Core Insights - The GUM MPF Composite Index rose by 0.3% in October, reaching 284.9 points, with an average gain of HKD 830 per person for the month and HKD 44,197 year-to-date [1][1][1] Market Performance - Market fluctuations in early October were triggered by the stalemate between the US and China over rare earths and tariffs, leading to a temporary decline in stock prices [1] - A shift in sentiment occurred after former President Trump adopted a more conciliatory tone on social media, alleviating market fears and allowing stock markets to stabilize [1] - The US and China have paused the escalation of their rare earth and tariff disputes, contributing to improved market conditions [1] Asset Allocation - The outlook for stock funds in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Japan remains optimistic, driven by a pragmatic approach in US-China trade negotiations aimed at finding solutions and reducing concerns over conflict escalation [1] - Expectations are that the Bank of Japan will maintain an accommodative monetary policy under the new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, alongside aggressive fiscal expansion, which is believed to support asset prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The short - term trend will be affected by the US soybean market, with uncertainties in China's soybean procurement volume and good US soybean harvest weather limiting the upward space. Domestically, the low - season demand and spot price discounts will suppress the upward movement [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The short - term trend will be influenced by China's US soybean procurement and US soybean harvest weather. The cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones will support the price bottom, while the high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the price increase [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's US soybean procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also fall from a high level. Affected by the relatively normal US soybean harvest weather and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will return to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price outlook. The soybean meal market will be affected by both the US soybean market and the off - season demand, returning to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations will keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on the US soybean yield and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market bottom, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the domestic soybean price outlook [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the soybean price outlook [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 27 to November 4, the soybean meal futures oscillated and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot discount slightly widening. The soybean futures prices also fluctuated during this period, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed certain changes [16][18]. - **Soybean and Meal - type Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 24 to November 4, the soybean (bean one and bean two) and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed, with some increases and decreases [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2015 to 2025/26 are presented, including different stages of sowing, growth, and harvesting [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in factors such as planting area, yield, output, and end - of - period inventory of soybeans [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November is expected to decline from a high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are marked by a mix of cooperation and tension, with U.S. Treasury Secretary's threats of tariffs on China highlighting the complexities of the relationship [3][4][18]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations Progress - Recent discussions in Kuala Lumpur have led to significant agreements, including the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of certain investigations into China's maritime and logistics sectors [4][5]. - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury expressed confidence that a trade agreement could be finalized soon, with China expected to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year [4][5]. - Despite these advancements, U.S. Trade Representative's comments indicate that core issues in U.S.-China relations remain unresolved, suggesting a dual approach of negotiation and pressure [4][5][18]. Group 2: Tariff Strategy - The U.S. is continuing to leverage tariffs as a tool against China, with Secretary of the Treasury indicating a desire to rally allies to impose similar tariffs [5][10]. - The U.S. has implemented various tariffs on imports, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and a 25% tariff on certain automotive products [11][12][13][16]. - This pattern of tariff imposition reflects a broader strategy of unilateralism and pressure to gain leverage in trade negotiations [16]. Group 3: Rare Earth Elements - The focus on China's rare earth export controls is significant, as these materials are crucial for advanced industries, including defense and technology [7][8]. - The U.S. is attempting to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths while simultaneously seeking to establish alliances for mining and refining these critical materials [10][9]. - The complexity of developing a domestic supply chain for rare earths is acknowledged, with estimates suggesting it could take 5 to 10 years to achieve significant production capabilities [10]. Group 4: Future of U.S.-China Relations - The ongoing trade tensions are characterized by a "talk and hit" strategy, where the U.S. seeks to maintain pressure while negotiating [16][19]. - The outcome of U.S.-China relations will depend on both parties' commitment to principles of equality, respect, and mutual benefit [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (White star) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star) [1] - Apple: Slightly bearish (One star) [1] - Timber: Neutral (White star) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish (Three stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Neutral (White star) [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [2] - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and weather conditions [3] - Apple prices are high with insufficient bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the storage situation [4] - The rubber market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is advisable to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - The short - term fundamentals of pulp are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve; it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] - Low inventory provides some support for log prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [8] Summary by Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. As of November 1, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading was mediocre, and the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly. The trading in the general cotton yarn market became dull. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong. There are expectations of syrup import control policies, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price dropped significantly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory volume to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory of apples in the new season is uncertain. The high price and poor quality of apples this year may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, while the synthetic rubber spot price continued to fall. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate declined significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase. Rubber inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly, and the spot prices remained stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.061 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp import volume in September increased year - on - year. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and mid - term conditions may improve. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The supply of logs is expected to remain low in the short term, and the demand provides some support for prices. The total log inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Although there are rumors of anti - involution in the polyester industry, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200 due to lack of information. Industry profits are still affected by over - capacity. In the context of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is still low, port arrivals are limited, and overseas imports are expected to decline. New capacity puts pressure on prices, and low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. Sino - US trade negotiations may increase export demand for textile and clothing [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, to 467.9 yuan/barrel on November 3, 2025, an increase of 9.