势复杂，6月23日高开后持续走低，一度失守3360美元/盎司，目前高位震荡。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达指出，中东局势主导市场避险情 绪，金价此前上涨已含地缘政治风险溢价。若局势恶化，避险情绪升温将推动金价上行；若有谈判转机，短期避险需求消退或引发价格回调。黄金稀缺性、 抗通胀性及与美元负相关性使其成为保值工具，但近期资金部分流向港股消费板块和白银市场。白银因金银比修复与工业需求爆发具双重吸引力，尽管对经 济周期敏感度高于黄金，但金融属性与能源革命共振形成独特配置价值。顾冯达认为，金银作为战略性金属核心逻辑未变，全球央行购金趋势、地缘政治风 险及货币体系不确定性强化其避险与保值属性，中长期资金分流是阶段性现象，贵金属板块或具上涨动能与配置价值。 不过，市场对黄金价格未来走势存在分歧。花旗银行看空金价，称美联储降息预期将削弱黄金吸引力，购金需求下降，预计未来几个季度金价将跌破3000美 元/盎司，到2026年下半年回落至每盎司约2500至2700美元水平。（陈十一） A股市场方面，6月23日早盘指数低开，三大股指一度飘红，截至10:40，约3500股上涨。原油市场反应强烈，早盘WTI原油主力期货一度涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are driving an increase in risk aversion, which supports the rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) has risen over 1.1%, reflecting the strengthening of precious metals due to heightened risk aversion [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), tracked by the gold stock ETF, includes companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, providing a representative performance of the gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to continued fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with strong long-term support for copper prices [1] - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, while strategic metals like neodymium oxide have seen a price recovery from a low point [1] - The black tungsten concentrate price has reached a historical high, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for strategic minor metals like antimony and tungsten amid supply chain autonomy trends [1]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 交易提示 | | | | 显示，今年前五个月，全国一般公共预算支出达 112953 亿元，同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 4.2%。全国一般公共预算收入 96623 亿元，同比下降 0.3%，降幅略有收 | | | | | 窄。据国家有关部门消息，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴 | | | | | 资金使用进度符合预期，后续还将有 1380 亿元中央资金在三、四季度分 | | | | | 批有序下达。中国人民银行与香港金管局启动跨境支付通，将于 6 月 22 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 日上线运行。支持用户通过参与机构的手机银行、网上银行等渠道，线上 | | | | | 发起内地与香港间人民币和港币的跨境汇款；支持经常项目项下一定金额 | | | | | 内的便利化汇款实时到账。国家发改委组织集中向民间资本新推介项目 | | | | | 3200 余个，聚焦能源、新型基础设施、城市基础设施、仓储物流、制造 | | ...

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened market volatility and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and oil [1][2]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening near $3400 and reaching a peak of $3398.02 before settling at $3365.62, reflecting a 0.2% increase amid rising risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. dollar index rose to a near three-week high of 99.23, driven by safe-haven flows, while U.S. stock index futures initially fell by nearly 1% [1][2]. Group 2 - Central banks globally continued to purchase gold in the first half of 2025, supporting the bullish trend in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [2]. - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts later in the year are expected to maintain a favorable environment for gold prices, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year [2]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to further increases in oil prices and inflationary pressures globally [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a bearish trend, with resistance levels identified at $3375 and potential support around $3340 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling at higher levels, particularly around $3375-$3380, while considering buying opportunities near $3340-$3345 [5]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with traders advised to monitor key economic indicators such as U.S. PCE data and PMI figures from Europe and the U.S. [2][5].

