Primary Market - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026, a total of 432 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 399.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.10% week-on-week [4] - Among the issuances, industrial bonds accounted for 184 bonds with an issuance scale of 166.02 billion yuan, down 30.88%, representing 41.57% of the total issuance [4] - Local government bonds issued 210 bonds with an issuance scale of 141.50 billion yuan, an increase of 19.61%, making up 35.43% of the total [4] - Financial bonds totaled 38 bonds with an issuance scale of 91.82 billion yuan, down 17.94%, accounting for 22.99% of the total [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.82 years, with industrial bonds at 2.29 years, local government bonds at 3.49 years, and financial bonds at 2.19 years [4] - The average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.13%, with industrial bonds at 2.03%, local government bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [4] - Four credit bonds were canceled during the week [4] Secondary Market - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in food and beverage, up 2.2 basis points, while the largest decrease was in light industry, down 1.2 basis points [5] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in non-ferrous metals, up 5.6 basis points, and the largest decrease was in agriculture, down 2.4 basis points [5] - The largest increase for AA-rated industries was in non-bank financials, up 1.8 basis points, while the largest decrease was in computers, down 6.3 basis points [5] - Regionally, the largest increase in AAA-rated local government bonds was in Jilin, up 5.9 basis points, and the largest decrease was in Inner Mongolia, down 2.1 basis points [5] - For AA+ rated local government bonds, the largest increase was in Beijing, up 5.8 basis points, and the largest decrease was in Fujian, down 2.7 basis points [5] - The largest increase for AA-rated local government bonds was in Guangxi, up 1.5 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Yunnan, down 6.7 basis points [5] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1,470.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.17% week-on-week [6] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [6] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 497.06 billion yuan, down 8.95%, accounting for 33.80% of the total trading volume [6] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 413.42 billion yuan, down 9.23%, representing 28.12% of the total [6] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 312.07 billion yuan, down 7.75%, making up 21.22% of the total [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the primary market, the net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased compared to the previous period, while the net supply of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (two - tiered perpetual bonds, "二永债") turned negative due to no issuance this period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mainly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performed well. The turnover rate of ordinary credit bonds and bank perpetual bonds decreased, while that of bank secondary capital bonds increased [4]. - For credit strategies, it is advisable to moderately extend the duration to 3 - 5 years for carry trades, and also focus on short - to - medium - term coupon - bearing assets and the potential cost - effectiveness of ETF component bonds. For two - tiered perpetual bonds, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for opportunities for valuation recovery or increased supply [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Supply increased compared to the previous period, with the issuance amount reaching 357.3 billion yuan and net financing of 255.1 billion yuan. Both industrial and urban investment bonds saw an increase in issuance and net financing. The issuance of industrial bonds increased to 204.6 billion yuan, and net financing rose to 146.5 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds increased to 152.7 billion yuan, and net financing reached 108.6 billion yuan, the highest since 2024 [4]. - The weighted issuance term increased to 2.89 years (previously 2.76 years). The weighted issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also increased [15]. - The credit bond bid - cap minus the coupon rate rose from 0.37% to 0.43%, and the subscription multiple increased from 2.52 to 2.82, indicating increased subscription enthusiasm [21]. 3.1.2 Bank Two - Tiered Perpetual Bonds - There was no issuance of bank two - tiered perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale turned negative. Two secondary capital bonds matured, with net financing of - 7 billion yuan, and one perpetual bond matured, with net financing of - 10 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Overall Yield and Credit Spread - Yields mainly declined, with 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performing better. For example, among 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, the AA - rated extendible industrial bonds had the largest decline of - 5.34BP [4]. - Credit spreads mostly widened, except for a small number of varieties such as 1 - year commercial financial bonds, some weak - quality urban investment bonds, and 10 - year two - tiered perpetual bonds, which saw a slight narrowing. The 5 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds performed best with a - 1.24BP change, while the 5 - year high - grade ordinary credit bonds had a relatively large widening [4]. 3.2.2 Urban Investment Bonds - Yields in various regions mostly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. Weak - quality urban investment bonds performed better. For example, in Anhui, the yields of AA - rated and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds decreased by - 1.76BP and - 6.33BP respectively in the past week [59]. - The turnover rate of urban investment bonds in different regions showed different trends, and the trading volume also varied [62][65]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - Yields in various industries showed differentiation, and credit spreads generally widened. For example, in the steel industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields decreased by - 2.30BP in the past week, while in the real estate industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields increased by 4.80BP [68]. - The turnover rate and trading volume of industrial bonds in different industries also showed different characteristics [70][73]. 3.2.4 Financial Bonds - Yields mostly declined, credit spreads generally widened, and the performance of excess spreads was differentiated. For bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, yields of different ratings and bank types showed different degrees of decline, and credit spreads and excess spreads also changed accordingly [93]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - Currently, most yields are distributed within 2.4%. The average yield distributions of industrial bonds in various industries and urban investment bonds in different regions are presented in detail in the report, with most yields concentrated in a relatively low range [105][106][108].