娄飞鹏 2022年以来，商业银行围绕降低负债成本采取多项措施。在利率市场化大背景下，商业银行按照市场化 原则，存款挂牌利率经历多轮下调。在存款利率下调的同时，商业银行积极取消手工补息、整治智能存 款等高息揽储行为，中间出现定期存款中，期限较短的存款利率高于期限较长的存款利率，也就是存款 利率"倒挂"的情况。特别是进入今年四季度以来，部分区域商业银行下架五年期甚至是三年期定期存 款，临近年底国有大型商业银行下架五年期大额存单或者提高大额存单购买门槛等。 从银行业的角度看，降低存款利率和下架利率较高的长期存款产品，主要是为了稳定净息差。2022年以 来，我国商业银行净息差经历快速下降。根据国家金融监管总局的统计数据，今年三季度商业银行净息 差为1.42%。就纵向比较看，商业银行净息差已经处于低位。在稳定净息差上，银行业可以从提高资产 端收益率，降低负债端成本两端发力。然而，考虑到我国经济回升向好基础仍需巩固，仍然需要降低社 会融资成本，这意味着商业银行提高资产端收益率稳定净息差的可行性较低。 在这种情况下，商业银行在资产端寻求空间的同时，需要更多从负债端考虑降低成本，从而更好地稳定 净息差。存款作为商业银行最重要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and asset expansion resilience [6][23]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins due to a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][23]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with defensive value [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - In November 2025, social financing (社融) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [10][9]. - The structure of social financing showed a decrease in RMB loans by 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand for credit [10][9]. - Government bonds decreased by 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 178.8 billion yuan [10][9]. Loan Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.4% year-on-year in November, with a total of 390 billion yuan in new loans, reflecting a decline in both household and corporate loans [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant drop, with short-term loans down by 178.8 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 290 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans increased by 281.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill discounting [14][13]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth fell to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, with the gap between M2 and M1 increasing to 3.1% [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 1.41 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with declines across all categories including household and non-bank deposits [20][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, while also considering state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for their defensive value [24][23].

中经记者 郭建杭 北京报道 银行揽储的营销活动随着年末临近持续升温。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，伴随今年存款利率多轮下调、国有大型银行集体下架五年期大额存单产品 等市场变化，中小银行在2026年"开门红"营销即将到来之际表现出更为精细化的揽储策略。不仅通过上 浮利率、发行大额存单、存款送积分等传统方式揽储，还有部分银行对存款产品设定不同起存门槛、不 同利率，以及上浮利率须满足额外限定政策等条件。 业内人士指出，银行存款利率上浮整体来看比往年更克制，而客户分层则更为细致。这既能优化存款结 构、降低整体付息成本，又能筛选出高净值客户做交叉销售。 存款利率议价再现 杭州银行（600926.SH）近期发布的限定地区专属定存产品，三年期定期产品的起购门槛分别为5万 元、20万元和50万元，对应利率水平分别为1.65%、1.75%和1.8%。 12月1日，内蒙古农商银行多家支行发布第七期金彩社保盈·存款产品公告，根据公告可知，该期产品销 售期限为12月1日至12月31日，个人存款产品分为社保卡专属和非社保卡专属两类，起存门槛也分为100 元起存和20万元起存。其中，社保卡专属的"金彩社保盈"系列产品，100元起存的一年期 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 15, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system and ensure stable financial market operations [1] - As of the end of November, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans reached 274.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - In the first eleven months, the increase in RMB loans amounted to 15.36 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has released new regulations for bank custody business, effective from February 1, 2026, outlining prohibitive responsibilities and behaviors for commercial banks [2] - Key prohibitions include not assuming credit or market risks for custody products, not providing guarantees, and not participating in investment decision-making [2] Group 3 - The bank wealth management market has reached a new high, standing at approximately 33 trillion yuan, nearing the 34 trillion yuan mark [3] - Fourteen wealth management companies with over 1 trillion yuan in assets have seen a cumulative growth of about 3.43 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, with "fixed income +" products contributing significantly [3] - In the fourth quarter alone, these companies have grown by 1.67 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the annual increase [3] Group 4 - The research interest in listed banks has surged, with 17 listed banks receiving 308 institutional research visits since the beginning of the fourth quarter [4] - The total number of research visits has reached 312, with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks being the main focus [4] - Hangzhou Bank has attracted the most research institutions, becoming the "most popular" in