央广网北京1月13日消息（记者 冯方）近日，在"2026京东财富和TA的朋友们"大会上，中国社会科学院 学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬发表主题演讲，系统阐述了中国货币金融环境的新变化与 中长期趋势，对如何为"十五五"提供适配的货币金融环境建言。李扬认为，当前货币金融环境正发生着 融资结构调整、利率下行、货币政策范式演进的三大重要变化。 融资结构发生深刻变化 "脱媒"为资本市场发展提供了必要条件 李扬表示，"降低间接融资比重、提高直接融资比重"是金融改革和发展的重要目标之一，其中降低间接 融资比重的目标已初步实现，但提高直接融资比重还有待努力。 货币政策范式转变 开始关注资产市场 李扬认为，当实体经济的金融化达到一定程度，以至于资产价格的波动会影响实体经济主体资产负债表 的均衡关系，进而造成宏观经济波动，货币政策就应当将资产价格的波动纳入视野。正是基于这样一些 认识，自上世纪90年代以来，在金融领域出现了一系列理论和政策创新——在理论上，资产负债表衰 退、通货紧缩、金融加速器原理等是最主要的进展；在政策工具上，诸如量化宽松（QE）、超低利率 乃至负利率，则是最显著者。 李扬指出，我国货币政策适时调整， ...

近日，在"2026京东财富和TA的朋友们"大会上，中国社会科学院学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬发表主 题演讲，系统阐述了中国货币金融环境的新变化与中长期趋势，为"十五五"提供适配的货币金融环境。 李扬认为当前货币金融环境正发生着融资结构调整、利率下行、货币政策范式演进的三大重要变化。 融资结构发生深刻变化 "脱媒"为资本市场发展提供了必要条件 李扬指出，我们孜孜以求的"降低间接融资比重、提高直接融资比重"的金融改革和发展的重要目标之一，其中降低间 接融资比重的目标已初步实现，但提高直接融资比重还有待努力。 李扬教授展示了一组关键数据：从2015年底到2025年11月底的10年间，我国社会融资总量从127.68万亿元增加至 440.07万亿元，十年提升2.45倍。同期，包括人民币贷款、外币贷款、委托贷款和未贴现银行承兑汇票等在内的间接 融资规模，则从110.55亿元增加至286.77亿元，十年提升1.59倍。显然，后者提升速度落后于前者。这种增速的差距， 导致间接融资占社会融资总量之比，从2015年的86%下降至2025年的65.1%，十年降低21个百分点。李扬认为，这意 味着，"降低间接融资比重"的 ...

与国有行相比，中小银行在大额存单利率上的优势已不再显著。以工商银行为例，其3个月、6个月、1年、2年及3年期大额存单利率分别为0.90%、 1.10%、1.2%、1.2%和1.55%，与部分中小银行同期产品利率差距较小。 曾经靠高息吸引储户的大额存单，如今已全面进入"1字头"时代，部分中小银行甚至出现"0字头"产品。 中国货币网显示，已有多家银行披露2026年个人大额存单发行公告，记者梳理发现，不仅2%以上的大额存单难觅踪迹，部分中小银行产品利率甚至跌破 1%。此外，大额存单的期限结构呈现明显的短期化趋势，部分银行仅发行1年期及以内的短期品种。 部分产品利率跌破1% 目前，银行发行的大额存单利率普遍处于较低水平，多数在1%-2%。 例如，山东金乡农商行于1月9日发行的2026年第1期个人大额存单，3个月、1年、2年及3年期利率依次为1.2%、1.5%、1.55%和1.75%。珠海农商行将于1 月12日20点发行3个月、6个月及1年期大额存单，利率分别为1.35%、1.5%和1.6%。 | 发行要素 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发行人 ...

曾经靠高息吸引储户的大额存单，如今已全面进入"1字头"时代，部分中小银行甚至出现"0字头"产品。 山东金乡农商行2026年第1期个人大额存单一年期发行要素公告 值得注意的是，部分中小银行的大额存单利率已跌破1%，如云南腾冲农商行1月7日发行的3个月期产品利率仅为0.95%。 与国有行相比，中小银行在大额存单利率上的优势已不再显著。以工商银行为例，其3个月、6个月、1年、2年及3年期大额存单利率分别为0.90%、 1.10%、1.2%、1.2%和1.55%，与部分中小银行同期产品利率差距较小。 此外，大额存单的期限结构呈现明显的短期化趋势。市场上已难寻5年期产品，部分银行甚至仅发行1年期及以内的短期品种。例如，云南宾川农商行在1 月7日发行的大额存单产品，只涵盖了3个月、6个月和1年期这三个期限。 中国货币网显示，已有多家银行披露2026年个人大额存单发行公告，记者梳理发现，不仅2%以上的大额存单难觅踪迹，部分中小银行产品利率甚至跌破 1%。此外，大额存单的期限结构呈现明显的短期化趋势，部分银行仅发行1年期及以内的短期品种。 部分产品利率跌破1% 目前，银行发行的大额存单利率普遍处于较低水平，多数在1%-2%。 ...