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA futures price rose slightly, with the main contract rising from 4586 yuan/ton to 4596 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price rose from 4510 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 122.1 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 198.1 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main contract price of MEG decreased from 4018 yuan/ton to 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The domestic market price decreased from 4106 yuan/ton to 4068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 820 to 819, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 239 [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased by 100 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 30 yuan/ton. The cash flow of POY, FDY, and DTY all improved [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.21%, PTA start - up rate remained at 79.66%, MEG start - up rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load increased from 89.34% to 89.56%, an increase of 0.22% [2]. 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - For PTA, although the Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, the market's optimistic sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the low inventory situation and the impact of new capacity on prices should be concerned [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term investment ratings for different varieties include: short - term decline for palm oil and rapeseed oil; short - term adjustment for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil; and a cautious bearish view on jujubes, with a warning of a potential short - term rebound for live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. Brazilian rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. The current tariff situation has a slight adjustment, and the cost of domestic soybean meal has some support. The main contract is in a large - range market below the previous high. After a short - term rebound, it needs to be sorted out. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recently, it has rebounded following soybean meal. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors. Hold existing short positions with caution [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The harvest of US soybeans and the lack of progress in US biodiesel policy provide no positive support. Domestic soybean oil inventory is higher than the five - year average, and supply is sufficient in the short term. Follow palm oil's decline. Be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, market's reluctance to sell and price - holding mentality, and the consumption peak season are offset by the lack of positive drivers from the Sino - Canadian meeting. The market is falling due to risk aversion [1] - **Cotton**: Weak and volatile. New cotton from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries increases supply pressure. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support. Domestically, new cotton is about to be harvested, inventory has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. There is resistance to upward movement [1] - **Jujubes**: Cautiously bearish. Large - scale harvesting is coming, and the market is highly volatile due to capital. The future fundamentals are expected to be loose. Short - term, suggest reducing short positions as the premium is being repaired [1] - **Live Pigs**: Be wary of short - term rebounds. The supply pressure in December is expected to increase due to the delayed supply from second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. On the market, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and beware of the rebound risk of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [3] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 3,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,103.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [5] - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. In China, rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but the demand is in the off - season due to the end of the aquaculture season [5] Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory of palm oil was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from last week. The production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.55% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 5.19% [8] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The national average price was 8,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day [6] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, and precipitation in major cotton - growing areas will decrease in early November. In India, the MSP acquisition has been delayed due to heavy rainfall, and the daily new cotton listing volume is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the new cotton listing volume in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [9] - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the inspection volume exceeds 1.93 million tons, and the sales progress is 14.2%. The Xinjiang mainstream machine - picked seed cotton price has risen to 6.32 yuan/kg, and the cumulative average price of lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand has not changed much [10] Jujubes - **Production Area Situation**: Large - scale harvesting is expected. Merchants in Xinjiang are actively purchasing, and the final production reduction situation remains to be seen. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 9,348 tons, a month - on - month increase of 245 tons [14] - **Sales Area Situation**: Large - scale arrivals have not started yet. The price of sporadic goods is significantly higher than the same - grade goods in the same period last year. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and consumption has not started significantly [14] Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory in October was 38.3901 million, a 1.5% increase from the previous month; the monthly slaughter volume was 10.6976 million heads, a 4.29% decrease from the previous month. The national average price of live pigs was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day [16] - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises accelerated slaughter, and the planned slaughter volume in November decreased by 2.54% compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The demand of downstream slaughtering has increased, and the inventory situation has stabilized [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term with a long - term bullish view, and it is recommended to buy on dips; bonds are expected to oscillate [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are suitable for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is in a high - level shock, suggesting to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading; aluminum is recommended to go long on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; soda ash's 01 contract has a short - selling strategy [1][22][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; PTA is in a low - level shock; apples are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; red dates are expected to oscillate [1][39][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; eggs' price rebounds are under pressure; corn is in the process of bottom - building in a shock; soybean meal rebounds from a low level; oils are in a high - level adjustment with a pattern of weak palm oil and strong soybean oil [1][43][49]. Core Views The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets. After events such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of quarterly reports, and the conclusion of important meetings, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, resulting in a lack of catalysts for market direction. Each sector has different supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environmental impacts, leading to different price trends and investment strategies [5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stocks**: After important events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in the short - end bond pricing and institutional positions. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect bonds to oscillate [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising steadily. The supply of coal mines is reduced at the end of the month, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine production resumption on supply [8]. - **Rebar**: After the macro - events at the end of October, the black prices declined. The rebar price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8]. - **Glass**: The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to sell the out - of - the - money call options of the 01 contract and hold them until expiration. Consider the 05 contract after the new year [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, the copper price declined. Although there are long - term positive factors such as tight supply of copper concentrates and increasing demand, the short - term high price suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to be in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, the production capacity of alumina has decreased, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is in the transition from peak to off - peak season. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may lead to a more relaxed supply of nickel ore in the future. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is restricted by the downstream stainless steel market. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, but the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading and focus on the supply resumption and downstream demand [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut, there are still uncertainties in the market. Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk - aversion demand, they are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the US ADP employment data [20][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 4600 - 4800 [23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by the high inventory of alumina, the spot pressure is large. The supply is high in winter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract should focus on the pressure at 2400 [26]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply and demand are relatively weak, and it is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to focus on the price of oil, the production and import of pure benzene, etc. [27]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, the inventory of dark - colored rubber has increased, and the market sentiment is bearish. However, the reduction in rubber tapping due to rainfall limits the downward space. It is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term [29]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases due to increased maintenance, the agricultural demand increases, and the port inventory decreases. The price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 1600 - 1700 [30]. - **Methanol**: The supply is affected by the maintenance of devices, the cost increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 2230 - 2330 [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost has a certain support, the supply increases due to new production, and the demand is mainly based on rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate in the range, and PP is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and the price of crude oil [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [38]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. With the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the high price of seed cotton acquisition, it is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock [39]. - **PTA**: The price of crude oil is under pressure, the supply and demand of PTA are in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is in a low - level shock. It is necessary to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [39][40]. - **Apples**: The quality of apples has decreased this year, and the expected delivery cost has increased. It is expected that the price will be slightly stronger in a shock [40]. - **Red Dates**: The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the pig price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is large before the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [44]. - **Eggs**: The current inventory is large, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the future. The 12 - contract is at a premium to the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 3250 - 3400 [46]. - **Corn**: The new grain is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The price is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, the cost has support, and the demand is stable but weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2050 - 2170 [49]. - **Soybean Meal**: The expected increase in China's soybean purchases from the US has pushed up the price of US soybeans, and the cost has increased. Although the domestic supply is relatively abundant, the soybean meal price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take profit on the M2601 contract at high levels and continue to hold after a pullback [49]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations and production increase. Soybean oil is affected by the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected increase in soybean imports. Rapeseed oil is in a situation of tight supply in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to focus on the support levels of different varieties and the spread trading strategies [52][54][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. Influenced by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward space of the futures price, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140. Affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imported soybean arrivals and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will suppress the upward space of the price [11]. - The short - term soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern. Factors such as the initial agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, high domestic imported soybean arrivals in November, and the expected high yield of US soybeans will all affect the market, and it awaits further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases of US soybeans and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrivals of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, the soybean inventory of oil mills will fall from a high level in November, the US soybean harvest weather is relatively normal, and with the initial Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the weakening demand for soybean meal in November suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. Affected by the US soybean and the off - season demand for soybean meal, it returns to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The high - level inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement will make the soybean meal maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a high - yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Long Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - **Short Factors**: The high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the price expectation of beans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 2990 (East China), with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% and a year - on - year increase of 17.16% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 24, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710790 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.39% and a year - on - year increase of 29.06% [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, China's soybean harvest area, output, and import volume changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [11]. Other Information - The daily trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 24 to November 3, including the average trading price and trading volume, are provided, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [16]. - The futures and spot price data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 24 to November 3 are provided, and the soybean meal futures oscillated upward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot discount [18][23]. - The soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipt data from October 23 to November 3 are provided, and the soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity changed slightly [20]. - The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume fell from a high level [25][26]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level [28]. - The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which reflect the growth status of soybeans in different regions [33][34][38]. - The monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory [43]. - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the arrivals of imported soybeans in November decreased from a high level but increased year - on - year overall [44][46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell from a high level, and the procurement demand in the off - season decreased [47][49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the decline of US soybeans, and the futures profit fluctuated slightly [52]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - raising profit improved recently [54][56][60].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3937 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as electric grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment, banking, and gaming showed strong performance, while sectors like batteries, small metals, semiconductors, and jewelry underperformed [3][4][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.19 times and 49.81 times, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 21,332 billion, above the median of the past three years, suggesting active market participation [4][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 3, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3976.52 points, up 0.55%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06 points, up 0.19%, while the ChiNext 50 Index fell by 1.04% [7][8]. - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in shipbuilding, gaming, cultural media, coal, and photovoltaic equipment sectors. Conversely, small metals, batteries, jewelry, non-metallic materials, and precious metals saw declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The A-share market is at a critical transition point, with expectations of a sideways trading pattern in November as the market prepares for potential year-end rallies. The market is likely to see a rebalancing trend between growth and value styles, as well as between large-cap and small-cap stocks [4][14]. - It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio, seeking equilibrium between technology growth and dividend value, while being mindful of both offensive and defensive strategies. Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in electric grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment, gaming, and banking sectors [4][14].