ABOUT STRATEGIES RESPONSIBILITY INSIGHTS | InvestorsCareersContact Us Login Is It a Bubble? 这是⼀个泡沫吗？ MEMOS FROM HOWARD MARKS 霍华德·⻢克思的备忘录 DEC 9, 2025 PDF (English) Listen to Memo Archived Memos SUBSCRIBE 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will fo ...

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储公布降息的货币政策决定且鲍威尔言论偏向乐观立场之后，市场方才掀起的"AI狂欢派 对"与跨资产看涨派对仅维持数小时便戛然而止，因为甲骨文公司(ORCL.US)股价暴跌重新唤起了人们对包括甲骨文、英 伟达、博通在内的热门AI科技股高估值的担忧情绪。如今，投资者们不得不思考，他们是否还能在月底圣诞假期之后迎 来新一轮的圣诞看涨行情。 华尔街对于甲骨文的投资立场愈发谨慎 甲骨文这份消极的财报数据瞬间引发华尔街热议，尽管non-GAAP基准下的每股收益大幅超预期、5230亿美元云计算订单 积压创新高，但真实利润被27亿美元一次性收益拔高，且核心业务利润率与现金流承压。 甲骨文云计算订单增长难掩实际利润转化焦虑，并且云业务增速不及预期，资本开支暴涨导致自由现金流转负，这一系 列负面因素导致甲骨文财报后股价急跌10%，瑞银、美国银行选择在财报公布后火速下调甲骨文目标价，大摩则将甲骨 文的股票评级置于"谨慎审查"，凸显出市场对于甲骨文的关注点已转向盈利质量(尤其是盈利来源过于聚焦OpenAI引发担 忧)与积压订单的实际兑现度。 摩根士丹利分析师团队表示，华尔街对于甲骨文的关注焦点已从"订单增长"转 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜资产管理公司Edmond de Rothschild首席执行官Benjamin Melman表示，美元明年可能 再次面临下行风险。"若市场再度担忧美国利率，或人工智能泡沫突然破裂，美元将面临风险。" 随着 美联储降息，美元今年持续走弱。美元指数DXY最新下跌0.05%至98.59。9月中旬该指数曾触及96.218 的三年半低点。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

图：硅谷通勤列车路线图，沿途经过圣克拉拉、山景城、帕洛阿尔托、门洛帕克以及旧金山等城市 在美国加州硅谷南北中轴线上，一条贯穿硅谷核心地带的"科技走廊"，正在悄然影响整个AI时代的"竞赛"格局。 从圣克拉拉出发，途经山景城、帕洛阿尔托、门洛帕克，一路向北直抵旧金山，这条线路大概是50-60公里（30-37英里）左右。 在这条路线上，全球最雄厚的资本与最顶尖的智慧交汇碰撞，数万亿美元的资金如赌注般投入。所有人都在争夺同一个目标——通用人工智能 （AGI）。 资本、野心与年轻天才们沿着这条走廊狂飙突进，速度前所未有。而这场豪赌背后的关键玩家、惊人投入、潜在风险，以及那些不得不面对的 深层追问，都散落在这个列车沿线的每一站。 硅谷列车：通往AGI的最前线 每日清晨，穿行硅谷的列车上挤满了埋头于笔记本电脑的年轻人。他们戴着耳机，手指在键盘上敲击不停。这些年轻人的电脑屏幕上，大多闪 烁的是各种工作的消息。窗外的风景无人欣赏，这些通勤者在奔向通用人工智能（AGI）全球竞赛的第一线。 硅谷正上演一场科技巨头间的激烈角逐。这场旨在掌握一项可能重塑世界技术的竞赛，由美国最具实力的资本力量推动，数万亿美元的赌注已 被押上。 沿着这 ...

