在全球经济和关税目前,实质上是贸易政策不确定性的再暴露;一方面,贸易摩擦会扰动跨国供应链与企业 盈利预期,二来则可能促使企业与主权实体寻求硬通货或对冲工具以规避信用与汇率风险,因此即便关税 最终未落实,市场的信息传导与风险重估已在短期内为金银提供了"避风港"属性的支撑。 地缘风险放大避险情绪 近期推动黄金白银在新一周开盘阶段出现明显冲高,市场在政治、地缘与货币层面的不确定性持续累积 下,避险情绪快速升温;同时,美日汇率层面罕见互动使美元承压,进一步强化贵金属的"美元计价"优势。高 地集团发现回顾本轮行情,金价上涨的核心并非单一因素,而是贸易摩擦升级、地缘冲突风险加剧以及全 球货币政策预期变化三条逻辑共同发酵。 从关税言论看政治风险对贵金属的路径 本周四的美联储会议成为时间上的关键节点。当前市场普遍认为短期内降息不会立即到来,本次会议焦 点不在利率数字本身,而是鲍威尔会后讲话对"降息节奏"和对经济/通胀判断的传递,如果美联储偏向鸽派 且暗示加速降息路径,实际利率预期将下降,进而利好贵金属;相反,若措辞偏鹰或强调耐心,短期贵金属波 动可能受压。总体而言,议息周更像是波动的引爆点,而非决定性逆转因素。 白银的双重属 ...

1月27日，日本央行最新公布的经常账户数据并未显示出明确迹象，表明东京当局在上周五采取了日元 买入的干预措施，尽管当日市场出现了剧烈波动。这是自2024年7月以来的首次潜在干预窗口，虽然数 据未能证实行动的存在，但官方的强硬口吻已引发市场对政策转向的高度警惕。日本央行周一发布的数 据显示，预计由于财政因素，周二经常账户余额将减少6300亿日元。这一数字虽然超过了货币经纪商平 均预估的约1670亿日元的降幅，但两者之间的差距远小于2022年以来最小规模的单次干预金额7290亿日 元。这一相对微小的差异使得市场难以判断当局是否进行了小规模的"试探性"买入，亦或完全未入场。 另外，蒙特利尔银行资本市场加入了看涨大军，该行预计，在多头情境下，到今年第四季度，黄金期货 价格可能突破6000美元/盎司，而白银可能涨至150美元。"考虑到自我们去年12月发布价格展望以来地 缘政治事件的规模和冲击性质，包括委内瑞拉局势、格陵兰岛局势，以及近期加拿大面临的100%关税 威胁，我们借此机会构建一个看涨情景，"由Helen Amos和George Heppel领导的BMO分析师在一份研究 报告中表示。 该团队的看涨情景分析显示，黄 ...

1月27日，昨日金价上演了史诗级的"冲天-回落"行情。亚市早盘，金价在周末地缘紧张气氛中跳空高 开，随后势如破竹，连续突破5000、5100美元两大历史关口，盘中最高触及5111美元/盎司。然而，极 致的狂欢之后是剧烈的反转。由于获利了结盘汹涌而出，加之消息面出现微妙变化，金价在美盘尾段自 高位大幅跳水，一度跌破5000美元关口，日内波动幅度超过100美元，最终收盘于5008美元附近，日线 收出一根带有极长上影线的小阳线。 周二（1月27日），市场的走势再次被特朗普的动态所主导。其针对欧洲的关税威胁，一度成为推升黄 金价格大涨的直接动力。然而，行情的反转紧随其后：特朗普在伊朗问题上释放了缓和信号，表示伊朗 方面希望达成协议。这一表态在很大程度上缓解了市场对地缘冲突即时升级的焦虑，并迅速成为了场内 获利盘集中了结、锁定利润的导火索。与此同时，市场即将迎来关键节点：本周四凌晨，美联储将公布 2026年首次利率决议。尽管市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，但在此类重大政策事件前夕，前期积累了巨 大浮盈的多头资金倾向于离场观望、规避不确定性，这无疑进一步加剧了市场的短期抛售压力。 尽管如此，我们仍不能低估当前宏观环境的核心驱 ...