this round of research [4] Group 5 - Eight departments in Ningxia have jointly issued new policies for the real estate market, introducing twelve specific measures to support stable and healthy development [5] - The new policies include subsidies for newly built commercial housing and targeted subsidies for commercial properties, aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [5] Group 6 - Xu Zuo, former vice president of CITIC Group, was sentenced to life imprisonment for bribery and illegal business operations, highlighting a strict stance against financial sector corruption [6] Group 7 - Lu Hongxiao, vice president of the Gansu branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [7] Group 8 - Bank of China plans to issue two types of notes under a 40 billion USD medium-term note program, with applications for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8][9] Group 9 - The resignation of Hou Bin, risk director of Suzhou Bank, was due to age reasons, effective December 10, 2025, and is considered a normal executive adjustment [10] Group 10 - Zou Yabin, vice president of the Hong Kong branch of Industrial Bank, is proposed to become the vice president of Xingyin Wealth Management, with the management team having undergone multiple adjustments in 2025 [11]

根据央行数据，截至9 月，1 年期和 5 年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别为 3.0%和 3.5%，均同比下降 0.35 个百分点；新发放贷款加权平均利率约 3.2%，同比下降约 0.4 个百分点。 利率是资金的价格，降息意味着资金的价格越来越便宜。 不管是国际上还是国内，降息的浪潮还会继续。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，是美联储今年第3次降息，也是今年最后一次降息。 根据美联储点阵图的中值，美联储决策者预计2026年将再降息一次。不过，我认为这有点保守了。 几个月后，美联储主席将换人，新任美联储主席肯定是"忠于特朗普"、"热衷于降息"的，所以明年6月份后不排除美联储密集降息。 中国方面，本月跟着美国降息的概率比较低。目前进出口数据比较好，今年实现5%的经济增长目标压力不是太大，正式降息的窗口可能留到明年上半 年。 中国今年有过一次正式降息，频率和幅度小于美联储。虽然正式降息没有来，但银行们有在悄悄降息了。 啥意思？ LPR下调可以理解为正式的降息。与去年9月相比，LPR正式降息了35个基点。但实际上银行实际贷款利率下降了40个基点。也就是说尽管LPR没变，但 银行贷款可能有不同程度降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China is undergoing significant changes in deposit rules, with the discontinuation of five-year fixed deposits and increased thresholds for large time deposits, impacting the financial planning of ordinary citizens [1][2][3] Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and others, have completely stopped offering five-year fixed deposit products [2] - The minimum investment for three-year large time deposits has surged from 200,000 to as high as 1,000,000 or even 5,000,000 in some banks [3] - The interest rates for three-year large time deposits have dropped to between 1.5% and 1.75%, significantly lower than previous years [2][3] Group 2: Reasons Behind Changes - The primary reason for these adjustments is the pressure on net interest margins, which have fallen to 1.42%, nearing a critical profitability threshold for banks [5] - Decreasing loan interest rates and intense competition for deposits have led to reduced income from loans while maintaining high costs for deposit liabilities [5] Group 3: Impact on Ordinary Citizens - The changes have severely affected individuals with savings of 100,000 or 200,000 who relied on stable interest income from deposits [6][7] - The potential interest earned from a one-year deposit of 100,000 is approximately 950, which is insufficient for basic expenses [6] - Long-term financial planning for purposes such as retirement or education has been disrupted, with the risk of reinvestment at lower rates after three years [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "ladder deposit method" is suggested as a way to balance liquidity and returns by splitting savings into different term deposits [9] - For those with over 200,000, large time deposits can be considered, focusing on liquidity rather than high thresholds, as many products offer the same interest rate regardless of the investment amount [12] - The "new three gold" investment strategy, involving money market funds, pure bond funds, and gold, is recommended for better asset preservation and growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are disappearing from banks, leading to a significant shift in savings habits among depositors as interest rates decline sharply [1][3][5]. Group 1: Product Supply - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have stopped selling 5-year large-denomination CDs [3]. - Some banks have also ceased offering 3-year large-denomination CDs, with no clear timeline for their return [3]. - Local banks are following suit, with announcements of the cancellation of 5-year fixed-term deposits [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decline - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have dropped to the "1" range, with 3-year CDs at 1.55% for major banks [5]. - In contrast, prior to 2020, 3-year and 5-year CDs had yields above 3%, with some smaller banks offering rates close to 4% [5]. - The traditional practice of higher interest rates for larger deposit amounts has been disrupted, as the rates for different deposit amounts are now the same [5]. Group 3: Banking Strategy - The collective withdrawal of long-term large-denomination CDs is a response to the ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% by Q3 2025 [7]. - Banks aim to lower liability costs and stabilize net interest margins by reducing the supply of long-term deposits [7]. - The current low net interest margin environment compels banks to avoid high-cost long-term deposits to maintain profitability [7]. Group 4: Shift in Depositor Behavior - With the discontinuation of long-term large-denomination CDs, depositors are seeking alternative investment products, such as savings insurance, government bonds, or structured deposits [9]. - However, these alternatives come with their own limitations, such as lower liquidity for savings insurance and limited issuance for government bonds [9]. - A survey indicates an increase in residents inclined to invest more, rising by 5.6 percentage points to 18.5% [9]. Group 5: New Investment Preferences - Non-principal guaranteed bank wealth management products have become a preferred investment method among residents, with the market size reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, a 9.42% year-on-year increase [11]. - Financial advisors are recommending a diversified asset allocation strategy to improve returns and liquidity, moving away from excessive reliance on long-term deposits [11]. - Low-risk bank wealth management products are suggested as alternatives that may offer better returns than traditional deposits [11]. Group 6: Future Trends - The banking sector is expected to shift towards shorter-term products, emphasizing flexibility and a diverse range of financial products [13]. - Banks need to enhance their wealth management capabilities to maintain customer relationships and ensure stable returns [13]. - Depositors are encouraged to prioritize liquidity in their investments during a declining interest rate environment, allowing for better opportunities in the future [13].

（1）净息差底线思维的必要性：从资本平衡、盈亏平衡以及风险定价机制等角度而言，净息差维持一 个合理水平是守住经济增长和金融稳定必要条件。（2）大行净息差底线测算：首先，确定经济增速目 标以及对应的银行业总资产增速。预计"十五五"期间名义GDP增速为6.0%~6.9%，对应的M2增速需要维 持在约7.0%~8.0%；根据M2派生方式，银行业总资产扩张速度约6.0%~7.0%。然后，资本角度测算，大 行ROE底线约7%~8%，据此测算净息差底线约1.2%~1.3%。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年净息差降幅大幅收敛，并且大概率是此轮净息差下行 周期尾声，这与前两年行业净息差普遍下行且底线不确定形成了鲜明的对比。2026年聚焦两条主线，一 是净息差率先迎来拐点的优质个股以及改善幅度较大的低估值个股，二是绝对收益角度，积极布局股息 率具有吸引力的基本面稳健个股。 国信证券主要观点如下： 目前大行净息差底线水平约1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近 （1）2026年降息需要精准审慎："合理充裕+相机抉择"的总基调是"战略适配、现实约束、工具支撑"三 大维度综合考量的最优选择。目前净息差和存款利率都已进入 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Industrial Bank Company Overview - **Company**: Industrial Bank (兴业银行) - **Date**: December 4, 2025 Key Points Industry and Loan Structure - Industrial Bank continues to optimize its corporate loan structure, reducing real estate loans while increasing loans in green technology and manufacturing sectors, with growth rates significantly above the overall level. The expected annual increase in corporate loans is around 300 billion [2][3][7] - The bank's retail business strategy is cautious, focusing on risk control and genuine demand, leading to a negative growth of 400 billion in credit card balances and declines in mortgage and consumer loans [2][3][8] Risk Management - The bank maintains controllable risks in corporate real estate financing, with a year-on-year decline in non-performing loans (NPLs). 