从存量结构看，4月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的61.9%，同比低0.9 个百分点；政府债券余额占比20.3%，同比高2.1个百分点；企业债券余额占比7.7%，同比低0.4个百分 点。 从增量看，2025年前四个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。其中，对 实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元，同比多增3397亿元；政府债券净融资4.85万亿元，同比多 增3.58万亿元；企业债券净融资7591亿元，同比少4095亿元。4月当月，社会融资规模新增1.16万亿元。 分析人士表示，政府债券发行加快是前四个月社融最主要的拉动因素。今年财政预算赤字率提高至 4%，计划新增国债、特别国债、地方专项债等政府债券近12万亿元，规模创历史新高。发行节奏上， 年初以来国债、地方专项债发行进度也明显快于往年，用于化债的2万亿元特殊再融资专项债也发行了 约70%。近期财政部还启动了支持"两重""两新"的1.3万亿元特别国债，预计后续特别国债的发行进度仍 会保持较快速度，促进拉动需求，提振社会信心，对社融形成有力支撑。 上述分析人士进一步指出，还原地方债务置换影响后，信 ...

Group 1 - The central bank reported that by the end of April, the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8%, indicating a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [1][4] - The increase in social financing scale was primarily driven by accelerated government bond issuance, with a net financing of over 5 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3] - The issuance of special government bonds and local government special refinancing bonds has been ongoing, with a net financing of about 970 billion yuan in April alone, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in the social financing growth rate [2][3] Group 2 - The M2 growth rate was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year, with the M2 balance reaching 325.17 trillion yuan by the end of April, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the end of March [4][5] - The reduction in deposits by approximately 870 billion yuan in April, compared to a decrease of about 3 trillion yuan year-on-year, had a positive impact on M2 growth, contributing about 1 percentage point [6][7] - The overall credit growth remains robust, with a total of 10.06 trillion yuan in new loans issued in the first four months, although April's single-month new loan issuance was lower than the same month last year [8][9] Group 3 - The ongoing local debt replacement efforts are expected to support long-term economic development, as they allow local governments to alleviate debt burdens and redirect resources towards development and consumption [8][9] - Market analysts predict that the growth of financial aggregates is likely to remain stable in the near future, despite uncertainties in foreign trade and the traditional "small month" for credit in May [9]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant rebound in M2 growth and an acceleration in the scale of social financing, reflecting a stable and effective monetary policy that supports the real economy [1][12]. Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][8]. - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][12]. - In April, the increment of social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [1]. Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance has significantly contributed to the increase in social financing. From January to April, net financing from government bonds exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][4]. - In April, the issuance of special long-term government bonds and refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, which is approximately 1.1 trillion yuan more than the same month last year [3]. Credit Growth and Structure - From January to April, the total increase in RMB loans was 10.06 trillion yuan, roughly the same as the previous year [1]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.31 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, while medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing sector reached 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year [1][6]. Impact of Debt Replacement - The replacement of local government debt through special bonds has influenced the credit growth statistics, but it does not diminish the actual support for the real economy. The adjusted loan growth rate remains above 8% [6][7]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and nearly 1.6 trillion yuan from January to April this year [7]. Economic Outlook - The financial data from the first four months aligns well with the performance of the real economy, indicating that the effects of moderately loose monetary policy will continue to manifest [2][12]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 4 basis points lower than the previous month and 50 basis points lower than the same period last year [13].

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt risks have become a significant concern, necessitating a dual challenge of resolving existing debt and restructuring financing models under the constraints of "preventing defaults" [1] Group 1: Project Selection Logic - Incremental projects by urban investment platforms must align with both "serving local functions" and "market-driven revenue generation" [2] - Projects should anchor on national strategic directions such as "Yellow River Basin ecological protection" and "rural revitalization," which attract policy resources and funding [2] - A closed-loop revenue model must be established during the feasibility study phase, exemplified by affordable housing projects that combine commercial space to cover construction costs [3] - Urban investment companies need to transition from "infrastructure builders" to "urban operators," integrating various public utility services to ensure stable revenue streams [4] Group 2: Funding Source Optimization - A mixed funding model of "policy funds as a base + market financing as a supplement" is essential under tight fiscal constraints [5] - Innovative debt instruments and capital raising strategies are necessary, such as leveraging special bonds and policy financial loans to achieve a leverage ratio of 1:5 [5] Group 3: Avoiding Hidden Debt - Breaking the "fiscal dependency inertia" is crucial to avoid new hidden debts, which involves redefining the responsibilities between government and enterprises [6] - Techniques such as market-driven decision-making and cash flow packaging can help mitigate direct fiscal support and reduce the risk of hidden debt recognition [7][8] - Utilizing gray areas in policies, such as indirect fiscal payments and transforming specific project subsidies into broader industry policies, can further reduce hidden debt risks [8] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - While current practices have shown some success, potential risks remain, including regulatory scrutiny and the sustainability of market-driven revenues [9] - Future reforms should focus on balancing risk prevention and growth stabilization, requiring both technical innovations and deeper fiscal reforms [9]

