Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

| CTEFINE | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | せ 货 略 灰 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双头策略。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 ----- | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | 铜 | TU 看空 | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 | | | | | 风险。 | | | | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦 ...

| ICTERHER | | | 投资咨询业务资格 · 证监许可 2012 · · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐笛吹赤 1 | 17 | | 研究院:李泽钜 | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 月底中央政治局会议渐行渐近,政策预期犹存,股指赛略仍以逢低布局多 | | | | | 头为王。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | | | 关税不确定性仍高企。商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 风险。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行空间有限,但上行 ...

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 | C E H F . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | F | 唐策略示 | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | | | | IF与IH的4月合约贴水大幅升高,加上国家队护盘方向主要在此,可考虑 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 进行短多,交易反弹。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 宏观金融 | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期调整后料进入震荡,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税政策超预期,银价相对承压,短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | 铜 | 農汤 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。 | | | 铝 氧化铝 | ○震荡 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。由阳气 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。 | | | | | 特朗普对等关税大超预期叠加基本面 ...

| | | 唐第郎示 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | 发布日期:2025/04. | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 多头 H与IF品种较为稳健:IM注意波动加大的风险,综合结合期权进行风 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 险对冲。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡调整,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 白银 | 農 汤 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡。 | | | 铜 | 震荡 | 关税阴霾笼罩,叠加高铜价抑制下游需求,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | 铝 | い震荡 | 国内电解铝现货进一步下滑,但短期价格缺乏驱动,价格震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。但盘面跌破成 | | | | | 本线,短期预计跌势放缓。 | | | | | 加工费上 ...