2025.12. 15 本文字数：2173，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 兰州大学政治与国际关系学院副教授韦进深告诉第一财经记者，泽连斯基关于乌克兰不加入北约的表 态是俄乌冲突爆发以来乌克兰立场的重大变化，也是泽连斯基对于俄乌局势演变和美欧态度变化作出 的妥协。 乌克兰放弃加入北约（来源：新华社资料图） 乌克兰放弃加入北约 封图 | 央视新闻 隔夜，乌克兰"北约梦碎"。 据央视新闻报道，14日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在柏林会晤美国特使前夕表示，乌克兰已放弃加入北 约的目标，以此换取西方的安全保障，作为结束俄乌冲突的妥协方案。 "加入北约对乌克兰而言才是真正的保障，但鉴于美国和部分欧洲伙伴对此持反对立场，乌方同意接 受美欧提供类似于北约第五条集体防御条款的安全保障。"他表示。至于具体安全保障的内容，泽连 斯基称，乌谈判代表团成员、乌武装部队总参谋长格纳托夫将与美军方讨论，很快将知晓相关细节。 泽连斯基的最新声明与他此前的坚持，以及自2014年来乌克兰明确的外交战略目标形成反差。就在 本月初，泽连斯基还就"战时选举"问题首次松口。在俄乌冲突延宕进入第四年之际，乌克兰接连作出 重大的立场改变，是为什么 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 12, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Summary - As of the close on December 12, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shanghai Tin rose over 4%, Shanghai Silver rose over 3%, polysilicon, Shanghai Zinc, and International Copper rose over 2%, while Shanghai Copper and Platinum rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, Liquefied Gas and Coking Coal dropped over 4%, Red Dates and Coke dropped over 3%, and Glass, Eggs, and PVC dropped over 2% [6]. - Among stock - index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Stock - Index Futures (IF) rose 0.68%, the main contract of SSE 50 Stock - Index Futures (IH) rose 0.71%, the main contract of CSI 500 Stock - Index Futures (IC) rose 1.27%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Stock - Index Futures (IM) rose 0.68%. Among treasury - bond futures, the main contract of 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) dropped 0.01%, the main contract of 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) dropped 0.08%, the main contract of 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) dropped 0.13%, and the main contract of 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) dropped 0.70% [7]. 2. Individual Commodity Analysis 2.1 Copper - Shanghai Copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% on the day. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's data. December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm slowed down due to rising costs, and enterprises were cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipments and inventory accumulation. After the price increase, downstream demand was weak, and inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, the copper price rose due to the Fed's potential rate cut and positive signals from a macro - economic meeting, but downstream buying interest was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance is expected to be tight and the price is expected to be strong [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high but closed lower. In November, production continued to grow, and although the growth rate slowed down with the arrival of the off - season for salt - lake lithium extraction, production is expected to increase by about 3% in December due to frequent upstream capacity expansion news. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year, supported by price increases and high downstream demand. The potential supply increase has not materialized as CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased in November. Although downstream production continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The incremental demand for energy storage needs further verification. From January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively year - on - year, and the peak season is coming to an end. Overall, the growth of energy - storage demand and new - energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and lithium carbonate inventory is expected to increase. In the short term, supply and demand remain strong, but caution is advised as the downstream peak season nears its end [10][11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2024. The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventory was less than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations. US crude oil production slightly increased and is near the historical high. The Trump administration is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has been falling. The US and Russia have not reached an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the US is still pressuring Ukraine. G7 and the EU are considering banning Russian oil - export shipping services. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela. Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continues to fall. The Fed's December meeting has ended, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand. The number of US oil - drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and Middle - East exports have increased. The global floating storage of crude oil has increased, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's No. 3 SPM is expected to resume operation around the 15th. Iraq has resumed production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Overall, the crude - oil market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. 2.4 Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year. Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, and the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to funding and weather constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% to 25.34 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased and is near the lowest level in recent years. The recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil have led to a weakening of the crude - oil price. The US's sanctions on Venezuela have raised concerns about the export of heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. Next week, Hebei Xinhai will switch production, reducing the supply of low - price products. