中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议 分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 "整体来看，中央政治局会议对当前经济形势给予积极评价。我国经济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表 现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展取得新成效。同时，会议指出经济运行依然面临不少风险挑 战。当前外部环境复杂严峻，国内仍存在结构性矛盾，要增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，把握好巩固回 升态势与推进结构调整之间的平衡。"中信证券首席经济学家明明分析认为。 会议重申稳中求进的工作总基调，提出下半年宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 在业内专家看来，"持续发力"是要抓好现有政策的落实。财政政策方面包括加快政府债券发行使用，提 高资金使用效率，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 数据显示，今年上半年新增专项债发行超2.1万亿元，比去年同期多发超6670亿元，发行进度达49%， 较去年同期显著加快，带动宽口径基建投资同比增长8.9%。今年以来，财政支出进一步向"三保"领域倾 斜。根据财政预算报告，2025年民生领域支出占比为37.1%，较去年有所提升。 "对财政政策的表述从4月的'用好用足'变为'落实落细'。 ...

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程 是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前 经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议通稿中与宏观政策和房地产相关的主要内容如下： 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重 点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩 固拓展经济回升向好势头。 加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国 际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策 ...

智观年中经济形势 编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平 稳增长。面对外部环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投 资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展 望下半年政策走向。 核心观点：2025年下半年财政政策，需重点关注七个方面：重视经济发展动能变化、高度重视稳定物价水平、持续创新财政发力空间、 继续重视保民生类支出、加快政府债务处置工作、积极运用政策性金融工具、重视财政政策的社会效益。 ■杨灿明 赵颖 2025年是"十四五"规划收官和"十五五"规划布局的重要年份。国内经济面临外部环境复杂严峻和内部需求有待提升等因素影响，为经济 增长带来不确定性，经济回升态势向好基础有待巩固。2025年《政府工作报告》对财政政策的定位是"持续用力、更加给力"，较2024 年"适度加力、提质增效"的表述更加积极。2025年上半年，我国财政收入边际改善，但面临的压力需重视。财政支出增速低于预算目 标，重 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, including resolving local government debt risks, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promoting reforms [2]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, stressing the need to adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, boost consumption, and promote economic circulation [2]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao mentioned that under the guidance of the two heads of state, China and the US have formed relevant consensuses and frameworks in the economic and trade field, and the two teams held talks in Stockholm [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed a 5 - day trading ban on a client for exceeding the daily trading limit in the container shipping index (European line) futures contract on July 30 [3]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut, and Powell avoiding guidance on a September rate cut [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Glass, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and synthetic rubber [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals 27.23%, oilseeds 11.99%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.03%, energy 3.39%, chemicals 11.71%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.87% [4] 3. Sector Position - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.17 | 4.97 | 7.88 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 3.96 | 5.01 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.02 | 5.47 | 5.50 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.65 | 6.75 | 10.29 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.12 | 2.55 | 8.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.36 | 4.59 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | 0.19 | 1.47 | 21.86 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.05 | 0.41 | 1.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.01 | 4.29 | 11.79 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Futures | 0.15 | - 0.55 | - 0.57 | | | 5 - year Treasury Futures | 0.08 | - 0.50 | - 0.85 | | | 2 - year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | - 0.16 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.92 | 3.11 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.57 | 8.15 | - 2.25 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.53 | - 0.82 | 24.80 | | | LME Copper | - 0.69 | - 1.50 | 10.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.56 | 2.17 | 16.29 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 1.06 | 3.30 | - 7.85 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 4.48 | - 7.90 | [6]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 31 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘探底后上涨，午后延续上涨之后横向波 动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.40%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 | | | | | 0.15%，5 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.08%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 3090 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 1505 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，因此当日净投放 1585 亿元。 | | | | | 2、 ...

Economic Policy and Strategy - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus will be on promoting consumption to effectively release domestic demand potential, with an allocation of 138 billion yuan for the "old for new" consumption subsidy program [3] - Policies will be developed to support service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial policies to stimulate personal consumption loans [3] Market and Competition - The importance of improving supply quality through deepening reforms and stimulating market vitality is highlighted, particularly in the context of transitioning to new growth drivers [3] - The establishment of a unified national market is essential to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [3] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4] - The combination of short-term goals and long-term tasks, driven by policy tools and deepening reforms, is necessary to ensure the completion of annual economic and social development goals [4]

【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木 环球时报记者 杨舒宇】德国正在摆脱数十年的财政保守主义，同时也点燃争议。德国《商报》30日报道称，德 国内阁周三批准了2026年创纪录的预算草案以及至2029年的中期财政计划，涉及巨额的基础设施和国防项目的投资支出和借款。德媒称，执政不 到三个月，由德国总理默茨和副总理兼财政部长克林贝尔领导的联邦政府就陷入了危险的债务困境。"支出增加、债务增加、利息支付增加，成为 政府预算的戏剧性三重奏。" 创纪录的投资和借贷 据德媒报道，内阁周三通过了财政部长克林贝尔提交的一份包含创纪录投资规模的预算草案。其中包括1267亿欧元投资（比2025年高出10%，比 2024年高出70%）和1743亿欧元借款，作为其基础设施和国防财政计划的一部分。内阁批准后，该预算将被提交至德国联邦议院，预计将于11月 底获得通过。这份"大胆"的提案连日来成为该国国内讨论的焦点。 德媒称，这种预算政策"令人震惊"。虽然未来几年的财政规划中存在一定的缺口是正常的，但即使在政府内部，这样的缺口也被描述为"非常 高"，弥补这一缺口被描述为一项"中央财政政策挑战"。 据报道，增加支出是政府重振低迷经济计划的一部分。该国是 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 30, with a fixed rate and a total of 309 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan for the day [2][4]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's continuous net injection has led to a decline in the overnight repurchase weighted average rate (DR001) to nearly 1.31%, with a similar decrease observed in the 7-day term [4]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.36% [5]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [8]. Group 4: Bond Market Trends - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have seen a decline in yields [10]. - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a general decline, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.40%, the 10-year by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.08%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [14]. Group 5: Key Economic Meetings and Policies - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on economic development and policy adjustments [15]. - The meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and mitigate local government debt risks [15]. Group 6: Bond Market Events - In June, the national issuance of new bonds reached 628.1 billion yuan [19]. - The Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau facilitated the successful issuance of the first "Belt and Road" bond by Shudao Group [19]. - A restructuring plan for Times China’s overseas debt was approved by the Hong Kong court [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the continuation and enhancement of macro policies to support economic recovery [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to fully release the effects of these policies [2][3] - There is an expectation for the acceleration of the issuance and utilization of special government bonds and local government bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized maintaining reasonable liquidity and promoting a decline in the overall financing costs in society through structural monetary policy tools [4] - Experts predict that new incremental measures, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be introduced based on actual conditions in the second half of the year [4] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and effectiveness of previously implemented policies [4]