一场精心设计的"贸易战"：七日溃败与美国信用的崩塌 2025年4月2日，一场备受瞩目的"对等关税"行政令在美国签署。时任总统特朗普雄心勃勃，试图以此重塑全球贸易版图，然而，事与愿违，这场本应改变世 界格局的举措，却在短短七日之内，将美国自身推入了进退维谷的境地。 仅仅一周之后，美国政府被迫宣布为期90天的关税暂停令，且将除中国以外的商品关税统一降至10%。这并非出于高明的谈判策略，而更像是被迫的"投 降"，而且是以一种近乎狼狈的方式。美国国内的专家们一针见血地指出："总统将国家拖入了一场根本无望获胜的战争。"这句话精准地捕捉到了这场风暴 的核心——从一开始，这场"战争"就注定了失败的结局。 特朗普团队的设计，建立在三个致命的错误假设之上： 其一，他们错误地认为，美国的金融市场能够像2018年那样，承受住前所未有的冲击。然而，如今美国背负着高达37万亿美元的国债，每年仅利息支出就高 达1.2万亿美元，占联邦收入的四分之一。即使是10年期美债收益率微涨50个基点，都可能为财政增加数千亿美元的负担。4月2日政策发布后的七天内，美 债收益率从4.12%飙升至4.516%，债券市场迅速陷入流动性真空。这已不再是普通的市 ...

全球变局下的供应链挑战与应对暨《全球供应链与中国方略》新书发布会 2025年11月22日，由北大国发院与中国财富出版社联合主办的"全球变局下的供应链挑战与应对暨《全球供应链与中国方略》新书发布会"在北大国发院承 泽园隆重举行。来自学界、业界的专家学者齐聚一堂，围绕全球供应链演变趋势、中国战略选择等核心议题展开深度研讨，共同见证这部聚焦供应链领域 的重磅著作正式发布。 发布会由北大国发院传播中心主任王贤青全程主持，流程紧凑有序、内容丰富务实。 中国财富出版社社长张红燕致辞表示，在全球供应链格局深刻调整的关键时期，《全球供应链与中国方略》的出版兼具理论价值与现实意义，希望该书能 为政府决策、企业实践和学术研究提供有益参考。致辞结束后，现场举行了简洁而隆重的新书发布仪式，标志着这部力作正式与读者见面。 （北大国发院传播中心主任王贤青） （中国财富出版社社长张红燕） 主题演讲环节，原国家内贸部党组成员、总经济师，中国物流与采购联合会原常务副会长丁俊发首先发表"全球变局下的供应链新挑战与中国思考"的主题 演讲，充分阐述中国制造与中国市场如何成就中国全球供应链的枢纽地位，提出当下中国供应链面临的三个机遇和四个挑战。 随后 ...