Economic Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with production, consumption, and investment data exceeding market expectations [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Social retail sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, with a notable increase of 5.9% in March [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1, with manufacturing investment up by 9.1% and infrastructure investment up by 11.5% [1] Export and Domestic Demand - Q1 exports remained resilient, with net export levels reaching new highs, supported by a "rush to export" factor [2] - The positive economic performance in Q1 was attributed to the release of domestic demand and the effects of previous policy measures [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy launched in early 2025 allocated 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods replacement, significantly up from 150 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Manufacturing and Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1% in March, supported by equipment upgrading policies [3] - High-tech industry investments grew by 6.5%, with significant increases in information services, aerospace manufacturing, and computer equipment sectors [3] - Local government debt resolution efforts have positively impacted economic growth, particularly in major economic provinces [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Despite external uncertainties, China's large economic scale and domestic market provide significant resilience and flexibility [4] - The effectiveness of previous growth stabilization policies has contributed to a strong economic performance in Q1 2025 [4] - The focus on domestic stability in response to international uncertainties is seen as a unique advantage for China's economic growth [4]

市场信用风险的主导因素即将进入倒计时,重点 展。具体表现为债务置换提速、清零达标行动、 和长效机制建设。2025年将是化债与发展并重的 地方债务化解正从"政策主导型"向"发展协同型"车 预计2025年后三季度,化债工作重点将转向建立 ● 务风险防控机制,同时经济大省"挑大梁"作用将 化债与发展之间的良性互动将为下一个五年规划 推动中国经济高质量发展。债券市场短期内空间 国债表现较好,但城投超长期限债券上行较为严 保持在OMO+10BP的稳定水平,理财规模正呈现 而非银产品进入新一轮业绩回落周期。 弘则固收叶青发表研报，搜集和分析3-4月地方化债相关新闻，其中债务相关占76.7%。截至4月底，今年已完成化解债务金额达24469.03亿元，平均每条提 及化解债务金额为429.28亿元，体现出化债工作的大规模性和系统性。风险等级变化方面，数据显示有5次相关提及，包括"绿色"3次、"由橙降黄"和"由黄转 绿"各1次。这表明一些地区债务风险正在逐步降低，化债成效初显。截至目前已有14个省市提及债务清零，包括云南、天津、江苏、浙江、贵州等。特别是 经济相对发达的江苏、浙江、广东等省份与部分中西部省份如云南、贵州、陕西、新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Benefiting from continuous strong support from the central government, the uniqueness of the Corps system, and its prominent resource endowment and development foundation, Xinjiang has a strong willingness to repay debts and a good foundation for debt repayment. Despite the existing debt pressure on local governments and platform enterprises, the overall regional debt risk is controllable. However, factors such as the high dependence on resource-based industries, the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang, rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement, and the information and resource allocation under the "dual-track system" of the autonomous region and the Corps may pose constraints on debt management [7][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Will Supported by Central Policy Empowerment and the Resilience of the Corps System - Xinjiang has a unique geopolitical position and a prominent strategic status, with large-scale rigid expenditure needs. Its economic and fiscal strength is limited, and local fiscal self-sufficiency is weak. The central government has been providing support policies and large-scale transfer payments, which strongly support its strong debt repayment will [4][11]. - In 2024, Xinjiang received a total of 418.284 billion yuan in general budget and government fund budget subsidies from the central government. The scale of general budget subsidies from the central government in recent years has been among the top in ethnic minority autonomous regions and the five northwestern provinces [14]. - The special Corps system strengthens Xinjiang's overall debt repayment will. The "Agricultural Sixth Division default event" in 2018 reflected the problem of debt repayment resource mismatch caused by the deep - seated interwoven relationship between the autonomous region and the Corps system, but it also became an opportunity to strengthen debt management [19]. - After the default event, Xinjiang and the Corps strengthened debt risk control, increased the investigation of hidden debts, and established a debt risk accountability system. The central government also supported debt risk resolution through transfer payments and special bond quota allocation [21]. - In terms of historical debt repayment performance, Xinjiang has basically held the bottom line of urban investment debt risk. Except for the 2018 Agricultural Sixth Division bond default, there have been no other bond default events, and there are few credit risk events such as non - standard defaults and bill overdue [24]. 2. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Guarantee Ability under the Linkage of Resource Economy and Central Support - Supported by policies and resource endowments, Xinjiang's economy and finance have maintained a relatively fast growth trend. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Xinjiang has shifted its focus to economic development, and the "Ten Industrial Clusters" development plan has been released, with good future economic development prospects [27][30]. - Xinjiang's fiscal revenue is resource - driven. Abundant resources can provide liquidity support for debt risk prevention, and there is still room for industrial structure upgrading. Its low dependence on land finance makes its fiscal revenue less affected by the real estate downturn [34]. - However, the high dependence on resource - based industries and the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang lead to insufficient economic stability. Rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement may hinder debt resolution [37][42]. 3. Analysis of Xinjiang's Local Debt Repayment Pressure under the Background of the Package Debt Resolution Policy - Xinjiang's overall debt scale and debt ratio are at the middle and lower levels in the country. The debt repayment pressure exists but is relatively controllable, and there is still some room for debt - raising in future economic development [6]. - Since the implementation of the package debt resolution policy, Xinjiang has issued a large - scale of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds to resolve local government debts. The regional financing environment has been effectively improved, the issuance cost of platform bonds has significantly decreased, and the bond term has been extended, effectively alleviating the debt pressure [6][50]. 4. Summary Xinjiang has large - scale rigid expenditure needs, limited economic and fiscal strength, and weak local fiscal self - sufficiency. The government and enterprises have certain debt pressure. However, with the support of the central government and the improvement of debt management, the region has good development prospects. Although there are some factors restricting debt management, the overall regional debt risk is controllable [55].