90% of loans have corresponding projects or collateral, indicating a positive trend in risk management [2][13] - The risk from local government financing platforms has shifted from high incidence to convergence, with no new NPLs reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][14][15] Interest Margin and Profitability - The bank anticipates a narrowing decline in net interest margin (NIM) by 2026, benefiting from the replacement of high-cost time deposits and reduced loan repricing pressure. However, asset yield risks remain a concern [2][15][16] Credit Strategy for 2026 - For 2026, the bank plans to focus on market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and establish a private equity investment subsidiary to support technological innovation and new productivity [4][19] - The bank aims to explore high-quality asset construction opportunities in public utilities and strategic leading enterprises to achieve higher comprehensive benefits [5][6] Sector Performance - In 2025, the technology sector accounted for approximately 70% of new loan increments, indicating strong growth potential [7] - The bank's mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is around 45%, which is considered reasonable, with a positive trend in risk exposure in the mortgage sector [10][12] Retail Business Adjustments - The reduction in credit card and consumer loan balances is attributed to a strategic shift towards genuine demand and risk management, with a cautious outlook on retail risks [8][9] Future Outlook - The bank expects stable overall NPL rates in key sectors, with a focus on maintaining a stable credit environment and managing risks effectively [15][19] - The bank's middle-income growth is projected to continue, with a focus on wealth management and capital market activities [21] Capital Adequacy and Convertible Bonds - The bank is preparing to apply for advanced risk measurement methods to enhance risk management and capital efficiency. It has a significant amount of convertible bonds pending conversion, which is expected to positively impact capital adequacy [22][23] Dividend Policy - The bank has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed dividends significantly above the average since its listing. It plans to maintain and gradually increase its dividend payout ratio [24] Additional Important Insights - The bank's proactive measures in managing high-cost deposits and optimizing asset allocation are crucial for maintaining stability amid regulatory pressures [17][18] - The focus on technology finance and the establishment of the AIC business are strategic moves to enhance the bank's competitive edge in emerging sectors [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing challenges due to narrowing net interest margins, with the net interest margin recorded at 1.43%, 1.42%, and 1.42% for the first three quarters of the year, indicating a need for transformation towards diversified revenue sources and value-driven strategies [1][2] Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Revenue Structure - The net interest margin is at historical lows, prompting banks to adjust their asset-liability management and revenue structures to overcome profitability challenges [1] - Non-interest income has been gradually increasing, particularly through investment income, which has become a key driver for banks in a declining interest rate environment [1] - The proportion of loans in total assets has risen from 45% at the end of 2016 to 58% by the end of 2024, reflecting effective asset structure adjustments [1] Group 2: Credit Allocation and Loan Growth - Recent policies have directed bank credit towards technology, green, and inclusive finance sectors, which are expected to yield stable returns, optimizing the loan allocation structure [1] - Loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises, green projects, and technology-oriented SMEs have been growing faster than total loan growth, with technology loans leading since 2025 [1] Group 3: Liability Structure and Deposit Management - Deposits remain a cornerstone for banks, with their proportion in total liabilities stabilizing around 81% by the end of 2024, aided by ongoing financial deleveraging [2] - Banks are adjusting deposit term structures to manage liability costs, including controlling long-term deposit interest rates and implementing quota restrictions [2] Group 4: Business Strategies for Revenue Enhancement - Banks are focusing on wealth management by creating a "product supermarket" to diversify offerings and enhance customer loyalty, thereby increasing revenue contributions [3] - Customized payment and settlement services are being developed to serve clients' supply chain needs, facilitating bulk customer acquisition [3] - In the capital market, banks are adjusting trading strategies and may invest in overseas high-yield bonds to address asset shortages [3] - Investment banking services are being sought in both domestic and international markets, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy support, such as technology [3]