Core Insights - European manufacturers are increasingly investing in China due to its complete industrial chain, improving manufacturing capabilities, and strong market potential [1] Investment Trends - Approximately 25% of European companies are relocating more production processes to China, which is double the rate of those moving capacity to other countries [1] - The pharmaceutical industry shows a high relocation rate of 80%, followed by machinery manufacturing at 46% and medical devices at 40% [1] - Direct investment from EU manufacturing to China has been steadily increasing since 2021, with greenfield investments reaching a record €3.6 billion by Q2 2024 [1] Strategic Importance - China is viewed as a global export base by many companies, emphasizing its role in maintaining global competitiveness [1] - The complete industrial system and supporting capabilities in China are crucial for multinational companies to remain cost-competitive [1] R&D Focus - European companies are increasingly considering China as an important platform for research and development, with growing investments in this area [1] - The automotive industry is highlighted as a key sector where European firms see China as a "critical testing ground" for transitioning from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the geopolitical dynamics between the EU and the US, highlighting the EU's willingness to compromise on tariffs in exchange for cooperation against China, which the US has firmly rejected [1][5][9] - The US has imposed high tariffs on over 400 steel and aluminum products, significantly impacting traditional industrial powers in the EU, particularly Germany, France, and Italy [3][5] - The US is leveraging the EU's economic vulnerabilities to reinforce its own digital dominance and strategic interests, demanding concessions from the EU in areas like digital regulations and market oversight [7][9][14] Summary by Sections EU-US Relations - The EU is seeking to alleviate the pressure from US tariffs by proposing cooperation to counter China's economic challenges, but the US has made it clear that tariff negotiations are off the table [5][9] - The US insists that any reduction in tariffs would require the EU to relax regulations on American tech companies, indicating a transactional approach to the relationship [5][7] Economic Impact - The US's imposition of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products has created significant challenges for the EU, prompting a search for solutions to mitigate the economic fallout [3][5] - The EU's dependency on the US for energy supplies, particularly LNG, has increased due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, limiting its ability to confront the US directly [9][14] Strategic Implications - The article suggests that the EU's attempts to balance its position between the US and China may lead to a loss of strategic autonomy and internal unity [13][14] - The US's approach reflects a self-interested strategy that prioritizes its own economic and strategic gains over a balanced partnership with the EU [9][14] - The ongoing competition between the US and China presents an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with emerging markets, potentially reducing reliance on Western markets [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public letter from Nexperia Netherlands has sparked significant controversy, suggesting that the supply chain issues are primarily the responsibility of Nexperia China, while the reality is more complex and involves administrative interventions by the Dutch government [1][2][3] Group 1: Administrative Interventions - The Dutch government forcibly took control of Nexperia's operations in the Netherlands on September 30, citing "national security," which severely disrupted the company's governance and operations [2] - The administrative takeover has led to a significant violation of the legitimate rights of the Chinese parent company, Wingtech Technology, and has created a major obstacle to resolving the supply chain issues [2][3] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - Nexperia plays a critical role in the global automotive and electronics supply chains, producing chips that are essential for major automotive manufacturers like BMW and Volkswagen [3] - The Dutch government's actions have not only strained the relationship with its Chinese subsidiary but have also exacerbated supply chain risks by implementing extreme measures such as halting the supply of wafers [2][3] Group 3: Call for Resolution - There is a pressing need for Nexperia Netherlands to restore production and supply, as the current deadlock is largely a result of the Dutch government's actions [3][4] - The Dutch government is urged to permanently withdraw its inappropriate directives and engage in transparent dialogue to rectify past administrative errors, thereby restoring market logic and contractual integrity [4]

Core Points - The "World Supermarket" at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport officially opened on November 28, featuring over 400 selected global products from more than 30 countries, aimed at enhancing consumer experience for travelers and local residents [1][6][10] Group 1: Business Model and Offerings - The supermarket focuses on core consumer categories, providing a diverse range of products including snacks, beverages, daily necessities, and personal care items, with many imported snacks priced in single digits [3][6] - All products are traceable, ensuring quality and affordability, catering to both travel needs and daily consumption scenarios [6][10] Group 2: Strategic Goals and Vision - The establishment of the "World Supermarket" is part of a broader strategy to innovate airport commerce and redefine the airport experience, aiming to transform it into a travel destination rather than just a transit point [8][10] - The initiative aligns with the goals of enhancing Hubei's high-level openness and supporting Wuhan's development as an international consumption center, leveraging the airport's hub advantages for a "buy global, sell global" strategy [10]

从长远来看，这一政策推动了区域内的贸易变化，尤其是RCEP框架下的区域合作，东盟峰会也开始积 极推动柬泰之间的合作，缓解了美国的压力。联合国贸发会议的报告指出，这种贸易壁垒可能会导致全 球GDP损失0.5%。中国坚持继续对外开放，推动各方对话，努力维护地区的稳定。 特朗普一上任就开始大力使用关税手段，打算通过这种方式调整全球经济格局。2025年4月2日，他在白 宫玫瑰园签署了一项行政命令，推出对等关税政策。此举意味着全球进口商品将面临不同程度的关税： 来自中国的商品被征收34%的关税，欧盟为20%，日本24%，韩国25%，印度26%，越南46%，孟加拉国 37%，巴基斯坦29%，柬埔寨则高达49%。这一政策宣布后，全球股市迅速下跌，道琼斯指数下跌了 3.2%，越南胡志明市股市更是暴跌了6.68%。特朗普的目的是通过这种经济手段重塑全球供应链，迫使 其他国家让步，尤其是中国的贸易路线被切断。巴基斯坦作为能源进口大国，每年需支付113亿美元的 费用，29%的关税直接冲击了其纺织和农产品的出口，这部分占其总出口的15%。而柬埔寨的服装业几 乎完全依赖美国市场，一旦面对49%的关税，工厂订单必然大幅减少。 这一政策对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights concerns from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding the potential transformation of the U.S. economy into a "banana republic" due to the policies of former President Trump, particularly focusing on tariffs and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Policies - Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 10% basic tariff on nearly all imports and a shocking 125% tariff on Chinese goods, have raised significant market anxiety and are seen as reckless decisions [1]. - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers described these tariffs as the "largest self-inflicted wound" to the U.S. economy, estimating a loss of nearly $2,000 per year for the average American middle-class family [1]. - The increase in tariffs has led to rising costs for everyday items, exemplified by the term "hamburger inflation," which reflects the soaring prices of goods due to disrupted global supply chains [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Consumer confidence has plummeted, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index hitting a three-year low, as over 70% of Americans express unprecedented anxiety about their financial situations [3]. - The share of manufacturing value added in the U.S. economy has declined from 16.5% in the 1990s to 10.3% currently, contrasting sharply with other countries like China (26.2%) and South Korea (24.3%) [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's public demands for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and threats to replace dissenting officials undermine the central bank's independence, which is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the U.S. dollar [6]. - Since the announcement of new tariffs in April, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 4% against a basket of major currencies, indicating market concerns about the dollar's credibility [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Positioning - While the U.S. adopts a more isolationist approach, China is actively engaging in trade agreements, such as its application to join the CPTPP and the implementation of the RCEP, promoting regional trade liberalization [7]. - The contrasting strategies of the U.S. and China signal a shift in global economic dynamics, with China being perceived as a "safe haven" amid rising uncertainties [7].