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the national development bond (国开债) yield spread has lagged in its recovery compared to government bonds (国债), with the spread widening instead of narrowing during the recent market rebound [2][7][30] - The report highlights that the national development bond yield spread is currently at a historically high level, with mid to short-term spreads above the 70% historical percentile since 2021, and all maturities above the 80% percentile over the past one to three years [7][30] - The report identifies several reasons for the lag in recovery of the national development bond yield spread, including restrained buying sentiment from trading desks and strong demand for long-term government bonds from major banks, which has limited the recovery of the spread [3][11][30] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases have contributed to maintaining a higher yield spread between national development bonds and government bonds, particularly affecting short-term bonds [4][19][30] - It is observed that during the recent market rebound, funds have preferred to focus on credit spreads, such as those of tier-2 capital bonds, rather than national development bonds [19][30] - The report suggests that there may be opportunities for recovery in the national development bond yield spread, as it is currently at a high percentile, while credit spreads have compressed to lower levels, indicating potential for a shift in focus towards national development bonds [5][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading atmosphere weakened this week, and the credit spreads widened slightly from a low level. The AA commercial and trade industry's credit spreads widened significantly, while the AA+ steel industry's credit spreads compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 10BP. [2][4][6][27][45] - The net financing of traditional credit bonds increased this week, and the net financing of asset - backed securities increased by 58 billion yuan compared with last week. The issuance and repayment volumes of different types of bonds showed different trends. [4][12] - The credit bond trading volume decreased this week, and the turnover rate declined overall. The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared with last week. [4][20][21] - There were 36 bond implicit ratings downgraded involving 8 entities this week, and the "Xiangyi You" bond issued by Shanghai Xiangyuan Investment Holding Co., Ltd. defaulted. [5][43] - The central bank conducted large - scale net cash withdrawals this week. In the future, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds may continue to compress. [6][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On February 2, 2026, Anhui Small - loan Re - lending Co., Ltd. successfully issued two small public - offering corporate bonds, with a total issuance scale of 600 million yuan. This is the first public - offering corporate bond of a small - loan company in China, indicating increased regulatory recognition of the standardized financing of small - loan companies. [10] - On February 3, 2026, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization" was released, proposing to innovate the investment and financing mechanism for rural revitalization and strictly control the new village - level debt. [11] 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 298.2 billion yuan, an increase of 55.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 1.84 billion yuan, an increase of 58 billion yuan compared with last week. [12] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 98.6 billion yuan, an increase of 49.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 136.1 billion yuan, an increase of 18 billion yuan; the net financing of financial bonds was 63.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.6 billion yuan. [12] 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the weighted average issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds remained in the range of 2.5% - 2.6%. The average issuance interest rate of AA+ industrial bonds rose above 2.3%, and the issuance interest rates of other credit bonds with different ratings and varieties were less than 2.2%. [17] 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 92.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities all decreased. [20] - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds decreased overall this week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities all declined. [20] 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared with last week. The yields of different - rated and different - term credit bonds showed different trends. [21] 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA commercial and trade industry widened significantly, and the credit spreads of the AA+ steel industry compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 10BP. [27] - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different maturities widened slightly this week. [33] - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of different maturities fluctuated within 5BP this week. [38] - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds with different maturities fluctuated within 5BP, and the short - term (1Y) and long - term (10Y) spreads compressed. [40] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinion - This week, the implicit ratings of 36 bond items of 8 entities were downgraded, and the "Xiangyi You" bond issued by Shanghai Xiangyuan Investment Holding Co., Ltd. defaulted. [5][43] 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The central bank conducted large - scale net cash withdrawals this week. Overall, the credit spreads of the AA commercial and trade industry widened significantly, and the credit spreads of the AA+ steel industry compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 10BP. [45] - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened slightly, the credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated within 5BP, and the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds fluctuated within 5BP, with the short - term and long - term spreads compressing. [45] - In January 2026, the yields of bank secondary and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the excess spreads were still at a high level since the beginning of 2025. The credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds may continue to compress in the future. [45][46]

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit bond yields generally declined this week, with credit spreads widening passively[1] - The overall equity market was weak, while the central bank supported the liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a stronger bond market[1] - The 5-year credit spreads for Puxin bonds widened significantly after a previous compression, while 1-2 year AA real estate bonds performed well with a substantial narrowing of spreads[1] Group 2: Divergence in Bond Performance - The overall demand structure for bank perpetual bonds may be weaker compared to Puxin bonds due to regulatory impacts and changing investment preferences[2] - After a compression of excess spreads, the coupon value of perpetual bonds has decreased, influenced by weak market trading sentiment[2] - Concerns over redemption pressures in secondary bond funds have increased due to volatility in the equity market, leading to heightened selling pressure on perpetual bonds[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions lack a clear trading theme, with short-term pricing factors expected to be neutral[3] - Focus on high convexity products is recommended, particularly in the 3-year and under category, where fund and wealth management demand is high[3] - For 4-5 year products, Puxin bonds near 4 years are highlighted for their high convexity, with yields around 2.5%[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From February 2nd to February 6th, 2026, a total of 432 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 399.332 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 15.10% [11] - Industrial bonds: 184 were issued, with a scale of 166.015 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 30.88%, accounting for 41.57% of the total credit bond issuance [11] - Urban investment bonds: 210 were issued, with a scale of 141.497 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.61%, accounting for 35.43% of the total [11] - Financial bonds: 38 were issued, with a scale of 91.820 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 17.94%, accounting for 22.99% of the total [11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.82 years, with industrial bonds at 2.29 years, urban investment bonds at 3.49 years, and financial bonds at 2.19 years [13] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%, with industrial bonds at 2.03%, urban investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [17] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - In Shenwan's first - level industries, the largest upward movement in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the food and beverage industry (2.2BP), and the largest downward movement was in the light manufacturing industry (1.2BP). For AA + - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - ferrous metals (5.6BP), and the largest downward movement was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.4BP). For AA - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - bank finance (1.