亨里克 马克思说："贵金属市场可能受到经济增长放缓、地缘政治不确定性以及汽车行业持续变革的影 响。较低的实际利率和持续的通胀可能支撑投资需求，而价格高企和衰退风险可能抑制工业需求。我们 预计2026年上半年贵金属价格波动较大，一旦盘整完成，将出现更明确的机会。" 中国仍是全球需求趋势中的关键因素。《报告》提到，经济刺激措施可能支撑工业活动，但光伏政策调 整可能使白银需求增速放缓。此外，中国"十五五"相关文件涵盖了推进绿氢和燃料电池技术的举措，这 可能从长期推动钌和铱的需求。 贺利氏贵金属近日发布的《2026年贵金属价格预测报告》（简称《报告》）提到，金、银和铂族金属价 格可能在2026年上半年呈现下行趋势。此前的涨势曾将黄金和白银推至历史高位，也令铂族金属价格创 多年新高，预计贵金属价格将迎来盘整。持续的央行购金、通胀和较低的实际利率等因素可能支撑价 格。不过，工业需求疲软和衰退风险对铂族金属构成较大的下行压力。 贺利氏贵金属全球交易负责人亨里克 马克思（Henrik Marx）表示："经历如此幅度的价格上涨后，贵金 属价格很可能需要重新定位和盘整。得益于强劲的央行需求和有利的宏观经济环境，黄金预计仍有最坚 ...

Market Trends - On December 10, the main silver futures contract on the domestic futures market surged by 5.44%, reaching a record high of 14,419.00 yuan/kg [1] - As of December 9, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 1.14 tons, with current holdings at 1,047.97 tons. Meanwhile, the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, maintained its holdings at 15,888.54 tons [1] Short Squeeze Dynamics - The current situation in the silver market resembles a potential "short squeeze," characterized by three key signals: 1. Price divergence from inventory, with silver prices rising significantly while global inventories are declining [4][6] 2. Strong demand for physical silver, particularly in industrial applications like photovoltaics, and a shift in markets like India towards silver due to high gold prices [7] 3. Accumulation of delivery pressure, as COMEX silver open interest remains high, with December being a delivery month, potentially forcing shorts to cover at higher prices [8] Risks Behind the Rally - The silver market has seen a 110% increase this year, leading to concerns about potential volatility due to high prices and market sentiment [9] - The sustainability of the short squeeze is uncertain; if exchanges increase delivery buffers or inventories are replenished, the short squeeze logic may weaken [10] - Leveraged products in the market can amplify both gains and losses, necessitating careful position management by investors [11] - Industrial demand may not be consistently realized, as technological substitutions and usage reductions could impact short-term demand growth [12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price behavior of silver is more akin to gold's breakout in 2023-2024 rather than the bull markets of 1980 or 2011, indicating potential for further price increases in the future [13] - Expectations of interest rate cuts in December could bolster market sentiment, but the high price levels and overbought conditions may lead to increased sensitivity to macroeconomic news [14] - Structural supply-demand imbalances, particularly due to low capital expenditure in mining and increased demand from India, are contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [15] - The overall market remains in a tight supply situation, with low inventories and strong ETF demand, creating a challenging environment for price declines [16][17]

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, surpassing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%, compared to gold's 60% rise [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - On October 9, silver prices reached $60.83 per ounce during trading, closing at $60.65, reflecting a daily increase of 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has outperformed gold, with silver's price increase being more than double that of gold [1][2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, with a potential interest rate cut anticipated in early 2026, leading to a decline in real interest rates [2][3] 2. Increased industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector and AI-related industries, which has driven up orders for silver [2][3] 3. Supply constraints from key mining regions, raising concerns about future silver supply [3][4] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The rising silver prices have led to increased interest in silver investments, although many investors are cautious due to high prices [5] - The current high recovery price for silver, which is significantly higher than gold, has led to a higher loss rate for silver when reselling [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The divergence in performance between gold and silver is attributed to their differing market drivers, with silver benefiting from industrial demand and supply disruptions, while gold's price has stabilized due to already priced-in geopolitical risks [4][6] - The current market structure for silver, including high ETF holdings and speculative positions, may amplify price volatility [7]