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - Recent policies have led to a rebound in economic expectations, with December construction PMI rising by 3.2 points to 52.8%[5] - December manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 50.1%, marking the first return to the 50% line since March of the previous year[5] - The expected economic growth rate for 2025 is around 5%, with a slight increase in the likelihood of a strong start in Q1 2026[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The U.S. economy is expected to rebound due to the end of government shutdowns and a cumulative 75bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve since September 2025[5] - Anticipation of Trump's visit to China in April may enhance market risk appetite through increased diplomatic engagement[5] - The midterm elections are likely to lead to more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, supporting U.S. stock markets throughout the year[5] Equity Market Viewpoints - A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally, driven by liquidity expectations and positive sentiment from overseas markets[5] - The AI industry chain remains a key focus, with investments in hardware, storage, and applications like robotics expected to grow[5] - Industries that have not fully launched yet, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and gaming, may also see new market opportunities[5] Bond Market Viewpoints - Interest rates are expected to slightly decline after the New Year, with 10-year rates potentially returning to around 1.80%[6] - Concerns about fiscal expansion and new regulations on public fund redemptions have eased, contributing to a more stable bond market outlook[6] Currency Market Viewpoints - The RMB has appreciated against the USD, with the onshore and offshore rates breaking the 7.0 mark due to seasonal demand and policy adjustments[9] - The RMB is expected to maintain an upward trend in January, supported by pre-Spring Festival settlement demand, but may stabilize in February[9] Quantitative Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for growth-oriented ETFs in the A-share market, with specific recommendations for various sectors[10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with banks redeeming high-cost preferred shares and issuing perpetual bonds as a more cost-effective financing alternative, driven by declining social financing costs and regulatory changes [2][4][11]. Group 1: Redemption of Preferred Shares - By the end of 2025, a total of 9 banks announced the redemption of preferred shares, amounting to 111.8 billion RMB in domestic preferred shares and 5.72 billion USD in foreign preferred shares [4]. - In December 2025 alone, five banks, including Changsha Bank and Beijing Bank, redeemed a total of 45.8 billion RMB in preferred shares [3]. - The redemption of preferred shares is facilitated by their lack of maturity dates but includes redemption clauses, allowing banks to manage capital flexibly [4]. Group 2: Issuance of Perpetual Bonds - As of December 31, 2025, Chinese commercial banks issued 69 perpetual bonds, raising a total of 821.8 billion RMB, marking a historical high in both issuance quantity and scale [5]. - The interest rates for newly issued perpetual bonds generally ranged from 2.0% to 2.9%, the lowest in nearly three years, with a significant issuance peak occurring in the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - The issuance of perpetual bonds is seen as a response to the urgent need for capital replenishment, especially among small and medium-sized banks facing declining capital adequacy ratios [2][6]. Group 3: Cost Savings and Financial Efficiency - By replacing preferred shares with perpetual bonds, banks can save at least 3% annually on interest expenses, significantly reducing their financing costs [8][10]. - For instance, the interest rate on newly issued perpetual bonds is substantially lower than that of previously issued preferred shares, with examples showing potential annual savings of 12.8 million RMB for banks like Industrial Bank [10]. - The transition from preferred shares to perpetual bonds is viewed as a strategic move to optimize capital structure and reduce interest payment burdens, aligning with regulatory requirements [8][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - The shift towards perpetual bonds is influenced by regulatory changes that favor capital instruments with loss absorption capabilities, making traditional preferred shares less attractive [11]. - The approval process for issuing perpetual bonds is simpler and faster compared to preferred shares, which require dual regulatory approvals, thus enhancing their appeal to banks [11]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is expected to persist, allowing banks to lock in low financing costs for the next 5 to 10 years, effectively mitigating the pressure from narrowing net interest margins [10].

Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a historic year for precious metal investors, with gold prices locked in over 60% annual gains due to declining U.S. interest rates, central bank reserve adjustments, and geopolitical risk premiums [1] - Gold reached a historical high of $4,549.71/oz this week, with an annual increase of 64%, making it the strongest year for gold since 1979 [3] - The Federal Reserve's three rate cuts this year have effectively reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, while expectations for continued rate cuts in 2026 are providing long-term bullish momentum for gold prices [3] Group 2 - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases have become a significant support for gold prices, as many countries are increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on a single currency [3] - Silver and platinum have shown remarkable performance this year, with silver prices soaring nearly 150% due to industrial demand from green energy transitions, and platinum rising over 110% due to supply shortages [3] - Despite some profit-taking behavior from investors in the short term, the value of precious metals as a hedge against risk and inflation remains irreplaceable, with continued ETF inflows expected [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant changes in the deposit market in China, highlighting a shift from traditional savings to diversified asset allocations due to a low-interest-rate environment [2][3][7]. Group 1: Deposit Market Changes - By the end of 2025, traditional high-interest three-year and five-year fixed deposits are becoming scarce, with rates generally dropping to the "1" range [2]. - A wave of interest rate cuts has been observed across various banks, with state-owned banks leading the way, followed by smaller banks that have implemented more frequent and larger cuts [3][5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with residents moving funds from traditional deposits to wealth management, insurance, and gold [2][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - As of May 20, 2025, six major state-owned banks reduced their deposit rates, with three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates cut by 25 basis points [3]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed, with the average net interest margin reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q3 2025, marking a historical low [5]. Group 3: Impact on Asset Allocation - Data shows that from January to November 2025, the growth of residents' fixed deposits has significantly slowed, leading to a decrease in their share of total financial assets [6]. - The interaction between non-bank institutions and residents' deposits has increased market activity, indicating a trend towards diversified asset allocation [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the trend of "deposit migration" expected to continue [7]. - It is anticipated that approximately 2-4 trillion yuan will flow into non-fixed deposit investment areas in 2026, reflecting a shift in residents' savings behavior [7]. Group 5: Banking Strategies - Different banking institutions are expected to adopt varied strategies in 2026, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may be more sensitive to deposit rates [8]. - Banks are encouraged to innovate product designs and improve service levels to enhance the proportion of short-term deposits, while also implementing a differentiated pricing system based on customer contributions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous appreciation of the RMB against the USD has diminished the attractiveness of USD deposits, leading to a situation where investors face challenges in balancing interest rate fluctuations and exchange rate changes [1][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points [2]. - Most major state-owned and joint-stock banks have seen USD deposit rates drop below 3%, entering the "2" range, with rates generally between 0.2% and 0.8% for terms from one month to two years [6]. - Some banks, like Bank of Communications, offer slightly higher rates, with one-month USD deposits at 0.2% and rates for three months to two years ranging from 2.3% to 2.8% [6]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Impact - The RMB has appreciated over 4% against the USD since the beginning of the year, with a significant rise of 1.7% in the last 60 days, compressing the yield on USD deposits [8]. - The strong appreciation of the RMB means that investors may face substantial exchange losses when converting back to RMB, potentially offsetting the interest earned on USD deposits [8]. - Experts warn that the rapid appreciation of the RMB could prompt the central bank to take measures, and they advise against speculative behavior regarding exchange rate trends [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Considerations - Investors are advised to prioritize actual USD usage needs and avoid blindly pursuing high nominal interest rates [9]. - Careful selection of financial products is recommended, balancing safety and yield, while maintaining a risk-neutral approach to manage exchange rate risks [9].

Core Insights - As 2026 approaches, there is a sense of optimism due to a resilient consumer base and strong earnings in 2025, setting a positive tone for the upcoming year [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly around artificial intelligence (AI), is expected to continue leading the market, although there are concerns about current valuations being priced for perfection [3][4] Market Trends - There is an anticipated broadening of investment opportunities across various sectors as opposed to the narrow focus on technology seen in recent years [5] - Real estate, which has been underperforming, presents potential investment opportunities as market conditions normalize [6] - The banking sector may also offer opportunities as the yield curve begins to stabilize [6] Sector Analysis - The energy sector is viewed positively, although there are concerns regarding policy shifts that may impact renewable energy projects [7][8] - Small and mid-cap stocks may see increased activity, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, as interest rates decline [10] - International markets are considered essential for a diversified portfolio, with potential opportunities expected in 2026 despite the complexities of global trade dynamics [12][13]