A股2025年收官：沪指11连阳全年收涨超18%，创业板指全年大涨49.57% 2025-12-31 15:08 南方财经12月31日电，A股2025年收官，截至收盘，沪指涨0.09%录得11连阳，全年收涨18.41%创10年 新高；深成指跌0.58%，全年收涨29.87%；创业板指跌1.23%，全年大涨49.57%。科创50指数全年涨 35.92%，北证50指数全年涨38.8%。纵观全年，算力硬件、有色金属、银行、电池产业链、创新药、商 业航天、机器人等多个板块轮动推动沪指一度站上4000点。 相关文章 南方财经12月31日电，A股2025年收官，截至收盘，沪指涨0.09%录得11连阳，全年收涨18.41%创10年 新高；深成指跌0.58%，全年收涨29.87%；创业板指跌1.23%，全年大涨49.57%。科创50指数全年涨 35.92%，北证50指数全年涨38.8%。纵观全年，算力硬件、有色金属、银行、电池产业链、创新药、商 业航天、机器人等多个板块轮动推动沪指一度站上4000点。 今年涨幅前三个股分别为上纬新材(1821.41%)、天普股份（605255）(1662.49%)、N蘅东光(878.16%) ...

周二，A股深强沪弱，根据交易所数据，上证指数涨0.0%报3965.12点，深证成指涨0.49%，创业板指涨0.63%，沪深300涨0.26%，科创50涨1.01%。 责任编辑：山上 沪深两市1734股上涨，3306股下跌，142股持平。合计成交额2.14万亿元，较前一交易日放量约32.81亿元；大盘主力资金净流出387.72亿元，汽车零部件主 力资金净流入居首，其次是家电行业、通用设备、文化传媒、消费电子，通信设备主力资金净流出居首，其次是电子元件、风电设备、光伏设备、航天航 空。 周三是今年最后一个交易日，资深市场人士徐小明指出，周三是日线收盘、周线收盘、月线收盘、也是年线收盘。2025年就这样过去了，中间经历了4月7日 单日大跌千股跌停的至暗时刻，也经历了中间几乎无下跌除了涨就是横的148个交易日的上升周期。2025年是罕见的慢牛走势。 徐小明表示，非常期待中国股市能走出长周期慢牛，他不止一次提到过慢牛对于市场的好处，慢牛才是王道。从目前来看，年线收盘到相对高位基本格局已 定，慢牛也会被历史记录下来。 徐小明分析，今年跟以往最大的不同在于，今年的股市资金很多都是理性投资，居民存款居高不下，代表了市场能投资 ...

大盘走出8连阳，周五放量收阳十字星，盘中出现跳水，收盘3963.68点，成交21601亿，外资继续休息。板块上海南自贸区，小金属等表现较强，次新， 消费电子，能源系列等表现较差。个股跌多涨少。 | स्टेसि | 开始时间 | 结束时间 | 天数 | 春季躁动收益率 全年收益率 | | 日均涨幅 | 期间指数走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 2010/2/8 | 2010/4/14 | 42 | 9.78% | - 6 8 | 0.23% | | | 2011 | 2011/1/25 | 2011/4/18 | રૂડે | 14.32% | -22.42% | 0.27% | | | 2012 | 2012/1/6 | 2012/3/2 | 36 | 15.20% | 4.68% | 0.42% | | | 2013 | 2012/12/4 | 2013/2/8 | 46 | 25.20% | 5.44% | 0.55R | | | 2014 | 2014/1/14 | 2014/2/19 | 22 | 9.60 ...

