Market Overview - The market is experiencing downward pressure due to renewed tensions between the US and China, with China targeting US subsidiaries, leading to concerns about escalation risks [1][2] - Despite solid earnings reports from banks and companies like Domino's Pizza and AMD, the market is starting the day heavy [5][9] Bank Earnings - Major banks such as JP Morgan reported strong earnings, with JP Morgan's trading revenue reaching nearly $9 billion, indicating solid performance across the sector [7][10] - However, the overall market reaction has been mixed, with some banks like Goldman Sachs seeing declines, while Wells Fargo performed better [9][10] - Citigroup reported record third-quarter revenues across all business segments, showcasing strong growth despite high expectations [10] Economic Indicators - The 10-year yield is approaching 4.03%, which may influence lower inflation and make stocks more attractive [5][14] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations of weaker labor market data influencing this decision [14][15] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are affecting market sentiment, with the potential for a meeting between Xi Jinping and President Trump being uncertain [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions are consistently weighing on market performance, highlighting the importance of monitoring these developments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on October 29, which could lead to significant market volatility depending on the Fed's decisions and communications [5][6][7]. Market Expectations - Investors anticipate a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, with only a 5.4% chance of no cut at all, indicating a strong consensus on the expected outcome [6]. Potential Market Movers - The following factors could influence market movements post-Fed meeting: - **Rate Decision**: Any deviation from the expected 25 basis point cut could surprise investors and impact the market negatively [8]. - **Economic Projections**: The Fed's economic projections will not be released in October, which may limit market reactions based on economic outlook [8]. - **Statement Release**: The language used in the FOMC statement can significantly affect market sentiment, as even minor wording changes are closely analyzed [8]. - **Press Conference**: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference following the meeting can also sway market reactions, regardless of the anticipated rate decision [8].

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on October 10, with an opening price of $4014.43 per ounce, a high of $4022.87, a low of $3944.70, and a closing price of $3997.96 [1] Economic and Political News - Trump announced that federal government layoffs have begun, primarily affecting Democratic employees, with approximately 4200 workers from various departments including the Treasury, Education, Health and Human Services, Commerce, and Homeland Security [2] - Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene expressed skepticism about the government "shutdown" benefiting Republicans in the midterm elections, highlighting the ongoing inflation crisis and its impact on Americans' livelihoods [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September CPI report on October 24 at 8:30 AM [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Afghanistan's Defense Ministry stated that it has conducted retaliatory actions against Pakistan due to repeated airspace violations, resulting in the deaths of 12 Pakistani soldiers [2] - Trump mentioned the potential provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the conflict remains unresolved, and commented on the ongoing war between Pakistan and Afghanistan [3] Negotiations and Agreements - Hamas political bureau member Hossam Badran indicated that the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza involves complex factors and may take longer, emphasizing the need for Palestinian unity before progress can be made [4] - The second phase of negotiations includes discussions on disarmament of Hamas and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with significant challenges anticipated [4] Gold Market Insights - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 3.72 tons, bringing the total to 1017.16 tons [4] - According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 2.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 97.8% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a low of $3958 and a high of $4022, closing at $4012, indicating a bullish trend [6] - Short-term indicators suggest a strong demand for adjustments in gold prices, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [6]

2025 10/4 1 国际宏观 市场回顾 美联储10月降息25个基点概率为97.8% 现货黄金升破4060美元/盎司 周一早盘美股股指期货全面反弹 加密货币市场回暖 机 构 观点 新 3 社 主管主办 上海診券系 (2)中国证券网 【国际宏观】 10月13日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2.2%，降息25个基点的概率为97.8%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为0%，累计降 息25个基点的概率为2.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为96.7%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普表示，若俄乌冲突无法解决，他可能会向乌克兰提供"战斧"导弹。 高盛:特朗普若表态愿意讨论健康议题, 民主党很可能会接受并同意至少短期重新 开放政府 -周前瞻 IMF和世界银行秋季年会将于北京时间 10月13日至18日召开 美股第三季度财报季将在本周拉开大幕 【市场回顾】 周一早盘，黄金继续上涨。伦敦现货黄金开盘后快速拉升，最高逼近4060.05美元/盎司，再创新高；COMEX黄金期货开盘后一路走高，一度上冲至4078.1 美元/盎司，离历史高点仅一步之遥。上周五，伦敦现货黄金收于4017美元/盎司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be lacking critical economic data due to the recent government shutdown, which raises concerns about its decision-making capabilities regarding interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Fed's Awareness - The Fed has been criticized for being unaware of key economic indicators, such as the lack of real tariff inflation and the job creation figures under President Trump, which reportedly added 1.9 million jobs for native-born workers [2][3]. - The third quarter GDP is projected to be 4%, while the second quarter GDP was revised upwards to 3.8%, indicating a stronger economic performance than previously thought [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Debate - There is a division among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for more cuts while others caution against the risks involved [4]. - Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Steven Myron agree that current interest rates are too high and need to be lowered to support economic growth, contrasting with other board members who are more cautious [5][6]. Group 3: Impact of High Interest Rates - High interest rates are seen as detrimental to the economy, particularly affecting the housing market by limiting builders' access to loans, which in turn restricts new housing supply and contributes to inflation [8]. - Lowering interest rates is argued to potentially increase housing supply, lower home prices, and ultimately reduce inflation, benefiting the broader economy [8].

