巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：我们将把利率调整到实现目标所必需的水平。 ...

此外，美元兑一篮子货币小幅反弹，日内指数上涨至99.08，进一步压制金价。虽然美元前一交易日因 避险需求下滑而大幅走低，但技术性反弹和部分避险资金回流支撑了短期美元需求。 摘要周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时 缓解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时缓 解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 【要闻速递】 亚洲大国方面近日决定豁免部分美国商品关税，而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）则表 示，未来的谈判"取决于亚洲大国是否愿意采取实质行动"，暗示美方姿态有所缓和。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 三菱日联的Lee Hardman在一份报告中表示，即使日本央行在周四的会议上对进一步加息持谨慎态度， 日元仍有升值空间。鉴于美国加征关税，预计日本央行将下调今年的经济增长和核心通胀预期。 据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为91.1%，降息25个基点的概率为8.9%。美联储 到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows that nearly 80% of banks have a net interest margin (NIM) below the self-regulatory mechanism's warning line of 1.8%, indicating significant pressure on the banking sector's profitability as interest rates continue to decline [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - As of the end of 2024, 36 A-share listed banks reported a decline in NIM compared to the previous year, with the lowest being Shanghai Bank at 1.17%, down from 1.28% in 2023 [3][4]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank's NIM has dropped to 0.8%, while Luzhou Bank has the highest at 2.49% [4]. - Among non-listed banks, Shanxi Bank has a particularly low NIM of 0.57%, highlighting the pressure on smaller institutions [2][5]. Factors Influencing NIM - The decline in NIM is attributed to several factors, including the continuous reduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), insufficient effective credit demand, and a general decrease in the yield of interest-earning assets [5][7]. - The recent political bureau meeting has led to speculation about potential adjustments to deposit rates, particularly for smaller banks, which may face greater pressure to lower rates [2][6]. Market Expectations and Future Adjustments - Analysts predict that the next round of deposit rate adjustments may prioritize smaller banks to alleviate pressure on larger banks' liabilities [7][8]. - The overall trend indicates that banks will need to continue reducing deposit rates to manage funding costs and mitigate the narrowing of interest margins [7][8].

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold price at 785.14 CNY per gram, up by 0.47%, and the main Shanghai silver price at 8215.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.12% [1] - In contrast, international precious metal futures saw a decline, with COMEX gold priced at 3325.80 USD per ounce, down by 0.86%, and COMEX silver at 33.34 USD per ounce, down by 0.18% [1] Price Movement - On April 29, 2025, the opening, highest, and lowest prices for the main Shanghai gold were 782.90 CNY, 794.66 CNY, and 780.52 CNY per gram respectively [2] - The main Shanghai silver had opening, highest, and lowest prices of 8190.00 CNY, 8258.00 CNY, and 8176.00 CNY per kilogram respectively [2] - For COMEX gold, the opening, highest, and lowest prices were 3354.90 USD, 3359.30 USD, and 3314.80 USD per ounce respectively [2] - COMEX silver had opening, highest, and lowest prices of 33.40 USD, 33.50 USD, and 33.10 USD per ounce respectively [2] Economic Context - Recent observations indicate that U.S. President Trump's "pain threshold" is becoming a key factor limiting his potential market disruptions, as he has retreated from aggressive stances in response to financial market pressures [3] - Trump's concessions include postponing a planned tariff policy for 90 days after bond market volatility and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell amid declines in the stock market, bond market, and U.S. dollar [3] - These adjustments reflect the reality of economic interests, as stock market performance impacts his political image and public pensions, while bond market stability is crucial for government financing and his signature tax cuts [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - As of April 28, 2025, COMEX gold closed at 3354.8 USD per ounce, with a gain of 1.71%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 793.68 CNY per gram, up by 1.57% [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 91.1%, with an 8.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until June is 37.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 57.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 5.3% [4]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a strong rebound due to signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and President Trump's assurance regarding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's position. The Nasdaq Composite Index led the rally with a gain of 6.7%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 4.6% and 2.5%, respectively [1] Nasdaq Performance - The Nasdaq Index returned to positive territory in April, with the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) both gaining over 9% [2] Key Stocks in QQQ ETF - Five stocks that were at the forefront of the rally include Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA), AppLovin Corporation (APP), and Micron Technology (MU) [3][10] Trade Tensions - Reports indicate that China may suspend its 125% tariff on certain U.S. goods, which has positively impacted market sentiment. The potential tariff cuts could affect key sectors such as medical equipment and industrial chemicals [4] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump clarified that he does not plan to remove Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Some Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to consider interest rate cuts, with a potential cut as early as June being discussed [6] Earnings Highlights - Netflix (NFLX) reached an all-time high stock price of nearly $1,101, reflecting strong performance and investor confidence [7] - Despite Tesla's disappointing first-quarter results, shares rose after CEO Elon Musk expressed optimism about future goals [8] - Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) reported strong first-quarter results, exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, and announced a 5% dividend increase along with a $70 billion stock buyback authorization [8] QQQ ETF Fundamentals - Invesco QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with 59.5% of its assets in information technology and 20.2% in consumer discretionary. The ETF has an AUM of $286.8 billion and an average daily volume of over 63 million shares [11][12] Stock Performances - Microchip Technology (MCHP) saw a stock increase of 21.6% last week, with a slight positive earnings estimate revision [13] - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock rose about 20% last week, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 34.1% [14] - Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 18.1% despite an estimated earnings decline of 22.3% for the year [15] - AppLovin (APP) gained 16.2% with an estimated earnings growth rate of 47.46% [16] - Micron Technology (MU) increased by approximately 16% last week, with an estimated earnings growth of 426.9% for the fiscal year [16]

