Group 1: Central Bank Strategies - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintains the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged, opting for targeted structural tools instead of broad rate cuts, reflecting caution towards financial risks and asset bubbles [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows a clear inclination towards easing, having cut rates by 25 basis points in August and signaling potential further cuts due to concerns over economic growth and employment [2] - The Swedish Riksbank maintains rates but indicates a possibility of future cuts, attributing slightly higher-than-expected inflation to temporary factors, which may require policy reassessment if economic activity does not improve [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasizes stability and data dependency, maintaining rates unchanged while signaling no urgency to adjust policy despite external economic challenges [3] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) faces a complex situation influenced by tariff scenarios, with rising expectations for rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [3] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - Upcoming Australian CPI data will be crucial for RBA's future decisions, with potential inflationary pressures from electricity prices impacting market expectations for further rate cuts [4] - Japan's CPI data shows a mixed picture, with overall inflation slowing but core inflation remaining above 3%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [5] - The U.S. PCE data, a preferred inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, will directly affect market expectations for rate cuts, with geopolitical factors potentially influencing long-term inflation trends [5] - Weak Canadian GDP data, coupled with low inflation concerns, may provide further justification for the BoC to pursue easing measures to support economic growth [5] Group 3: NVIDIA's Financial Outlook - NVIDIA is expected to report strong quarterly results, driven by explosive demand for AI computing power, but the focus will be on future guidance, particularly regarding its exposure to the Chinese market [6] - The agreement between the U.S. government and NVIDIA, requiring a portion of revenue from China to be paid, along with potential AI export taxes, introduces significant uncertainty for NVIDIA's operations in China [6] - KeyBanc anticipates that NVIDIA may exclude Chinese revenue from its guidance, signaling deepening impacts of U.S. tech restrictions [6] - NVIDIA's financial results will have broader implications for the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and the future of AI technology amidst U.S.-China tech competition [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, marking the first time in five years that prices fell below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang adjusting their prices accordingly [3][6][9] - Zhou Dafu's gold jewelry is now priced at 1006 yuan per gram, down from a peak of 1029 yuan, while Zhou Liufu has dropped to 985 yuan, reflecting a decrease of nearly 40 yuan [6][9] - Banks offer more competitive prices for gold bars, with China Construction Bank quoting 786 yuan per gram, which is nearly 200 yuan cheaper than jewelry prices, making it an attractive option for investors [7][9] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a strong US dollar, which reached a year-high index of 108.3, and a reduction in geopolitical risks that traditionally drive investors to gold as a safe haven [9][10] - There has been a notable shift in investment flows, with funds that previously sought refuge in gold now moving towards Bitcoin and US stocks, leading to a significant reduction in gold ETF holdings by 45 tons over three months [9][10] - The overall demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with sales dropping by 26% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards renting rather than purchasing gold items [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of understanding the purpose of gold purchases, whether for personal use or investment, and advises consumers to be cautious and informed to avoid potential pitfalls [13][14] - It emphasizes the need for consumers to compare prices across different banks and stores, as discrepancies can lead to significant savings, with some banks offering gold bars at prices that vary by as much as 10 yuan per gram [14][21] - The article concludes with a portrayal of a consumer, Aunt Chen, who opts for a bank gold bar instead of jewelry, reflecting a more rational and cautious approach to gold investment among the general public [21][22]