Market Overview - In the primary market, a total of 7 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities from October 6 to October 10, including 5 USD bonds and 2 HKD bonds, with issuance sizes of USD 1.7 million and HKD 500 million respectively. All bonds were issued via direct issuance [1] - The largest single issuance in the USD corporate bond market this week was USD 0.5 million by the International Finance Corporation, with the highest coupon rate at 4.5% also from the same issuer [1] Secondary Market Insights - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week. As of October 10, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rose by 0.22% to 250.46, while the investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.25% to 242.9. The high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.05% to 245.55. The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.14% to 187.22, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.08% to 152.35, and the financial USD bond index increased by 0.12% to 290.03 [2] Benchmark Spread - As of October 10, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US narrowed to 228.02 basis points, a decrease of 8.47 basis points from the previous week [3] Domestic News - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was launched for trial operation on October 9, as per the People's Bank of China [5] - The Central Securities Depository and Clearing Company, in collaboration with the Interbank Lending Center, launched a centralized bond lending business, with 78 institutions participating in the first batch [6] - The Hong Kong government plans to issue HKD 16.75 billion and RMB 11 billion in bonds over the next six months, with a tentative schedule for six bidding sessions [7] Overseas News - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for further interest rate cuts but emphasized the need for caution due to mixed economic signals, suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut in each of the remaining two meetings this year [9] Offshore Debt Alerts - Fantasia Holdings announced that the hearing for its offshore debt restructuring plan is scheduled for January 16, 2026 [10] - Poly Developments announced that 4.512 billion shares will be transferred without compensation to Poly Group, making it the controlling shareholder [11] - Aoyuan Meigu's first temporary creditors' meeting is set to be held on October 25, 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, with the final selection expected to be nominated by President Trump as early as January 2026 [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - **Michelle Bowman**: Current Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, familiar with regulatory affairs [2]. - **Christopher Waller**: Current Fed Governor, known for hawkish monetary policy views and strong academic background [2]. - **Kevin Hassett**: Director of the National Economic Council, former White House economic advisor with a Republican background [2]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Former Fed Governor (2006-2011), criticized quantitative easing, previously an executive at Morgan Stanley [2]. - **Rick Rieder**: Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock, a Wall Street veteran with significant market influence but no prior Fed experience [2]. Selection Process - Secretary Becerra will lead a new round of interviews for the five candidates, with the process expected to conclude after Thanksgiving due to upcoming international engagements [3]. - A streamlined recommendation list will be submitted to President Trump after the interviews, with the final decision resting with him [3]. Candidate Standards - Becerra prefers candidates with experience in economics, monetary policy, banking regulation, and management, who are open to new ideas regarding Fed operations and monetary policy [4]. - No candidate currently stands out as a clear favorite, but Rieder has made a strong impression due to his extensive experience in fixed income markets [4]. Candidate Views on Monetary Policy - **Michelle Bowman**: Advocates for a proactive monetary policy approach, suggesting that the Fed should act decisively in response to economic conditions, with a preference for a gradual adjustment of interest rates [5][6]. - **Christopher Waller**: Supports interest rate cuts but emphasizes caution in policy actions due to mixed economic signals [8][9]. - **Kevin Hassett**: Stresses the importance of Fed independence from political influence while supporting a comprehensive review of the Fed's mission and policies [10][11]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Calls for a complete overhaul of the Fed to restore its credibility, criticizing current leadership for failing to maintain appropriate interest rates [13][14]. - **Rick Rieder**: Believes there is room for about 100 basis points of rate cuts and questions the diminishing impact of tariffs on inflation [17][18].