原油：多空交织反复，油价震荡反弹 正信期货原油周报 20250428 研究员：付馨苇 从业资格编号：F03101045 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国关税政策仍存不确定性，美伊谈判结果的反复也加剧市场波动。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储5月 维持当前利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为8.3%。美联储6月维持当前利率不变的概率为37.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为57.8%，降息50个基点的概率为4.9%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，美国对伊朗制裁措施还未完全落地，关注美伊暂定于5月3日举行的高级别会议，其结果将决定 制裁力度。欧佩克方面，欧佩克及其减产同盟国希望考虑在6月份继续加快石油产量增长，虽有成员国根据前期超产 情况提交补偿计划，但哈萨克斯坦称产油国利益大于同盟国利益，补偿减产或难落地，关注5月5日欧佩克会议。 Ø 需求端：美国油品即将进入季节性旺季，炼化端因提前备货开工率回升，美汽油裂解价差季 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五，贵金属回吐前日涨幅。鉴于避险情绪降温和美元坚挺 | | 研究员：王伟 | 伦敦金收跌 0.9%，报 3318.62 美元/盎司。伦敦银在 33 美元关口波动，最终收跌 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 1.53%，报 33.1 元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.77%，报 785.34 元/克，沪 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 银主力合约收跌 0.93%，报 8217 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数横向盘整，最终收涨 0.09%，报 99.47。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率回落，收报 4.26%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 4.人民币汇 ...

Lombard Odier表示，美国总统特朗普关税措施的"冲击"可能会促使日本央行在2025年维持利率不 变。"如果关税冲击消退，并且日本的贸易超过其在亚洲的出口竞争对手，"日本央行可能会在2026年上 半年加息，全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在报告中写道。Lombard认为，汽车以外的大多数出口产品 被征收10%的关税是可实现的最佳结果。 ...

证券研究报告·行业月报·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业月报 保险行业 3 月月报：寿险保费增速回暖，关 注后续预定利率调整落地情况 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 负债端、资产端均有改善机会，低估值+低持仓，攻守兼备。1）我们认 为市场储蓄需求依然旺盛，同时在监管持续引导和险企主动性转型下， 负债成本有望逐步下降，利差损压力将有所缓解。2）近期十年期国债 收益率稳定在 1.66%左右，我们预计，未来伴随国内经济复苏，长端利 率若继续修复上行，则保险公司新增固收类投资收益率压力将有所缓 解。3）当前公募基金对保险股持仓仍处于低位，估值对负面因素反应 较为充分。2025 年 4 月 25 日保险板块估值 2025E 0.50-0.81 倍 PEV、 0.89-1.96 倍 PB，处于历史低位，行业维持"增持"评级。 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；股市持续低迷；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 04 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@ ...

她指出，如果通胀最终确实下降，"我们确实需要逐步降低利率，就像我们在SEP中所说的那样，以确保不会对经济造成过 度紧缩"。 【导读】美联储戴利表示：利率将维持不变，但今年仍可能降息。 大家周末好，简单看一则关于美联储的消息。 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，由于通胀风险上升，美联储可能需要比预期更长时间维持利率不变，但今年仍可 能降息。 戴利在加州大学伯克利分校的一次活动中表示："与一年前相比，通胀的风险更高了，因此我们可能需要比原先设想的更长 时间维持紧缩政策。但这并不意味着要永远紧缩，因为最终通胀正在回落。" 戴利表示，她仍然认可美联储3月《经济预测摘要》（SEP）中的中位预期，即今年将降息两次、每次25个基点。 不过，戴利也强调，目前没有必要急于采取行动。 她说："到目前为止，我们还没有听到太多关于裁员的消息，也没有太多企业说要缩减规模、准备过冬。" 美联储的"观望"立场惹怒了特朗普，一位顾问周五表示，政府正在研究解除鲍威尔职务的可行性。 戴利指出，如果通胀下降速度快于预期，或者劳动力市场出现疲软，美联储今年降息次数可能会超过两次。 她表示，在通胀仅缓慢回落的情况下，需要继续维持紧缩的货币政策立场 ...