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction is coming to an end, and overall demand is weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has stabilized, and the basis is at a moderate level. The winter - storage policies of some Shandong refineries are unclear, and the market is cautious. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [14]. 2.5 PP - As of the week of December 12, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic - braiding industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders were slightly lower than last year. On December 12, some maintenance facilities of Zhong'an United restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 85%, at a moderate level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring PP increased to about 28%. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of PP decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance facilities has decreased. The downstream peak season is ending, orders for plastic - braiding and other products are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has dropped again. There is no large - scale centralized procurement, and the market is lackluster. Traders are offering discounts to stimulate sales. The supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [15][16]. 2.6 Plastic - On December 12, the number of maintenance facilities for plastics changed little, and the operating rate remained at about 90%, at a moderate level. As of the week of December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00%. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the raw - material inventory of agricultural films has decreased again. Orders for packaging films also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of plastics decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 500,000 tons/year from ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE was put into operation in October, and 700,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in November. The operating rate of plastics has increased slightly. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the peak - season performance is disappointing. The temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and demand in the north has decreased. The price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Downstream enterprises are mainly making just - in - time purchases, and the trading atmosphere is light. The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The plastic price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [17]. 2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region remained stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics' price cuts in December, export orders decreased, and social inventory increased slightly and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased, at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to recover. New capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua has been put into operation. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali production has decreased, and some enterprises' operating rates are expected to decline, but the production decline is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, and December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand. Coupled with the decline in coking - coal prices, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened and closed lower, dropping over 4% on the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 922 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At the supply end, a large amount of imported coal is entering the domestic market at the end of the year, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase in December. Some domestic factories are expected to reduce production after completing their annual production tasks. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking - coal mines was 85.31%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. Although mine production has declined, downstream demand is weak, and mine inventory continues to increase. The total coking - coal inventory increased by 43.78 tons month - on - month, and the supply remains abundant. The second - round price cut for coke is expected to be implemented soon. Last week, the pig - iron production decreased by 0.93% week - on - week to 232.3 tons. Steel mills are entering the seasonal off - season, and their operating rates are expected to decline. Snowy weather over the weekend has affected transportation, and whether the price will stop falling depends on the restocking situation after the snow stops [20]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high but closed lower, dropping over 1% on the day. The spot price remained stable with minor fluctuations, and downstream buyers were观望. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1630 to 1680 yuan/ton, with lower prices in Henan and few high - price transactions. Fundamentally, after the resumption of some production facilities, daily production has increased to about 19.5 tons, but some gas - based facilities are still under maintenance, and production is expected to decline in the second half of December. Downstream buyers are mainly dealers and compound - fertilizer manufacturers. Due to the rising raw - material prices, the price of compound fertilizers is high, and end - users are reluctant to buy. Fertilizer factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate increased by 0.09% month - on - month but is still 2.97% lower year - on - year. The recovery of production is limited due to high raw - material prices and weak end - user demand. Snowy weather in North China over the weekend has affected transportation and postponed the restocking process. Inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month. Overall, the weather has affected market demand, weekend orders are expected to decline, the price's resistance to decline is weakening, and there is little chance of a significant short - term rebound [21][22].

