本文来自微信公众号：嬉笑创客，作者：CB，题图来自：视觉中国 随着中美top对话的通路进一步打开，全球最重要的双边关系迎来缓解。固然对抗仍然是主轴，但方式在转变。随着Tiktok 交易进入具体落地谈判，事情 从拜登时期的没得谈，演化至可以聊。甚至当传闻美国政府要收取10亿美元的FA费用时，不少人都松了一口气：这意味着商人背景的总统真把这当生意 来做了。 懂交易的都知道，这里面的门道有多深。 既然是生意，本质上就不会和钱过不去。我们知道，隔岸观火的战争是可以发战争财的，但亲自下场的战争只会掏空国库。这大概是中美两国在过去一个 世纪里的共同经验教训。 世界从单极缓慢迈向多极的路径愈发清晰。在这个过程中，原先势力渗透至世界各地的美国在主动收缩，留下了更多真空，诱发了更多区域冲突。我们看 到了以色列的激进进攻姿态，看到了区域旧势力的卷土重来，过程中美国代理人仓皇逃离。 而中国则远远还没有接手，对海外事务的介入程度仍然低了一个量级。 要知道，过往美国的海外介入到了什么程度：单就非洲这个地理间隔遥远的大陆而言，屡有接受美国训练的军事司令发动政变，也有中情局多次策划推翻 当地政府或直接提供武器，更不用说直接在当地设有军事据 ...

下午15点开始，金融三巨头的发布会，开了一个半小时，说实话，值得特意解读的东西不多，因此，标题里，用了"简单"二字。 做债的认为，没有降准降息，也没有ym买债，预期落空； 做股的认为，没有新增政策的介绍，预期落空。 当然，从随后的现券等数据看，市场又拉回来了，整体还是比较理性的。 3、 从货币政策来看 ，潘行强调，继续适度宽松的货币政策，而与去年9月相比，最大的不同是什么？潘行这段没念稿子，特意强调了 上周美联储降息后，美元指数连续维持在97附近，也就是22年以来的最低位，这意味着，"弱美元"是当前的主线，因此，和去年持续性 的人民币贬值压力相比，攻守之势异也，潘行说了八个字，在货币政策上，坚持： 依次说说， 1、昨晚，我们在《 金融三巨头的发布会又来了 》里即判断，" 对明天的发布会， 首先要降低预期 ， 因为，主题里就明确了，是关于十四五 规划完成情况的发布会，主要是介绍过去5年金融监管工作的成绩的。" 2、实际，今天潘行发言初始，就定了调子: " 今天主要是从中长期的视角回顾和总结 ... 不涉及短期政策的调整。 " 话音刚落， 下图 ，我们看今天15点到15点15分之间，代表股票的A50期货，和代表债 ...

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy has shown a differentiated catalytic effect on the market, with significant excess returns in most industries like batteries relative to the CSI 300 index, while the coal industry has not outperformed the index [2][5][15] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in factory prices from the supply side, but this has not yet translated to consumer prices at the residential level [2][22] - Since July, prices of polysilicon and thermal coal have stabilized and rebounded significantly, indicating the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on price recovery [2][34] Market Performance - From July 1 to September 19, 2025, the battery sector saw a 41.13% increase, while the coal sector only increased by 7.36%, compared to a 14.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The coal production in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while coal prices have stabilized, contributing to the coal sector's recent performance [5][14] Policy Developments - Since June, new "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, emphasizing self-discipline and legal norms to promote capacity optimization, with more noticeable effects in quantifiable areas [6][16] - The effectiveness of these policies may vary, with some sectors lacking quantitative policy support, leading to temporary inefficiencies in supply contraction [6][16] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with an August year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [22][27] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to a drop in consumer goods prices, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [27][31] Industry Price Recovery - Since July, polysilicon prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching an average price of 50 yuan per kilogram by September 19, 2025 [34][38] - Other materials have experienced short-term price increases followed by a return to a downward trend, indicating a mixed recovery across sectors [34][36] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue on a "slow bull" trend, driven by a revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and policy expectations [7][45] - Key sectors to watch include metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and pig farming, which are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][41][45]

