Group 1 - The recent increase in tariffs by the US government poses a significant risk to global economic growth, severely impacting the global commodity market, particularly oil prices, which are showing weak trends [1][2] - On May 5, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.99%, while Brent crude for July delivery dropped by $1.06 to $60.23 per barrel, down 1.73% [1] - In April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced a significant monthly decline of 18%, marking the largest drop since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year down to 1.3 million barrels per day, with the adjusted annual average demand expected to be approximately 105.1 million barrels [2] - US economic data has intensified concerns over reduced oil demand, with March job vacancies falling to 7.192 million and the consumer confidence index dropping to 86 in April, the lowest in recent years [2] - In April, US gasoline demand decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in two years, indicating weakened consumption and slowing activity in manufacturing and transportation sectors [2] Group 3 - The oversupply of crude oil is a significant issue, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, a substantial rise from the previous plan of 135,000 barrels per day [3] - Market predictions indicate a potential accumulation of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in global oil inventories by the second half of 2025 [3] - Speculative behavior in the market has exacerbated pessimistic sentiment, with WTI net long positions dropping to historical lows and Brent crude experiencing a record weekly reduction of 162,300 contracts [3] Group 4 - The formation of a true bottom in oil prices requires several conditions: stabilization of global demand, adjustments in oil supply, a balanced geopolitical situation, and alleviation of inventory pressures [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June, but this may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - As of April 25, US crude oil inventories stood at 440.4 million barrels, a decrease of 2.7 million barrels from the previous week, yet still close to the five-year average [4] Group 5 - The uncertainty in international oil prices is expected to lead to significant volatility, presenting a severe challenge for energy security [5] - Countries are encouraged to diversify energy import sources and accelerate the development of renewable energy [5] - The international community should actively promote multilateral negotiations to ease trade tensions and restore economic growth, thereby stabilizing the global commodity market, including oil [5]

大摩警告，全球航运数据全面下滑，暗示物价上涨、经济增长放缓的双重风险。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师Seth B Carpenter团队在其最新研报中指出，全球航运数据，特别是美国的航运数据，正在经历"惊人的下降"。这种 下降并非偶然，而是对贸易、供应链以及未来经济状况的重要预警信号。 报告显示，美国空白航班（即承运人取消的航班）数量显著增加，等待靠岸的船只队列已经缩短；美国第一季度GDP出现多年来首次收缩，但根本原因并 非内需崩塌，而是进口激增导致的统计学效应，这意味着4月2日关税政策引发的"抢进口"潮正在迅速消退。 报告指出，虽然周五发布的非农就业报告确认实体经济暂时完好，但由于"抢进口"效应，短期内数据将继续呈现波动性，长期可能会导致经济逐渐放缓和 硬性数据的疲软。 作为亚洲贸易的关键指标，韩国出口数据整体也呈现下降趋势。4月前20天，韩国出口同比下降超过10%，但在月末最后10天显著恢复，使全月降幅保持 在个位数范围内。 大摩几个月前对供应链的深入分析显示，某些产品可能会转向越南、印度和其他临近国家生产，但短期内这类产品范围相当有限。简单来说，重新调整生 产要素需要时间并涉及相当大的成本。 报告 ...

国外 1. 惠誉：非农报告展示出经济弹性而不是经济衰退，美联储将继续袖手旁观 6. KCM Trade：美联储会议前，金价可能在3200-3350美元区间交易 金价周一走强，受美元走软提振，投资者等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间的贸易政策更加明朗，并期待美联 储本周晚些时候公布的政策决定。KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示，"在本周美联储议息会 议前，美元走势低迷，这令金价小幅走高。在美联储会议之前，我们可能会看到金价继续在3200-3350 美元区间交易。然而，任何有关该贸易协议的新新闻都可能导致波动性再次上升。" 惠誉评级惠誉评级Olu Sonola表示，这是一份不错的就业报告。本报告中劳动力市场展示的"R"字是弹 性（resilience），当然不是衰退（recession）。目前，鉴于贸易政策可能会拖累经济，我们应该抑制对 未来的热情。从本周的整体数据中得出的关键信息是，美国经济在4月的第一周基本面强劲，但前景仍 然非常不确定。美联储将继续袖手旁观，直到劳动力市场出现真正的疲软。 2. 高盛：稳健的非农数据为美联储提供了耐心的空间 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates a cooling of overall inflation due to tariff measures and a slowdown in global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The expectation of inflation moderation is linked to external factors such as tariff policies [1] - Global economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the anticipated decline in inflation [1]

贸易紧张局势的迅速升级，以及极高水平的政策不确定性，预计将对全球经济活动造成重大冲击。 国际货币基金组织22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》（简称《报告》），预计2025年美国经济增速将放 缓至1.8%，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济体中下调幅度最大。报告认为，政策不确定性加剧、贸易 紧张局势以及需求势头减弱为预期目标下调主要原因。 校对： 赵燕 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 同时，《报告》将包括美国、英国和加拿大在内的发达经济体2025年的总体通胀预期上调至2.5%，较1月份的 预测上调了0.4个百分点。 《报告》还将2025年全球经济增长预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8%，2026年预计为3%。 报告指出，全球增长放缓的主要原因是美国关税政策的急剧变化及由此带来的高度政策不确定性。自2025年年 初以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴和关键行业宣布了多轮关税措施，最终在4月2日实施了几乎全面的关税。尽管目 前部分原定加征的关税已被暂停，但这些措施与反制措施叠加，使美国及全球的关税水平升至近一个世纪以来 的最高点 ...

智通财经4月14日电，德国经济部表示，全球经济增长显著放缓的风险大幅增加，这也将对德国产生影 响。 ...

德国经济部：全球经济增长显著放缓的风险大幅增加，这也将对德国产生影响。 ...