Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with some showing significant gains and others posting losses. The performance of different commodities varied based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic expectations [5]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors such as production changes, demand trends, geopolitical events, and macro - economic policies. For example, copper prices are affected by Fed's interest - rate cut probability and production reduction plans; crude oil prices are impacted by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical tensions, and inventory changes [8][11]. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - As of December 1st, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Shipping to Europe via container lines rose over 5%, coking coal rose over 3%, and eggs rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and palm oil and fuel oil fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and among bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose while TL fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts like Shanghai copper 2601, Shanghai gold 2602, and Shanghai silver 2602, and flowed out of contracts like CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 50 2512 [5][6]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In December, the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut is high, making copper prices tend to be strong. However, in the off - season, demand weakens, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. Chinese copper smelters plan to cut production by over 10% in 2026, which may stimulate copper prices to rise [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It showed a strong trend. In November 2025, domestic production continued to rise. Although there are concerns about future demand, such as the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for new - energy vehicles next year and the uncertain resumption time of CATL, current orders are high, supporting its strong operation [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The end of the demand peak season, increased inventories in the US, and geopolitical factors have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors like the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, but demand will weaken further. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance devices. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so the upward space is limited [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply has new production capacity. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate is at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is large. With the approach of the traditional demand off - season and some negative factors such as price cuts by Formosa Plastics, the upward space is limited [18]. - **Coking Coal**: It showed a strong trend in the short - term, but there is an expectation of peak demand in the future. The supply may decrease next month, and the downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Urea**: It showed a weak trend. With the approach of the heating peak season, the daily production is expected to decline, and the demand for winter storage provides support. The overall supply - demand situation has a certain anti - decline ability [21].

编辑 | 夏木 本周外盘看点 上周国际市场风云变幻，美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。美股强劲反弹，道指 周涨3.18%，纳指周涨4.91%，标普500指数周涨3.73%，欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨1.80%， 德国DAX 30指数周涨3.23%，法国CAC 40指数周涨1.75%。 与此同时，美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）数据将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，而 至关重要的核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。"近期核心消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者 价格指数（PPI）数据表现疲软，这表明关税对通胀的实际影响远小于预期影响，9月核心PCE也应反映出这 一趋势。"奈特利表示。 本周看点颇多，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的制造业与服务业活动调查数据，以及最新的自动数据处理 公司（ADP）私营部门就业报告将受到市场密切关注，这些数据是判断美联储是否可能在下次会议上降息 的重要依据。欧洲方面，欧元区通胀数据将成为投资者评估未来政策路径的重要参考。此外，产油国联盟 （OPEC+）会否决定维持产量、俄乌和谈走向都牵动着原油市场神经。 值得注意的是 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, 2025, the trading of the CME was disrupted. The expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise, and there was progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The silver market was in short supply and trading was active. The silver price soared, driving up the gold price. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks made the gold price remain strong, and the silver price also increased [4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The CME had a major outage on Friday. The gold price was pulled up by the silver price. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.59% at $4256.4 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price soared. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX silver futures closed up 6.06% at $57.085 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 5.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 90,873 kilograms, an increase of 450 kilograms, which was bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased, which was bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 558,882 kilograms, a daily increase of 11,906 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased, which was bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - The report suggests paying attention to the PMI data of China, the US, and Europe, as well as the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Specific time points include the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 09:05, China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 09:45, Switzerland's October real retail sales at 15:30, France's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:50, Germany's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:55, the eurozone's November manufacturing PMI final value at 17:00, the UK's November manufacturing PMI final value and the UK's October central bank mortgage approvals at 17:30, the US's November S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value at 22:45, the US's November ISM manufacturing index at 23:00, and the speech of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra at 23:30 [4][15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. Recently, the three main factors of the US government shutdown, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the concern about the escalation of Sino - US tariffs have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs had a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price was prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.82% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions decreased by 1.25%, and the net position increased by 5.14%. The SPDR Gold ETF position fluctuated and increased [28][33]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 3.27% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions increased by 3.62%, and the net position increased by 2.16%. The silver ETF position increased significantly and was still higher than that of the same period in the previous two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [30][36][40].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 ——国际时政周评 回顾：中美元首通话；俄乌；美委。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 中美元首再通话 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美元首再通话。此次通话从双方交流内容看，一方面是釜山会晤的延 续，同时也是双方已开始形成较稳定的定期沟通机制。随着今年以来双 方经贸会谈的推进，协商议题从关税议题进阶到战略资源&产业链议 题、再进阶到地缘政治议题，表明双方关系已逐步进入一个以稳定关 系、减少误解为目标的框架机制，而高层领导人的定期互动则是当前中 美关系缓和的保障和关键推动力。关注明年中美领导人的后续互动。 2）美乌会晤后将美方就结束乌克兰危机所提 28 点新计划修改并缩减为 19 点，美俄乌各方谈判持续。乌克兰和欧洲或在采取"踢皮球"策略，以 拖延美方此前提出的和平计划，为后续谈判争取时间和筹码。一方面俄 乌双方的战场攻击仍然继续，另一方面乌克兰代表团已访美、下周美国 特使将访俄，和谈继续推进。我们认为俄乌双方要在 ...

