Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the photovoltaic industry, with the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 5.09% and key stocks such as Daqo Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing significant gains [1] - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index is composed of up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [2] - The index's valuation is at a historical low, with a latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.78, indicating a strong value proposition as it is lower than 82.54% of the time over the past three years [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index account for 55.39% of the index, with notable companies including Sungrow Power Supply, LONGi Green Energy, and Tongwei Co. [2] - The photovoltaic industry is responding to supply-side reforms, with glass manufacturers planning to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to lead to a rebound in polysilicon prices [1] - The focus is on two main areas: the rigid supply side and the potential price elasticity of materials like silicon, glass, and quartz sand following a recovery in demand, as well as long-term growth opportunities arising from new technologies [1]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang attends the first-stage meeting of the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meetin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic supply-side reform is ongoing, with a focus on improving product quality and eliminating low-price competition [1][2]. - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% [1][2]. - The demand for batteries and materials is expected to grow as new models of electric vehicles are launched in the second half of the year, with projections indicating high growth in domestic sales of new energy vehicles by 2025 [1]. - The solid-state battery industrialization trend is clear, with attention on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In May, China's photovoltaic installed capacity reached 92.92 GW, a year-on-year increase of 388%, which may suppress demand for photovoltaic installations in the near term [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is being driven by policies promoting industrialization, with a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 1.99% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.4% [10]. - The photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase of 6.80%, while the lithium battery index rose by 3.84% [2][13]. New Energy Vehicles - Major players in the new energy vehicle market reported varying delivery figures for June, with BYD delivering 383,600 units (up 11.98% year-on-year) and Li Auto experiencing a decline of 24% [2][27]. - The report highlights the expected growth in new energy vehicle sales, driven by the introduction of new models [1][2]. Photovoltaic Sector - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. - The report notes the significant increase in installed capacity and the potential impact on future demand [1]. Hydrogen Energy - The approval of a large-scale green hydrogen pipeline project indicates ongoing support for the hydrogen energy sector [1][27]. Company Developments - Companies like EVE Energy and Xinwanda are planning to issue H-shares for overseas listings, indicating growth strategies in the electric equipment sector [2][28].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic sector has experienced a significant rebound since July 2, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Yamaton and Yijing Photovoltaic, indicating a potential turning point after three years of decline [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since July 2, 2025, Yamaton and Yijing Photovoltaic saw stock price increases of 33% and 26% respectively over three trading days [1]. - Major companies such as Daqo Energy and Tongwei Co. also experienced gains exceeding 10% [1]. - The photovoltaic sector has faced a cumulative decline of over 50% since its peak in 2022, with some leading companies suffering losses of over 80% [3]. Group 2: Government Policy and Industry Outlook - The sixth Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity in the photovoltaic sector [5][6]. - This policy direction is seen as a potential precursor to a supply-side reform similar to that initiated in the coal and steel industries in 2015 [7][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focusing on the photovoltaic industry, where it was discussed to control the total production of polysilicon to not exceed 1.4 million tons by 2030, indicating a potential reduction of over 56% in capacity [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment reflects a belief that the photovoltaic industry may be on the verge of a significant turnaround, with expectations of concrete policy implementations soon [15][19]. - A proposed alliance among six leading polysilicon companies aims to establish a 70 billion yuan fund to acquire and retire excess production capacity, which could facilitate a more orderly market exit for smaller firms [17][18]. - The current cash cost of polysilicon production for leading companies is around 27,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with a reasonable price expectation of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan to ensure profitability [25][26]. Group 4: Market Structure and Future Prospects - The global polysilicon market is heavily concentrated in China, with the top six companies accounting for over 80% of the market share [21]. - The integration of polysilicon production is expected to be less challenging compared to other segments, suggesting a higher potential for price recovery [22]. - The photovoltaic sector's overall valuation is currently at a historical low after three years of decline, indicating potential for valuation recovery as fundamental conditions improve [27].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of breaking the "involution" competition in the photovoltaic sector and highlights opportunities for supply-side reforms [15][16] - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with significant increases in project approvals and bidding volumes [16][18] - The approval of the first cross-province green hydrogen pipeline in Inner Mongolia marks a significant step for the hydrogen energy sector [20] - The launch of the Honor Magic V5 smartphone with the highest silicon content in the battery indicates advancements in lithium battery technology [30] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The report discusses the need for supply-side reforms to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality in the photovoltaic industry [15] - Key companies to watch include Xiexin Technology, Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and others involved in silicon materials and glass production [15] - The report anticipates a rebound in polysilicon prices due to collective production cuts by glass manufacturers [15] Wind Power & Grid - Wind power projects are seeing a surge in approvals, with 549 projects totaling 67.53 GW approved by June 30, 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [18] - The report highlights the approval of two major ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which are expected to accelerate the development of the power grid [17][19] - Companies involved in wind power equipment and components are recommended for investment, including Goldwind Technology and others [18] Hydrogen & Energy Storage - The approval of the first cross-province green hydrogen pipeline is a landmark development for hydrogen energy, expected to lower transportation costs and promote green hydrogen consumption [20] - The report notes significant bidding activity in the energy storage sector, with a total of 2,973.119 MW/10,376.405 MWh of projects awarded in June [21] - Recommended companies in the hydrogen and energy storage sectors include Longi Green Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [20][29] Lithium Batteries - The Honor Magic V5 smartphone features a battery with a silicon content of 25%, showcasing advancements in battery technology [30] - The report suggests that the demand for high safety, lightweight, and long-lasting batteries in consumer electronics will drive the development of silicon-carbon anodes and solid-state batteries [30] - Key companies to monitor in the lithium battery space include Defu Technology and others [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involution" style competition in the photovoltaic sector, advocating for supply-side reforms driven by policy, industry self-discipline, and corporate production cuts [2]. - It highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [2]. - The report identifies new technologies, particularly BC (Bifacial Cell) and copper paste, as key drivers for future industry growth and cost reduction [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solar energy index rose by 4.1%, with notable gains from companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd., which saw increases exceeding 10% [2]. - The report discusses the government's increasing focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a recovery in polysilicon prices, with the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon rising to 34,700 CNY/ton, a 0.87% increase week-on-week [2]. - It asserts that the main challenge in the photovoltaic industry is supply rather than demand, with expectations for improved supply conditions due to government guidance and industry self-regulation [2]. Technological Advancements - The report forecasts that leading companies will significantly expand their BC production capacity, with Longi Green Energy expected to reach 50 GW by the end of 2025 [2]. - It highlights the trend towards reducing silver usage in photovoltaic cells, with the silver consumption per watt decreasing from 6 mg/W to 0.5 mg/W, driven by advancements in technologies like XBC, TOPCon, and HJT [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, recommending stocks such as Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar Energy, and JinkoSolar [2]. - It also advises attention to auxiliary material sectors that benefit from policy improvements and have higher safety margins, recommending companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) experienced a decline of 0.51%, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan and a turnover rate of over 4% [1] - The ETF's latest share count reached 3.942 billion shares as of July 3, marking a year-to-date increase of 32.51% [1] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF saw a net inflow of over 120 million yuan, leading among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on July 3 to discuss accelerating high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need to address low-price competition and promote product quality [2] - The 18th International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy Conference recently highlighted key themes such as "capacity clearing," "industry integration," and "innovation breakthroughs," indicating a significant period for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic sector [2] - Future policies may include stricter regulations on upstream sectors like polysilicon and industrial silicon, as well as higher efficiency requirements for downstream battery and component sectors [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests that a combination of policy, industry self-discipline, and production cuts will drive supply-side reform, positioning the photovoltaic sector as a model for achieving high-quality development [3]