摘要今日周三(12月10日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4217美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4214.74美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%，最高上探至4217.77美元/盎司，最低触及4206.06美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周三(12月10日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4217美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4214.74 美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%，最高上探至4217.77美元/盎司，最低触及4206.06美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏向看涨走势。 特朗普严厉批评欧洲领导人软弱，并声称俄罗斯在与乌克兰的任何和谈中都占据主动，这进一步加剧了 欧美之间的紧张关系。他敦促乌克兰总统泽连斯基"必须采取行动，正视现实"，并称乌克兰"正输掉战 争"。 作为回应迹象，泽连斯基周二表示，他愿意举行被推迟已久的选举，但强调在持续遭受俄军攻击的情况 下，乌克兰需要外部帮助才能顺利举行选举，并确保军人能够参与投票。他还透露，近期由欧洲和乌克 兰官员敲定的20点计划修改内容，可能会在12月10日与美国分享，并预计本周将与特朗普的国家安全团 队成员会晤。 然而，谈判仍面临三大主要分歧：乌克 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news revolves around the meeting between U.S. representatives Vitkov and Kushner with Russian President Putin, indicating a shift in U.S. support for Ukraine, particularly regarding the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles [1][2] - Vitkov suggested that Ukraine should prioritize a ten-year tariff exemption from the U.S. over the request for Tomahawk missiles, which reflects a change in U.S. strategy towards Ukraine [1] - The U.S. has previously proposed a peace plan that included deploying Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine post-ceasefire, but this may no longer be a viable option due to strong Russian opposition [1][2] Group 2 - European leaders, including German Chancellor Merz, have expressed that any peace decisions involving Ukraine should include Ukrainian and European participation, emphasizing the importance of unity within NATO and the EU [4] - There are signs of a potential decoupling between the U.S. and Europe, as indicated by reports of communication breakdowns between the U.S. Department of Defense and European officials [4][5] - The ongoing discussions highlight the complexity of the geopolitical landscape, where Ukraine must balance its interests with European security concerns, despite U.S. attempts to exclude Europe from negotiations [7]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan have raised concerns about global liquidity tightening, and the gold price has been pulled up by the silver price. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have made the gold price remain strong. However, the domestic sentiment is cautious as the Shanghai gold premium has converged to around - 5.5 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading is hot, and the silver price has continued to rise, hitting a new all - time high. The Shanghai silver premium has expanded to 400 yuan/gram, with strong domestic sentiment. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks will keep the supply shortage game going, but the actual shortage possibility is limited, so caution is needed when chasing high [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan led to concerns about global liquidity tightening. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes closed down. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 7.33 basis points to 4.087%. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.41, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed up, and European stock indexes closed slightly up. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce [5]. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - Gold: The basis is - 5.78, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 450 kilograms to 90873 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is +1, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 14,820 kilograms to 573,702 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) - 09:00: Fed Chairman Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - Time TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone's preliminary November CPI and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on the supervision of financial regulatory departments - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [15] 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three main factors recently (US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both bullish and bearish aspects. Bullish factors are global turmoil, shadow Fed's significant influence, geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Bearish factors are the rising expectation of the end of rate - cuts, the Fed's internal differences, the less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire talks [13][14]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) - Gold: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 175,148, an increase of 3,960 or 2.31% compared with November 30; the short - position volume was 61,337, an increase of 1,635 or 2.74%; the net position was 113,811, an increase of 2,325 or 2.09% [31]. - Silver: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai silver on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 411,585, an increase of 9,241 or 2.30% compared with November 28; the short - position volume was 314,399, an increase of 7,038 or 2.29%; the net position was 97,186, an increase of 2,203 or 2.32% [33]. - ETF: The gold ETF (SPDR) position has increased in a volatile manner. The silver ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly. The COMEX gold warehouse receipts have continued to decrease but are still at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts have continued to decrease [39][40][42].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with some showing significant gains and others posting losses. The performance of different commodities varied based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic expectations [5]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors such as production changes, demand trends, geopolitical events, and macro - economic policies. For example, copper prices are affected by Fed's interest - rate cut probability and production reduction plans; crude oil prices are impacted by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical tensions, and inventory changes [8][11]. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - As of December 1st, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Shipping to Europe via container lines rose over 5%, coking coal rose over 3%, and eggs rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and palm oil and fuel oil fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and among bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose while TL fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts like Shanghai copper 2601, Shanghai gold 2602, and Shanghai silver 2602, and flowed out of contracts like CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 50 2512 [5][6]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In December, the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut is high, making copper prices tend to be strong. However, in the off - season, demand weakens, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. Chinese copper smelters plan to cut production by over 10% in 2026, which may stimulate copper prices to rise [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It showed a strong trend. In November 2025, domestic production continued to rise. Although there are concerns about future demand, such as the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for new - energy vehicles next year and the uncertain resumption time of CATL, current orders are high, supporting its strong operation [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The end of the demand peak season, increased inventories in the US, and geopolitical factors have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors like the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, but demand will weaken further. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance devices. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so the upward space is limited [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply has new production capacity. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate is at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is large. With the approach of the traditional demand off - season and some negative factors such as price cuts by Formosa Plastics, the upward space is limited [18]. - **Coking Coal**: It showed a strong trend in the short - term, but there is an expectation of peak demand in the future. The supply may decrease next month, and the downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Urea**: It showed a weak trend. With the approach of the heating peak season, the daily production is expected to decline, and the demand for winter storage provides support. The overall supply - demand situation has a certain anti - decline ability [21].

