Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including inventory, export, production, price, and spread data in countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada [1]. Detailed Summaries 1. Inventory and Export Data - Analysts expect the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory to rise to 302 million bushels, up from the USDA's November 14 estimate of 290 million bushels [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean export sales increased by 1.2485 million tons, in line with expectations, with exports to the Chinese mainland up 232,000 tons. Export shipments were 1.0285 million tons [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean meal export sales increased by 219,800 tons, meeting expectations, and export shipments were 238,700 tons [1]. - ANEC predicts that Brazil's December soybean exports will reach 2.81 million tons, up from 1.47 million tons last year, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.33 million tons, down from 2.17 million tons last year [1]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 4.19717712 million tons of soybeans in November, a 64.40% year - on - year increase [1]. 2. Production Data - Canada's 2025 rapeseed production reached a record high, with the national yield rising to 44.7 bushels per acre and production increasing by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data - **Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and palm oil in Guangzhou fluctuated [2]. - **Basis**: The report provides basis data for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different periods and locations [3][4][5]. - **Price Spreads**: The report includes various seasonal price spreads of oilseeds and oils, such as the spreads between different contract months of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the spreads between different varieties [16].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 777.0 | 775.5 | 1.5 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 753.0 | 751.5 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | -46.5 | -49.0 | 2.5 | | I01 | 799.5 | 800.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 25.0 | -2.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 图表3：基差标的：巴西粉矿（单位：元/吨） ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 752.5 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; I01 closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan [3]. - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [3]. 2. Basis Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of Carajás fines increased by 3 yuan to 48 yuan/ton, while the basis of BRBF decreased by 7 yuan to 55 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Policy Adjustments - **Increased Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties were added, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11]. - **Adjusted Brand Premiums**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Modified Quality Premiums**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount rules for quality differences were also detailed [11]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties also changed. For example, the spread between Carajás fines and Newman fines increased by 5 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB fines and BRBF decreased by 4 yuan to 31 yuan/ton [13]. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is in a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been average recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - The overall atmosphere in the cotton yarn industry is weakening, with the price of pure - cotton yarn remaining stable, and some large manufacturers offering price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand [10]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton, the closing prices were 13765, 13725, and 13860 respectively, with price increases of 40, 40, and 70. The trading volumes were 200,316, 118,427, and 4,067 hands respectively, showing decreases of 66,349, 3,732, and 1,026 hands. The open - interest positions were 546,943, 370,519, and 13,609, with increases of 1,675, 22,949, and 1,112 respectively. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn, the closing prices were 20045, 20040, and 20095 respectively, with price changes of - 45, 60, and - 30. The trading volumes were 4,978, 60, and 2 hands respectively, showing decreases of 8,693, increases of 55, and decreases of 8. The open - interest positions were 6543, 46, and 7, with changes of - 1364, 6, and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14936 yuan/ton, up 45; Cot A was 74.95 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M was 73.91; the price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, down 50. For cotton yarn, CY IndexC32S was 20770 yuan/ton, up 30; FCY IndexC33S was 20988 yuan/ton, down 11; the price of Indian S - 6 was 55800; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, up 100; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17300 yuan/ton, up 50 [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 40 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (down 30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 95 (up 30). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 5 (down 105), the 5 - 9 spread was - 55 (up 90), and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (up 15). In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 6280 (down 85), CY05 - CF05 was 6315 (up 20), and CY09 - CF09 was 6235 (down 100). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1899 (up 14), the sliding - duty internal - external cotton spread was 933 (up 12), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 218 (up 41) [2]. 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 1.7234 million tons, with an inspection progress of 57.63%, a 12% year - on - year decrease; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 35,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 42.4%, a 34% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the quarterly deliverable ratio increased month - on - month. The U.S. cotton harvest is in the late stage, and the listing inspection peak season has seen a narrowing of the year - on - year lag in the listing progress, with the overall inspection of Pima cotton being much slower. The quarterly deliverable ratio continues to rise. In the week of October 16, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 39,800 tons, a 11% weekly increase and a 5% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks; the weekly signing volume of 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton was 6,100 tons; the weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 36,200 tons, a 15% weekly increase and a 1% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [4]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling - hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relative off - season. Overall, the large - scale listing of new cotton on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but a possible smaller - than - expected increase; on the demand side, recent orders have been average, but previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will likely be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to wait and see [8][9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton continues to fluctuate strongly. Although there is some resilience in recent demand, the overall atmosphere is weakening. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, and some large manufacturers have carried out price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton has gradually weakened the cash flow of spinning enterprises, and combined with year - end bank repayment, supplier settlement, and worker wage payment, enterprises are under great pressure. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand. The rigid demand for all - cotton clothing grey fabric is weak, and both the volume and price are expected to decline further. The grey fabric market has low popularity and insufficient confidence, mainly due to the decline in demand leading to insufficient factory orders. The price center has shifted downwards, and actual orders can be negotiated. The situation of dyeing factories varies, with better - performing ones having orders that can last about half a month, and those with less business being able to deliver goods in 7 days [10]. 3. Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 183.00, with a price increase of 71.0%, an implied volatility (IV) of 6.7%, a Delta of 0.7924, a Gamma of 0.0012, a Vega of 8.9763, a Theta of - 2.5396, a theoretical leverage of 74.2350, and an actual leverage of 58.8238. For the CF601P13000.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, with a price decrease of 75.9%, an IV of 11.4%, a Delta of - 0.0470, a Gamma of 0.0000, a Vega of 3.0820, a Theta of - 1.2967, a theoretical leverage of 1,940.7143, and an actual leverage of 91.2136. For the CF601P12400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, with a price decrease of 83.3%, an IV of 17.3%, a Delta of - 0.0106, a Gamma of 0.0001, a Vega of 0.8840, a Theta of - 0.5394, a theoretical leverage of 6,792.5000, and an actual leverage of 72.0005. The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The recommendation for options is to wait and see [13][14]. 4. Related Attachments - The text provides multiple figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the hog market, indicating that the inventory reduction node has arrived, and the near - term pressure is expanding. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a bearish view on the market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Hog Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,760 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of hog 2601 is 11,540 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; hog 2603 is 11,365 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; hog 2605 is 12,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of hog 2601 is 92,861 lots, an increase of 40,389 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest is 128,058 lots, a decrease of 2,774 lots. For hog 2603, the trading volume is 41,967 lots, an increase of 23,281 lots, and the open interest is 124,616 lots, an increase of 2,786 lots. For hog 2605, the trading volume is 22,335 lots, an increase of 11,915 lots, and the open interest is 69,132 lots, an increase of 1,973 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog 2601 is - 110 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2603 is 65 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2605 is - 630 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The spread between hog 1 - 3 is 175 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the spread between hog 3 - 5 is - 695 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IC2512 has a discount of 88.05 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 116.58 points, indicating a bearish signal [3] - The previous day, the two markets rebounded after hitting bottom. The high - dividend sector continued to strengthen, while the technology and communication sectors declined and adjusted, showing market divergence, with a neutral outlook [3] - The margin trading balance was 2487.1 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan, indicating a bullish signal [3] - IH2512 has a discount of 1.5 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 17.91 points, showing a neutral situation [3] - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM. IM, IH, IF, and IC are above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [3] - The long positions of IF and IH main contracts increased, while those of IC main contracts decreased, indicating a bullish signal [3] - Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index is fluctuating around the 4000 mark. Benefiting from the good news that the two US parties will end the government shutdown, the global stock markets rebounded. The high - dividend sector strengthened, and the technology and growth sectors declined and adjusted. The overall market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Index Futures Quotes - For the Shanghai 50 Index (IH), IH2511 had a contract price of 3,046.80 with a 0.38% increase, IH2512 had a contract price of 3,042.80 with a 0.34% increase, IH2603 had a contract price of 3,037.60 with a 0.25% increase, and IH2606 had a contract price of 3,030.00 with a 0.24% increase [4] - For the CSI 300 Index (IF), IF2511 had a contract price of 4,645.00 with a - 0.03% decrease, IF2512 had a contract price of 4,628.00 with a - 0.09% decrease, IF2603 had a contract price of 4,601.00 with a - 0.07% decrease, and IF2606 had a contract price of 4,558.20 with a - 0.08% decrease [4] - For the CSI 500 Index (IC), IC2511 had a contract price of 7,224.00 with a - 0.37% decrease, IC2512 had a contract price of 7,155.20 with a - 0.41% decrease, IC2603 had a contract price of 6,982.40 with a - 0.39% decrease, and IC2606 had a contract price of 6,785.80 with a - 0.45% decrease [4] - For the CSI 1000 Index (IM), IM2511 had a contract price of 7,458.20 with a - 0.38% decrease, IM2512 had a contract price of 7,369.80 with a - 0.43% decrease, IM2603 had a contract price of 7,148.60 with a - 0.42% decrease, and IM2606 had a contract price of 6,919.80 with a - 0.54% decrease [4] Basis and Spread - Provided historical data on the basis and spread of the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 500 Index from 2021 to 2025 [7][10] Spot Market Important Index Daily Returns - The Shanghai Composite Index had a - 0.07% change, the Shanghai 50 Index had a 0.32% increase, the CSI 300 Index had a - 0.13% decrease, the Wind All - A Index had a - 0.38% decrease, the CSI 500 Index had a - 0.66% decrease, the Shenzhen Component Index had a - 0.36% decrease, the STAR 50 Index had a - 0.58% decrease, and the ChiNext Index had a - 0.39% decrease [13] Style Index Daily Returns - Different style indices such as the 300 Cycle Index, 300 Non - Cycle Index, Low - P/E Index, etc., showed different daily returns, ranging from - 1.00% to 0.36% [16][20] Market Structure AH - Share Premium - Provided historical data on the AH - share premium index from February 2025 to November 2025 [23] Price - to - Earnings (PE) Ratio - Showed the historical PE ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [26] Price - to - Book (PB) Ratio - Presented the historical PB ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [28] Market Funding Stock Market Fund Inflow - Provided historical data on A - share fund net inflow and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [30] Margin Trading Balance - Showed the historical margin trading balance and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [32] Northbound Capital Inflow - Provided historical data on the net inflow of northbound capital from 2021 to 2024 [34] Capital Cost - Showed the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates from February 2025 to November 2025 [40] Market Sentiment Trading Activity - Provided historical data on the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2022 to 2025 [43][44][46][47] Publicly - Offered Hybrid Fund Positions - Provided related data on publicly - offered hybrid fund positions, with data sourced from Wind [48] Other Indicators Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield - Showed the historical data of the dividend yields of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and the 10 - year treasury yield from 2015 to 2025 [52] RMB Exchange Rate - Provided the historical exchange rate data of the US dollar against the RMB from 2021 to 2025 [54] New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking - Related to the tracking of new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index, specific data not detailed [55] Newly - Established Fund Scale Changes - Included the changes in the newly - established scales of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, specific data not detailed [57][59][61]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 737.0 | 742.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 717.0 | 722.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -43.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 763.0 | 765.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...