过去三十年，是中国经济实现跨越式发展、城镇化快速推进的关键时期，房地产行业也实现了规模与质 量的显著提升。自1998年"房改"至2021年新房市场规模见顶，全国新建商品房销售面积累计增长12倍， 销售额增长67倍。在此期间，房地产业在扩大内需、促进投资等方面发挥了重要作用，解决了亿万中国 家庭的基本居住需求，支柱产业地位持续巩固。近年来，随着经济产业结构转型和宏观形势变化，房地 产逐步向居住属性回归。行业政策环境亦经历了从宽松支持、到与市场频繁博弈、再到长效机制逐步建 立的过程。当前，房地产供求关系已发生重大变化，行业正经历深刻的市场调整与发展模式重塑。 中国房地产指数系统完整见证并记录了中国房地产市场三十年的起伏与变迁，紧跟行业发展脉搏，逐步 构建起覆盖新建住宅、二手住宅、土地与商办市场的多维度指数体系。2010年，"百城新建住宅价格指 数"正式推出，实现对全国100个重点城市新建在售楼盘的系统监测；随着房地产市场逐步进入存量时 代，系统又于2020年和2022年先后推出"百城二手住宅价格指数"和"住宅租赁价格指数"，持续强化行业 价格监测的全面性与精准性，为洞察市场、研判趋势提供了重要依据。 展望未来，中 ...

当楼市出现调整，赣州老城区那些建于上世纪、已经老旧的二手房，是继续留在手中还是低价处理呢？ 近期我们关注并介绍了赣南纸厂小区在某二手房平台成交了一套单价仅1900多元的二手房，让很多老赣州人内心感到唏嘘。 其实在这波调整中，对于老城区许多上世纪八九十年代的老旧小区，这种价格还真的不是个例了。 我们必须接受一个事实，在当前房地产供求背景下，当城市发展重心转移，拆迁预期又比较难实现的时候，老房子的价值内核已经发生了改变。 许多产品功能落后、居住体验差的老破旧在这一轮周期中受到的冲击最大，甚至大有被市场抛弃的态势。 房龄突破三十年，楼层又高的两房户型，成交单价在两三千左右一平米，总价不过二十万，这样的房源在老城区并不少。 例如2025年6月15日，赣州新赣南路社区成交了一套建筑面积约65.33㎡两房一厅，成交单价3031元/㎡，成交总价19.8万元。 该房屋位于高楼层（共8层），小区建成时间大概在1990年。 又例如一个多月后的7月29日，赣州姚府里成交了一套建筑面积约67.87㎡两房一厅，成交单价2093元/㎡，成交总价仅为14.2万元。 该房屋的建成年份大概在上世纪八十年代末至九十年代初之间，同样也位于高楼层（ ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...

加拿大最大房地产市场正在经历持续降温，多伦多地区地产局最新数据显示，今年11月大多伦多地区房屋销量同比下降15.8%，平均售价也出现明显下 滑。 这不仅是多伦多的现象，温哥华、卡尔加里等主要城市也呈现类似趋势。 销量与价格双双走低 根据多伦多地区地产局（TRREB）12月3日最新发布的报告，2025年11月大多伦多地区通过MLS系统完成的房屋交易量为5,010套，相比2024年11月下降 15.8%。 与此同时，新挂牌房源数量也同比下降4%，显示市场整体活跃度有所降低。 买家等待更多确定性 "当前的经济不确定性让许多多伦多买家选择观望。" TRREB 主席 Elechia Barry-Sproule 在新闻稿中指出。 她同时表示，很多家庭确实希望利用当前较低的借贷成本和更有利的售价，但他们最需要的是对长期就业前景的信心。 价格方面同样不容乐观。11月平均售价为1,039,458加元，同比下降6.4%。MLS房价指数综合基准同比下降5.8%，市场调整态势明显。 大温哥华地产局首席经济学家 Andrew Lis 对此现象解读道："库存保持健康，为买家提供了充足选择，这也促使卖家接受定价必须反映这一新现实。" 他强 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by an initial recovery followed by a decline, with high inventory levels and weak demand impacting overall performance [4][13] - The report anticipates that the supportive policies for the real estate market will continue into 2026, although market confidence will take time to recover [4][5] Market Review - In 2025, the national real estate market experienced a decline in sales, with a 9.6% year-on-year drop in sales amount from January to October, although the decline was less severe than in 2024 [13] - The second-hand housing market outperformed the new housing market, with a reported 8% increase in transactions for the top ten cities compared to a 10.5% decline in new homes [13][46] - The overall market remains in an adjustment phase, with supply-demand relationships still needing improvement [13] 2026 Outlook - Positive factors are expected to converge, leading to a gradual stabilization of the real estate market, particularly in core urban areas and quality housing [4][5] - The report predicts a 6% decline in sales area and an 8.5% decline in investment for 2026, reflecting ongoing market pressures [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The demand for "good houses" is projected to grow, with an average annual improvement demand of 590 million square meters from 2025 to 2030, representing 67% of total demand [4] - Quality real estate companies with strong land acquisition and product capabilities are expected to benefit first from the "good house" trend, with companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5][6] - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 20.3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for the first ten months of 2025, presenting investment opportunities for Hong Kong-based real estate firms [4][5][52] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for several key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Poly Developments and China Overseas Development, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [6][7] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property, are also recommended for investment consideration [5][6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月03日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格上涨50元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%， PVC开工率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率基本稳定。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策 终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，只是 中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小幅增加， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面 积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成 交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值， PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃 耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开 会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振 ...

