Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.00%, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.18% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.10%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, France's CAC40 down 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.08% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.07% at $61.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up 0.12% at $65.15 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Reports - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to release earnings reports this week, with Apple following shortly after [5] - The earnings season will test the resilience of large-cap tech stocks as investors shift focus to cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks, and international markets [5] - In the semiconductor industry, South Korean giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will also report earnings this week, with analysts becoming increasingly positive on the fundamentals and stock outlook for core companies in the storage chip sector [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to maintain its independence, with no signs of compromise as it prepares for a key meeting this week [6] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to avoid initiating an accelerated easing cycle, with focus on how Chairman Powell will address future policy paths and political pressures [6] - Morgan Stanley anticipates minor adjustments in the Fed's policy statement, including an upgrade in economic growth description from "moderate" to "robust" [7] Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $5,100 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and currency depreciation [8] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening US dollar and investor behavior shifting away from sovereign bonds [8] Corporate News - The Trump administration plans to invest $1.6 billion in USA Rare Earth for a 10% stake, marking the largest single investment by the US government in the rare earth sector [10] - Merck has halted negotiations to acquire Revolution Medicines due to price disagreements, which could have valued the deal at around $30 billion [11] - Citigroup is expected to announce further layoffs in March, potentially affecting MD and senior-level employees, following a recent round of layoffs [12] Acquisition Activity - IonQ has agreed to acquire SkyWater Technology for approximately $1.8 billion, aligning with efforts to bolster US semiconductor manufacturing [13]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, with February gold futures surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver prices exceeding $100 per ounce, indicating strong demand for precious metals amid global uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 25, February gold futures traded above $5000 per ounce for the first time in history [1]. - Silver prices also broke the $100 per ounce mark during trading on January 23 [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The current geopolitical instability, pressure from the U.S. midterm elections, and concerns regarding the future independence of the Federal Reserve suggest that precious metals may remain strong for an extended period [3]. - However, there is a cautionary note regarding potential volatility near the $5000 psychological level for gold, advising against chasing prices and warning of possible high-level pullbacks [3].

这种支持是否让美联储有底气强硬抵制"加速降息"的压力，将成为本周的核心考验。 美联储主席鲍威尔即将卸任，本月他因美联储大楼翻新事宜面临刑事诉讼威胁，此举显然激怒了他。鲍威尔就美联储独立性问题的表态愈发 尖锐，称特朗普政府对他的攻击只是逼迫美联储大幅降息的"借口"。 本周的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议几乎肯定不会开启加速宽松周期。但鲍威尔如何规划未来的政策路径、如何回应政治压力相关问 题，或许是此次会议的核心看点——尤其是在美国总统特朗普极有可能在这场为期两天的会议期间，宣布接替鲍威尔的人选的情况下。 北京时间周四将迎来今年首次美联储政策决议，市场几乎不认为该央行会在2026年初如此快地再次下调借贷成本。 去年年底美联储已连续三次追加降息，市场普遍预期此次会议将再度暂停降息。强劲的经济增长、仍高于目标的通胀水平、稳定的失业率、 活跃的金融市场以及整体宽松的金融环境，均凸显了维持利率稳定的合理性。 今年以来，关于美联储独立性的博弈已升级多个层级，但这家全球最重要的央行几乎没有妥协的迹象——如今它还获得了最高法院与资深政 客的支持。 强劲的GDP增长以及对劳动力市场崩溃的担忧缓解，仍是核心影响因素——尽管特朗 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].