2025年06月23日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：周五铜价震荡运行。 基本面：周末美国轰炸伊朗核设施，避险情绪可能升温。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续，周度 TC 依然在-45 美 金。精废价差 920 元低位。全球库存持续去化，尤其 LME 库存下降到十万吨以内，结构 278 美金 back。另 外，市场关注 232 落地时间是否会改变伦敦挤仓情况。 交易策略：维持逢低买入思路。 风险提示：流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 工 业 硅 市场表现：周五盘面震荡下行，主力 09 合约收于 7390 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 80 元/吨，持仓减少 4801 手至 305556 手。今日仓单量净减少 556 手至 54623 手。 基本面：上周现货端价格止跌。供给端未出现明显收缩，开炉数增加 5 台。周度库存连续两周小幅去库，盘 面下跌后仓单显性库存转隐形库存。需求端，多晶硅六月产量或较五月小幅上涨，本周有复产计划。有机硅 产量较稳定，产业链价格跌幅走扩。铝合金下游需求进入消费淡季，开工率较稳定。 交易策略：如果期货价格继续上涨，可能会面临套保压力，盘面反弹幅度或有限。 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（6月16日至6月20日）A股市场出现回调，主要源于PMI、工业增长、社融等宏观表现 略不及预期，投资者对经济复苏节奏产生担忧，风险偏好降低。蓝筹股相对抗跌，上证 50 仅微跌 0.10%，而中证 500、中证 1000 及万得微盘指数相对跌幅则明显更大，科创 50 下跌 1.55%，或因部分 科技企业盈利兑现难度大，成长风格整体受挫。中证红利虽有红利支撑，但仍微幅下挫0.42%，显示市 场避险情绪全面升温。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均跌幅1.24%。板块方面，仅10%板块获得正收益，银行、通信、电子相对 表现良好，分别上涨2.63%、1.58%、0.95%，而医药生物、纺织服饰、美容护理则明显走弱，分别下跌 4.35%、5.12%、5.86%。 单位：% 基金发行： 上周合计发行46只，其中股票型基金发行20只，混合型基金发行14只，债券型基金发行9 只，QDII型基金发行1只，FOF型基金发行2只，总发行份额459.23亿份。 基金表现 ：上周万得全基指数下跌 0.70% 。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数下跌 1.54% ，万得偏股混 合型基金指数下跌 1.65% ， ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, global investors are highly anxious about potential chain reactions and the possibility of a broader Middle Eastern war [1] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $100,000 with a decline of approximately 3%, while the total market capitalization of major cryptocurrencies evaporated by $250 billion within 24 hours [2][4] - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude futures rising by 11% to $77 per barrel, as traders anticipate further increases due to the uncertain geopolitical situation [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market observers predict that concerns over escalating warfare will likely depress stock prices, while bonds may see a boost [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen a slight decline of about 3% from its historical high in February, indicating a relatively muted market response despite ongoing tensions [5] - Investors are currently focused on the potential implications of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Iranian officials have stated that the U.S. must bear responsibility for the consequences of the war, emphasizing their right to self-defense [7][8] - Israel has confirmed attacks on Iranian military targets, including the city of Bushehr, which houses Iran's only operational nuclear power plant [8] - U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have called for direct negotiations with Iran, indicating a willingness to engage diplomatically [9]

中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚不平静！美国下场轰炸了伊朗的核设施之后，全球投资者高度紧张，担 心接下来会发生一连串的连锁反应。甚至可能引发更广泛的中东战争。 比特币跳水，跌破10万美元大关 6月22日晚间， 比特币跌破100000美元，跌幅在3%左右。 受美国卷入以色列、伊朗冲突，该局势或将升级为更大范围地区战争的担忧影响，比特币价 格盘中跳水。在最初对以色列与伊朗交火反应冷淡后，比特币价格已跌破每枚10万美元，以 太坊、瑞波币和其他主流加密货币也纷纷暴跌，在短短24小时内蒸发了2500亿美元的总市 值。 【导读】 比特币已跌破10万美元 在美国对伊朗三大主要核设施发动袭击之后，交易员预测，股市将下跌，原油价格将上涨， 美元可能走强，因为投资者在动荡中寻求避险资产。 市场观察人士表示，战争可能进一步升级的担忧，很可能会压低股价，而债券可能因此受到 提振。如果伊朗采取封锁霍尔木兹海峡（这一关键的石油和天然气运输通道）或袭击驻中东 美军等回应举措，市场波动将更加剧烈。 Premier Miton Investors首席投资官尼尔·比雷尔表示："市场的初步反应将是避险情绪上 升，股市可能会走弱。鉴于当前股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].