Core Viewpoint - The meeting organized by the China Securities Association on June 27, 2025, focused on the economic outlook for the second half of 2025 and the impact of global supply chain trends on the capital market [1] Economic Outlook - Over 70% of chief economists surveyed expect an increase in the year-on-year growth rates of CPI, PPI, and fixed asset investment in the third quarter of 2025 [1] - Experts recommend enhancing national subsidy policies to stimulate consumption and promote a decrease in real interest rates [1] Supply Chain Trends - The global supply chain is exhibiting characteristics of "nearshoring," "localization," and "diversification" [1] - It is anticipated that China will develop a parallel system of high-end core industrial chains with Europe and the United States, alongside a cross-system of low-value-added basic industrial chains [1] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest strengthening policy coordination to guide more medium- and long-term funds into supply chain-related sectors, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing market confidence to support enterprise development [1]

Group 1 - The second batch of insurance fund long-term investment pilot projects has officially commenced, with Taikang Asset being the first institution to announce its investment [1] - Taikang Stable Growth Fund, established by Taikang Asset, has a total approved amount of 12 billion yuan for long-term investments, aimed at optimizing asset-liability matching and enhancing capital market stability [2][3] - The investment strategy focuses on three main areas: high-dividend assets, industrial upgrade dividends, and counter-cyclical investment, promoting a long-term value investment approach [3] Group 2 - The total amount for the second and third batches of pilot projects has reached 222 billion yuan, with multiple insurance companies actively participating [4] - The long-term investment pilot is expected to alleviate profit volatility for insurance companies and enhance equity investments, contributing to a stable interaction between insurance funds and capital markets [4]

银河研究 金融期货研发报告 金融期货年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 稳中有进 开启慢牛 ——股指期货 2025 年中策略报告 报告摘要： 2025 上半年市场两次经受住了考验，分别在政策预期、资金支撑下实现探底反弹，形 成快跌慢涨的慢牛走势，底部不断抬高。 一行一局一会两度联合新闻发布会，坚强有力的表态表明管理层稳定股市的信心和决 心，下半年政策环境持续稳定，股指也将表现稳定。 市场利率不断下行，理财资金不断转向高股息资产为股市营造良好的市场环境，推动中 长期资金入市的政策指向使保险资金股票投资不断提速，汇金等央企增持又使市场增添信 心，资金面整体稳中有增。 宏观经济数据和上市公司业绩同样保持平稳，进而使估值下有支撑，股指慢牛表现即有 基本面又有资金面的助力，预计下半年将继续震荡上行。 股指期货成交持仓略有增长，受多方因素影响贴水有所加大，为期指多头带来较好的投 资机会，在风险合理控制的情况下，可能为投资者取得超额收益。 风险因素：国内经济增长不及预期，地缘政治因素 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 :sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn ...

长周期考核更符合养老金"长钱"特点 "养老金负债周期长、体量大、来源稳，要求长期稳健保值增值，具有长期投资的天然需求和与之适应 的长周期考核内在需要。"长江养老保险受托业务总部副总经理、养老金融研究中心负责人曾宪才对 《金融时报》记者表示。 今年1月，中央金融办、中国证监会、财政部、人力资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联 合印发的《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》提出，加快出台企(职)业年金基金3年以上长周 期业绩考核指导意见。证监会主席吴清在国新办发布会上强调，实施长周期考核能有效熨平短期波动对 业绩的影响，是引导中长期资金入市的"关键制度突破"。人力资源和社会保障部副部长李忠表示， 将"更加注重基金中长期收益，健全长周期考核机制"。 近日，人力资源社会保障部公布2025年一季度全国企业年金基金业务数据显示，截至2025年一季度末， 全国16.82万家企业建立企业年金，参加职工3290.81万人。 企业年金投向一直被视为投资风向标，其投资业绩也备受关注。从年金投资管理情况看，截至2025年一 季度末，企业年金基金积累达到3.73万亿元，投资资产净值3.70万亿元，近三年(2022年4月1日— ...