Group 1 - The report suggests a strategic bullish outlook with tactical flexibility, emphasizing the importance of performance fundamentals in investment decisions [4][7][13] - It identifies a favorable investment window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026, while cautioning against rapid upward trends in indices [4][7] - Key sectors to watch include commercial aerospace, satellite industries, AI applications, and sectors driven by price increases such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4][13] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected at 5.0% for 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and a potential GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026 [7][10] - The real estate market is still in a deep adjustment phase, with new housing sales expected to decline by 8.7% in 2025, indicating a need for careful observation of stabilization points [8][9] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "only increase, not decrease" approach, with significant spending in key areas to support economic growth [10] Group 3 - The public fund industry is anticipated to solidify its high-quality development framework, with new guidelines enhancing the accountability of performance benchmarks for funds [11] - Precious metals are expected to retain investment value due to increasing global instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, with gold prices nearing $5,000 per ounce [12][13] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry-specific data, such as cement price indices and industrial production growth rates, to gauge market trends [19][20]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加美联储降息预期强化 。 地缘冲突引爆避险需求 1月3日爆发的 委内瑞拉事件 。 美国对委内瑞拉发动军事行动 ， 抓捕 该国 总统马杜罗，引发全球对美洲政局动荡的担忧。作为全球重要产油国，委内瑞 拉石油出口 大幅下降 ， 日出口量从 95万桶骤降至50万桶，加剧能源供应风险，资金涌入黄金 、 白银避险。 1月中旬格陵兰岛争端升级 。 美国宣称将武力夺取格陵兰岛并威胁对欧洲八国（丹麦、法德等）加征关税 ， 具体从 2月1日起征10% 关税 ， 6月升至 25%，欧盟拟 反制措施 。美欧贸易战与主权冲突叠加，导致全球风险资产 大幅震荡 ，贵金属成为避风港。 尽管特朗普随后发表了关于格陵兰岛的缓和 言论，但这根本没法打消市场的担忧。 中东与亚太局势紧张 。 美军持续增兵中东，伊朗核设施遇袭风险升温；日本解散议会引发债市动荡，韩国面临美国芯片关税威胁， 这些事件 进一步推升 避险情绪。 黄金白银价格 近期 持续大涨的 主要 原因 在于， 地缘政治风险激增叠加 美联储降息预期强化 。去美元化浪潮持续，现有的货币体系正在崩塌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that while the intensity of external economic shocks may decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, five major risks still require close attention. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have evolved from tail risks to core macro variables since 2025, and are expected to remain high in 2026. The U.S. under Trump's second term is a significant risk point, with potential aggressive policies and a likely Democratic majority in the House of Representatives [2][22]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to "aid fatigue" in Europe, complicating policy coordination amid internal political shifts [2][26]. Group 2: Tariff Disturbances - Although there is potential for tariff risks to ease in 2026, the disturbances to international trade remain significant. Current tariffs may suppress trade growth, with WTO predicting a mere 0.5% growth rate for global merchandise trade in 2026 [3][39]. - If the Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, U.S. tariff rates could drop from 16.8% to 9.3%, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures [3][36]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates raises concerns about the central bank's independence. The upcoming change in Fed leadership is a focal point, with candidates like Kevin Hassett potentially undermining this independence [4][58]. - A decline in Fed independence could increase stagflation risks and negatively impact U.S. dollar assets, while benefiting short-term U.S. Treasuries and gold [4][62]. Group 4: Technology Stock Bubble - The AI-driven surge in U.S. tech stocks has led to high valuations, with the S&P 500 PE ratio at 25.6X and the Nasdaq at 34.4X as of early January 2026. The top ten stocks account for 32.8% of the market [5][65]. - Despite concerns over financial sustainability and profitability in the AI sector, the risk of a bubble bursting is considered low, given the current economic conditions and Fed's likely continuation of a rate-cutting cycle [5][63]. Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - High long-term interest rates in developed economies are expected to persist, putting pressure on stock markets. The global fiscal deficit rates are likely to remain elevated, with the U.S. "Great Beautiful Act" exacerbating debt pressures [6][28]. - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market may continue, with interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer goods facing challenges, while the AI industry remains relatively insulated [6][28].

股权研究 宏观经济 2026年1月23日 +44 20 7868 4489 理查德·德·沙扎尔, CFA rdechazal@williamblair.com +1 312 364 8867 劳里·马卡马 经济学周报 lmukama@williamblair.com 请参阅第 14 页和第 15 页的重要披露。分析师认证在第 14 页上。 91022_ac04293e-5a9a-437c-99e4-808075da6f73.pdf 关于凯文有些 事 威廉 布莱尔 财长斯科特·贝森，正在负责寻找下一任美联储主席，本周表示 ，在达沃斯之后，总统将在下周宣布他对该职位的提名。直到 上周，这一选择被广泛认为将是凯文·哈塞特。然而，在总统的 评论之后，市场现在认为哈塞特的机会已经被打击，而投注者 则显著提高了凯文·沃什被任命为主席的机会。 在此 经济学周 刊 并且，在下周可能宣布的事情之前，我们讨论了这个角色 的主要候选人。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰在理事会的短期任职（始于9月16日， 以填补已离任的阿德里安娜·库格勒的空缺）将于1月31日结束 。因此，总统为下一任美联储主席的人选可能会从2月开始占 据米兰在委员会的席位 ...

【美元全球外汇储备占比跌破60%】2025年，国际金价年内涨幅超64%，创下自1979年以来年度最大涨 幅。今年的世界经济论坛年会，央行增持黄金、去美元化、美联储独立性等自然成为多个分论坛的核心 议题。如桥水基金创始人达利欧所说，相比美债等美元资产，黄金正在成为全球央行更看重的储备资 产，而央行购金热潮，正在重塑全球黄金市场的需求结构。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据显示，美 元在全球外汇储备中的占比已经跌破了60%，创下数十年来的新低。世界黄金协会的调查显示，高达 95%的央行预计未来将继续买金。这被市场解读为用"无主权信用风险"的实物资产，对冲对美元信用的 深层焦虑。（央视财经） ...

天不怕地不怕的美国总统，这回栽了！治他的不是别人，竟是自己人！ 更让他扎心的还在后头——"后院起火"了。 特朗普这回是彻底坐不住了！天天催降息鲍威尔都不买账，他急了，直接启动刑事调查，这分明是想拿 鲍威尔开刀杀鸡儆猴。结果如何？全球十多个国家的央行行长联合发表声明，力挺鲍威尔。而其所在共 和党的议员更为激进，直言不讳地表示：若不撤销调查，便将否决其所有提名！ "可别被这表面的热闹骗了，这场博弈背后的猫腻多着呢，水太深，深到让人看不透。"表面看来，特朗 普紧盯美联储总部马里纳·埃克尔斯大楼翻新工程。他抨击预算从原计划猛增至近25亿美元，超支达7亿 美元，还就私人电梯、大理石喷泉等奢华细节大肆渲染。"这不过是掩人耳目罢了，明眼人一看便知： 醉翁之意不在酒，项庄舞剑，意在沛公。" 他真正的算盘，是想借此高压逼迫鲍威尔松口降息，好让政府背负的巨额债务少还点利息，顺便给自己 的经济成绩单镀镀金。 说白了，刑事调查就是他手里的一把刀，唯一的目的就是吓唬美联储，让他们变得"听话"。 "结果倒好，本想算计别人，没成想把自己给搭进去了，这真是'赔了夫人又折兵'，偷鸡不成蚀把米 啊！ "1月13日，欧洲央行、英格兰银行、加拿大银 ...