（文章来源：第一财经） 华西证券指出，中长期视角下，对比A股历次牛市，本轮行情仍处中段，"慢牛"趋势有望延续。行业配 置上，建议关注：（1）科技产业行情扩散：如AI算力、AI应用、机器人、太空光伏、存储、港股互联 网等；（2）受益于"反内卷"与涨价方向，如化工、有色金属等；（3）年报业绩预告高增行业：如电 子、机械设备、医药等。 ...

先说打新，建议是：别让美股打新影响你的睡眠，别让港股打新影响你的持仓。BitGo打了，富途派货不错。第二天一觉醒来跑的，赚了个寂寞。龙旗满上 了，暗盘还不错，给了20%+，但暗盘即巅峰，到周五已回吐所有涨幅。 鸣鸣很忙满上了，超购1500倍意味着拿货率又很低了。综上，散户打新的最优解是当收益增强用。虽然持仓打新会浪费点利息，但现金打新却浪费了牛市。 上周走了创新实业，自此，2025的港股打新已无持仓。 再说A股，上周是烈火烹油的好，尽管GJD在过去数个交易日流出5000亿+，市场却开始嘲笑他们走在了半山腰，以及快没子弹了。各基金公司甚至算出GJD 还有一万多亿筹码，其中70%+在沪深300。于是上周中小票继续飞，中证500，中证1000，中证2000，科创50ETF本月已涨了11%+~15%+。某些散户是不是 对GJD有什么误解？以打战做类比，万箭齐发总是进攻的第一步，后面的大招还在路上。好在ZC的意图是慢牛。重点不在"慢"在"牛"。如果不是追高，遭遇 回调，忍一忍也就过去了。盲猜下一个重要节点是春节，8，9天的利息会劝退不少意志不坚定的融资盘。 上周有两个趋势值得留意，一个是中际旭创已超越宁德时代与腾讯，位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the U.S. midterm elections are a critical variable affecting global dynamics, particularly in relation to monetary policy and economic confidence [2][10][13] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken overall, but the rate of depreciation will slow compared to 2025 [23][31] - The current AI wave in the U.S. is compared to significant historical initiatives, indicating its potential impact on the economy and stock market [33][37] Group 2 - China's economic challenges from old growth drivers are diminishing, but structural issues remain, necessitating a focus on structural opportunities [42][50] - The real estate market is highlighted as a key area of concern, with the potential for stabilization and recovery in property values [44][48] - Investment opportunities in China are expected to arise from government guidance on wealth allocation, particularly in emerging sectors outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [50][52] Group 3 - The focus for investment in 2026 should be on stability rather than speculation, with an emphasis on company value rather than market hype [4][60] - The return of foreign capital, particularly through passive ETFs and active management funds, indicates a positive shift in investment sentiment towards China [61][63] - The restructuring of supply chains and industries presents new opportunities, especially in less prominent sectors like steel and chemicals [56][58]