政策利好下，近期券商板块明显回暖。6月18日，证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层增强制度 包容性适应性的意见》，科创板"1+6"改革细则出炉！有分析称，证券行业有望受益于科创板的深化改 革。消息面利好提振下，该如何看待券商板块的投资机遇？ 科创板IPO边际宽松，券商板块或迎利好！ 在科创板"1+6"改革方案中，"1"代表设置科创成长层，而"6"则指在科创板创新推出6项改革措施，包括 面向优质科技企业试点IPO预先审阅机制、扩大第五套标准适用范围、支持在审未盈利科技企业面向老 股东开展增资扩股等。 有分析称，"1+6"政策是促使资本市场更好地服务科技创新和新质生产力发展的有力举措。证券公司作 为中介机构，落实好自身"资本市场看门人"责任的前提下，业务发展受益于资本市场改革政策。政策落 地后，科创板IPO边际放松，或利好券商投行、PE直投业务发展。 （资料参考：开源证券《1+6政策落地 科创板IPO边际宽松 利好券商投行、直投业务》，2025.6.19） 此外，随着稳股市政策效果逐步显现，近期市场情绪明显回暖，沪深两市成交活跃度提升，或利好券商 板块。 如何看待券商板块的长期价值？ 当前，多重利好因素共振下， ...

《意见》提出支持增强消费能力，培育消费需求。夯实宏观经济基础，稳定消费预期，加大实体经济支 持力度，强化金融与财政、产业等政策协同联动，实施好货币政策和财政政策，健全资本市场功能，推 动中长期资金入市。同时，支持居民就业增收，强化民营和小微企业、个体工商户等经营主体金融服 务，创新金融产品，规范投资理财业务，提高居民财产性收入。此外，鼓励金融机构研发个人养老金专 属产品，加快推进商业保险年金产品创新，提升消费意愿。 在支持消费产业链上优质企业融资方面，《意见》明确发挥信贷支持主渠道作用，鼓励金融机构创新优 化信贷产品，加大对消费行业经营主体首贷、续贷、信用贷、中长期贷款支持力度。设立服务消费与养 老再贷款，额度5000亿元，对符合条件的金融机构发放的服务消费重点领域贷款，可按贷款本金的 100%申请再贷款。加大债券市场融资支持力度，支持文化、旅游、教育等服务消费领域企业及科创企 业发行债券。积极发展股权融资，支持消费产业链上优质企业通过发行上市、"新三板"挂牌等方式融 资，引导社会资本加大投资，发挥私募股权投资基金和创业投资基金作用。 《意见》提出加大消费重点领域金融支持。推动扩大商品消费，鼓励金融机构做好消 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of the "Opinions on Setting Up a Growth Layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which aims to enhance the market's investment and financing functions and promote the aggregation of medium- and long-term funds towards new productive forces [1] - The inclusion of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in the fund advisory configuration range is significant, as it is expected to broaden the investment scope of fund advisors and attract long-term quality funds to invest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The number of fund companies laying out Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has reached 27, indicating a growing interest and recognition of these products in the market, with approximately 1.23 billion yuan attracted by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF from June 18 to June 24 [3] Group 2 - The introduction of more Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF options and futures is seen as beneficial for investors to manage risks associated with short-term market fluctuations, thereby attracting more medium- and long-term funds [4] - The upcoming allowance for qualified foreign investors to participate in on-site ETF options trading starting from October 9, 2025, is expected to enhance the stability of foreign institutional investment behavior and promote long-term investment in A-shares [4] - The diversification of Sci-Tech Innovation Board-related ETFs and other derivatives is anticipated to provide investors with more participation methods and effective risk management tools, enhancing market attractiveness and liquidity [4]