1月26日，黄金市场上演了一场"冲高回落"的震荡大戏。在避险情绪的短暂推动下，金价早盘高开高走 并刷新历史纪录，但随后伴随美盘时段的获利了结浪潮，价格大幅回落，最终日线以极具警示意义的射 击之星形态收尾。这一形态的出现，为今日黄金市场的走势奠定了"短期回调"的主基调，也给投资者带 来了明确的交易指引。回顾昨日市场走势，多空博弈的激烈程度可见一斑。早盘时段，受全球地缘局势 不确定性引发的避险买盘支撑，黄金价格直接高开于5006点位。开盘后行情并未盲目冲高，而是经历了 短暂的理性回踩，最低下探至4998.6点位，在确认支撑有效后，多头力量开始集中爆发，推动金价进入 强势拉升阶段。盘中涨幅持续扩大，日线最高触及5111.8点位，创下历史新高，展现出近期黄金市场的 强劲上涨动能。 然而，历史新高的出现也引发了市场的获利了结热潮。欧盘尾盘至美盘时段，前期积累的大量短期获利 盘开始集中离场，叠加部分机构资金的阶段性调仓，黄金价格从高位快速回落。日线最低下探至4988.8 点位，随后在低位展开窄幅整理。截至收盘，黄金价格定格在5011.5点位，较日内高点回落近100个 点，日线最终收出一根上影线极长的射击之星K线形态。 从 ...

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 103029 | 0 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（1月27日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计103029千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 地缘冲突和贸易摩擦引发避险情绪，全球主流机构上调价格预测，资金提前配置支撑金价，人民币升值 导致国内价格弱于外盘。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周二（1月27日）黄金期货开盘价1145.94元/克，截至目前最高1154.46元/克， 最低1112.78元/克。截止发稿报1148.38元/克，涨幅1.52%，成交量为401545手，持仓为217484手，日持 仓增加1664手。 国际金价收涨 1.99% 报 4762.65 美元 / 盎司，创 "二连阳"；国内金价在 20 日均线上方运行。 ...

铜冠金源期货：预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宏观方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，经济仍显示韧性，但地缘冲突影响持续，避险情绪升 温；油价遇阻力位回落。基本面上，美国对加拿大施压威胁加征100%关税，加总理表示并不寻求与中 国达成贸易协议，加菜籽远端进口仍有变数；当前澳菜籽到港，但同比偏少，短期国内偏紧格局不改， 支撑菜油大幅度走强。高频数据对马棕油产量减少，出口增加进一步确认，预计1月底库存将下滑，对 价格有提振。预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行。 宁证期货：短期棕榈油易涨难跌 1月27日盘中，棕榈油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9208.00元。截止发稿，棕榈油主力 合约报9202.00元，涨幅2.27%。 棕榈油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宁证期货 短期棕榈油易涨难跌 中辉期货 棕榈油近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待 马来西亚最新出口数据公布，棕榈油出口环比涨幅均较此前1-20日下降；从产量来看，减产幅度同样不 及此前1-20日。但是加拿大与中国的贸易协定因美国而搁置，加菜籽依然无法进口，带动棕榈油价格走 强。 ...

消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集 重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。此外，特朗普24日威胁将对加拿大商品征收100%的关税， 美国与加拿大的紧张关系也面临加剧。受避险情绪影响，现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司。上期所沪 银主力合约触及涨停，报28226元/千克，现涨幅为17.0%。 国联民生（601456）证券认为，全球地缘紧张局势升温，贵金属避险情绪提升，价格继续上行。长期来 看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线持续，继续看好金价上行。白银兼具工业和金融属性，光伏用银需求持 续，看好工业需求提振带来白银补涨行情。 黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)涨7.19%，报42.66港元；中国白银集团 (00815)涨7.35%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨6.09%，报25.78港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨 5.74%，报42.74港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨5.2%，报48.54港元。 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 紫金矿业 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 紫金矿业 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, energy products, shipping futures, and oilseeds all rising, while agricultural products showed mixed performance [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening marginally, but the overall steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. - The rise of copper prices is restricted due to the increase in global copper inventories and the suppression of demand by high prices, while precious metals are supported by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. - The bullish sentiment in the domestic crude - oil sector is high, driven by external markets. The short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation, and the global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026 [1]. - Oilseeds rose due to strong export sales data and positive market sentiment. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Market - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 12.78%, energy products all rose (fuel oil up 6.81%), shipping futures all rose (Containerized Freight Index (Europe Line) up 5.46%), oilseeds all rose (rapeseed oil up 4.08%), most chemical products rose (butadiene rubber up 3.59%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass up 2.45%), most base metals rose (Shanghai tin up 1.37%), black series showed mixed performance (coking coal up 1.35%), most new energy materials rose (polysilicon up 1.19%), and agricultural products led the decline (pigs down 0.99%) [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Different Commodity Sectors 3.2.1 Black Series - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, suppressing iron ore. With high inventories, iron ore futures fluctuated lower. In the future, although the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, the steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and closed slightly higher. The rise was driven by precious metals, but the increase in global copper inventories and high - price suppression of demand limited the rise. Precious metals such as Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver hit new highs due to geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemical Products - Driven by external markets, the domestic crude - oil sector was bullish. Short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation. The global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, but the surplus pressure in the first quarter is reduced due to OPEC+ suspending production increase [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds - Driven by strong export sales data, US soybeans continued to rise slightly, and domestic soybeans also rose. With the approaching Spring Festival, soybean meal prices stopped falling and rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1].