来源：新鲜速递 白银价格冲破57美元刷新历史峰值，年内90%的惊人涨幅背后，是美联储降息预期点燃的金融属性与光 伏产业激增的工业需求形成的史诗级共振，但库存见底引发的轧空风险正将市场推向疯狂边缘。 ⚡️ 价格突破与市场表现 历史性飙升 2025年11月28日，纽约COMEX白银期货暴涨6.06%至57.085美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银突破56美元/盎 司，双双刷新历史纪录；国内沪银期货同步冲高至13239元/千克。年内白银累计涨幅超90%，远超黄金 56%的涨幅，金银比缩窄至76:1。 与黄金背离的独立行情 白银本轮上涨呈现"急涨抗跌"特性，即便黄金短期回调，白银仍逆势冲高。其波动率超黄金1.5倍，资 金杠杆效应显著。 核心驱动因素 金融属性爆发 美联储降息预期：市场对12月降息概率预期飙升至89%，美元走弱推升零息资产吸引力。 避险需求激增：中东冲突、美国政府停摆及债务担忧（美债突破37万亿美元）加速资金涌入。 工业需求刚性增长 光伏与新能源：2025年全球光伏装机量超655GW，单GW耗银8-10吨，仅此领域年需求超5000吨；新能 源汽车用银量为燃油车7倍，工业需求占比升至58%。 供应短缺：全球白银连续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and underlying market liquidity expectations [1][3][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Influence - The initial drop in gold prices was due to the Federal Reserve's officials expressing skepticism about a potential interest rate cut in December, leading to a decline of over 2% [1][3]. - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some opposing a December cut while others remain non-committal, which has created uncertainty in the market [7][8]. - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman indicated that more data is needed to support a rate cut, which has alleviated immediate market fears [7][8]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Expectations - Barclays Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve may begin purchasing government bonds as early as February next year to manage market reserves, which supports long-term liquidity expectations [10]. - The stability of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has not negatively impacted gold prices, suggesting that the dollar's performance is not currently a significant factor for gold [13]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for November was reported at 60.2, below the expected 62.0, indicating a decline in consumer confidence which may drive investment into gold as a safe haven [15]. - Industrial demand for gold is also increasing due to its applications in electronic components and renewable energy equipment, providing a steady support for gold prices [15]. Group 4: Investment Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting, focusing on officials' statements and key economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures [19]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, can act as catalysts for gold price increases due to heightened uncertainty [19]. - Long-term investment logic should not be overlooked, as global economic easing and rising industrial demand for gold could provide significant upward potential for gold prices [19][22].

Core Insights - The World Bank predicts that precious metal prices will reach historical highs by 2026, following a 41% increase this year [1] - Gold prices surpassed $4,300 per ounce in October, while silver reached $54 per ounce, before experiencing a slight decline [1] - The demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and safe-haven demand, while silver prices are anticipated to rise further due to industrial demand from renewable energy technologies [1][3] Gold Market - Gold demand is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong investment inflows, including from gold ETFs and central bank purchases [2] - Central banks' gold purchases have reached record levels, with the amount since 2022 being more than double the average from 2015-2019 [2] - Gold prices are expected to increase by approximately 42% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Silver Market - Silver prices surged to around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand and strong industrial needs [3] - Industrial applications account for over half of silver demand, with expectations for continued growth driven by renewable energy and semiconductor production [3] - Silver prices are forecasted to rise by about 34% in 2025 and an additional 8% in 2026, despite slow supply growth [3] Platinum Market - Platinum prices have increased significantly due to production falling to multi-year lows, with automotive demand expected to grow moderately [3] - The supply of platinum is anticipated to recover slightly, mainly due to increased mining output in South Africa, but will still remain below demand [3] - Platinum prices are expected to rise by 29% in 2025 and approximately 4% in 2026 [3] Overall Market Outlook - The outlook for precious metals is skewed towards the upside, with potential upward pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [4] - Downside risks include a hawkish stance from U.S. monetary policy and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which could suppress investment demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge, outperforming gold, with the London spot silver price surpassing $53 per ounce and an annual increase of over 85% as of November 12, 2025, driven by multiple favorable factors [3] Group 1: Silver's Attributes and Price Drivers - Silver's price is influenced by its financial and commodity attributes, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Historically, this ratio fluctuates between 40 and 127, with a central value around 68. As of April 2025, the ratio reached a high of 105, indicating potential for silver price appreciation as it reverts to historical averages [4] - The commodity attribute of silver is crucial, as it is essential in high-tech manufacturing sectors like electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive industries. Industrial applications account for nearly 60% of total silver demand, with the photovoltaic sector alone representing about 17% [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The recent strong performance of silver is attributed to its three attributes working in concert. A weaker US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased the appeal of silver as a dollar-denominated asset. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and US debt issues have enhanced the allure of precious metals as safe-haven assets [5] - For investors, understanding silver's unique market characteristics and investment channels is essential. Investment methods include virtual investments (like silver ETFs and futures) and physical investments (such as silver bars and coins). Silver is likened to a "small-cap stock" in the precious metals sector, with its lower market capitalization making it more sensitive to capital inflows [6][7] Group 3: Investment Outlook - In the current market environment, silver can be viewed as an "enhanced" alternative to gold, benefiting from both gold's upward momentum and additional growth from industrial demand and the renewable energy revolution. As global economic expectations improve, silver is positioned to potentially outperform gold due to its stronger commodity attributes [7] - It is advisable for investors to consider including silver in their diversified portfolios, employing a strategy of gradual accumulation and monitoring the gold-silver ratio to optimize investment returns [7]