Group 1 - Supply-side changes are crucial for the photovoltaic industry's capacity clearance, and supply clearance is a decisive factor for the industry to recover in the second half of the year [1] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a collective rise in stock prices, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Shuangliang Eco-Energy hitting the daily limit on July 2 [1][4] - The cash flow of silicon material manufacturers is under pressure due to continuous losses, with the average asset-liability ratio of photovoltaic companies rising [1][4] Group 2 - Silicon material prices have shown a slight recovery due to stable supply and demand, while silicon wafer prices have declined due to weak terminal demand [2][3] - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials increased by 0.87% to 34,700 yuan/ton, while N-type granular silicon remained at 33,500 yuan/ton [2] - The production of multi-crystalline silicon in June was approximately 102,000 tons, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1% in the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - The reduction in production capacity is essential for reversing the current difficulties in the multi-crystalline silicon industry [4][5] - The asset-liability ratio of many photovoltaic companies has exceeded 70%, indicating significant financial pressure [4][5] - Companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy have indicated that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change in the short term, with silicon material prices expected to remain low [5] Group 4 - The global nominal capacity of multi-crystalline silicon is projected to reach approximately 3.04 million tons by May 2025, with domestic capacity accounting for about 97% [6] - The photovoltaic industry's supply-side adjustments are expected to deepen, with the multi-crystalline silicon sector likely to be one of the first to complete adjustments [6]

晨 会 纪 开源晨会 0703 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 2025 年 07 月 03 日 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 3.375 | | 煤炭 | 1.985 | | 建筑材料 | 1.421 | | 农林牧渔 | 0.837 | | 银行 | 0.754 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 电子 | -2.011 | | 通信 | -1.963 | | 国防军工 | -1.938 | | 计算机 | -1.640 | | 美容护理 | -1.091 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【金融工程】港股量化：南下资金累计流入达 2024 年 91%，7 月增配成长——金 融工程定期-20250702 港股市场 6 月概览：港股震荡上行，有色、电子涨幅亮眼。 港 ...

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