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in the computer industry (6.3BP) [24] - In terms of urban investment bonds by region, for AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Jilin (5.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in Inner Mongolia (2.1BP). For AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Beijing (5.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in Fujian (2.7BP). For AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Guangxi (1.5BP), and the largest downward movement was in Yunnan (6.7BP) [26] - Coal credit spreads showed mixed trends, and steel credit spreads generally increased. For coal, AAA, AA +, and AA - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.9BP, and increased by 1.1BP respectively. For steel, AAA and AA + - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP and 5BP respectively [24] - Urban investment credit spreads of various levels showed mixed trends, and non - urban investment credit spreads generally increased. The three - level urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.1BP, decreased by 0.6BP, and decreased by 0.8BP respectively; the three - level non - urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.6BP, increased by 0.8BP, and remained flat respectively [24] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, and private enterprise credit spreads generally decreased. For central state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.7BP, and decreased by 0.9BP respectively; for local state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 0.2BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and decreased by 1.4BP respectively; for AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises, credit spreads decreased by 0.4BP and 1BP respectively [25] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 147.0414 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 49.7061 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.95%, accounting for 33.80% of the total. Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 41.3421 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 9.23%, accounting for 28.12% of the total. Medium - term notes had a trading volume of 31.2069 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%, accounting for 21.22% of the total [27] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29]

Key Insights - The credit bond carry trade strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is narrowing, especially at the short end [3][4] - Current credit spreads are at relatively low levels, with attention on certain varieties and the value of lower-rated coupons [3][4] - The performance of perpetual bonds has been strong since the beginning of the year, but the market may have reached a temporary peak [3][4] Market Overview - In January 2026, the issuance of traditional credit bonds increased slightly, with net financing rising significantly [11][13] - The total issuance of credit bonds reached 12,308 billion, with net financing at 4,997 billion, showing a substantial increase compared to previous months [11][13] - The performance of credit bonds in January was strong, with yields declining and credit spreads narrowing across various maturities [19][23] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to extend the duration of carry trades to 3-5 years while focusing on mid to short-term coupon assets [4][6] - The demand for certain credit bonds is expected to remain supported by the accumulation of amortized debt funds, although the market may not see the same level of activity as in Q4 of the previous year [4][6] - Attention should be given to high-quality central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds, lower-rated city investment bonds, and high-grade insurance subordinated bonds for potential investment opportunities [4][6]

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

Group 1 - The net financing amount of credit bonds is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated [1] - In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with the exception of medium-term notes, which saw a decrease in issuance amount [11] - The overall trend in credit bond yields remains low, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yields [59] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on quality improvement, supported by ongoing policy optimization [60][61] - The recovery in real estate sales is expected to significantly impact bond valuations, with a focus on companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [61] - Investment strategies should prioritize high-quality state-owned enterprises and well-secured private enterprise bonds, while also considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [61] Group 3 - The likelihood of default on urban investment bonds is low, making them a key focus for credit bond allocation [3] - The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating under strict regulations, presenting opportunities for "entity-type" financing platforms [3] - Investment strategies should favor mid-to-short-term credit bonds while maintaining a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - In January, credit bond configuration sentiment was strong, leading to a significant compression of credit spreads, with 5-year credit spreads narrowing to the lowest point since 2025[12] - February's market outlook indicates a neutral to favorable pricing environment for bonds, with credit spreads expected to continue narrowing, particularly in the long-term credit segment[8] - The demand for credit bonds remains robust, especially for short-term products, driven by institutional investments and favorable monetary conditions[8] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For bonds with maturities of 5 years or less, focus on structural opportunities, particularly in the real estate sector, where sentiment is expected to improve[3] - Long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) are currently in a favorable positioning window, but investors should be cautious and take profits quickly as spreads compress[3] - Specific recommendations include targeting high liquidity bonds and those with favorable convexity, particularly in the 5.5-6 year and 7.5-8 year ranges[4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the urban investment bond sector, low-grade bonds with maturities of 3 years or less still offer attractive yields, while medium to long-term bonds should focus on high-quality issuers[5] - The real estate bond market should concentrate on 1-2 year maturities, particularly for state-owned enterprises, as valuation recovery momentum is strong[5] - For coal bonds, short-term investments should be made cautiously, with a focus on high-rated issuers due to potential price fluctuations in the coal market[5]