洛阳钼业上半年营收同比下降7.8%，但得益于运营效率的显著提升和成本控制的有效性，归母净利润 大增60.07%创历新高。 周五傍晚，洛阳钼业披露2025年半年报，核心要点如下： 一是成本控制能力的显著提升。上半年营业成本降幅达10.96%，远超收入降幅的7.83%，反映出公司在 刚果金TFM中区治理、工艺优化等精细化管理方面取得实质性进展。 二是产品结构的持续优化。上半年铜钴业务营收占比进一步提升，而铜钴恰恰是新能源产业链的关键原 材料，享受着长期景气的支撑。 产量全面超标，运营效率显著改善 报告称，所有核心产品实现"时间过半任务超半"的目标。 其中，产铜35.36万吨，同比增长12.68%；产钴6.11万吨，同比增长13.05%。钼、钨、铌、磷肥等产品 产量均超过年度目标的50%。 财务表现： 上半年营收947.73亿元，同减7.83%；归母净利润86.71亿元，同增60.07%，创历史新高；经营现金流 120.09亿元，同增11.4%；资产负债率维持在50.15%的合理水平 核心业务进展： 铜产量35.36万吨（+12.68%），钴产量6.11万吨（+13.05%），所有产品均超额完成上半年目标 盈利能力 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆★ (the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities, advisable to wait and see) [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to price fluctuations in the energy market. Short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain, and investors are advised to use appropriate strategies to manage risks [1]. - The fundamentals of different energy products vary. Some show signs of supply - demand balance improvement, while others face challenges such as cost pressure and high inventory [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC10 contract up 0.55% during the day. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to a re - evaluation of the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long - straddle strategy for out - of - the - money options to hedge risks and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Friday, affected by the news of increased US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. FU rose more than 3% in the early trading session, and LU rose nearly 1%. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year as of July. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 17.5% month - on - month. The fundamentals are generally more bullish, and the price spread between different varieties has changed [2]. Asphalt - Sanctions on Iran's oil have led to a stronger geopolitical premium for crude oil, and asphalt prices have followed suit, with the main contract approaching the short - term upper boundary. Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's asphalt production has shown a widening year - on - year decline due to increased deep - processing loads. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for new toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers have improved significantly year - on - year, indicating potential demand for asphalt. The basis has declined due to the strengthening of the futures market and the stability of spot prices. The asphalt market's fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and its price trend mainly follows that of crude oil [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the volume of imported liquefied petroleum gas arriving at ports and the volume released by refineries have increased, putting pressure on domestic - produced gas. After the decline of naphtha prices, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. With the expected decline in chemical profit margins in the future, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the upward pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, maintaining a volatile trend [3].

投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制＋正确 的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强买强卖。机会是留给有准备的人，一次正确的选择大于百倍努力， 你相信老师，我给你一个满意收益，你刚好 需要，我刚好专业！ 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周五（8月22日）欧市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3328.25美元/盎司。周四（8月21日），现货黄金价格小幅下跌0.3%，收于每 盎司3338.45美元，而12月交割的美国期金也下滑0.2%，结算价报3386.50美元。这一跌势的背后，是美元指数强势上涨0.45%，创下两周新高，使得以美元 计价的黄金对海外买家变得更加昂贵。投资者们的目光齐聚美联储主席鲍威尔即将于周五在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话，这场备受期待的演讲可能揭示美联 储的政策方向，并直接影响黄金的未来走势。市场普遍预期鲍威尔不会明确释放9月降息信号，但如果他暗示更多降息空间， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding Intel's (INTC.US) foundry revival have negatively impacted TSMC (TSM.US), raising investor concerns about increased competition. However, JPMorgan believes that the "competitive illusion" created by Intel's foundry efforts is actually more beneficial for TSMC [1] Group 1: Intel's Developments - Intel has made significant progress recently, with reports of potential government investment and a $2 billion investment from SoftBank. Key customers may also participate in the revival of Intel's wafer fabrication facilities [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that the U.S. cannot rely solely on TSMC for advanced chip supply and aims to shift more capacity back to the U.S. [1] Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - JPMorgan asserts that the illusion of having a weaker competitor is more advantageous for TSMC, as it alleviates ongoing regulatory pressures and the push to return business to the U.S. [2] - Despite potential negative perceptions from market participants regarding major TSMC clients like Apple or Nvidia supporting Intel's revival, JPMorgan believes that this will not resolve the inherent conflicts of interest between products and foundries [2] - TSMC is expected to maintain over 90% market share in advanced nodes for the foreseeable future, as the costs associated with a 100% market share may outweigh the benefits [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors - Reports suggest that the U.S. government may convert part of the CHIPS Act funding into equity stakes in participating companies, which could require TSMC to sell a small portion of its equity, likely not exceeding 1% [3] - JPMorgan believes that this potential equity sale is unlikely to significantly alter TSMC's strategic direction and that TSMC will probably not operate Intel's factories or share intellectual property or technology with Intel [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - JPMorgan concludes that while geopolitical factors may cause short-term volatility, TSMC's fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for upward movement [4]

