Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold properties continues to decrease, and the month-on-month decline in new construction and completions is narrowing, suggesting a gradual stabilization in the real estate market [6][4] - The report highlights that while there are short-term fluctuations in sales, the overall trend is moving towards stabilization, with key actions needed to enhance rental returns and accelerate inventory reduction [6][4] Summary by Sections Sales and Inventory - In November, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with sales amount dropping by 25.1%. The decline in sales area and amount has narrowed compared to October [6] - As of the end of November, the unsold housing inventory stood at 750 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for nine months, indicating effective inventory clearance [6] Investment and Construction - National real estate investment in November fell by 30.3% year-on-year, with new construction down by 27.6% and completions down by 25.5%. However, the month-on-month decline in new construction has narrowed compared to October [6] - The report notes that funding for real estate development has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 10.4% and personal mortgage loans down by 34.7% [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that sales will remain under pressure in Q1 2026 due to high base effects, but improvements are expected in the second half of 2026 as various positive factors converge [6] - It suggests focusing on companies with optimized inventory structures and strong land acquisition capabilities, such as China Resources Land and Jianfa International, which are likely to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [6]

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have declined, with notable drops including China Overseas Grand Oceans Group down 4.85% to HKD 1.96, Yujule Group down 4.76% to HKD 0.3, Shimao Group down 3.37% to HKD 0.201, and R&F Properties down 2.94% to HKD 0.66 [1][1][1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing nationwide decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 11.1% year-on-year [1][1][1] - Investment, new construction, and completion areas in the real estate sector continued to decline year-on-year during the same period, indicating that the overall real estate market remains in an adjustment phase [1][1][1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that under various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, the market is gradually moving towards stabilization since 2025, although prices may still experience slight fluctuations [1][1][1] - The expectation is that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the existing housing supply and demand relationship will improve, accelerating the stabilization process of the real estate market [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization in 2026, with core indicators indicating a narrowing decline, although overall market sentiment remains weak due to inventory pressure and market expectations [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most research institutions predict that the real estate market will stabilize in 2026, with high-quality assets in core cities likely to recover first due to policy support and demand [2][4][12]. - The development logic of the industry is shifting from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," focusing on affordable housing, urban renewal, and the construction of quality homes [2][4][12]. Group 2: Policy Environment - The policy environment remains supportive, with continued easing measures such as lower commercial and provident fund loan rates, and the gradual removal of restrictions in first-tier cities [4][12][15]. - The central government emphasizes the need for a new model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply and promoting high-quality development [12][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall transaction volume and prices in the real estate market are stabilizing, with core city inventories manageable and some third- and fourth-tier cities showing signs of bottoming out [5][7][19]. - The willingness of residents to leverage their finances is low, influenced by housing prices and income expectations, while the supply side remains under pressure due to high inventory levels [4][5][7]. Group 4: Investment and Sales Projections - In a neutral scenario, total housing transaction volume is expected to decline by 5.0% in 2026, with new and second-hand homes projected to drop by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [8][15]. - Real estate investment is anticipated to remain under pressure, with a projected decline of 14.9% in 2026, although the pace of decline may slow [8][15][19]. Group 5: Company Strategies - Real estate companies are expected to shift their focus towards product competitiveness, operational capacity enhancement, and risk management in response to the evolving market conditions [11][15][19]. - The emphasis on "good housing" standards will lead to a more diversified approach to housing choices, focusing on safety, comfort, and community service quality [11][12].