十年等待，一朝突破。当沪指终于跨越4000点大关，市场以万亿级别的成交量回响，一轮由科技驱动的"慢牛"正悄然改变中国资本市场的格局。 上证指数在2025年10月28日收于4005.44点，这是自2015年8月19日以来，时隔十年，沪指再度站上这一关键点位。 A股市场的火热并不仅限于指数，更直观地体现在成交量上。2025年8月25日，沪深两市全天成交额达到惊人的3.14万亿元，创下年内新高，也是历史第二高 水平。此前连续多个交易日，成交额突破2.5万亿元已成为常态。 这一轮行情，是十年磨一剑的厚积薄发。 01 历史性突破 十年前，上证指数在4000点上方短暂停留后，伴随着市场的剧烈波动，开启了一段漫长的调整期。2015年的高点5178点，成为了一个时代投资者心中难以逾 越的山峰。 2025年，A股市场开启了新一轮牛市行情，上证指数不仅一度上破4000点大关，创下近十年来新高，总市值更是历史性地突破了100万亿元大关。 这轮被称为"科技重估牛"的行情，与以往有着本质的不同。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，本轮A股牛市是在科技突破和产业驱动、制度改革、资金流 入和风险偏好提升共同推动下形成的。 首先，科技主线的强势 ...

过去的一周，大盘连续5天收涨，日线更是走出8连阳。深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数、北证50指数均有不同程度上涨。市场从前期调整阶段逐步回归上 升通道，整体风险收益比得到改善。 | F10 | G = 上证指数 999999 | 标记 -自选 返回 | 指标 | 统计 画线 | 叠加 | 事件 | MA250: 3562.78 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ◇ □ | 3963.68 44.06 | | | | | | | | 4000 | Bearing of the Research and Children and Chi | 今日开盘 | | | | | | | 昨日收盘 | 3900 | 3 | 指数振幅 | | | | | | 总成交额 | 3800 | 总成交量 | | | | | | | 指数量比 | 2700 | 3658.3 | 上证换手 | | | | | | Ａ股 涨停 | 3600 | 涨幅 > 7% | | | | | | | 涨幅 5-7% | 3500 | 涨幅 3-5% | | | | | | | ...

"我们预计2026年实际GDP增速在4.8%-4.9%区间，名义GDP较2025年提升至4.5%左右。"张瑜分析，经 济"下半场"的盈利支撑值得期待。她将未来一年的经济图景比喻为一条轴线，消费是"轴中"稳定器，出 口是确定高于增速的"轴上"力量，而投资则可能成为"轴下"的拖累项。在这一结构性分化中，中游制造 业的崛起与资本市场的价值重估，构成了理解2026年投资主线的双重线索。 宏观定调：韧性出口与"有为不激进"的财政平衡 展望2026年，宏观经济的核心特征将是结构分化与政策定力下的平稳运行。在"三驾马车"中，消费的基 础性作用和出口的韧性将成为稳定增长的关键。 张瑜预计，社会消费品零售总额增速将保持在4%左右，但包含服务消费在内的居民实际消费增速有望 达到4.5%-5%。"居民消费正从商品向服务延展，结构优化的趋势非常明显。"这一转变意味着内需的支 撑将更加多元和可持续。 出口则被视作确定性更高的增长动力。张瑜判断，2026年出口增速有望达到5%，继续高于经济整体增 速。"全球工业生产在未来9至12个月将呈现温和复苏，这对中国的中间品和资本品出口构成直接支撑， 外需韧性依然存在。"相比之下，固定资产投资增速 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 开源晨会 1225 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 国防军工 2.881 电子 2.122 建筑材料 1.720 轻工制造 1.688 机械设备 1.487 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.845 | | 煤炭 | -0.699 | | 食品饮料 | -0.363 | | 银行 | -0.304 | | 传媒 | 0.005 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】从"慢牛不慢"到"平顶非顶"——2026 年年度投资策略-20251224 从"资产重估"到"盈利修复"，2026 年更可能"低斜率慢牛"而非"尖顶短牛" 2025 年开启的"资产重估"牛市的空间与节奏：（1）空间上，证券化率为判 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after reaching the monthly target of 4018, the market is not expected to accelerate quickly but rather enter a consolidation phase to digest overheating and rebuild order through time and turnover [1] - The monthly strategy focuses on avoiding emotional trading and prioritizing discipline, with the goal of managing overheating rather than seeking continuous upward movement [1] Group 2 - The weekly analysis indicates that different indices are in varying stages of consolidation, with the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext leading the recovery after completing their respective digestion phases, while the Shanghai Composite is in a typical topping structure [2] - The strategy for the week highlights that effective risk control is based on following structural trends rather than making predictions, allowing for fluctuations as long as key support levels are maintained [2] Group 3 - The daily analysis identifies 3918 as a critical resistance level and 3888 as a significant support level, with the market transitioning from a repair phase to a topping phase after stabilizing above 3888 [3][4] - The analysis suggests that the optimal strategy is to monitor the market's behavior around these key levels rather than chasing breakouts, focusing on maintaining strength above 3888 [4] Group 4 - The hourly analysis describes a typical healthy pullback pattern during the upward trend, confirming support levels while digesting short-term profit-taking [5] - It is noted that during strong market conditions, the focus should be on confirmation points rather than emotional trading [5] Group 5 - The rotation of market hotspots is centered around two main lines of attack, particularly in technology hardware and metals, indicating a clear trend in sector performance [6] - The strategy emphasizes understanding the rhythm of sector rotation and selectively investing in strong directions while being patient with underperforming sectors [6] Group 6 - The operational strategy advises focusing on sector trends before individual stock trends, with specific guidelines for managing positions based on moving averages [6] - The mindset should prioritize discipline and adherence to rules, emphasizing that the essence of a slow bull market is not daily gains but consistent adherence to a repeatable strategy [6]