12月9日，传奇投资人、橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）更新了投资备忘录 （Mem哦），标题为《是泡沫吗？》（Is It a Bubble？）。马克斯曾因为准确预测2000年初的互联网泡沫和2008年的 金融危机而被熟知，而这份备忘录也详细地讨论了当下AI大规模投资的"泡沫"是否存在，以及投资者应该如何理性地 看待AI科技革命热潮。 在备忘录中马克斯也提到，橡树资本也已投资若干数据中心："我们的母公司Brookfield正在筹集100亿美元基金用于AI 基础设施投资。Brookfield自己也投入资金，并获得主权财富基金和英伟达的股权承诺，计划采用"审慎"债务融资。 Brookfield的投资很可能主要流向数据中心尚不饱和的地区，以及为数据中心提供大量电力的基础设施。" 橡树资本目前的策略包括私募信贷、股权和房地产等三类资产。马克斯此前长期专注于固定收益（债权）和私募信贷 领域，对本轮AI基建投资中大量"债权融资"的应用，马克斯认为，这不同于以往科技浪潮中的科技企业融资。 "对某些公司来说，这些投资和杠杆已可谓激进，"马克斯指出，"甲骨文、Meta ...

"美国靠资本市场优势赌AGI，中国则在性价比和产业应用中找机会。" "如果大模型不能实现AGI（通用人工智能），那么当前美国大模型公司在算力上的海量投入，大概率 短期内是算不过账来的，这可能是当下最大的泡沫。"上海未来产业基金总经理、上海未来启点社区理 事长魏凡杰的判断，道出了当前AI领域的争议核心。 当全球AI投资经历了3年多的"狂热"后，"泡沫论"的声音最近在美国此起彼伏。11月9日高盛发布研报 称：AI领域出现了类似于互联网泡沫破裂前的五项危险征兆，甚至泡沫程度更高。北京大学新结构经 济学研究院院长林毅夫日前在第十届复旦首席经济学家论坛上表示，"十五五"期间，美国很可能出现人 工智能泡沫的破灭，且可能像2008年美国房地产市场泡沫那样，给美国带来金融危机甚至全世界的经济 危机。 11月29日，清华大学FIT楼，在2025年中国人工智能大会暨全国人工智能学院院长（系主任）年会上海 未来启点社区分论坛：觉醒之境——AI的下一代基础方程研讨会上，30余位来自学术界、产业界、投 资界的专业人士多角度勾勒出中国AI"挤泡沫、练内功、出实绩"的发展图景——不赌虚无缥缈的概念， 而是聚焦底层创新、产业适配和性价比提升 ...

近期，一些国际机构将未来2年至5年的金价目标位设定在4500美元甚至5000美元左右。但要看到，金价 走势存在较大不确定性，未来金价走势受多重因素特别是国际局势变化的影响。综合来看，国际金价中 长期的价位仍取决于世界经济状况和地缘政治走向。主导金价的多空因素仍将继续博弈，市场的拉锯与 震荡或将成为常态。 一些国际机构日前作出预测称，金价未来仍有较大上涨空间。高盛对2026年底的金价预期已上调为每盎 司4900美元，花旗银行甚至认为中长期的金价可能挑战5000美元。不过，在看好金价前景的同时，其走 势存在较大不确定性，其中变数不小。 2020年国际黄金价格首次突破每盎司2000美元，之后曾历经反复，直到2023年才真正站稳这一关口，进 而刮起一阵阵"黄金风暴"，推动金价快速上涨，很快突破每盎司3000美元，在今年10月初突破4000美元 关口。受此影响，国内金价水涨船高，足金饰品已突破1100元人民币/克、工艺金条突破1040元人民币/ 克。 国际金价从今年3月突破每盎司3000美元到10月突破每盎司4000美元，年内涨幅在历史上最狂热的黄金 牛市中也是罕见的。涨幅过大、涨速过快，出现技术性回调与震荡的概率也在 ...

Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) FY 2025 Conference December 09, 2025 10:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsDax Sanders - EVPKim Dang - CEOConference Call ParticipantsMichael Blum - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystMichael BlumThank you all for being here. Appreciate it.Kim DangYeah. Good to be here, Michael.Michael BlumFirst of all, if you don't mind, could we just close the door in the back? Thank you. So, you put out the guidance last night, so I figured maybe just start with that, just talk through it, and ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company provided guidance indicating a 4% growth in EBITDA from 2025 to 2026 and an 8% growth in earnings [6] - The debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to end the year at 3.8 times, within the target range of 3.5 to 4.5 times [6] - Expansion capital expenditures (CapEx) guidance was raised from approximately $2.5 billion to over $3 billion per year for the next few years [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current backlog of approved expansion projects is $9.3 billion, significantly up from $3 billion two years ago, with 90% of this backlog associated with natural gas projects [9] - The company is evaluating over $10 billion in potential projects, primarily focused on natural gas, driven by similar demand drivers as the existing backlog [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas demand is expected to grow by over 20% between the end of 2024 and 2030, with estimates ranging from 22 to 28 billion cubic feet per day (BCF) [11] - The growth in demand is primarily driven by LNG exports, power generation, and exports to Mexico [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company sees significant opportunities in the midstream space, particularly in natural gas, and plans to expand its existing asset base to meet market demand [7][12] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet to capitalize on M&A opportunities as they arise, while also pursuing organic growth through its project backlog [64][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the current regulatory environment, noting improvements in permitting processes, particularly with the Corps of Engineers and FERC [46][47] - There is a recognition of potential supply chain constraints, particularly regarding compression equipment, but current projects are on track [52][56] Other Important Information - The company has a substantial gas storage footprint of 700 billion cubic feet (BCF), with 75% regulated and 25% unregulated [32] - Recent expansions in gas storage facilities have been successful, with ongoing projects expected to enhance capacity [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current backlog and growth potential? - The current backlog of approved expansion projects is $9.3 billion, significantly up from $3 billion two years ago, with a strong growth outlook in the natural gas sector [9] Question: How does the company view competition in the market? - The company acknowledges competition from other pipelines but believes there is ample opportunity for growth in the natural gas market, particularly in the Southeast [20] Question: What is the company's stance on M&A? - The company remains open to M&A opportunities but emphasizes the need for flexibility and opportunism in pursuing such deals [64][66] Question: How is the regulatory environment impacting operations? - Management noted improvements in the regulatory environment, particularly in permitting timelines, but expressed a desire for further reductions in these timelines [46][48] Question: What are the company's plans for capital returns? - The company plans to maintain a conservative approach to dividend growth to preserve capital for expansion opportunities, with potential for faster growth in the future as projects come online [60][62]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - Dalio warns that the global economy will face dangerous situations in the next one to two years due to the overlapping cycles of debt, political conflict, and geopolitical tensions [1] - He emphasizes that investors should not hastily exit AI investments solely due to high valuations, but rather focus on substantial signals of bubble bursts [2][3] - The current market shows cracks in private equity, venture capital, and refinancing debt areas, with rising global debt burdens applying pressure [1][4] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, political conflicts are expected to intensify, exacerbated by a high-interest rate environment and concentrated market leadership [2] - Dalio compares the current AI bubble to the tech bubble of 2000, noting that while it is significant, it is not as severe as the 1929 bubble [2] Group 3: AI Market and Investment Risks - The catalysts for bubble bursts typically arise from monetary tightening or forced asset sales to meet debt obligations [3] - Notable market figures, including Sam Altman and Michael Burry, have raised alarms about the potential AI market bubble collapsing within the next two years [3] Group 4: Middle East as an Emerging AI Hub - Dalio likens the rise of certain Middle Eastern countries to Silicon Valley, highlighting their rapid emergence as influential AI centers [5][6] - The UAE and neighboring countries are attracting investment managers and AI innovators by combining large capital pools with global talent influx [6][10] - The region's transformation is seen as a result of thoughtful national strategies and long-term planning, fostering a vibrant environment for AI and technology [10]