转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，在持续宽松的政策环境下，我国房地产多项核心指标降幅有所收窄并出现逐步企稳的迹象，但 是受市场预期和库存压力等因素影响，市场总体仍然偏弱。2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，房地产如 何发展，对国民经济和社会发展将产生至关重要的影响。 时值岁末，各家证券研究机构陆续推出对2026年房地产市场走势的研判。多数机构认为，2026年房地产 市场将整体趋稳，核心城市优质资产有望在政策优化与需求支撑下率先企稳，而低能级城市仍面临去化 压力。行业发展逻辑从"增量扩张"转向"存量优化"，保障性住房、城市更新、"好房子"建设等领域成重 要发展方向。随着政策端的持续呵护与实体经济的回暖，未来基本面将大概率实现企稳。 平安证券：政策延续呵护 2025 年全国楼市先扬后抑， 预期偏弱与库存高企为政策未见明显成效主因，需求端受房价及收入预期 影响，居民加杠杆意愿不强；供给端开工未售去化周期仍处于高位。同时"好房子"对旧规产品分流逐步 显现，二手房"以价换量"占比持续提升。自"4·30"政治局会议明确"持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"以 来，商业贷款及公积金贷款利率进一步下调，一线城市限制政策陆续退出。 展 ...

其中在稳市场方面，王青认为，明年政策将进一步从供需两端发力，或涉及引导商业银行加大对房企开 发贷的投放力度，继续放松限购，更大力度收购商品房用作保障房，通过居民房贷定向降息、财政补贴 等方式加大居民购房支持力度，减免房地产交易税费等多个方面。 在推动房地产高质量发展方面，在王青看来，未来房地产行业要逐步形成以租售并举、建设"好房子"、 回归房地产居住属性为核心的新发展模式。 会议提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，总体上看，2026年房地产政策有两个重点： 继续推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。 资料图房地产工作仍强调防风险 今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项房地产支持性政策，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。政策成效还在继续显现，但房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示，10月70个大中城市房价止跌回稳还面临一定压力，前10月房地产销售下降的形势 ...

成交端来看，今年以来，核心城市在优质项目带动下表现平稳，其中一季度市场延续修复态势，但二季 度以来市场动能有所转弱，四季度在房企促销、改善项目入市下，核心城市仍维持一定规模。二手房 在"以价换量"下，1月—11月重点30城二手住宅成交套数同比小幅增长。 土地方面，2025年，各地政府保持"缩量提质"供地策略，根据中指数据，1月—11月300城住宅用地成交 规划建面同比下降15.8%，出让金下降6%。房企拿地进一步向核心城市聚焦，北上深杭等城市土拍热度 较高，带动1月—11月一二线城市出让金同比增长4%。全年土地市场热度"前高后低"，三季度以来，核 心城市优质地块供应放缓，土拍热度有所下降。城市集中度方面，1月—11月，TOP20城市住宅用地出 让金占全国比重为57%。央国企仍是拿地绝对主力，地方国资托底力度有所减弱。 政策方面，报告认为，预计短期政策将继续聚焦推动房地产市场止跌回稳，围绕稳定预期、激活需求和 优化供给落实相关举措。激活需求方面，一是北上深等城市限制性政策具备进一步优化空间；二是预计 继续通过降低房贷利率、降低中介费用、加大房贷利息抵扣个税力度等方式降低购房成本。优化供给方 面，预计未来有望通过 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月11日，中指研究院发布中国房地产市场2025总结&2026展望。中指研究院指出，2026年 是"十五五"开局之年，预计更多增量政策将加速落地，将有助于促进需求释放。根据中指测算，中性情形下，预计 2026年全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降6.2%，降幅较今年有所收窄，市场分化态势延续，"好城市+好房子"仍具备 结构性机会。 在控增量、优存量政策导向下，预计2026年新开工面积下降8.6%，降幅较过去几年明显收窄；预计房地产投资同比 下降11%。供给端缩量将有助于市场库存下降，推动供求关系改善。中长期来看，"十五五"新建商品住宅年均销售 面积预计将保持在7-8亿平米左右，随着市场库存逐步回落，配合社会预期修复，预计"十五五"中后期，房地产有望 逐步走出调整阶段。 数据来源：国家统计局 图：2015年以来全国新建商品房累计销售面积以及销售额同比增速 中指研究院指出，2025年，全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势。二季度以来新房销售边际转弱，二手房市场持续"以 价换量"，市场整体仍处于"止跌回稳"过程中。8月，国务院会议重申要"采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态 势"，释放积极信号。10月，《 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite short-term macro challenges, China's complete AI industrial chain advantage positions it as a necessary choice for global capital diversification, with a focus on technology and consumption in the coming years [1][4][10] - The three key transformations since September 24, 2024, are policy changes, corporate evolution, and shifts in capital flow, which have contributed to a new atmosphere in China's capital markets [4][5][8] - The policy shift initiated on September 24, 2024, aims to reshape market confidence by addressing deflationary cycles and balancing development with safety, which is crucial for stabilizing consumer expectations and employment [5][10] Group 2 - The corporate sector has shown resilience and innovation despite challenges from real estate adjustments and geopolitical tensions, with advancements in AI, smart driving, and biopharmaceuticals indicating a revival of competitive vitality [7][8][10] - There has been a fundamental shift in capital flow, with a notable return of institutional investors to Chinese asset markets since late 2024, as global investors seek diversification beyond USD assets [8][9] - The anticipated policy framework for 2026 emphasizes gradual efforts to combat deflation and aims for nominal GDP recovery, with infrastructure investment remaining a key focus in the short term [11][12][13] Group 3 - The real estate market's stabilization is critical for breaking the deflation cycle, with policies like mortgage interest subsidies being proposed to support homebuyers and restore market confidence [17][19] - Fiscal and tax reforms are necessary to enhance consumer demand, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggesting a shift towards a unified national market and increased investment in social welfare [20][21][22] - The proposed reforms aim to balance the focus on production with consumer needs, potentially increasing the consumer spending share of GDP from around 40% to approximately 45% by 2030, thereby expanding the domestic market [22][23][24]