2025.11. 30 本文字数：2667，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 泽连斯基在例行视频讲话中说，他不希望外界对乌克兰产生质疑，希望消除任何谣言和猜测。因此， 按照"内部决定"，总统办公室将重组，叶尔马克已递交辞呈。29日，他将与可能接替这一职位的人选 进行磋商。 辞职后，叶尔马克28日晚对外表示，他将奔赴俄乌冲突的前线，并已准备好承担一切后果。 值得注意的是，除了担任乌克兰总统办公室主任，叶尔马克还有个重要身份：俄乌和谈乌克兰谈判代 表团团长。数天前，在乌克兰与美国关于俄乌"和平计划"的谈判中，正是叶尔马克出面斡旋，说服美 方同意对"28点新计划"作出大幅修改。 当前正逢乌克兰与美国、俄罗斯开启新一轮谈判的关键时刻。俄乌和谈后续如何推进？ 23日美国国务卿鲁比奥（右）和乌克兰总统办公室主任叶尔马克共同会见记者（新华社图） 乌兰政坛"二把手" 今年54岁的叶尔马克被视为泽连斯基政府的关键人物。早年叶尔马克在乌克兰的法律和影视圈内积 累了深厚的人脉。在泽连斯基还是喜剧演员时，叶尔马克就是他的密友，并有十多年的交情。2019 年泽连斯基参选乌克兰总统时，正是在叶尔马克的帮助下，登上了乌克兰政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Andrei Yermak, a key aide to Ukrainian President Zelensky, adds uncertainty to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, especially at a critical moment when talks are resuming between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding a "peace plan" [1][6]. Group 1: Yermak's Role and Resignation - Yermak, who served as the head of the Ukrainian President's Office and the chief negotiator for Ukraine in peace talks, submitted his resignation amid a corruption investigation involving his office [1][5]. - His departure is seen as significant due to his extensive experience and established relationships in negotiations, which may not be easily replicated by a successor [6][8]. - Yermak's resignation follows a search of his residence by anti-corruption authorities, although he has stated he is cooperating with the investigation [5][6]. Group 2: Political Context and Implications - Yermak has been a pivotal figure in Zelensky's administration, helping him rise to power and later expanding his influence during the ongoing conflict [3][4]. - His attempts to consolidate power within the government have led to tensions and controversies, raising questions about the internal dynamics of the Ukrainian government [4]. - The timing of his resignation coincides with critical negotiations, which may impact the progress of peace talks, as Yermak was viewed as a trusted negotiator by Zelensky [6][8]. Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations - The U.S. and Ukraine recently modified a proposed "peace plan," reducing it from 28 points to 19, indicating a willingness to negotiate further [7][8]. - Russian President Putin has set conditions for a ceasefire, complicating the negotiation landscape as he demands Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed territories [7][8]. - The upcoming meetings involving Ukrainian representatives and U.S. officials are expected to address the revised peace plan, with Yermak's absence potentially affecting the discussions [8][9].

11月28日晚间，现货黄金(伦敦金现)直线拉升，盘中一度突破4200美元/盎司，刷新近两周盘中新高。截 至发稿，现货黄金报4198.020美元/盎司，涨近1%，COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4222.8美元/盎司。 兴业期货28日早报称，CME数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至86.9%。美联储降息周期未 结束。金价支撑增强，长线看涨逻辑清晰。 国信期货28日发布报告认为，短期来看，贵金属市场预计将在避险需求与政策观望之间维持震荡格局。 技术面上，纽约黄金需重点关注能否有效站稳4200美元/盎司一线，若能企稳该位置，则下一阻力位上 看4250美元/盎司附近。操作上建议以回调后轻仓布局多单为主，重点关注俄乌和谈进展及欧美央行政 策信号演变。 现货白银日内涨幅扩大至超2%，报54.62美元/盎司，创历史新高。 SPTAGUSDO 2017-11- (40) 100 150 150 修效糖酸 d a t do do at the iller in the min PTAGEADOCHISOCHERED - 2022-06-12 - 8: MASSO STAT 8 黑水 t M 11:00 PM IN M ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease in domestic oil prices, with an expected reduction of 80 yuan/ton, translating to a drop of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter, despite a recent rebound in international oil prices [1][3]. Oil Price Trends - The anticipated decrease in domestic oil prices has reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, suggesting a possible downward trend as it falls below the adjustment threshold [1]. - International oil prices have shown volatility, with U.S. crude oil rising by 0.77% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 0.92% to $62.47 per barrel, before experiencing a slight decline [3]. - The market is currently facing expectations of oversupply, as indicated by an increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3]. Regional Price Adjustments - The following are the current prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.48, 98 gasoline at 9.48, 0 diesel at 6.53 [4]. - The price adjustments reflect regional variations, with prices for 92 gasoline ranging from 6.68 in Xinjiang to 8.00 in Hainan [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：经济数据利好美联储12月降息，俄乌和谈又有进展，金价震荡；美国三 大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债 收益率跌3.07个基点报3.996%；美元指数跌0.39%报99.81，离岸人民币对美元大幅 升值报7.0829；COMEX黄金期货涨0.78%报4126.3美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货946.5，现货941.45，基差-5.05，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90423千克，减少3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均 ...