本报记者 刘琪 9月12日，中国人民银行发布8月份金融数据。数据显示，8月末，广义货币（M2）余额331.98万亿元，同比增长8.8%；人 民币贷款余额269.1万亿元，同比增长6.8%；社会融资规模存量为433.66万亿元，同比增长8.8%。 "8月末，社会融资规模和M2同比增速仍保持较高水平，与经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配并略高一些，体现了适 度宽松的货币政策取向。"有业内专家在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，下半年宏观政策将保持连续性和稳定性，适度宽 松的货币政策仍保持对实体经济较强的支持力度，财政政策也在积极发力，有助于推动经济进一步回升向好。 个人贷款增长有所提振 数据显示，前8个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元。从8月份来看，当月人民币贷款增加5900亿元。其中，住户贷款增加303 亿元，企（事）业单位贷款增加5900亿元。 据业内专家分析，财政政策发力增多、社融和贷款均保持合理增长，对M2增速起到一定支撑作用。此外，去年同期M2基 数较低，也为当前M2增速保持较高读数创造了条件。 此外，8月末，狭义货币供应量M1余额111.23万亿元，同比增长6%，比7月末加快0.4个百分点。M1增速上行 ...

Group 1 - Fiscal policy remains a key macroeconomic tool, balancing demand expansion and structural adjustment since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, indicated that there is still ample room for fiscal policy to act in the future, with a focus on risk prevention and development promotion [1][2] - The overall fiscal strength of the country is increasing, with public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 19% increase from the previous plan [2] Group 2 - The total public budget expenditure during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - Central government transfers to local governments are expected to approach 50 trillion yuan over five years, with annual transfers exceeding 10 trillion yuan in recent years [2] - The macroeconomic policies have effectively supported economic growth, with GDP reaching 66.05 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant growth in China's fiscal strength, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic regulation and promoting quality economic development through active fiscal policies [2][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - National general public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Total fiscal investment in people's livelihood during this period is nearly 100 trillion yuan, with significant allocations for education, social security, health, and housing [1] Fiscal Policy and Economic Strategy - The fiscal policy has maintained an active orientation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, benefiting people's livelihoods, and supporting technological innovation [2][3] - The deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 3.8%, with a further increase to 4% planned for this year [2] - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in government bonds has been issued, marking a historical high [2] Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - A comprehensive debt reduction initiative was launched, involving 12 trillion yuan in measures to address local government debt [5] - By mid-2025, over 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating a significant reduction in hidden debts [5] - The total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is considered manageable compared to G20 and G7 averages [6] Future Outlook - The government aims to establish a debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, ensuring sustainable debt practices [7] - Continued efforts will be made to enhance transparency in debt management and prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts [7]

中国财长：未来财政政策发力空间依然充足 中新社北京9月12日电 (记者 赵建华)中国财政部部长蓝佛安12日在北京强调，财政政策统筹考虑防风险 和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 当天在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上，蓝佛安介绍，中国财政收入"蛋糕"越来越大，支出强度前所 未有。"十四五"时期，全国一般公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元(人民币，下同)，比"十三五"时期增加 17万亿元。地方财政实力稳步壮大，从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。全国一般公共预算支出五年预计超过136万亿元，比"十三 五"时期增加26万亿元。 蓝佛安表示，财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。"十四五"以 来，财政政策始终保持积极取向，力度更加给力，工具更加丰富，发力更加精准，时机更加灵活。其中 包括： "十四五"以来，赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%，今年进一步提高到4%；安排新增地方政府专项债券额度 19.4万亿元；新增减税降费及退税缓税缓费超10万亿元，财政政策空间进一步打开。综合运用政府债 券、税收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize and promote economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of fiscal policies to economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has four key characteristics: increased strength, richer tools, more precise implementation, and greater flexibility in timing [3]. - The fiscal policy aims to be stable while maintaining targeted flexibility, adapting to changing external factors and economic conditions [3]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [2]. - Cross-cycle regulation is emphasized to find new growth drivers for medium to long-term development, moving beyond traditional short-term adjustments [2]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Effective fiscal macro-control requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, with recent measures such as the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special bonds to stimulate credit lending by approximately 6 trillion yuan [4]. - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, providing more room for fiscal policy [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Space - There is significant potential for fiscal policy to exert influence, supported by the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy and the advantages of a large market [5]. - The ability to utilize fiscal policy effectively is expected to improve, with a more sophisticated toolbox and enhanced macro-control capabilities [5][6].

Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, China's social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first eight months of 2025 was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, noted that the combination of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has supported the growth of social financing [1] - The scale of social financing that includes government bonds has become a leading indicator for the recovery of the Chinese economy [1] - Direct financing, primarily through government and corporate bonds, has been growing faster than credit financing, indicating a shift in the financing structure that aligns better with economic transformation [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the fourth quarter is crucial for achieving the annual and "14th Five-Year" economic targets, with expectations for new policies to be introduced [2] - Key sectors such as infrastructure and real estate are anticipated to receive more favorable policies, especially with the continued growth of government bond issuance [2] - Financial data is expected to improve, supported by factors like the "Golden September and Silver October" in real estate [2]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the characteristics of fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting its proactive and precise nature to support stable economic development [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Characteristics of Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more forceful, with the deficit ratio increasing from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year. Additionally, a new quota of 19.4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds has been arranged, along with over 1 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and deferrals [1] - The tools used in fiscal policy have become more diverse, employing government bonds, tax measures, fiscal subsidies, and special funds to enhance the synergy with other macro policies, thereby amplifying the policy multiplier effect [1] - The focus of fiscal policy has become more precise, addressing economic bottlenecks and challenges, such as a one-time arrangement of 6 trillion yuan in debt limit to replace hidden debts, significantly alleviating repayment pressure for local governments [1] Group 2: Flexibility and Future Outlook - The timing of policy implementation has become more flexible, with a focus on early execution and ensuring policies are effective as soon as possible [2] - There is a deepening understanding of the laws of fiscal macro-control, emphasizing the promotion of microeconomic circulation and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The future fiscal policy space remains ample, with a solid foundation for fiscal operations and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustment capabilities, ensuring readiness for future challenges [4]

9月12日，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"十四 五"时期财政改革发展成效。 关于下一步财政政策、扩内需、化解存量隐性债务、保障和改善民生等热点问题，财政部有关负责人一 一回应。 财政部副部长廖岷在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，过去几年，财政部积极开展国际财经合作，全力 服务元首外交，以务实的财金领域成果，有力拓展了我国高质量发展的国际新空间，在促进全球可持 续、包容发展方面，发挥着越来越重要的作用。 要 点速览 财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手 加强对形势的前瞻研判做好政策储备 谈及财政宏观调控，蓝佛安介绍，"十四五"以来，赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%，今年进一步提高到4%； 安排新增地方政府专项债券额度19.4万亿元；新增减税降费及退税缓税缓费超10万亿元，财政政策空间 进一步打开。 蓝佛安表示，财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。下 一步，财政部门将继续保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，加强对形势的前瞻研判，做好政策 储备，主动靠前发力，为经济社会高质量发展贡献财政力量。 创新运用财税政策工具， ...

Group 1 - The "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 continues to narrow, reaching 2.8% as of the end of August, the lowest since June 2021, indicating increased liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation [1][4]. - As of the end of August, the growth rates of social financing stock and M2 both remain high at 8.8%, reflecting strong financial support for the real economy [1][3]. - The increase in RMB loans for the first eight months of the year is 13.46 trillion yuan, with a loan growth rate of 6.8% as of the end of August [2][3]. Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has provided significant funding support for resolving hidden debts, with nearly 1.9 trillion yuan issued this year, which may have a short-term downward effect on credit growth [2][3]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a notable increase in loan demand, with new loans for manufacturing accounting for 53% of new corporate loans, a significant increase from the previous year [2][3]. - Personal consumption loans have also increased due to seasonal demand and consumption promotion policies, indicating a rise in consumer loan demand [2][3]. Group 3 - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in August is approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year, while the rate for new personal housing loans is also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [3][4]. - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has supported the growth of M2, with government bond issuance increasing significantly [3][6]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 "scissors difference" reflects improved liquidity and market confidence, with M1 growth at 6% as of the end of August [4][5]. Group 4 - Future monetary policy should focus on optimizing structure rather than just maintaining total growth, emphasizing the need for effective resource allocation and support for key sectors [6][7]. - There is a call for macro policies to address deeper issues and promote reforms in key areas, which can enhance long-term economic stability and short-term consumption [6][7]. - The macro policy framework is expected to remain consistent and stable, with a clear shift towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [7].

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]