Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged, reaching $4,179 per ounce, driven by factors such as U.S. government intervention leading to dollar depreciation and rising geopolitical uncertainties, which have increased investor demand for gold [1][3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since October 8, international spot gold has broken through the $4,000 and $4,100 per ounce thresholds [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with the price per gram reaching 1,213 yuan, up 400 yuan year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, influenced by government interventions, has led to a decline in dollar credibility, prompting central banks and investors to turn to gold [4]. - The new round of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has created economic uncertainty, heightening risk aversion among investors [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current market sentiment is predominantly bullish towards gold, with many investors buying in anticipation of further price increases [3][6]. - However, the stability of gold prices is questioned, as they rely on broad market consensus, and potential factors that could lead to price declines include central bank gold sales or excessively high prices deterring investors [7]. Group 4: Investor Strategies - Ordinary investors are advised to monitor signals indicating potential price declines, such as the 5-day moving average, to manage risks effectively [8].

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜兰素英 10月14日，现货白银再度创造历史，盘中价格一度冲高至每盎司53美元，创下历史新高。截至发稿，价格回落至51.56美元。 2025年初至今，白银已经累计上涨约80%，远超同期黄金约57%的涨幅。 伦敦市场出现前所未有的现货紧张，库存告急、交割延迟，部分机构甚至包下跨大 西洋航班的货舱，空运笨重的银锭——这种昂贵操作通常只用于金条运输——以赚取伦敦市场的溢价。 从历史上看，这并非白银第一次点燃全球市场的想象力。1980年，在通胀肆虐与市场操纵的狂潮中，白银被得州亿万富翁亨特兄弟推至50.35美元的高位； 2011年，在量化宽松与避险情绪的裹挟下，白银再度逼近这一心理关口。但两次疯狂的行情均以大跌结束。 如今，白银涨至53美元的历史高位，让市场不得不思考：这一次，究竟是投机旧梦重演，还是一个新的金属时代正在开启？白银能否打破"50美元魔咒"？ 1980年：石油大亨垄断下的畸形狂欢 1970年代末，美国经历了严重通货膨胀和经济动荡，投资者纷纷寻求硬通货避险。 彼时黄金和白银作为抗通胀资产受到追捧，两位得克萨斯州石油大亨——纳尔逊·邦克·亨特和小威廉·亨特兄弟笃定法定货币将大幅贬值 ...

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market experienced significant declines on October 14, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 2.58% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 1.99% [1] - Investor risk aversion increased due to uncertainties surrounding Japan's political situation and global trade dynamics, leading to a gap down at the market open and wide fluctuations during the morning session [1] - The defense-related stocks, which had surged following the election of high-profile political figure, saw notable declines by the end of the trading day [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed down 1241.48 points at 46847.32 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell 63.60 points to close at 3133.99 points [1] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange experienced declines, with significant drops in electrical products, non-ferrous metals, and securities and commodity futures trading sectors [1] - Only four sectors, including marine transportation, retail, steel, and food, recorded gains during the trading session [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has outperformed gold significantly in 2023, with silver prices reaching a historic high of over $53 per ounce, marking an 84% increase since early 2025, compared to gold's 56% increase in the same period [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver's market size is significantly smaller than gold's, estimated to be about one-tenth of the gold market, leading to higher volatility in silver prices [2] - Recent liquidity tightening in London, the global center for physical silver trading, has contributed to a sharp increase in silver prices, with a rise of over 35% since late August [2] Group 2: Investment Risks - Goldman Sachs analysts caution that silver lacks central bank support, making it more susceptible to price fluctuations and greater downside risks compared to gold [2][3] - The absence of central bank intervention means that even a temporary outflow of investment funds could trigger disproportionate price declines in silver [2][3] Group 3: Performance Characteristics - Silver typically acts as a "leveraged version" of gold, performing better during periods of macroeconomic risk aversion but also facing more severe declines when market sentiment shifts [3] - Silver's dependence on industrial demand, such as for photovoltaic applications, makes it more vulnerable to economic cycles, contrasting with gold's more stable safe-haven attributes [3]

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The uncertainty remains, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. The A-share market may fluctuate in the short term, but there are still structural opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs. Gold is expected to continue rising, and the bond market is turning bullish [15][16]. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - In the past two weeks (20250929 - 20251012), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.24%, -1.37%, and -1.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% [3]. - Most A-share sectors rose. The Wind All-A Index changed by 1.63%. Among different indexes, the CSI A100, SSE 50, and others showed varying degrees of increase, while some indexes like the ChiNext Index and the North Securities 50 Index declined [4]. - Among the 30 CITIC industries, 25 industries rose, and 5 declined. The leading industries were non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, with gains of more than 4.0% in the past two weeks [5]. Bond Market Performance - In the past two weeks, the price of interest rate bonds rose, and the yields of most maturity varieties declined. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.28% compared to September 28, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond declined by 5.75BP to 1.8206% [6]. - The capital price decreased. As of October 11, 2025, R007 was 1.4120%, a decrease of 22.60BP compared to September 28, 2025, and DR007 was 1.3945%, a decrease of 16.11BP. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 144.64 billion yuan in the past two weeks [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5-day average of the inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 6.35 trillion yuan on September 28, 2025, to 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11, 2025 [8][9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of October 11, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 15BP to 4.05% compared to September 26, 2025 [10]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index increased by 0.64% in the past two weeks. The US dollar had different exchange rate changes against the euro, pound, and yen, and also had mixed changes against the offshore and onshore RMB [11]. - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 5.43% to $3,974.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.75% to $3,986.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [11]. Policy and Trade Issues - China has strengthened export controls on some rare earth-related items and technologies. These controls are mainly targeted at military use items, and civilian and compliant items will be permitted. The policy has a reasonable transition period, and the government will promote compliant trade [12]. - The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China in response to China's rare earth export controls. China's Ministry of Commerce has responded, stating that China is not afraid of a tariff war. Whether the US will actually impose the tariff is uncertain, and if it does, China may retaliate. The impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that in early April [14][15].