文字早评 2026/01/26 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 【行情资讯】 国债 1、银河航天徐鸣：太空新基建迎万亿市场 2035 年全球太空经济将达 1.8 万亿美元； 2、星河动力总工李君：液体回收火箭智神星二号预计今年首飞； 3、AI：元宝官宣 2 月 1 号开启新春 10 亿红包活动；百度文心助手将发放 5 亿现金； 4、马斯克：星舰今年目标完全复用 进入太空成本将降至目前的 1%； 5、报道称三星电子将一季度 NAND 价格上调 100%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.03%/0.14%/-0.32%/-1.18%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.77%/0.79%/-0.13%/-1.15%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.72%/0.54%/-1.23%/-2.97%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.01%/0.19%/0.13%/-0.86%。 基本面看，12 月经济数据显示生产端有所回暖，外需方面出口数据超 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among sell-side strategies remains optimistic for the upcoming market, with a consensus on the interplay between performance and themes [1] - The market structure has shown changes, with increased inflows into real estate chains, resource products, and price increase chains, indicating a rise in medium to low-risk preference for incremental capital [1] - Key focus areas for the spring market include commercial aerospace and AI applications, as well as price increase chains with significant profit elasticity expectations [1] Group 2 - From a medium to long-term perspective, the current market is still in the mid-stage of a "slow bull" trend, with ample room for growth compared to previous bull markets [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index currently has a risk premium of 5.27%, which is higher than the 2.5% level seen in previous bull markets, indicating potential for further market expansion [2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares relative to M2 and the free float market capitalization to household deposits are at historical midpoints, suggesting sufficient opportunities in the market [2] Group 3 - The liquidity environment is expected to remain favorable before the Spring Festival, with a potential for the market to continue to strengthen [2] - The focus for strategies may shift towards sectors with positive first-quarter earnings expectations, particularly in the overseas computing power industry chain [1][2] - High elasticity sectors continue to attract incremental capital, supported by a stable RMB exchange rate and a relatively loose overall liquidity environment [1][2] Group 4 - The market is expected to gradually shift towards performance recovery, with a focus on sectors that show high growth potential and sustainability [4] - Key sectors to watch include batteries, certain chemicals, and industries benefiting from price increase logic, such as non-ferrous metals and storage chips [4] - If the main sectors show weak performance growth, sectors with recovery potential may outperform in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The market showed a divergence last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.83%, and the CSI 500 index surged by 4.34% [2] - The domestic economy is experiencing limited rebound, with industrial production showing seasonal recovery, but retail sales and real estate sales remaining at relatively low levels [2] - International gold prices increased by 8.31% last week, indicating a continued preference for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in holdings by the national team, market enthusiasm remains high, with retail investors continuing to enter the market [3] - The national team has reduced its holdings significantly, with a third of its positions in the CSI 300 ETF being cut in the past two weeks, leading to increased investment in the CSI 500 index [3] - The recommendation is to maintain a high position in small and mid-cap stocks, benefiting from both incremental capital and the reallocation of funds due to the national team's reduction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a "summer" phase of a bull market, with active trading, accelerated sector rotation, and a broadening profit effect, but without signs of full-blown bubble or extreme sentiment, indicating that both time and space have not yet peaked [2][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Compared to major global markets, the recent rise in the Chinese stock market is more of a "catch-up" rather than a "bubble," with the A-share market still undervalued despite a significant rebound in 2025 [4][6]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and the Nasdaq (about 42 times), indicating a relative undervaluation [6]. - The foundation of the bull market in China is solid, supported by the unshakeable advantage of the manufacturing sector, underestimated technological strength, cautious global corporate capital expenditure, and supportive policies [7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The company identifies five key "hard asset" investment directions: "Technology Innovation+", pharmaceutical and biotechnology, supply-side reversal of resource products, gold, and high-dividend assets [8][9]. - In the "Technology Innovation+" sector, internet platform companies are experiencing a valuation recovery post-antitrust adjustments, with strong cash flows and enhanced dividends, while AI-enabled new businesses are emerging [9][10]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is entering a harvest phase, with innovative drug development yielding global licensing opportunities, and the industry is at a historical low in valuation after four years of deep adjustment [10]. - The supply-side reversal of resource products is driven by a significant lack of capital expenditure over the past five years, coupled with rigid demand growth in new energy, military, and AI hardware, leading to a supply gap for key metals [10]. - Gold assets are gaining value as a non-credit asset amid global de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with potential support for gold prices if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [10]. - High-dividend assets, such as those in the power, telecommunications, and banking sectors, provide stable cash flows in a declining interest rate environment, serving as a ballast in investment portfolios, especially during periods of increased volatility [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a typical summer bull market feature, with active trading, accelerated sector rotation, and expanding profit effects, but without signs of overall bubble or extreme emotional exuberance, indicating that both time and space have not yet peaked [1][10] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" and "long bull" formation, contrasting with previous short bull and long bear trends [6][14] - The Chinese stock market's recent rise is more of a "catch-up" rather than a "bubble" compared to global markets, with the current valuation still at a low level [3][12] Economic Comparison - Compared to Japan's market performance post-1990s, China's economic fundamentals are stronger, with manufacturing advantages significantly surpassing Japan's, and a record trade surplus achieved in 2025 [4][12] - The Chinese economy is showing a better upward trend in new economic sectors like semiconductors and the internet compared to Japan's past performance [4][12] Valuation Insights - As of Q3 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and the Nasdaq (about 42 times), indicating a valuation gap [5][13] - The A-share market has underperformed global markets, with the Wind All A index down nearly 30% from 2021 to 2024 [5][13] Investment Opportunities - The company identifies five key "hard asset" investment directions: "Technology Innovation+", pharmaceutical and biotechnology, resource supply-side reversal, gold, and high-dividend assets [3][7][15] - "Technology Innovation+" includes internet platform companies returning to reasonable valuations and AI-enabled new business opportunities [7][15] - In pharmaceuticals, innovative drug development is entering a harvest phase, with several biotech firms expected to reach profitability [7][16] - Resource supply-side reversal is driven by a supply gap in key metals due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past five years, alongside growing demand from sectors like new energy and military [7][16] - Gold assets are gaining value as a non-credit asset amid global de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with potential support for gold prices if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [8][16] - High-dividend assets in sectors like electricity, telecommunications, and banking provide stable cash flow, serving as a stabilizing component in investment portfolios during volatile market conditions [8][16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "slow bull" market expectation, suggesting a shift from a previous "crazy bull" sentiment to a more stable outlook, maintaining confidence in mid-cap blue chips and cyclical sectors [2][3] - The cyclical mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors, are highlighted as key investment opportunities, with a focus on manufacturing and technology growth [3] - The chemical industry is undergoing a transformation, moving from a focus on market share to profitability, influenced by internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping measures [3] Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as smart vehicles and robotics [3] - Recommended ETFs include the Hang Seng ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and various sector-specific ETFs such as the Chemical ETF and Non-ferrous ETF [3] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is reaching the limits of market share expansion due to policy constraints and increased scrutiny on low-quality growth, signaling a need for companies to adjust their strategies [3] - Key areas of focus within the chemical sector include MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle chips, with a preference for companies demonstrating strong leadership advantages [3] - The zinc market is expected to see price increases due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, driven by infrastructure needs in developing regions and a tightening supply of zinc ore [4][3]

会上，边风炜老师围绕当前市场核心态势展开了深度解析。他指出，当前市场正处于"慢牛"演进的关键阶段，投资者们对于短期的波动无需过度焦虑，但 也不能忽视相应风险。边老师从宏观经济、政策导向、资金流动等多维度切入，系统梳理了支撑市场长期向好的核心逻辑。 A爰建证券 女儿第号 2082062408000 爱建证券首席投顾 边风情 线下载 ll > 行稳致远求小惊喜 H l = Hit 近期，A 股市场呈现震荡分化格局，如何把握节奏寻找确定性机会，成为当下投资者关注的焦点。在此背景下，1月18日上午，爱建证券数字金融部于上 海成功举办了以"慢牛在路上——行稳致远求小惊喜"为主题的线下策略会，此次策略会由爱建证券金牌投资顾问边风炜老师主讲。 ..... N 0 r 4 . r . ........ , d 4 t . .. t b 4 x . . 4 4 t r r .......... 1 4 . t . ... .................... ... 4 -- 4 .. ----------- 4 t . r . d . . a division and stages 4 r . t 4 --- a Bel ...