Core Viewpoint - The focus of global competition is shifting from trade and technology to maritime transport, with ports becoming a new battleground for major powers [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Inland Ports - China is a leading maritime nation, with 2024 port cargo throughput expected to reach 17.6 billion tons and container throughput at 330 million TEUs, maintaining its global dominance [3]. - The competition in ports is evolving beyond traditional metrics like cargo throughput to include efficiency and high-value services, highlighting the need for improvement in China's port operations [5]. - The Chinese government is transitioning from "point construction" to "system layout" in port development, emphasizing the integration of coastal and inland waterways [6]. Group 2: Growth of Inland Waterway Transport - The advantages of inland ports, such as lower costs and greater flexibility, are being recognized, with 2024 inland port cargo throughput projected to reach 6.139 billion tons, a 10.5% increase [9][12]. - In 2024, over 74% of China's port berths are located inland, indicating a significant shift towards inland waterway transport [10]. - The inland waterway transport system is becoming increasingly robust, with the number of major inland ports rising to 23, and cargo throughput reaching 4.95 billion tons, nearly tripling since 2012 [13]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Ports - The port economy significantly contributes to urban GDP, with the port economy's added value in coastal cities reaching 6.2 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 13.4% of related city GDP [15]. - The rise of inland ports is reshaping the economic structure of cities, as seen in Shanghai's Lingang area, which integrates various strategic industries [17]. - The logistics market around ports has grown from 2.3 trillion yuan in 2020 to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 6.7% annual growth rate [21]. Group 4: Case Studies of Inland Ports - Jiangsu province exemplifies the success of inland ports, with the Suzhou Taicang Port achieving a throughput of over 600 million tons in 2023, surpassing many coastal ports [22]. - Jining, leveraging the Grand Canal, has become a key inland port with the highest cargo throughput in 2024, fostering regional industrial clusters [25][26]. - The development of inland ports is not only enhancing logistics efficiency but also providing opportunities for cities to reposition themselves on the national industrial map [28].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China has intensified around rare earth elements, with China controlling over 70% of global production and significantly impacting US military and high-tech industries [1][9][20] Group 1: Trade Regulations and Impact - In late 2024, China's Ministry of Commerce introduced new regulations requiring export licenses for certain rare earth elements, leading to global supply chain disruptions [3][9] - By early 2025, China suspended exports of seven critical rare earth elements essential for military applications, directly affecting US defense contractors like Lockheed Martin [3][5] - Despite temporary agreements to ease tensions, China maintained strict controls on military-related rare earth exports, complicating US supply efforts [5][11] Group 2: US Response and Challenges - The US Department of Defense reported that rare earth shortages could delay missile production, with current inventory levels only sufficient for a few months [9][13] - The US government is pushing for domestic rare earth development, but establishing a complete supply chain from mining to processing will take years [9][13] - US companies are facing difficulties in obtaining rare earth licenses, with only half of applications being approved, leading to tight inventories in critical sectors like semiconductors and AI [15][18] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The rare earth conflict reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with the US attempting to pressure China through tariffs while China uses supply chain control as a countermeasure [13][20] - China's export control measures are seen as a strategic move to ensure resource security and market stability, while the US struggles to diversify its supply sources [20] - The long-term outlook suggests that the US must adapt to a multipolar world and rethink its position in global supply chains, particularly in critical resources like rare earths [16][20]