其三，城投债募集资金用于偿还存量债务的，原则上应当披露拟偿还的存量债 务明细，并承诺所偿还的存量债务不涉及地方政府隐性债务，交易所层面对于 隐债监管愈发严格。根据 2023 版指引，城投债募集资金用于偿还公司债券以 外存量债务的，发行人应披露拟偿还的存量债务明细，并承诺所偿还的存量债 务不涉及地方政府隐性债务。此次修订删除"用于偿还公司债券以外存量债务 的"，更加明确债券募集资金具体用途，表明交易所对于隐债监管愈发严格。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 再跟踪：2025 年地方债务及城投监管政策 其一，首次公开明确城投发债"335 指标"，将其纳入信息披露范围。此前， 城投主体发债"335 指标"并未在交易所规则中明文规定，此次修订虽未明确 具体数据但对相关指标提出信息披露要求，城投发债审核监管制度更加明确。 其二，资质良好的城投主体可以将募集资金用于手续合规、收益良好的项目建 设。2025 年两会政府工作报告继续强调坚持在化债中发展，交易所结合最新 化债政策要求，对于满足一定条件的城投主体，引导其募集资金用于合规的项 目建设，以支持地方形成更多实物工作量，但此部分增量或相对有限。 债券研究 债券日报 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In 2024, national general public budget revenue reached approximately CNY 22 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] - Local fiscal revenue growth (1.7%) outpaced central fiscal revenue growth (0.9%), with local revenue accounting for 54.3% of total revenue[1] - Government fund revenue declined by 12.2%, with land transfer revenue dropping significantly by 16% to CNY 4.9 trillion[1] Group 2: 2025 Budget Projections - The weighted growth rate of local general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 2.8%, with some major economic provinces (e.g., Guangdong, Jiangsu) below 3%[1] - Total local government fund revenue budget for 2025 is estimated at CNY 5.7 trillion, reflecting a 1% decrease[1] - The expected issuance of land reserve special bonds in 2025 is projected to be between CNY 600 billion and CNY 1 trillion[2] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Among 31 provinces, only Tianjin raised its GDP growth target for 2025, while half of the provinces lowered their targets, with a weighted GDP growth target of approximately 5%[2] - Fixed asset investment targets are also weakening, with 10 out of 19 provinces reducing their growth targets[2] Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - Local governments are focusing on five key strategies for debt risk management: strict control of new hidden debts, reduction of existing debts, reform of financing platforms, strengthening special bond management, and ensuring basic financial security[2] - Specific measures include prohibiting projects beyond fiscal capacity and enhancing monitoring of hidden debts[2]