Core Viewpoint - Jin'ao International (00009.HK) reported a significant turnaround in its mid-term performance, achieving a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 198 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of HKD 134 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2025 were approximately HKD 0.0555, a recovery from a loss of HKD 0.0312 per share in 2024 [1] - The board of directors did not recommend the payment of dividends for the six months ending June 30, 2025, consistent with the previous year [1] - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were approximately HKD 57,000, down from HKD 96,000 as of December 31, 2024 [1] Industry Context - The Chinese real estate industry is experiencing a combination of policy support and market transformation aimed at stabilizing the market and accelerating the development of new industry models [1] - Although market sentiment has shown slight improvement, rebuilding confidence will take time, with sales recovery exhibiting structural and regional characteristics [1] Strategic Focus - During the deep adjustment cycle of the industry, the company continues to streamline operations and focus resources on the development of five quality projects [1] - The company aims to enhance asset management capabilities and profitability, increase property market value, improve asset efficiency, and further consolidate its position in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is stabilizing due to supportive policies aimed at releasing housing demand and promoting high-quality development, despite some fluctuations in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The total transaction volume in the national real estate market has remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 1.9% in new and second-hand housing transactions from January to October [1] - The decline in new housing sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% in sales area and 9.6% in sales value, showing improvement compared to the previous year [1] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters by the end of October, marking eight consecutive months of decline [2] Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of funds received, narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The delivery rate of the "guaranteed delivery" initiative has reached 99%, ensuring the rights of homebuyers and boosting confidence in new housing project deliveries [2] Group 3: Regional Policy Measures - Various regions have implemented targeted policies to stimulate the housing market, such as reducing purchase restrictions in major cities and providing subsidies for home purchases [3] - The market is transitioning from new housing sales to a focus on second-hand housing, with second-hand transactions accounting for 44.8% of total transactions and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in transaction area [2][3] - The ongoing transformation of the real estate market requires time, with fluctuations in certain indicators expected as a result of strict control measures and market adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is stabilizing with a dominant share of second-hand housing transactions, driven by various policy adjustments and incentives aimed at supporting housing demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Various cities have implemented measures such as home purchase subsidies and optimized housing credit policies to stimulate the market [2]. - Over 60 cities have introduced policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, including "old-for-new" schemes [2]. - The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry reported a 4.7% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area from January to October [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is gradually increasing, with second-hand homes becoming the norm in the market [1][3]. - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes remained stable, indicating effective policy measures [2]. - The sales area and sales volume of new homes have seen a reduction in year-on-year decline, with the drop narrowing by 9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: City Performance - Cities such as Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Xiamen have reported year-on-year growth in new and second-hand home transactions [3]. - Second-hand housing transactions in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have increased by over 10% year-on-year [3]. - The shift towards second-hand housing is attributed to urbanization transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the importance of housing's living attributes [3].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, primarily driven by young people and new urban residents [2][3] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing has decreased by 6.8% from January to October this year, but the decline is less severe compared to the same period last year [2] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing is increasing, with a notable rise in its market share, as it offers advantages such as lower total price and better location [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to October 2023, the transaction area of both new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The new housing market is increasingly catering to improvement needs, while the demand from young and new urban residents is shifting towards the second-hand housing market [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports that 15 provinces have seen second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales [2] Group 2: Policy and Supply Management - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to control new housing supply, optimize existing stock, and improve quality as part of a new phase in housing supply-side management [3][4] - The strategy of controlling new supply aims to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize housing prices, with new construction area declines narrowing to below 20% this year [4] - The focus on understanding housing demand changes across different demographics and regions is crucial for effective supply management, including the types of housing needed [4][5] Group 3: Quality and Demand Activation - High-quality housing supply is essential to stimulate demand, with a focus on improving not just new homes but also old and affordable housing [5] - The concept of "good housing" should be applied across various housing types, not limited to high-end properties, to encourage consumption and upgrade [5] - Efforts to enhance employment and income are necessary to boost consumer willingness and ability to invest in quality housing, creating a positive feedback loop between supply and demand [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, new home prices