在刚刚过去的11月份，房地产市场延续分化态势。新房价格环比上涨，二手房市场则仍处于以价换量阶 段。 中指研究院最新数据显示，11月份，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为17036元/平方米，环比上涨 0.37%，同比上涨2.68%；全国100个城市二手住宅平均价格为13143元/平方米，环比下跌0.94%，同比 下跌7.95%。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶分析称，新房方面，11月份市场供应整体仍在低位，上海、成都、 杭州等城市均有高端改善项目入市，带动核心城市新建住宅均价上涨，进而推动百城新建住宅价格环比 保持结构性上涨；二手房方面，在高挂牌量及预期偏弱影响下，价格下行压力有所加大。 从成交量情况来看，今年前11个月，北京、上海、广州、深圳四大一线城市的新房销售面积同比均有所 下降；二手房市场则维持一定热度，北京、上海成交量分别同比增长2%、8%，深圳二手房成交量则同 比增长超10%。 "当前市场处于积极的调整过程中，其中新房市场价格保持平稳向好态势，和新房项目品质较高有关 系。近两年新房项目的地段优势更加凸显，且具有较好的增值属性。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长严 跃进在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mona Lisa (002918), is navigating a challenging environment in the ceramic industry, focusing on high-quality development amidst a transition from growth to competition in a saturated market. The company is also assessing its receivables in light of ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector. Group 1: Company Operations and Industry Overview - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of building ceramics. As of the end of 2024, there were 993 large-scale enterprises in the building ceramic industry, a decrease of 29 from 2023, with an 11.75% exit rate of production lines compared to 2022. The industry is shifting from an incremental growth phase to a competitive phase, with expectations of increased concentration [1]. - The ceramic industry is expected to continue its development trend into 2025, driven by favorable national policies and significant market demand from urbanization, renovation of existing properties, and public building decoration [1]. - The company has not yet planned to establish production bases abroad, although some competitors are doing so to mitigate high transportation costs and tariffs. The company will disclose any future plans in accordance with regulations [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 80.5 million yuan, down 42.71%, with a gross margin of 27.12% [7]. - The real estate market remains under adjustment, with no signs of stabilization in new investments, completions, or sales. However, the existing real estate market still holds substantial demand, and the ceramic market, despite adjustments, maintains significant capacity [5]. - The company is actively monitoring the collectability of its receivables from real estate clients and has recognized credit impairment losses where necessary, indicating a cautious approach to potential future bad debts [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Quality Standards - The ceramic industry is undergoing automation and smart upgrades, enhancing production efficiency. However, the unique economic and policy environments abroad mean that practices cannot be directly replicated in foreign markets [4]. - The establishment of a multi-dimensional quality evaluation system for ceramic products is expected to drive quality upgrades in the industry, helping companies better position their products and improve production processes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales and prices, leading to a shift in perspective on property investment, as highlighted by industry leader Cao Dewang's views on the value of real estate [9][11][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - In 2024, the total sales area of newly built commercial housing is projected to be 973.85 million square meters, a decrease of 12.9%, with sales revenue dropping by 17.1% to 9.675 trillion yuan [9]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 10.09% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 0.57%, marking 31 consecutive months of price drops [9]. - The central government has implemented policies to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payments to 15% and reducing mortgage rates to between 3.2% and 3.5% [11]. Group 2: Investment and Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that housing prices may decline by an additional 20% to 25% from 2025 to 2027, particularly in lower-tier cities where there is no basis for recovery [13]. - The current housing market is characterized by an oversupply, with approximately 1.2 billion vacant homes, enough to accommodate 300 million people, suggesting a significant mismatch between supply and demand [11]. - The advice from industry leaders like Cao Dewang emphasizes the importance of focusing on cash and real investments rather than relying on real estate as a wealth-building tool, especially for younger generations [13][17].

楼市风云变幻，各方观点交织。一方面，自去年上半年起，国内楼市利好政策频出，助力购房者。除了一线城市，多数二三线城市已解除限购、限售的束 缚，降低了购房门槛。更令人欣喜的是，房贷利率持续走低，已降至4%左右，显著减轻了购房者的还款压力。更有如郑州、合肥等省会城市，创新性地允 许提取公积金支付首付款，各地也纷纷上调公积金贷款额度上限，进一步降低了购房成本。 但另一方面，楼市调整的信号亦不容忽视。5月份，百城新房、二手房价格环比下跌的城市数量分别增至54个和83个，环比增加10个和7个，新房和二手房价 格环比均下跌的城市数量也达到了44个，较上月增加9个。新房成交面积和成交量下滑的同时，各地二手房挂牌量却呈井喷之势。以上海为例，二手房挂牌 量已突破18万套，北京超过12万套，重庆、武汉等重点城市更是突破20万套大关。 面对这扑朔迷离的市场走势，有人乐观，认为在诸多利好政策的刺激下，房价将重回上升通道，"今明两年不买房，五年后徒后悔"。然而，悲观者则认为， 国内房地产市场已步入调整期，各项利好政策只能延缓下跌，难以逆转大趋势。 最后，投资炒房者正逐步退出市场。四月份以来，国内主要城市二手房挂牌量持续攀升，背后是投资客 ...