Core Insights - Germany's industrial new orders increased by 1.1% month-on-month in September, ending a four-month decline trend [1] - In Q3, industrial new orders decreased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Domestic new orders fell by 2.5% month-on-month, while foreign new orders rose by 3.5% [1] Domestic and Foreign Orders - Domestic new orders decreased by 2.5% month-on-month in September [1] - Foreign new orders increased by 3.5% month-on-month, with orders from the Eurozone and outside the Eurozone rising by 2.1% and 4.3% respectively [1] Sector Performance - The growth in new orders was primarily driven by the automotive industry and electrical equipment manufacturing, which saw month-on-month increases of 3.2% and 9.5% respectively [1] - In contrast, demand in energy-intensive sectors weakened, with new orders in the metal products manufacturing sector declining by 19% month-on-month [1] Year-on-Year Trends - Adjusted for working days, industrial new orders in September decreased by 4.3% year-on-year [1] Economic Outlook - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy noted that the recent volatility in domestic and foreign orders makes it difficult to determine a clear trend in industrial demand [1] - The ministry highlighted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contribute to the fragility of industrial demand in Germany [1]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's industrial new orders showed a month-on-month increase of 1.1% in September, ending a four-month decline, although the third quarter saw a year-on-year decrease of 3% [1] Group 1: New Orders Data - In September, domestic new orders in Germany decreased by 2.5% month-on-month, while foreign new orders increased by 3.5%, with orders from the Eurozone and outside the Eurozone rising by 2.1% and 4.3% respectively [1] - The growth in new orders for September was primarily driven by the automotive industry and electrical equipment manufacturing, which saw month-on-month increases of 3.2% and 9.5% respectively [1] - In contrast, demand in energy-intensive sectors weakened, with new orders in the metal products manufacturing sector declining by 19% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Comparison - Adjusted for working days, industrial new orders in September experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy noted that due to significant fluctuations in domestic and foreign orders in recent months, it is currently difficult to determine a clear trend in industrial demand [1] - The ministry also highlighted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contribute to the fragility of industrial demand in Germany [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 9.2% increase in consolidated sales year-over-year, with acquisitions contributing 6.3 percentage points to growth, while organic sales growth was 3% [17] - EBITDA increased by 13.4% year-over-year, with EBITDA margins expanding to 12.2%, up 46 basis points from the previous year [21] - Earnings per share (EPS) rose 11.4% to $2.63, benefiting from a reduced share count due to buyback activity [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The service center segment saw organic sales growth of 4.4%, driven by internal initiatives and firming technical MRO demand [22] - The engineered solutions segment experienced a 19.4% increase in sales, primarily due to acquisitions, but organic sales decreased by 0.4% year-over-year [23] - Hydradyne's EBITDA contribution improved by over 20% sequentially, indicating strong progress in integration and synergy initiatives [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-over-year organic sales growth was reported at 3%, the strongest in two years, with 16 out of the top 30 markets showing positive sales growth [6] - Strongest growth was observed in machinery, food and beverage, refining, pulp and paper, metals, oil and gas, and aggregates, while declines were noted in lumber and wood, transportation, chemicals, mining, and utilities [6][7] - The company noted a stable to slightly positive underlying demand backdrop, with positive order momentum across various segments [10][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage ongoing operational initiatives and structural mix tailwinds to achieve mid to high teen incremental annual margin targets [13] - M&A remains a top capital allocation priority, with an active pipeline of mid-sized targets across both segments [15] - The company is focused on enhancing its technical differentiation and value-added service capabilities through strategic acquisitions [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the first quarter performance, highlighting stronger top-line trends and sustained positive order momentum [30] - The company anticipates that industrial activity will remain mixed in the near term, with expectations for order conversion to be more weighted toward the second half of fiscal 2026 [27][28] - Management noted that customer sentiment is gradually improving, with favorable demand signals across traditional and emerging markets [31] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $419 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of 0.3 times EBITDA, indicating a solid balance sheet position [25] - Free cash flow totaled $112 million, representing a conversion rate of 111% relative to net income [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on holiday shutdowns from customers - Management indicated it is still early to assess customer plans for holiday shutdowns, but some customers are expected to remain active [36] Question: Supplier pricing behavior - Management noted no significant changes in supplier behavior, with price increases being orderly and manageable [39][40] Question: Engineered solutions performance expectations - Management expects engineered solutions to potentially outperform service centers in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to order backlog conversions [44] Question: Order growth dynamics - Management explained that order growth is encouraging, but project conversion times vary based on complexity and scheduling [52] Question: Pricing expectations for the year - Management maintained a cautious outlook on pricing, indicating it may not ramp beyond the current 200 basis points without clearer market activity [55] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed that organic growth opportunities and M&A remain top priorities, with a disciplined approach to acquisitions [63]