Group 1 - The pilot IPO pre-review mechanism aims to enhance the service quality for high-quality technology enterprises, reducing exposure time during the listing process and improving information security [1] - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum will showcase China's economic high-quality development and its commitment to high-level opening-up, presenting opportunities and benefits to the world [2] - Global Robotaxi players are accelerating commercialization, with Tesla launching a pilot service in Texas, indicating progress in the validation of their technology [3] Group 2 - A significant performance divergence is observed among A-share companies, with 16 companies disclosing their 2025 semi-annual performance forecasts, highlighting the varying financial health across sectors [4] - The four major banks have successfully raised a total of 520 billion yuan through private placements, enhancing their capital strength and supporting financial services to the real economy [5] - State-owned enterprise reform is exemplified by Guotou Zhonglu's planned acquisition of a controlling stake in a leading electronic engineering design firm, indicating a trend of asset consolidation [6][7] Group 3 - The introduction of ETF investment strategies for wealth management is expected to accelerate, as policies allow for the inclusion of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in advisory configurations [8] - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are making headlines with substantial licensing deals, reflecting a shift from being followers to contributors in the global pharmaceutical landscape [9] - The automotive industry is witnessing a call for optimized rebate policies to alleviate dealer financial pressures, marking a response to current market conditions [10] Group 4 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is set to launch five new thematic indices focused on the growth sectors of the ChiNext market, enhancing investment opportunities [11] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment, with measures in place to address market demands and pressures [12] - Over 60 A-share companies are in the process of planning listings in Hong Kong, driven by policy factors and improved market conditions [13] - The implementation of a plan to promote long-term capital market participation is underway, aiming to stabilize the market through systematic institutional arrangements [14]

其一，重点引导商业保险资金、全国社会保障基金、基本养老保险基金、企(职)业年金基金、公募基金 等中长期资金进一步加大入市力度，明确稳步提高中长期资金投资A股规模和比例的具体安排。 从政策效果来看，保险资金长期股票投资试点正加速落地。今年1月份、3月份，国家金融监督管理总局 批复开展保险资金长期投资试点第二批试点项目，规模共计1120亿元。5月份，国家金融监督管理总局 批复同意开展第三批保险资金长期投资改革试点。随着第三批试点600亿元资金落地，保险资金长期投 资改革试点总规模将累计达2220亿元。 中长期资金是维护市场平稳健康运行的"压舱石""稳定器"。今年年初，中央金融办等六部门联合印发 《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》(以下简称《实施方案》)，围绕中长期资金入市的卡点、 堵点，在长期投资考核制度、投资政策、市场生态建设等方面作出一系列制度安排。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对《证券日报》记者表示，《实施方案》旨在通过系统性的制度设计和资 金引导，推动商业保险资金、全国社会保障基金、基本养老保险基金、公募基金等中长期资金持续进入 A股市场，提升市场的内在稳定性。政策实施以来，中长期资金入市的速度和规模 ...

申万宏源研究资深高级研究员 袁宇泽 优化投资者结构、推动各类投资者协调发展是资本市场投资端改革的重要内容。申万宏源研究提出A股投资者结构"五分 法"并对不同类别的投资者持股比例及变化进行年度跟踪分析。通过对投资者结构的分析，我们可以更直观的判断各类投资主 体的行为、对市场投资风格的影响以及未来资本市场投资端改革的重点。近年来，我国持续加大引入中长期资金，以中央汇金 公司为代表的主体在关键时期积极入市投资，在稳定市场预期，增强资本市场内生稳定机制上发挥了重要作用。2024年末以产 业资本、政府持股、专业投资机构、个人大股东和一般个人投资者为代表的五大类投资者A股持股市值占比分别为34.4%、 7.6%、19.2%、6.4%和32.3%，与年初相比，产业资本、政府持股占比有一定的提升，专业投资机构和个人大股东持股占比略 微下降，一般个人投资者持股占比下滑。具体来看，2024年投资者结构呈现以下特征和变化： 一、产业资本和政府持股发挥市场"压舱石"作用 产业资本和政府持股近年来逆周期特征突出。与境外发达市场不同，我国股票市场除个人和机构持股之外，还有大量的产 业资本和政府类主体持股。由于产业资本和政府持股主体的持股 ...