Core Viewpoints - The Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with both new and second-hand housing transactions performing well, driven by self-occupancy demand [5] - Shanghai's policy adjustments are more extensive than Beijing's, with measures such as relaxed purchase restrictions and tax incentives aimed at boosting market activity [7][8] - The land transaction market is experiencing low activity, with significant fluctuations in supply and demand, as evidenced by the recent data showing a 61% increase in land supply but a 6% decrease in transaction volume [11] Policy Insights - Central government policies are providing significant tax relief for new investments, allowing eligible companies to claim a 60% refund on retained VAT, which enhances the industry's resilience [12] - The recent land auction in Beijing's Shunyi District saw a low-density residential plot sold at a base price of 1.03 billion yuan, indicating cautious bidding behavior in the current market [9] Company Performance - Greentown China reported a nearly 90% decline in net profit, with contract sales of 12.22 billion yuan and a sales area of 5.35 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% and 9.5% respectively [15] - Poly Developments maintained its position as the industry leader with total sales of 145.17 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease of 16.25% in sales volume [16] - Binjiang Group is focusing on the Hangzhou market with a stable annual sales target of 100 billion yuan while managing to reduce debt levels [17] Industry Trends - Leading real estate companies are innovating by collaborating with major brands to enhance community engagement and property value through creative design strategies [21] - The concept of full-window designs is emerging as a competitive differentiator in residential products, offering nearly 10% additional usable space [23]

Core Insights - Shanghai has introduced six measures to optimize the real estate market, including significant adjustments to purchase restrictions and housing fund policies [1] - The implementation of the "Six Policies" has led to a surge in inquiries and consultations in the real estate sector, indicating heightened buyer interest [2][4] Group 1: Market Response - The hotline for real estate inquiries in Shanghai saw a dramatic increase, with call volume more than doubling after the new policies were announced, reaching 480 calls in one hour [2] - The first day of the new policies saw a notable increase in foot traffic and consultations at new housing projects, with some locations reporting a 20% to 50% increase in visitor numbers [1][3] Group 2: Buyer Behavior - Buyers are responding to the new policies by increasing their budgets, with some opting to raise their spending by hundreds of thousands of yuan to secure preferred properties [3] - The new policies have released pent-up demand from buyers who previously faced restrictions, leading to a quicker decision-making process among potential purchasers [5] Group 3: Industry Adjustments - Real estate agencies have adapted to the new market conditions by canceling regular days off to accommodate increased client demand for property viewings [4] - The new policies are expected to accelerate market absorption and stabilize second-hand housing prices, reflecting a strategic adjustment in response to market needs [5]

Group 1 - The "Six Measures" (沪六条) issued by Shanghai's housing authorities on August 25 aims to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including changes to housing purchase limits, housing provident fund, personal housing loans, and property tax regulations [1] - Following the implementation of the "Six Measures," two real estate projects in Shanghai sold out immediately on the first day, indicating a strong market response. The "Jinmao Tangqian" project in Baoshan District sold 160 units at an average price of 53,900 yuan per square meter, achieving a subscription rate of 162.5% [2] - The "Haisangyin" project in Minhang District also sold out 168 units at an average price of 82,000 yuan per square meter, with a subscription rate exceeding 170% [2] Group 2 - The new policies have led to a significant increase in activity in the second-hand housing market, with a reported 10% increase in overall contract signing volume following the announcement of the "Six Measures" [3] - Data from real estate agencies indicate a surge in inquiries and browsing activity, with Shanghai Lianjia reporting a 17% increase in browsing volume and a 14% increase in consultation volume on the first full working day after the policy change [3] - Pacific Housing reported a 166% increase in new listings and a 40% increase in new clients, suggesting that the effects of the new policies may become more pronounced in the following weeks [3]

Policy Insights - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Chengdu have introduced policies to optimize housing funds and reduce purchase restrictions, reflecting a positive market outlook [1] - Shanghai's new policies include reducing housing purchase limits and optimizing housing fund loans, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring [1][13] New Housing Market Overview - In the week ending August 24, 2025, 30 major cities recorded a total housing transaction area of 162.30 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 29.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.86% [2] - First-tier cities saw a transaction area of 47.73 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 2.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.6% [2] - Second-tier cities experienced a significant week-on-week increase of 60.0%, while third-tier cities had a modest increase of 12.1% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market Overview - In the week ending August 24, 2025, 15 key cities recorded 24,800 second-hand housing transactions, an increase of 8.84% week-on-week and 3.93% year-on-year [5] - First-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) had 9,386 transactions, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [5] - Other cities saw a total of 15,480 transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [5] Market Heat and Trends - The new housing market heat index decreased, while the second-hand housing market heat index showed a slight recovery, indicating market stabilization [8] - First-tier cities experienced a decrease in new housing heat by 1.10, while second-hand heat increased by 0.30 [10] - The overall trend suggests a mixed performance across different city tiers, with first-tier cities facing more significant declines in new housing heat compared to second-tier cities [10] City-Specific Transaction Insights - Cities with notable increases in housing transactions include Dalian (+35%), Qingdao (+25%), and Wuhan (+18%), while cities with significant declines include Quanzhou (-65%) and Wenzhou (-58%) [4][7] - The performance of second-hand housing transactions varied, with cities like Foshan (+22%) and Dalian (+7%) showing growth, while Nanjing (-25%) and Qingdao (-19%) faced declines [7] Summary of Recent Policies - Shanghai's new real estate policies aim to reduce purchase limits and optimize housing funds, while Zhuhai and Guangzhou are implementing measures to facilitate the conversion of commercial loans to housing funds [13] - Chengdu has reduced the down payment ratio for affordable housing to 15%, increasing loan limits to support homebuyers [13] - Shenzhen has approved a list of compliant housing development loans to support the completion of existing projects [13]

