新华社北京12月3日电 题：护航经济运行 激发发展潜能——更加积极有为的宏观政策发力显效 新华社记者申铖、吴雨 有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，是护航中国经济行稳致远的重要手段。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，面对复杂形势，我国宏观经济治理不断创新完 善，宏观政策更加积极有为，政策"工具箱"更加丰富给力。 一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出，一笔笔资金加速落地、惠企利民……政策效能不断转化为澎湃发展动 能，有力巩固和增强中国经济稳中向好态势，为高质量完成全年经济社会发展目标任务提供坚实支撑。 用好用足财政货币政策 保障经济平稳健康发展 从手机、平板等消费品纳入"国补"，到育儿补贴发放、免费学前教育逐步推行，再到长江沿线铁路、西 部陆海新通道建设推进……今年以来，一系列发展大事和民生实事都离不开宏观政策的支持。 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，是在重要节点及时准确研判形势作出的工作部署，是深刻把握高质量发 展要求对复杂形势的主动应对。 10月中旬，1.3万亿元超长期特别国债发行圆满收官。截至目前，相关资金已基本下达。 "今年我国安排1.3万亿元超长期特别国债加力支持'两重''两新'，是财政政策更加积极 ...

广义货币(M_2)和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平、信贷结构持续优化、贷款利率保持在低位水 平……今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，有力支撑经济回升向好。下一步，货币政策将继续发 力，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济的较强支持力度。 金融支持质效提升 "十五五"规划建议提出，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。今年以来，适度宽 松的货币政策发力显效。金融总量较快增长，10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长 8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。与此同时，货币供应 量保持较快增长，10月末，M_2余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%。10月末，人民币贷款余额270.61万 亿元，同比增长6.5%。 "金融总量合理增长为实体经济提供了有力支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。在适度宽松的货 币政策带动下，社会综合融资成本持续下降，为经营主体纾困解难、注入信心。最新数据显示，10月份 企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款(本外 币)加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约 ...

十一月二十六日拍摄的马士基位于中国（上海）自由贸易试验区临港新片区洋山特殊综合保税区的综合 物流旗舰仓的仓储区内景。 （新华社发） □ 新华社记者 申铖 吴雨 有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，是护航中国经济行稳致远的重要手段。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，面对复杂形势，我国宏观经济治理不断创新完 善，宏观政策更加积极有为，政策"工具箱"更加丰富给力。 "今年我国安排1.3万亿元超长期特别国债加力支持'两重''两新'，是财政政策更加积极的一大体现，成 为全方位扩大内需的重要抓手。"中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣说。 今年以来，财政政策持续用力、更加给力，在存量政策效应持续释放的同时，加入新的增量政策。 赤字率按4%左右安排，比上年提高1个百分点；前10个月全国一般公共预算支出超22.5万亿元；各级财 政加快债券资金使用，前10个月地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债等资 金共支出4.54万亿元……财政打出政策"组合拳"，成为加强宏观调控的重要发力点。 一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出，一笔笔资金加速落地、惠企利民……政策效能不断转化为澎湃发展动 能，有力巩固 ...

新华社北京12月3日电 题：护航经济运行 激发发展潜能——更加积极有为的宏观政策发力显效 新华社记者申铖、吴雨 有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，是护航中国经济行稳致远的重要手段。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，面对复杂形势，我国宏观经济治理不断创 新完善，宏观政策更加积极有为，政策"工具箱"更加丰富给力。 一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出，一笔笔资金加速落地、惠企利民……政策效能不断转化为澎湃发 展动能，有力巩固和增强中国经济稳中向好态势，为高质量完成全年经济社会发展目标任务提供坚实支 撑。 用好用足财政货币政策 保障经济平稳健康发展 从手机、平板等消费品纳入"国补"，到育儿补贴发放、免费学前教育逐步推行，再到长江沿线铁 路、西部陆海新通道建设推进……今年以来，一系列发展大事和民生实事都离不开宏观政策的支持。 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，是在重要节点及时准确研判形势作出的工作部署，是深刻把握高质 量发展要求对复杂形势的主动应对。 "中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，把积极因素和有利条件用足用到位，需要宏观 政策更加积极有为。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 作为宏观调控的两 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts a 4% economic growth for the US by 2026, which has garnered significant market attention [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Bessent emphasizes that 2026 will see substantial tax refunds and a combination of "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [1] - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% [1] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.7% due to enhanced tariff effects, contrasting sharply with Bessent's 4% prediction [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates only twice before then [1] - The Federal Reserve is tasked with balancing inflation pressures from tariffs against a weakening labor market, which will influence future economic trends [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair, to be appointed by Bessent, will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy that aligns with fiscal policy to achieve growth expectations [2] Group 3: Technological Impact on Growth - Investment related to artificial intelligence is driving industrial production growth in the US and many Asian economies, injecting new momentum into economic development [2]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, the fiscal financing scale reached a historical high, with net government financing amounting to CNY 14.36 trillion, accounting for an estimated 10.2% of GDP[1] - The general public budget deficit reached CNY 56,600 billion, an increase of CNY 16,000 billion from 2024, marking a deficit ratio of 4% for the first time[12] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity compared to previous years[15] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintained a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, with the R007 average rate around 1.50%, reflecting a low interest rate environment[25] - The frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 were more cautious than in 2024, with only one reduction of 10 basis points for the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[28] - Social financing growth showed a "front high and back stable" trend, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in July 2025, before gradually declining to 8.5% by October[30] Policy Coordination - The central bank's adjustment of government bond trading operations in 2025 demonstrated a flexible response to market changes, enhancing the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks were aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios, with CNY 5,000 billion allocated for this purpose in 2025[43] - The government emphasized the need for fiscal policy to support economic growth and structural transformation, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for 2026[3]

宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in interest rates, influenced by weak PMI data and a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion from the central bank, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [1] - Key upcoming events in December, including the Politburo and economic work meetings, are expected to set the tone for economic policies in 2026, with a high probability of maintaining a growth target of around 5% [1] - The central bank's actions to counter year-end liquidity fluctuations will be crucial, as historical trends suggest large-scale liquidity injections in December or early January to address year-end funding needs [2] Group 2 - Regulatory policies regarding fund management are under scrutiny, with potential adjustments in fee structures that could impact the public fund industry and lead to preventive redemptions by clients [3] - Despite uncertainties in the bond market, assets with safe-haven characteristics are likely to benefit in a context of global economic downturn and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The bond market is currently facing upward pressure on interest rates, with short-term rates remaining stable and long-term rates showing slight increases, indicating a search for support at the upper end of the trading range [5]

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]