| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - Factors such as asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - Gold will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Many commodities in different sectors are expected to oscillate due to various factors such as trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances. Some commodities are expected to decline or rise based on specific supply and demand situations [1]. Summary by Industry Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: It is expected to oscillate. After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - **Gold**: Oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Oscillating. Sino - US talks will start, and the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but the copper price has clearly rebounded, so the price may oscillate. Focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. Global trade frictions are still uncertain, and with the arrival of the domestic wet season, the domestic inventory reduction speed may slow down, so the aluminum price will oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved, and the short - term price may rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. Under the favorable domestic policies, the market sentiment has improved, but the result of Sino - US tariff negotiations is unknown, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Focus on short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the premium of nickel ore is high, and the nickel price will oscillate. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning nickel. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and operate within the range. Be vigilant about changes in domestic and foreign macro and resource - country policies [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the price of nickel iron has slightly corrected, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand expectation is weak under the background of trade frictions. In the short - term, the stainless - steel futures will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see and operate within the range. The industrial sector should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand has not improved and the inventory pressure has not been relieved [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, so the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream raw - material inventory is at a high level. At the low price, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Plates may bear the brunt, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Tariff policies affect the market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillating. The inventory is high, but the cost has support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. The cost has loosened, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is neutral [1]. - **Glass**: Oscillating. The demand is released in a pulsed manner. Pay attention to the demand performance. The near - term positions are gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating. Alkali plants are resuming production, and the demand has increased, but the medium - term supply is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillating. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of positive arbitrage in the futures - cash market and selling hedging after the price rebounds to a premium [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. The rebound of crude oil prices may make it difficult for oils and fats to decline smoothly. The fundamentals are bearish. Wait for the opportunity to short after the price rebounds. It is recommended to do long in the YP spread [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. There is currently a lack of weather themes for US soybeans. The large volume of soybean arrivals and the intention of Sino - US talks may be bearish risks, and the price is in a unilateral oscillation [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting period. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed recently, which is expected to bring large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider doing long in the volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. If crude oil continues to search for the bottom, the cotton - spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on the cotton price. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is bearish for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have raised concerns about international supply shortages, and the price of raw sugar has risen strongly recently. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, which suppresses the upside space of the domestic market [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. In the short - term, affected by the impact of new wheat listing and the expectation of policy - based grain release, the corn futures price faces certain pressure. The expected trend is oscillating, and the bullish expectation remains unchanged under the tightening medium - term supply and demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to do long [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Bearish. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas recently is conducive to sowing, the Brazilian discount is generally oscillating weakly, there is no obvious bullish driver in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Wait for the further release of spot pressure [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The decline in the overseas offer of paper pulp weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased recently. It is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillating. The volume of log arrivals remains high, the inventory is generally at a high level, the price of terminal products has fallen, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating. With the continuous restoration of pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price has an obvious expectation, the discount to the spot is large, and there is no bright spot in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillating. The cost is dragging down, the inventory is still low but continuously accumulating, the demand is slowly recovering, and the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan is worth looking forward to this year [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. The expectation of production release is increasing, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and affected by the purchase - storage policy [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Bearish. The cost is suppressing, the fundamentals are loose, the spread between high - and low - end butadiene rubber continues to widen, and it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **PTA**: The intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants has significantly repaired the internal - external spread of PX. Due to the profit repair of PTA, the procurement demand for PX has significantly strengthened, the floating price has started to strengthen, and domestic PTA and reforming plants plan to overhaul more plants in May. The high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based plants have started to be overhauled [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Bullish. The slightly tight situation of PTA has strengthened the cost support for short - fiber, and in the case of a high basis, short - fiber has shown strong performance [1]. - **Styrene**: The weak demand for pure benzene has caused the price to continue to decline. The decline in the profit of reforming plants has clearly affected the plant load. After the sharp decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene has continued to weaken [1]. - **Urea**: Bullish. The market expectation is favorable, the sentiment is strong, and the urea market is likely to rise firmly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The basis is high, and the replenishment is active. In the short - term, the methanol price will oscillate within the range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. The macro - risk is large, crude oil is oscillating weakly, the orders are insufficient, the market sentiment is weak, and PE will oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Some previously overhauled plants have resumed operation, the demand is stable, the trade war has intensified, the market sentiment is weak, and PP will oscillate [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. The fundamentals are weak, the macro - risk has intensified, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The demand during the May Day holiday was average, the driving force for the increase in spot prices was insufficient, and the futures price oscillated weakly [1]. Other Sector - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market has strong expectations but weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling at the price - support point due to the price reduction. As the futures price begins to show a safety margin, you can try to go long in the peak - season contracts with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread for arbitrage [1].

| Clerkers | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【201 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 唐第政府 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/05/ | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 节后开盘避免追高,关注中小盘弹性释放机会,多头品种上主要考虑中证 1000 (IM) | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | | | | | 策略方面关注沪铜正套机会。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

| ICTERHER | | | 投资咨询业务资格 · 证监许可 2012 · · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐笛吹赤 1 | 17 | | 研究院:李泽钜 | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 月底中央政治局会议渐行渐近,政策预期犹存,股指赛略仍以逢低布局多 | | | | | 头为王。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | | | 关税不确定性仍高企。商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 风险。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行空间有限,但上行 ...

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 | C E H F . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | F | 唐策略示 | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | | | | IF与IH的4月合约贴水大幅升高,加上国家队护盘方向主要在此,可考虑 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 进行短多,交易反弹。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 宏观金融 | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期调整后料进入震荡,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税政策超预期,银价相对承压,短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | 铜 | 農汤 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。 | | | 铝 氧化铝 | ○震荡 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。由阳气 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。 | | | | | 特朗普对等关税大超预期叠加基本面 ...

| | | 唐第郎示 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | 发布日期:2025/04. | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 多头 H与IF品种较为稳健:IM注意波动加大的风险,综合结合期权进行风 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 险对冲。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡调整,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 白银 | 農 汤 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡。 | | | 铜 | 震荡 | 关税阴霾笼罩,叠加高铜价抑制下游需求,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | 铝 | い震荡 | 国内电解铝现货进一步下滑,但短期价格缺乏驱动,价格震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。但盘面跌破成 | | | | | 本线,短期预计跌势放缓。 | | | | | 加工费上 ...