符合条件的家庭外环外不限购、住房公积金可用作购房首付、房贷利率不再区分首套和二套房……上海 市住房城乡建设管理委、上海市房屋管理局等六部门25日联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施 的通知》，次日起施行。 沪籍居民家庭和沪籍成年单身人士，虽然在外环外购买住房不限套数，但在外环内限购2套住房。非沪 籍居民家庭和非沪籍成年单身人士，自购房之日前在上海市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满3年及以 上的，在外环内限购1套住房。 个人住房房产税政策也将进行相应完善。通知规定，对符合条件的非沪籍居民家庭购买的第一套住房暂 免征收房产税；购买的第二套及以上住房在合并计算家庭全部住房面积后，给予人均60平方米的免税面 积扣除。（记者 郑钧天） 住房公积金政策也进一步优化。通知提高了个人住房公积金的贷款额度。对缴存人购买二星级及以上新 建绿色建筑住房的，住房公积金最高贷款额度上浮15%。首套最高贷款额度从160万元提高至184万元， 多子女家庭首套上浮比例可叠加计算，从192万元提高至216万元；二套最高贷款额度从130万元提高至 149.5万元。 转自：新华网 值得关注的是，此次政策明确支持提取住房公积金支付购房首付款。购买 ...

Group 1: Rural Development - The rural infrastructure is set to undergo significant upgrades, with a focus on improving old roads and expanding narrow rural roads as per the Ministry of Transport's new action plan [3] - The goal is to transform permanent basic farmland into high-standard farmland, with a target of 1.3 billion acres by 2030, enhancing irrigation, drainage systems, and access roads [5][6] - The rural living environment will see improvements, including increased waste management and sewage treatment facilities, contributing to a more livable rural area [6] Group 2: Real Estate Policy Changes - The housing rental market will experience major reforms with the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations on September 15, addressing issues like false listings and deposit disputes [8] - Tax incentives will significantly reduce the costs of second-hand home transactions, with lower tax rates and relaxed purchase restrictions in major cities [10] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, with a plan to build 1.8 million units by 2025, enhancing the housing security system [11] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - The purchase of new energy vehicles is becoming more affordable due to various subsidies, making previously expensive models much cheaper [13] - The introduction of new national standards for new energy vehicles next year will enhance both affordability and safety [14] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The monetary environment is expected to become more accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in response to external factors and domestic economic pressures [15] - This could lead to lower borrowing costs for both individuals and businesses, easing financial burdens [15] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Financial Management - There is a noticeable shift towards more rational consumer spending, with a focus on value and practicality rather than impulsive purchases [17] - Individuals are diversifying their income sources beyond salaries, leading to increased financial resilience [19] - Investment strategies are becoming more cautious, with a focus on safety and steady returns rather than high-risk opportunities [21]

