大摩称，本季以来，主动基金增持最多的板块是传媒与娱乐、制药和保险，减持最多的是消费服务、耐 用消费品与服装。从个股看，腾讯(00700)、网易(09999)、恒瑞医药(01276)和药明康德(02359)获增持最 多，美团(03690)和小米(01810)减持最多。 大摩报告表示，7月外资净流入达27亿美元，高于6月的12亿美元。截至7月31日，今年以来境外被动型 资金累计流入达110亿美元，超过2024年全年70亿美元的水平，境外主动型资金累计流出达110亿美元， 也低于2024年全年。 智通财经APP获悉，大摩表示，外资基金7月加速净流入中国股市，其中被动型基金流入39亿美元，主 动型基金则流出12亿美元。被动型基金主要集中在月底入场，恰逢多项"反内卷"政策发布。 大摩表示，7月南向资金流入港股进一步提速至170亿美元，高于6月的100亿美元。今年前7个月累计净 流入达1100亿美元，超过2024年全年的1030亿美元。 ...

以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 财经大事早知道，关注东方财富股票！ 免责声明 7月25日，港股市场回调，南向资金加速流入。据东方财富Choice数据，当日南向资金净买入201.84亿 港元，年内累计净买入已超8200亿港元（约7638亿元），刷新2024年的纪录8079亿港元（约7470亿 元），再创历史新高。 个股方面，以今年的成交均价估算，阿里巴巴最受南向资金青睐，年内净买入720亿港元，持股市值 1852亿港元。不过，相比于5月中旬创下的峰值875亿港元，近两个月南向累计净卖出阿里超150亿港 元。年内累计涨幅也从当时的56%收窄至最新的46%。 其次是美团，年内南向资金累计净买入506亿港元，持股市值超1316亿港元。虽然获南向爆买，但由于 外卖补贴大战影响，美团今年股价下跌了14%。高盛预计，此轮外卖配送大战或持续更长时间，未来一 年美团的EBIT（息税前利润）将减少250亿元。 建设银行第三，年内南向资金累计净买入453亿港元，持股市值超2784亿港元。今年以来，南向资金持 续加仓建行，持股数从年初的不足265亿股升至最新的近331亿股，增幅近25%。建行股价也逐步走高， 今年累计上涨约3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to have a strong start in the first half of 2025, driven by AI technology revaluation and supported by sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [1] - Financial and technology sectors are the most favored by the market, with southbound funds focusing on financials, particularly banks, and diversifying into information technology and communication services [1] - Foreign investment preferences lean towards financials, discretionary consumption, and information technology, indicating a structural bull market resilience in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB and continuous inflow of southbound funds are crucial supports for the market, with the financial sector being attractive to insurance capital due to its low volatility and high dividend characteristics [1] - The technology growth sector benefits from reduced financing costs, suggesting a favorable environment for growth [1] - Long-term, Hong Kong stocks are seen as core assets in RMB, with significant potential for narrowing the "country risk premium" and increasing domestic pricing power, which will amplify revaluation heights [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which consists of 50 large companies listed in Hong Kong that meet Stock Connect eligibility, reflecting the performance of quality Hong Kong stocks available for investment through the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index covers multiple industries, focusing on key areas such as finance, information technology, and consumption, demonstrating strong market representation and liquidity [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF Initiated Link A (014689) and Link C (014690) [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on a dual-layer selection process that integrates fundamental and technical analysis. It aims to identify stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[13][14]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings revisions, initial analyst coverage, and positive surprises in research report titles. 2. **Dual-Layer Screening**: - **Fundamental Screening**: Select stocks with strong fundamental support. - **Technical Screening**: Identify stocks with technical resonance. 3. **Portfolio Backtesting**: The backtesting period spans from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025. The portfolio assumes a fully invested position and accounts for transaction costs. **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index over the backtesting period[14]. - **Model Name**: Stable New High Stock Screening **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages momentum and trend-following strategies, focusing on stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high. The approach emphasizes the effectiveness of momentum effects in the Hong Kong market[19]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day High Distance Calculation**: $ 250\text{-Day High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ - $\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}$: Latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days - A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values represent the percentage drop from the high[21]. 2. **Screening Criteria**: - **Analyst Attention**: At least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past six months. - **Relative Strength**: Top 20% in 250-day price change within the stock universe. - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on price path smoothness and new high persistence over the past 120 days. The top 50% (minimum 50 stocks) are selected. - **Trend Continuation**: Stocks are ranked based on the average 250-day high distance over the past five days, with the top 50 selected[22]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with stable upward trends, making it a useful tool for momentum-based strategies[19][22]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.11% - **Excess Return (vs. Hang Seng Index)**: 18.48% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22 - **Tracking Error**: 14.55% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 250-Day High Distance **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the proximity of a stock's latest closing price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[21]. **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ 250\text{-Day High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ - $\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}$: Latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days - Interpretation: A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values represent the percentage drop from the high[21]. **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is effective in identifying stocks with strong momentum, particularly in the Hong Kong market[19][21]. Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day High Distance Factor**: - **Top Performing Sector**: Healthcare (16 stocks identified) - **Other Sectors**: Financials (11 stocks), Consumer (9 stocks), Technology (9 stocks), Cyclical (4 stocks)[22][27]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 201.84 billion HKD on July 25, with 114.74 billion HKD from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 87.1 billion HKD from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Year-to-date, the total net purchase reached 8200.28 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total of 8079 billion HKD, marking a historical high for the same period [1][2] - Southbound funds have been net buyers of Hong Kong stocks for 25 consecutive months, with expectations of exceeding 1 trillion HKD in net inflows for the year. The focus of these investments has been on internet leaders, pharmaceuticals, banks, and insurance companies [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 26.56% year-to-date, leading global major indices, driven by active market conditions and abundant liquidity. Southbound funds now account for approximately 35% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market [2][3] Group 2 - Recent purchases by southbound funds have included significant stakes in internet companies like Kuaishou-W and Meitu, with Kuaishou-W holdings increasing by 23.47 million shares since early July. Goldman Sachs has noted Kuaishou-W's strong fundamentals in advertising and e-commerce, along with its leading AI capabilities [3] - The AH premium index fell to 123.4 points on July 25, the lowest since June 2020, with a year-to-date decline of over 13%. The continuous inflow of southbound funds is a key factor driving the Hong Kong stock market and influencing sector trends [3] - The narrowing of the AH premium is attributed to the revaluation of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds, particularly the preference of southbound insurance capital for high dividend stocks, indicating a potential continuation of this trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant inflows from southbound capital, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 28% in the Hang Seng Index, driven by foreign investors reassessing the value of Chinese assets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reassessment - Foreign capital is returning to China, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3]. - South Korean investors have traded over $5.4 billion in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year, making China their second-largest overseas investment destination after the U.S. [3]. - The shift in global capital allocation is influenced by uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and rising debt burdens, prompting investors to move funds from traditional safe-haven assets to Asian markets [4]. Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has reached a net inflow of approximately 7998.45 billion HKD this year, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [6]. - Since the launch of the Stock Connect program, cumulative net inflows from southbound capital into the Hong Kong market have approached 4.5 trillion HKD [6]. - The increasing demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong stocks is supported by narratives around AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have recorded year-to-date increases of 27.95%, 28.53%, and 26.99%, respectively [11]. - Key sectors such as healthcare, finance, and communication services have seen significant gains, with increases of 62.10%, 51.28%, and 48.01% respectively [11]. - Individual stocks like China Biologic Products and Chow Tai Fook have surged over 100% this year, indicating strong market performance [13]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite the current gains, many companies in the Hong Kong market still exhibit low price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential for further growth [13]. - The influx of capital, supportive policies, and a strong "profit-making effect" are expected to drive the market upward [14]. - Potential opportunities in the second half of the year include sectors focused on domestic demand, technological innovation, and industries with strong comparative advantages in exports [14].