【导读】刘鸣镝：A股慢牛初长成，2026年看好四大主题 2025年12月19日，由中国基金报主办，摩根资产管理、慧博科技、安永支持的2025资本市场香港论坛成功举行。 论坛主题为"科技与资管赋能高质量发展"，为紫荆文化集团主办的"首届国际AI艺术节"系列活动之一，汇集约150位来自香港特区政府、高校、科技企 业、金融服务机构以及境内外资产管理机构的相关负责人、专业人士，共同探讨驱动资产管理和科技增长的新动能，剖析人工智能(AI)革命带来的新机 遇，激辩全球视野下的中国资产配置新机遇。 摩根大通中国内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝在本次论坛上发表题为"慢牛初长成：亚洲视角下的中国股票展望"的主题演讲。刘鸣镝回顾了近年 中国股票市场表现，并发表了对2026年市场的核心思考和深度解读。其核心观点指出，中国股市已步入慢牛初期，企业业绩将成为2026年市场核心驱动因 素，多个板块回报空间可期。 回顾2025年，行业表现分化明显。正向回报行业中，材料类行业受益于"反内卷"政策趋势与去美元化背景下对贵金属的需求，以及新能源对银、铝、铜， 碳酸锂等资源需求支撑，实现翻倍收益；医疗健康行业贴合创新发展浪潮，回报率超60%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered the initial phase of a slow bull market, with corporate earnings expected to be the main driving factor in 2026, and multiple sectors showing potential for returns [2][8]. Group 1: Slow Bull Market Formation Logic - The institutionalization of A-shares is a key reason for the current slow bull market, contrasting with the retail-driven market of 2014-2015 [4]. - Corporate earnings are gradually improving, providing crucial support for market growth, with the MSCI China Index expected to see a 2%-3% year-on-year growth in 2025 [5]. - The "PBOC put" mechanism introduced by the People's Bank of China has provided essential support to the market, alongside a narrowing of market volatility due to the dominance of institutional funds [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance in 2025 - Positive return sectors include materials, benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy and demand for precious metals, achieving returns of over 100%; the healthcare sector has seen returns exceeding 60% [6]. - The insurance sector performed well due to growth in new premiums and a favorable stock market, while AI-related sectors such as gaming, media, and semiconductors have become market favorites [6]. - Conversely, sectors linked to macroeconomic recovery, such as food and beverage, electricity, and delivery services, have underperformed due to weak consumer recovery and excessive competition [6]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The main themes for 2026 include exports, AI, "anti-involution," and consumption, with corporate earnings being the most critical factor for stock performance [8][9]. - The MSCI China Index is projected to reach a target of 100, the CSI 300 Index at 5200, and the MSCI Hong Kong Index at 16000, all expected to achieve double-digit returns in 2026, supported by earnings growth [8]. - Key sectors to watch include export-related industries benefiting from global fiscal and monetary easing, AI-related sectors with recovery potential, and the consumer sector showing a "K"-shaped recovery [9].