Group 1 - French Prime Minister Le Maire reports to President Macron that there is still a possibility for compromise in parliament, but warns that the future will be challenging [2] - At least 210 members of parliament are seeking to establish a "stability platform" to guide next year's budget, requiring support from opposition members [2] - The largest opposition groups, the far-right (RN) and far-left (LFI), are pushing for new legislative elections, holding a total of 198 seats [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year bonds, with the auction yield lower than the previous auction, indicating a challenging environment for upcoming bond sales [3] - The FOMC minutes revealed divisions among members regarding interest rate decisions, with a consensus supporting a 25 basis point cut [3] - The market has largely priced in the likelihood of rate cuts in October and December [3] Group 3 - The National Bank of Poland unexpectedly cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, citing stable inflation rates and a gradual slowdown in wage growth [4] - The central bank noted that core inflation is expected to remain close to previous levels, with service price increases still rising [4] - Market reactions were muted, indicating that the rate cut is viewed as a timing issue rather than a significant shift in rate expectations [4] Group 4 - China announced plans to strengthen controls over the export of rare earth elements and related technologies, requiring foreign companies to obtain approval for exports [5] - The measures aim to protect national security and prevent misuse of rare earth materials in military and sensitive areas [5] - Technologies related to rare earth mining and recycling will also require government permission for export [5]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（10月9日）高位回落震荡收跌，开盘价4045.68美元/盎司，最高价4059.16美元/盎司，最低价 4001.26美元/盎司，收盘价4014.58美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储理事巴尔周四表示，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎，他明显偏向通胀风险，尽管他也承认"基本 平衡"的劳动力市场存在潜在脆弱性。"联邦公开市场委员会在调整政策时应保持谨慎，以便我们能够收集更多 数据、更新我们的预测，并更好地评估风险平衡，"巴尔在明尼苏达经济俱乐部的讲话中表示。这是他自6月以 来首次就货币政策发表公开评论。尽管巴尔支持美联储上月降息25个基点的决定，但他在讲话中着重强调了关 税对通胀的影响，暗示他并不认为有必要像金融市场目前预期的那样进行一系列降息。他还表示："考虑到供 需冲击、金融市场和金融状况的变化、劳动力市场的表现以及通胀的情况……我认为当前利率仅具有温和限制 性。" 据纽约时报报道，一位美国政府消息人士表示，尽管联邦政府已停摆，美国劳工统计局仍在准备发布9月份的 CPI数据，但具体发布时间尚不明确，但几乎可以肯定不是原定的10月15日。该统计机构在资金中断期间已停 止所有运作，因此未能按 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is facing a stalemate regarding the budget, with a Republican proposal to end the government shutdown failing to pass in the Senate [1] - President Trump plans to cut certain federal programs favored by Democrats due to the ongoing deadlock in Congress [1] - The U.S. Treasury has entered into a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, purchasing Argentine pesos directly [1] Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential labor market slowdowns, while maintaining that the U.S. economy is not in recession [2] - Fed Governor Barr emphasizes caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting inflation risks despite acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market [2] - The European Central Bank's September meeting minutes indicate that current inflation levels align with medium-term targets, suggesting no need for rate adjustments to influence market supply and demand [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.52% to 46,358.42 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,735.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.08% to 23,024.63 points [3] - COMEX gold futures declined by 1.95% to $3,991.10 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures decreased by 1.65% to $61.52 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.54% to $65.23 per barrel [5] Bond and Currency Markets - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.83 basis points to 3.588%, with similar increases across other maturities [5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.55% to 99.40, while the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all depreciated against the dollar [5]