in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline narrowed. First-tier cities maintained their price decline [6][10] - Second-hand home prices experienced both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [6][10] - The report highlights that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization due to various policies aimed at halting the decline, with expectations for further stabilization in the future [6][10] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.4%, and -0.5% month-on-month respectively, with an overall decline of -0.5% across 70 cities, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to September [3][13] - Year-on-year, first, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.8%, -2.0%, and -3.4% respectively, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities narrowing by 0.1 percentage points to -2.6% [3][13] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by -0.7% month-on-month, with the decline rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.9%, -0.6%, and -0.7% respectively [4][20] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points [4][20] Key City Performance - In a focus on 35 key cities, new home prices showed mixed results, with Shanghai leading with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% and a year-on-year increase of +5.7% [5][28] - Conversely, second-hand home prices in these cities uniformly declined, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year drop of -1.8% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [6][10] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment rating for the real estate industry in Xi'an, reflecting ongoing market adjustments and a need for sustained policy support to stabilize prices and expectations [3][12][25]. Core Insights - The Xi'an real estate market is experiencing a significant contraction, with the top 10 real estate companies achieving total sales of 64.87 billion yuan from January to October 2025, a decrease of 32.59 billion yuan or approximately 33.4% year-on-year [12]. - The market is in a "stop decline and stabilize" phase, with recent policies aimed at promoting recovery, although the momentum for recovery is weakening [3][4]. - The supply of new homes is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, supported by land parcels acquired in core cities earlier in the year, but market differentiation will continue [3][25]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The top 10 real estate companies in Xi'an for January to October 2025 are ranked by sales revenue, with Poly Development leading at 10.62 billion yuan, followed closely by China Railway Construction Real Estate at 10.44 billion yuan [5][6]. - The sales area for these companies shows a similar trend, with Poly Development also leading in sales area at 642,000 m² [5][6]. Market Trends - The second-hand housing market has shown positive growth, with transaction volumes increasing year-on-year, while the new housing market has seen slight recovery due to the introduction of quality projects [4][12]. - The average price of new residential properties in Xi'an increased by 0.56% month-on-month and 2.82% year-on-year as of October 2025, indicating a slight upward trend in pricing [18]. Land Market - The land market in Xi'an has seen a reduction in the number of residential land transactions, with 96 plots released and 73 plots sold, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.93% and 44.13% respectively [19]. - The average floor price for land has increased to 6,694 yuan/m², a year-on-year rise of 31.64%, indicating a tightening supply and increased competition for prime land [19][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continuation of moderate recovery and internal differentiation in the Xi'an real estate market, with new housing supply remaining active and quality projects driving market dynamics [25]. - Market confidence is expected to strengthen due to ongoing policy support and an increase in quality supply, leading to a gradual stabilization of the overall market by year-end [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate stocks have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in share prices for several companies, despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, Greentown China (03900) rose by 8.36% to HKD 8.94, R&F Properties (02777) increased by 5.66% to HKD 0.56, New World Development (01030) gained 4.04% to HKD 2.32, and Shimao Group (00813) climbed 3.85% to HKD 0.27 [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of CNY 253 billion in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Cumulatively, the top 100 real estate companies reported a sales turnover of CNY 25,766.6 billion, which represents a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the rate of decline widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports that the supply and demand situation in the real estate market has improved, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market in 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities also believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms possibly reaching a long-term profitability bottom [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, with notable stock price increases for several companies, including Greentown China, R&F Properties, New World Development, and Shimao Group [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] - Cumulative performance shows that the top 100 real estate companies recorded a total sales turnover of 25,766.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the decline rate widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports an improvement in the supply and demand situation in the real estate market, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles, particularly those with good city layouts and valuable investment properties [1]

行业走势图 房地产 2025 年 11 月 09 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《去库存止跌回稳仍需加力，"好房 子"形成代差扩张需求—房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略》-2025.11.3 《新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地 产市场持续健康发展—行业周报》 -2025.11.2 《二手房成交面积环比增长，推动房 地产高质量发展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.26 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，福州发布预售新政 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，福州发布预售新政 本周我们跟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market's supply and demand situation has improved, and adjustments have been sufficient, indicating a potential stabilization in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - It is anticipated that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some companies possibly reaching the bottom of their profit cycle [1] - Companies that are the first to recover are likely those with well-positioned assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [1]