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 11, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 1.744 billion HKD from northbound trading, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net outflow of 2.197 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a net inflow of 3.941 billion HKD [1] - The most bought stocks by northbound investors included Meituan-W (03690), Ping An of China (02318), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) [1] - The most sold stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Alibaba-W (09988), and Tencent (00700) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of 715 million HKD, while Alibaba-W (09988) faced a net outflow of 183 million HKD [4] - Ping An of China (02318) saw a net inflow of 523 million HKD, benefiting from the Ministry of Finance's enhanced long-term assessments for state-owned commercial insurance companies [5] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) experienced a net inflow of 255 million HKD, supported by continued inflows from southbound funds and increased IPO activity [5] Group 3: Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw net inflows, with Zhongzhou Securities (01375) and Guotai Junan (02611) receiving net inflows of 183 million HKD and 2.06 million HKD, respectively [6] - The IPO market remains robust, with June seeing 150 IPO applications, accounting for 85% of the total for the first half of the year [6] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a significant net outflow of 738 million HKD, despite reporting over 300,000 cumulative deliveries of its electric vehicles [6]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen significant activity in June, with 15 new listings raising a net amount of HKD 26.559 billion, and over 200 companies queued for IPOs [1] - In the first half of the year, the Hong Kong IPO market raised over HKD 107 billion, ranking first globally, with a 22% increase compared to the total amount raised in the previous year [2] - Major IPOs, such as CATL's listing, which raised approximately HKD 35.5 billion, have driven the market's resurgence [2] Group 2 - The influx of mainland companies seeking secondary listings in Hong Kong has contributed to the market's growth, driven by the need for international expansion and capital [3] - Hong Kong's capital market has implemented various measures to facilitate listings, including simplified processes for A-share companies [4] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 20% in the first half of the year, indicating strong market performance, with significant inflows of southbound capital totaling over HKD 730 billion [5] Group 3 - The market outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with around 200 IPO applications received, reflecting increased interest from both local and international companies [6] - Anticipated policy adjustments, such as changes to H-share public holding requirements and flexible pricing mechanisms, could further enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market for new listings [6]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a new focus for capital, with over 20 billion yuan flowing into Hong Kong-themed ETFs since June, leading to record high shares for several ETFs [2][3] - Major public funds are optimistic about the long-term investment value of the Hong Kong market and plan to increase their allocations [2][4] - As of July 3, 2023, the net subscription amount for Hong Kong-themed ETFs reached 209.68 billion yuan, with significant inflows into sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and dividends [3][4] Group 2 - Southbound capital has become a crucial support for the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of over 690 billion yuan this year, nearly double that of the same period last year [5][6] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of the year was driven by the revaluation of Chinese technology assets, substantial southbound capital inflows, and the market being in a valuation trough [6][7] - Future investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market are expected to focus on policy support, technological iterations, and capital allocation preferences, particularly in technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend assets [7]

Core Insights - Southbound capital has significantly increased its presence in the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflows exceeding 730 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high for multiple indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 18.68%, ranking among the top global indices [2]. - In the first half of the year, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 731.19 billion HKD, the highest for the same period historically, second only to the full-year figure of 807.87 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. - Southbound capital has shown a "buy the dip" strategy, with 30 trading days seeing net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, even on days when the Hang Seng Index declined [3]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume of southbound capital has increased significantly, with its share of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market rising from 2.98% in 2015 to over 43.12% in the first five months of this year [4]. - In April, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 166.67 billion HKD, the second-highest monthly inflow in history [2]. Group 3: Policy Support - The increase in southbound capital allocation to Hong Kong stocks is supported by policy measures, including the expansion of eligible stocks for the Stock Connect programs and the extension of tax incentives until 2027 [4]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The banking sector has seen significant increases in holdings by southbound capital, with major banks like China Construction Bank and HSBC among the top beneficiaries [6]. - The Hang Seng Index for mainland Chinese banks rose by 25.94% in the first half of the year, outperforming other key indices [6]. Group 5: Valuation Opportunities - "A+H" bank stocks are attracting southbound capital due to their lower valuations and higher dividend yields in the Hong Kong market compared to their A-share counterparts [7]. - Among 15 "A+H" bank stocks, 13 have A-share premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong preference for H-shares due to their relative value [7].