编辑 | 夏木 本周外盘看点 上周国际市场风云变幻，美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。美股强劲反弹，道指 周涨3.18%，纳指周涨4.91%，标普500指数周涨3.73%，欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨1.80%， 德国DAX 30指数周涨3.23%，法国CAC 40指数周涨1.75%。 与此同时，美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）数据将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，而 至关重要的核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。"近期核心消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者 价格指数（PPI）数据表现疲软，这表明关税对通胀的实际影响远小于预期影响，9月核心PCE也应反映出这 一趋势。"奈特利表示。 本周看点颇多，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的制造业与服务业活动调查数据，以及最新的自动数据处理 公司（ADP）私营部门就业报告将受到市场密切关注，这些数据是判断美联储是否可能在下次会议上降息 的重要依据。欧洲方面，欧元区通胀数据将成为投资者评估未来政策路径的重要参考。此外，产油国联盟 （OPEC+）会否决定维持产量、俄乌和谈走向都牵动着原油市场神经。 值得注意的是 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, 2025, the trading of the CME was disrupted. The expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise, and there was progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The silver market was in short supply and trading was active. The silver price soared, driving up the gold price. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks made the gold price remain strong, and the silver price also increased [4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The CME had a major outage on Friday. The gold price was pulled up by the silver price. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.59% at $4256.4 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price soared. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX silver futures closed up 6.06% at $57.085 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 5.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 90,873 kilograms, an increase of 450 kilograms, which was bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased, which was bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 558,882 kilograms, a daily increase of 11,906 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased, which was bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - The report suggests paying attention to the PMI data of China, the US, and Europe, as well as the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Specific time points include the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 09:05, China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 09:45, Switzerland's October real retail sales at 15:30, France's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:50, Germany's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:55, the eurozone's November manufacturing PMI final value at 17:00, the UK's November manufacturing PMI final value and the UK's October central bank mortgage approvals at 17:30, the US's November S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value at 22:45, the US's November ISM manufacturing index at 23:00, and the speech of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra at 23:30 [4][15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. Recently, the three main factors of the US government shutdown, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the concern about the escalation of Sino - US tariffs have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs had a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price was prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.82% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions decreased by 1.25%, and the net position increased by 5.14%. The SPDR Gold ETF position fluctuated and increased [28][33]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 3.27% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions increased by 3.62%, and the net position increased by 2.16%. The silver ETF position increased significantly and was still higher than that of the same period in the previous two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [30][36][40].

Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump indicates a move towards a more stable communication mechanism between China and the US, evolving from trade issues to strategic resources and geopolitical topics[4] - The ongoing economic talks suggest a framework aimed at stabilizing relations and reducing misunderstandings, with high-level interactions being crucial for easing tensions[4] - Future interactions between the leaders of China and the US are anticipated to be significant for the bilateral relationship[4] Group 2: Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The US and Ukraine have revised a previous 28-point peace plan to a 19-point version, indicating ongoing negotiations amidst continued military actions[11] - The likelihood of reaching consensus on key issues such as territorial security and post-war guarantees remains low, with differing focuses among the US, Russia, and Europe[15] - The current situation suggests a "kick the can down the road" strategy from Ukraine and Europe, aiming to gain leverage in negotiations[14] Group 3: US-Venezuela Tensions - Trump's recent statements suggest a potential escalation in US military actions against Venezuela, framing it within the context of domestic political considerations ahead of midterm elections[16] - The US aims to strengthen its control over the Western Hemisphere, viewing stability in the region as a core interest[16] - The geopolitical implications of Venezuela's significant oil reserves are highlighted, with potential impacts on global energy markets[16] Group 4: Tariff and Trade Policies - Ongoing US tariff policies are focused on strategic security industries, with investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Legal developments regarding tariff legitimacy and negotiations with countries like India and Brazil are expected to continue[22] - The upcoming election year is likely to intensify domestic political battles, influencing trade and tariff strategies[23]