受到地缘政治紧张局势升级，特朗普关税政策、美联储独立性担忧、美国联邦政府关门等因素的综合作用，市场避 险情绪高涨，资金涌入黄金，推动国际金价逼近5100美元，A股和港股的贵金属板块延续强劲涨势。商业航天板块 继续调整，此前人民日报刊文称，我国商业航天当前困局包括发射工位紧张、资源受限、应用场景不足。 1月27日，A股震荡回升，三大股指盘初一度集体下跌，创业板、深成指跌超1%，随后温和上涨，创业板涨 0.45%。贵金属板块活跃，新能源电池产业链、电工电网、生物科技等板块纷纷下跌。港股震荡上涨，恒指涨1%， 恒科指盘初下跌之后，转涨，科网股涨跌不一，京东、百度跌超1%。有色金属继续走强，紫金黄金国际大涨 13%，此前，紫金矿业公告称，旗下紫金黄金国际拟斥资280亿元人民币（55亿加元），以44加元/股收购加拿大联 合黄金公司全部股权。债市方面，国债期货小幅上涨。商品方面，国内商品期货多数品种走低，沪银逆势涨超 6%，沪金涨超1%，铂金、钯金显著调整。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0000 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The zinc price may continue to show a high - level oscillation pattern. The price is likely to rise due to sentiment and news, but limited by the weak fundamental reality, it has limited power for continuous increase. There is a risk of oscillation and decline after repeated high - level movements [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 24,680 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,645 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,805 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,565 yuan/ton, the increase was 115 yuan, the increase rate was 0.47%, the position was 28,502 lots, and the position change was 203 lots. For SHFE zinc 2603, the opening price was 24,715 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,725 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,880 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,635 yuan/ton, the increase was 160 yuan, the increase rate was 0.65%, the position was 121,627 lots, and the position change was 1,452 lots. For SHFE zinc 2604, the opening price was 24,740 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,795 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,690 yuan/ton, the increase was 175 yuan, the increase rate was 0.71%, the position was 59,031 lots, and the position change was 9,748 lots. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan, an increase rate of 0.65%, with increased volume and positions. The 02 - 03 spread was - 80. On January 26th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 111,325 tons, LME0 - 3C was 32.62, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.50 [7] - **Market Situation**: The situation in Greenland has temporarily cooled down, while the situation in the Middle East has become tense. Trump threatened military intervention in the Iranian situation, driving up the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals rose rapidly, and the non - ferrous metals sector closed up across the board. The increases of tin and copper exceeded 1 percentage point. The center of SHFE zinc moved slightly higher, with the increase narrowing in the afternoon [7] - **Industry Fundamentals**: Some mines have routine maintenance before the Spring Festival, leading to a contraction in supply. Although smelters' raw material inventories are relatively sufficient, the processing fee negotiation in February is still supported by the tightening of mine - end supply. On the demand side, the end of environmental inspections and other factors have driven the recovery of the primary consumption start - up rate. However, downstream enterprises generally digest inventories at high zinc prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, small and medium - sized enterprises have gradually entered the holiday mode, and the overall procurement sentiment has become cautious [7] Group 5: Industry News - On January 26, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,145 - 24,355 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan zinc was traded between 24,225 - 24,405 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,075 - 24,285 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, with few quotes against the futures price [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,155 - 24,305 yuan/ton. The conventional brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 95 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded between 24,020 - 24,210 yuan/ton, and Zijin zinc was traded between 24,050 - 24,250 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 23,190 - 24,040 yuan/ton. Zijin zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, Huxin zinc was quoted at around 25,510 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract. The 0 zinc ingots were quoted at a discount of 10 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 70 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 24,090 - 24,285 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory, but specific data in the charts are not detailed in the text [12][15]