周三上午，A股市场还洋溢着乐观气氛。在美联储降息预期和国内外利好消息的推动下，投资者信心满满，主要指数全线飘红。 科技成长板块成为领涨主力，AI、半导体、算力等细分领域表现亮眼。 然而，下午开盘后市场情绪突变，各大指数集体跳水。沪指由涨转跌，创业板指盘中跌幅一度超3%。 全市场超4100只个股下跌，投资者持仓市值普遍"缩水"。最终两市仅有1027只个股上涨，64只个股涨停，4350只个股下跌。 市场一片看好声中，A股却在9月18日下午突然上演高台跳水，超过4300只个股收跌。美联储降息利好竟然成了资金出货的时机，盘中究竟发生 了什么？ 9月18日，A股市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"行情。上午，各大指数还在一片看好声中高歌猛进，上证指数一度触及3899.96点，距离3900点仅差0.04 点。 然而午后市场风云突变，三大指数集体跳水，沪指由涨转跌，最终收跌1.15%，报3831.66点；深证成指跌1.06%，创业板指跌1.64%。 美联储降息这一利好因素，反而成了部分资金出货的时机。此前市场涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息利好的兑现，选择了获利了结。 3900点整数关口附近抛压沉重，套牢盘与解套盘集中离 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the A-share market remains high, focusing on core independent trend stocks, with no clear signs of a peak or pullback [1] - The market is currently in a phase of horizontal consolidation, with historical reference points suggesting a potential pullback to the 60-day moving average [1] - The expectation for a slow bull market remains unchanged, with the potential for further gains if the Federal Reserve lowers rates by an additional 50 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a macro event that is generally favorable for the market, although A-share indices have faced some pressure after initial gains [2] - There is a noted decline in the profitability of previously popular technology stocks, indicating a potential cooling of market sentiment [2] - The upcoming "Eleventh" holiday may lead to a decrease in trading activity, with the market likely to remain in a state of oscillation and consolidation before the holiday [2]

9月22日消息，三大指数小幅高开，贵金属板块涨幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3822.01点，涨0.05%；深成指报13119.83 点，涨0.37%；创指报3093.97点，涨0.10%。 消息面： 1、9月19日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶 段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。通话是务实、积极、建设性的。 2、国务院总理李强9月19日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究关于在政府采购中实施本国产品标准及相关政策；会议讨论并 原则通过《中华人民共和国银行业监督管理法（修订草案）》，决定将草案提请全国人大常委会审议。 3、央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于9月22日下午3点召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成 就，并答记者问。 4、商务部新闻发言人9月20日就TikTok问题进展情况答记者问时表示，中方在TikTok问题上的立场是清楚的，中国政府尊 重企业意愿，乐见企业在符合市场规则基础上做好商业谈判，达成符合中国法律法规、利益平衡的解决方案。 5、央行9月20日发布公告称，即日起，公开市场14天期逆回购操作调整为固定数量、利率招标、多 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Private equity firms in China are showing increasing optimism, with stock private equity institutions' average positions rising to the highest level of the year at 78.04% as of September 12, up 2.96 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The proportion of private equity firms with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, a rise of 5.81 percentage points week-on-week, while the proportion of firms with no positions has decreased to 5.08%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - Different scales of private equity firms are maintaining high positions, with those managing over 10 billion yuan averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan averaging 86.49%, the highest among all categories [1] Group 2: Performance and Market Trends - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The "Dai Shui Quan Growth Phase I" product from the leading private equity firm Dai Shui Quan has reported a return exceeding 50% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors [2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Strategy - There is a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while coal and steel sectors have seen minimal increases [3] - The firm "Jia Gu Capital" emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly focusing on bottom-up stock selection [3]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among private equity institutions remains optimistic despite market fluctuations, with stock private equity institutions' average positions reaching a year-to-date high of 78.04% as of September 12 [1] - The proportion of private equity institutions with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, up by 5.81 percentage points from the previous week, while the proportion of those with no positions has decreased to 5.08% [1] - Different scales of private equity institutions show high average positions, with large-scale institutions (over 10 billion) averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion averaging 86.49%, indicating a general trend of maintaining high positions across various sizes [1] Group 2 - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative private equity firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors, leading to a shift from "certainty priority" to "growth priority" [2] - Emerging growth opportunities, such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI hardware, are becoming significant market drivers, reflecting a renewed focus on fundamental growth rather than just certainty [2] Group 3 - Large private equity institutions, such as Jiangju Capital, observe a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications and electronics, while coal and steel sectors show minimal increases [3] - Jiangju Capital emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize expected returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly adhering to bottom-up stock selection [3]