Core Viewpoint - Japan's government has clearly stated its intention to resist the U.S. efforts to form an "economic cooperation mechanism to contain China," emphasizing that it will not compromise its economic relationship with China for the sake of negotiations with the U.S. [1] Economic and Trade Relations - China has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with a trade volume expected to reach $370 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of Japan's total foreign trade [2] - Japan's exports to China primarily consist of technology-intensive industries such as automobiles and semiconductor equipment, while China is a crucial source of rare earths and electronic components for Japan, with rare earths making up 60% of imports and electronic components 40% of Japan's supply chain [4] - Japanese automakers like Honda and Toyota derive 35% of their global profits from the Chinese market, indicating that a withdrawal from China could result in annual losses exceeding $40 billion for Japan's automotive industry [4] Strategic Resource Dependency - China controls 70% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is vital for Japan's electronics, high-end manufacturing, and defense industries [6] - Japan's precision instruments and core components are deeply embedded in China's manufacturing supply chain, creating an inseparable interdependence between the two nations [6] Japan's Refusal to Choose Sides - Japan faces significant economic constraints, with government debt totaling 300 trillion yen (approximately 300 billion USD) and a projected GDP growth rate of only 1.2% in 2024. The trade surplus with China, expected to reach $32 billion in 2024, is crucial for Japan's foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic stability [10] - Despite being a U.S. ally, Japan adopts a pragmatic approach in strategic coordination, exemplified by its "differentiated execution" strategy in chip export controls, allowing exports of mature process chips to China to maintain its industrial competitiveness [10] - Japanese companies have invested over $1.3 trillion in China, creating 1.5 million jobs, with major corporations like Toyota and Sony pressuring the government to ensure stable market access to China [10] Global Implications - Japan's stance highlights the limits of alliance relationships when core economic interests are at stake, revealing inherent contradictions in unilateral alliance systems [11] - The deep economic interdependence between China and Japan demonstrates the resilience of globalized supply chains, suggesting that forced decoupling could lead to a lose-lose situation [11] - In the context of intensifying great power competition, smaller nations are increasingly adopting a "multi-balancing" strategy to maintain strategic autonomy [11] Future Outlook and Challenges - Japan's ability to maintain its "balancing act" will depend on effectively addressing strategic differences with the U.S. and structural conflicts with China [11] - Potential U.S. pressure through increased tariffs or security issues may force Japan to make difficult choices, while competition in sectors like semiconductors and new energy could pose new challenges to economic relations [11] - For China, continuing to expand openness and strengthen its advantages in key areas of the supply chain, particularly in rare earth processing and new energy markets, remains essential for navigating external changes [11]

泷田洋一：中国为顺差，美国为逆差状态，按理说提高关税应该对出口额较多的中国伤害较 大，但实际上，美国却显得更为窘迫。日益激烈的中美贸易战的赢家到底是哪一方？这是金 融和股市最关心的问题…… 泷田洋一 ： 特朗普关税大砲的主要目标是中国。日益激烈的中美贸易战的赢家到底是哪 一方？这是金融和股市最关心的问题。反映市场评价的中美股市的走势令人关注。 在特朗普就任美国总统的前一个交易日1月17日，纽约道琼斯工业平均指数为43487点，但 3个月后的4月17日为39142点，下跌了10％。另一方面，上海综合指数从3241点上涨至3280 点，虽然幅度只有1％多，但出现了上涨。 中美之间的关税交锋对美国造成的负担可能比中国更重。特朗普针对智能手机采取的关税 政策颠三倒四，先是声称将智能手机排除在关税措施之外，但话音未落就改口对其征收其他 关税，这就是典型的例子。 在中美贸易往来中，中国为顺差，美国为逆差状态。也就是说，中国的出口额高于美国的 出口额。按理说，提高关税应该对出口额较多的中国伤害较大，但实际上，美国却显得更为 窘迫。 原因是从智能手机到芭比娃娃，美国已经离不开中国产品了。据英国《金融时报》报道， 中国产品在2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting concerns over rising prices and inflation for both businesses and consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Economy - California has become the first state to sue the Trump administration over tariffs, claiming they are illegal and causing economic chaos [1]. - Professor Nick Vyas warns that the tariffs will increase the cost of imported goods, leading to price and inflation pressures on U.S. businesses and consumers [1][3]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that U.S. tariffs are severely deteriorating global trade prospects, with a projected 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, and a 12.6% drop in North American exports [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Labor Market - Vyas expresses skepticism about the return of labor-intensive industries to the U.S. due to high labor costs, even in the medium to long term [3][4]. - He suggests that capital-intensive industries, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, are more likely to thrive in the U.S. due to their reliance on advanced manufacturing and technology [3]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Effects - Tariffs are not only affecting the U.S. economy but also have profound implications for global supply chains, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 245% [5]. - Vyas indicates that sustained high tariffs could lead to significant challenges for global economic growth, potentially being the largest challenge since World War II [6]. - The "friend-shoring" policy introduced during the Biden administration aims to limit supply chain outsourcing to trusted countries, but the current tariff situation undermines this strategy [6]. Group 4: Regional Economic Impact - Southeast Asian countries are particularly affected by the tariffs, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff and Cambodia even higher at 49% [6]. - Vyas notes that high tariffs will weaken global competitiveness and force companies to seek new trade routes or relocate production [7].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy, after over three decades of stagnation, appears to be showing signs of recovery, with rising property prices and a rebounding stock market, but the underlying issues that led to its previous decline remain critical for future growth [3][27]. Group 1: Economic Stagnation and Recovery - Japan's economy has been stagnant since the early 1990s, transitioning from a "lost decade" to "lost decades," with minimal growth in GDP and productivity [2][6]. - Since 2016, property prices in Japan have been slowly increasing, particularly in major cities, with Tokyo's tower prices expected to rise nearly 30% by 2024 [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant recovery, surpassing 38,000 points in early 2024, marking a historical high [3]. Group 2: Technological Decline - Japan was once a leader in technology and innovation, but has fallen behind in adopting new technologies, particularly in the smartphone market, where it has lost ground to companies like Apple and Samsung [7][9]. - The decline in Japan's technological leadership is attributed to conservative corporate cultures and a reluctance to embrace new processes, leading to stagnation in productivity [21][22]. Group 3: Demographic Challenges - Japan faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which have contributed to a shrinking workforce and economic stagnation [12][19]. - The labor force participation rate has only slightly decreased, but the potential for increasing working hours is limited due to existing long working hours [11][19]. Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - Japan's housing market has remained relatively affordable compared to other major cities, attributed to less restrictive development regulations, allowing for a greater supply of affordable housing [14][15]. - The historical context of Japan's real estate bubble and subsequent crash has shaped current housing prices, with many households now free from mortgage burdens, potentially increasing disposable income [26][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The end of the long-standing mortgage burdens from the bubble era is expected to provide a boost to consumer spending, with a projected 2.7% increase in household consumption by the end of 2024 [27]. - Global investors, including Warren Buffett, have shown renewed interest in Japan, indicating potential for long-term investment growth in the country [27][28].