住房公积金政策也进一步优化。通知提高了个人住房公积金的贷款额度。对缴存人购买二星级及以上新 建绿色建筑住房的，住房公积金最高贷款额度上浮15%。首套最高贷款额度从160万元提高至184万元， 多子女家庭首套上浮比例可叠加计算，从192万元提高至216万元；二套最高贷款额度从130万元提高至 149.5万元。 值得关注的是，此次政策明确支持提取住房公积金支付购房首付款。购买上海市新建预售商品住房的缴 存人，可以按规定申请提取本人及配偶的住房公积金支付购房首付款。 商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制也进行了优化调整。通知明确优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机 构根据上海市市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安 排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。居民购房利 息负担有望进一步减轻。 个人住房房产税政策也将进行相应完善。通知规定，对符合条件的非沪籍居民家庭购买的第一套住房暂 免征收房产税；购买的第二套及以上住房在合并计算家庭全部住房面积后，给予人均60平方米的免税面 积扣除。（记者郑钧天） 新华社上海8月25日电 符合条件的家庭外环外不限 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report by the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [3][6] - The researchers are Zhou Tao, Ding Zuchao, and Qi Chunyi [3] Group 2: Steel Related Information - The central government plans to strengthen the national carbon market by 2027 and form a carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [3] - As of July, the national power generation capacity was 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly [3] - On August 25, the average cost of 76 independent EAF construction steel mills was 3347 yuan/ton, with an average loss of 99 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 1 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices in Shanghai and Beijing increased, with Shanghai rebar at 3310 yuan (+320), Beijing rebar at 3250 (+10), Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin hot-rolled coil at 3380 yuan (+20) [4] Logical Analysis - The black - plate oscillated weakly on the night of August 23. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 11110 tons [5] - Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil increasing. The five major steel products accumulated inventory, but the speed slowed down [5] - Steel exports remained strong, and hot - rolled apparent demand was high. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom [5] - Steel demand improved, iron - water production remained high, and exports were strong, supporting steel prices [5] - As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease next week, relieving supply pressure [5] - A coal mine accident in Fujian increased the expectation of coal mine production cuts, supporting pre - parade steel prices [5] - After August, coal consumption will decline, and if the coal mine production cut expectation fails, post - parade steel prices may face pressure [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7] - Arbitrage: Close profitable long - short positions [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - Henan coke enterprises will limit production by 20 - 35% from August 25 to September 3, and some have already implemented a 30 - 35% limit [10] - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [10][17] Logical Analysis - Coking coal prices fluctuated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Coke supply and demand were in a tight balance, and mainstream coke enterprises planned an eighth price increase [12] - National coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, which will affect coal supply and gradually increase the coking coal price center [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly. Buy on dips [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [13] - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13] Group 4: Iron Ore Related Information - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions and tax exemptions [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [14] - From August 18 - 24, global iron ore shipments were 3315800 tons, a decrease of 90800 tons. Australia and Brazil shipments increased by 4400 tons [14] - Qingdao Port PB powder spot was 780 yuan (+13), and the 01 iron ore main contract basis was 36 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron ore prices fell slightly at night, and market sentiment was volatile [15] - In the past month, mainstream mine shipments increased year - on - year, with Australia flat and Brazil growing rapidly. Non - mainstream mine shipments were high in August [15] - In July, manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth slowed down. Manufacturing steel demand growth weakened, suppressing terminal steel demand [15] Trading Strategies - The report does not provide specific trading strategies for iron ore, only indicating that the above views are for reference only [16] Group 5: Ferroalloys Related Information - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [17] - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions [17] Logical Analysis - On the 25th, ferrosilicon spot prices were weak, with some areas up 50 yuan/ton. Last week's production growth slowed down, and futures prices were close to production costs after a sharp decline [18][20] - On the 25th, manganese ore spot prices were weak, and manganese - silicon spot prices were strong, with some areas up 70 yuan/ton. Production growth slowed down, and demand showed no downward trend [20] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to production costs, and high - premium risks have been released. Expect bottom - oscillating [21] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profits on spot - futures long positions [21] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. In the stock index futures market, the sector rotation between high - and low - performing sectors does not change the upward trend. In the stock index options market, the sentiment remains optimistic, and buying call options is still a strong strategy. In the bond market, the sentiment is warming up [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The sector rotation between high - and low - performing sectors does not change the upward trend. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and fluctuated on Thursday, hitting a new high. The hot sectors rotated, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemical industries leading the rise, while machinery, power equipment, and national defense and military industries leading the decline. Due to high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds, the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: The sentiment remains optimistic, and buying call options is still a strong strategy. The underlying market continued the optimistic sentiment of last week, with all varieties rising. The trading volume of the options market exceeded 20 billion yuan, up 36.72% from the previous trading day. All sentiment indicators in the options market give optimistic expectations. The volatility of each variety continued to rise significantly, approaching the level of April 8, 2025, but still about 10% away from the previous high on April 7 [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy call options and construct bull spreads [8]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warming up. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined significantly, with long - term bonds performing better than short - term bonds. The central bank made a net investment of 219 million yuan in the open market and a net MLF investment of 30 billion yuan in August. The capital market remains loose. The reaction of long - term bond yields to the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The 30 - year bond yield around 2% has certain cost - effectiveness for insurance and other institutional investors [3][8][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautious stance on trends. Consider long - position alternatives for hedging due to high short - position hedging costs. Pay attention to the narrowing of long - term basis and the steepening of the yield curve [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States on August 25, 2025, shows that the seasonally - adjusted annualized number of new home sales in July was 652,000 units, and the month - on - month change was - 0.61%. The economic data to be released includes China's cumulative year - on - year industrial enterprise profits in July, the US continued and initial jobless claims in August, the US second - quarter real GDP quarterly - adjusted annualized rate, PCE price index, and core PCE price index, as well as Japan's industrial production index and retail sales in July, and the US core PCE and PCE price indices in July [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Expanding Domestic Demand and Stabilizing Employment Policies**: On August 25, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, and promised to improve policies, create a fair market environment, and support enterprises [12]. - **Real Estate**: Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including removing the housing purchase limit for eligible households outside the outer ring and treating single adults as households for housing purchase limit policies [12][13]. - **Stock Market**: The three major A - share indices opened and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 3.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The document only lists the sections of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data is provided in the given content.

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 25 日，万得全 A 跳空高开后震荡上行，午间有所回落，随后再度走高， 收涨 1.80%，超 6 成个股上涨；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 2.08%、2.09%、1.89%、1.56%，中小盘股表现更优。指数 期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.79%、1.46%、 0.87%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算 ...