房地产 房地产 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，扎实推进好房子建 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增长，支持城市 存 量 设 施 更 新 改 造 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 《新房成交面积环比增长，以高水平 安全保障城市高质量发展—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 《高基数下销售数据承压，开竣工面 积降幅扩大 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.11.16 | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently in a phase of stabilizing after a decline, with the second-hand housing market showing early signs of recovery, while the new housing market is recovering slowly due to developers' debt issues [1][2][3] - The market has experienced four rounds of policy stimulus, which have had short-term effects but have not fundamentally changed the weak transaction volume trend [1][3] Core Insights - Since June 2021, the comparable prices of second-hand homes have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative adjustment of 35% [1][3] - It is projected that in 2026, the sales area of second-hand homes will decline by approximately 3% year-on-year, while the sales area of new homes will see a smaller decline [1][3] - Real estate development investment is expected to be around 7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 15% [1][3] - The pressure on the market remains, with various indicators likely to continue declining, although at a slower rate [1][3] Factors Influencing the Market - The upward cycle of the real estate market depends on four key factors: demand, payment capacity, leverage space, and supply [2][9] - Current challenges include slowing population growth, limited urbanization potential, high housing price-to-income ratios, and significant corporate debt pressure [2][8][9] - The need for policy determination to address corporate debt and asset matching issues is emphasized [2][9] Strategies for Stimulating Demand and Improving Payment Capacity - To stimulate housing demand, strategies such as urban renewal, village renovations, relaxing purchase qualifications, and providing birth subsidies are suggested [10] - Improving payment capacity requires increasing income, reducing tax burdens, stabilizing the economy, ensuring employment, and lowering mortgage rates and transaction taxes [10] Addressing Inventory Issues - The real estate inventory problem is a significant concern, necessitating a reduction in housing supply, expediting the implementation of existing projects, and minimizing the supply of guaranteed housing [12] Future Market Outlook - The cyclical nature of the real estate market suggests that confidence and patience are needed while waiting for policy effects to manifest [13] - The market's future trajectory will be closely linked to monetary factors, as historical data indicates a strong correlation between asset prices and money supply [1][3]