截至2025年8月22日 14:20，黄金ETF基金(159937)多空胶着，最新报价7.37元。拉长时间看，截至2025 年8月21日，黄金ETF基金近半年累计上涨12.55%。 流动性方面，黄金ETF基金盘中换手1.35%，成交3.81亿元。拉长时间看，截至8月21日，黄金ETF基金 近1月日均成交6.28亿元，居可比基金前2。 瑞银认为。黄金涨势有望再延续一年，且动力多来自美国。他们在周一的报告中称，关税和移民限制影 响下的美国粘性通胀、低于趋势的经济增长、美联储重启宽松政策以及美元进一步走弱等多重因素，都 将支撑金价。 东方金诚认为，考虑到美国7月PPI数据意外超预期，暗示后续通胀仍有反弹隐忧，这可能令鲍威尔在本 周举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上重申政策观望态度，从而弱化降息预期，施压金价。此外，日前美 国总统特朗普将继续推动美俄乌三方会晤并推动俄乌之间停战协议进展，地缘政治风险进一步升温的可 能性不大。总体来看，本周金价还将有小幅回调压力，但长期来看，在缺乏明确驱动因素前，金价总体 向上的走势不会发生趋势性扭转。 资金流入方面，黄金ETF基金最新资金净流入221.58万元。拉长时间看，近15个交易日 ...

"特普会""特泽会"促进俄乌和平的努力还未落地，地缘政治风险似乎再一次重新压过了和平预期，国际油价在连续两周下跌后呈现企稳回升之 势。 仅仅四天之内，美国总统特朗普对俄乌局势的态度再一次出现戏剧性反转，似乎从"促和"转变到"促攻"。 本周伊始，市场对俄乌局势一度充满乐观情绪。据央视新闻报道，特朗普8月18日周一仍在白宫与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及欧洲领导人举行会晤，积 极表态将安排俄乌领导人会谈。 然而，随着和平进程陷入僵局，据媒体最新报道，特朗普于8月21日周四在社交媒体上话锋一转，暗示"乌克兰若不打击俄罗斯则无胜算"。他在社 交媒体上发文称： 这就像一支体育界的伟大球队，防守出色，却不被允许进攻。这样根本没有获胜的机会！乌克兰和俄罗斯的情况就是这样。 这一转变的背后是外交努力的停滞，而黯淡的和平前景则迅速推高了国际油价，有望结束长达两周的连跌。布伦特原油期货与WTI原油期货价格 均在本周录得上涨，布伦特原油涨幅为2.7%。 随后，他又在白宫安排了与乌克兰总统及欧洲多国领导人的会晤，表示将着手安排俄乌领导人双边会谈乃至美俄乌三方峰会，试图为这场持续三 年半的冲突画上句号。 然而，和平之路并非坦途。据《环球时报》早 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-22原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1.基本面：克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁哈玛克、堪萨斯城联邦储备银行总裁施密德和亚特兰大联邦储备银 行总裁博斯蒂克对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡，投资者则在为美联储主席鲍威尔即将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍 尔年度会议上的演讲做准备；美国贸易顾问纳瓦罗谈及印度与俄罗斯的石油贸易，称印度需要购买俄罗斯 石油"是荒谬的"，预计特朗普政府对印度的关税将于8月27日翻倍；安哥拉7月石油产量未能达到政府预 期，其原油产量下滑至100万桶/日下方，为两年半以来首次；中性 2.基差：8月21日，阿曼原油现货价为69.78美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.38美元/桶，基差33.86 元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油库存减少241.7万桶，预期减少158.7万桶；美国至8月15日当周EIA 库存减少601.4万桶，预期减少175.9万桶；库欣地区库存至8月15日当周增加41.9万桶，前值增加4 ...

然而，驱动金价走牛的几大核心支柱依然稳固。首先，全球央行持续的"淘金热"并未停止。 为应对地缘政治风险、推进外汇储备多元化，多国央行（以中 国、波兰、印度为首）仍在系统性增持黄金，为市场提供了强大的结构性买盘。其次，地缘政治风险仍在高位。 国际局势复杂多变，黄金作为终极避险资 产的地位无可替代。最后，全球债务规模的急剧膨胀和潜在的金融危机风险，从长期维度削弱了法定货币的信用，增强了黄金的货币属性价值。 近期，持续飙升的国际金价自历史高位回落，引发市场广泛关注：本轮黄金的超级牛市是否已经见顶？金价还会继续下跌吗？综合来看，此次回调更倾向于 技术性调整，支撑黄金的长期逻辑并未发生根本性逆转。 金价短期承压，主要源于两大因素。其一，市场对美联储降息预期的推迟。 美国通胀数据反复，就业市场保持韧性，使得市场不得不重新定价美联储的货 币政策路径。推迟降息意味着持有黄金（无息资产）的机会成本升高，美元指数走强，对金价构成直接压力。其二，技术性获利了结。 金价前期涨势过 猛，累积了大量投机性多头头寸，一旦上涨动能减弱，部分资金选择离场观望，加剧了价格的波动与回调。 因此，当前的下跌更可能是一次健康的"中场休息"，而非牛市的 ...