10月13日，COMEX黄金价格继续上行突破创新高，已突破4090美元。黄金基金ETF（518800）上涨3.02%，黄金股票ETF（514700）上涨4.15%。 来源：Wind 市场避险情绪增强。此外，美国联邦政府停摆叠加数据空窗期带来宏观不确定性的大幅提升，美国两党政治僵局加剧、财政纪律弱化在逐步侵蚀美元 作为全球储备货币的基础。这一风险因素有望继续驱动金价上行。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币 市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风 险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

消息面上，10月13日，现货黄金一度升至每盎司4060美元上方，刷新历史新高。美国总统特朗普称将于 11月1日起，对中国进口商品加征100%的新关税，此税率为在现有已支付关税基础上额外增加的部分； 此外美国也会在同日对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制；关税风险显著升温。国信证券认为，伴随美国三 大股指下跌，避险情绪驱动黄金价格继续上涨，仍看好黄金中长期价格走势，居民资产配置中黄金的比 例在2-10%间较适宜，机构配置盘比例则可适当提升。 黄金股早盘多数走高，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)涨5.44%，报137.5港元；大唐黄金(08299)涨 5.38%，报0.49港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)涨3.87%，报33.82港元；万国黄金集团(03939)涨 3.64%，报37港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨3.72%，报19.52港元。 赤峰黄金 赤峰黄金 大唐黄金 灵宝黄金 万国黄金集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 32.68 0.58 1.81% 5.08% 3.40% 1.68% 0.00% 1.68% 3.40% 5.08% 30.47 31.01 31.56 32.10 32.64 ...

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/13 | 4067. 85 | 51.51 | 4086. 90 | 49. 49 | 927.56 | 11531.00 | 924. 40 | 11430.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/10/10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold reached a new all - time high of $4070 per ounce, and silver broke through the $50 mark and remained strong. The escalation of Sino - US trade friction and the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year created a resonance, and the continuation of the US government shutdown and data vacuum intensified the demand for hedging and allocation. Although the short - term sentiment is bullish, the risk of high - level fluctuations has increased [1]. - If risk events continue to ferment, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. London gold is expected to trade in the range of [3900 - 4200] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [48 - 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st and restrict the export of key software. China warned of counter - measures. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of the negotiations around the APEC meeting [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, and the congressional budget negotiation has reached a deadlock. The Senate plans to resume voting on Tuesday, and the unpaid leave of some federal employees has caused fiscal implementation risks [2]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthened. The CME FedWatch shows that the probabilities of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December are 96% and 87% respectively. New York Fed President Williams reiterated support for further interest rate cuts this year to address labor market weakness [2]. - Trump said that if Russia does not "compromise" soon, he will consider providing "tactical cruise missiles" to Ukraine. Russia warned that this would lead to an "uncontrollable escalation" of the situation, and geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has increased [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The resonance of trade friction and loose expectations has pushed up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the decline of the US dollar, and the US fiscal deadlock jointly support the price. The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, and the market continues to chase the rise in the sentiment of "no data is bullish". If there is a correction due to short - term technical overbought, $4000 is the primary support level, and the increase in price volatility may lead to phased profit - taking [3]. - **Silver**: Supported by the structural tightness of the London spot market, the lease rate remains high, and the physical premium is obvious. The abundant overall liquidity of precious metals and the short - squeeze effect make the increase of silver relatively ahead of gold. If the volatility significantly increases, one should be vigilant about the correction risk after the short - term increase in volatility. In the long - term, it is still supported by global de - dollarization and the recovery of industrial demand [3]. 3.3 Market Performance of Indexes - On October 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.76, down 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2520.82, down 0.80%; the industrial products index was 2225.76, down 0.58% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 10, 2025: the daily decline was 1.21%, the increase in the past 5 days was 4.99%, the increase in the past month was 11.25%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 43.23% [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 2.50% as of October 14, 2025, driven by significant gains in individual stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up 10.02% and China Rare Earth (000831) up 8.00% [1] - The increase in spot gold prices, reaching a record high of $4,148.93 per ounce, is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and tariff impacts, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that the downward trend in real interest rates, combined with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of further interest rate cuts in October [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 53.12% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]