Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the political unrest in Indonesia and Thailand, which has led to significant declines in their stock markets, raising concerns about investment risks in Southeast Asia [3][5][6]. Group 1: Indonesia's Political Unrest - Indonesia's stock index fell by 1.5%, the largest drop among global markets, due to escalating protests against rising living costs and inequality [3]. - Protests were triggered by the revelation that members of parliament receive housing allowances of 50 million Indonesian Rupiah, nearly ten times the minimum wage in Jakarta [10]. - The protests have resulted in at least four deaths and widespread violence, with government buildings and properties being attacked [12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts express concerns that the political risks in Indonesia will increase, leading to a higher risk premium in the stock market [6]. - Despite the turmoil, Indonesia attracted a net foreign capital inflow of $676 million in August, while Thailand experienced an outflow of $670 million [8]. - Indonesia's stock market has seen an 11% increase this year prior to the unrest, while Thailand's market has declined by approximately 10% [8]. Group 3: Comparison with Thailand - Analysts are more optimistic about Thailand's market, citing cheaper valuations and potential economic stimulation from a new prime minister [7]. - Thailand has been plagued by political infighting for decades, which has hindered its economic growth compared to neighboring countries [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the 2-year bond yield dropping over 5 basis points while the 30-year bond yield approaches 4.95%, nearing the 5% mark [1] - There is a growing concern among investors regarding President Trump's recent strong stance against the Federal Reserve, which may undermine the central bank's independence and increase inflation expectations, impacting the dollar and the bond market [1] - The current political risk score for the U.S. is 41.79, close to the average of 28 emerging market countries at 44, indicating that the U.S. is becoming more similar to emerging markets in terms of risk [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury issued $70 billion in 5-year bonds with a winning yield of 3.724%, the lowest since September last year, and lower than July's 3.983% [2] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.36, slightly better than the previous month's 2.31 but still below the recent average of 2.37 [2] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, was 60.5%, up from 58.3% last month but significantly below the recent average of 69.3% [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. long-term Treasury market is signaling unease, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, the highest level since July, reflecting investor concerns over future inflation risks and potential impacts on the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating that long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, although the 30-year yield closed at 4.913%, nearly unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Analysts highlight that recent actions by Trump, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook and criticism of Fed Chair Powell, are raising fears about the Fed's independence and inflation expectations, drawing parallels to emerging market countries like Turkey [1][2] Group 2 - Political risks in the U.S. are perceived to be accelerating towards a "emerging market" model, characterized by increased political uncertainty and market instability, with the current political risk score for the U.S. at 41.79, nearing the average of 28 emerging market countries [2] - The correlation between U.S. political risk and the 30-year Treasury yield has strengthened since 2018, with the dollar index weakening since Trump's tariff announcements in April [2] - Despite rising political risks, the U.S. stock market remains resilient, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains, indicating a potential immunity to political uncertainty [3] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market's performance suggests that it may be less affected by political risks, with a phenomenon where higher risks correlate with rising S&P 500 values, attributed to the market's diversity and depth [3] - Market participants believe that Trump's interventions in the Fed and other institutions are narrowing the gap between the U.S. and emerging market risks, although a complete loss of Fed independence is still considered unlikely [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has heightened political risk concerns and boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices rose to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.43 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.83% following the announcement [1]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for government bonds steepened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged to over 87% [1]. Group 2: Catalysts for Gold Price Movement - The continuation of gold's upward trend in the short term depends on three key catalysts: the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts in September, upcoming GDP and PCE data confirming economic slowdown, and whether the dispute between Trump and the Fed escalates into a legal or political crisis [3]. - If the GDP and PCE data indicate economic weakness, it could further increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - If the independence of the Federal Reserve continues to be undermined, gold may enter a structural bull market, although concerns about inflation could lead to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The current environment, characterized by suppressed short-term rates and political instability, is generally favorable for gold [3].

周三（8月27日）亚洲时段，黄金期货维持上一交易日涨势，最新沪金主力报781.98元/克，涨幅 0.22%，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克的事件已成为金价飙升的催化剂，它不仅放大了对政治风险的 担忧，还强化了市场对降息的预期。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 昨夜公布的美国经济数据表现强势，这令金价走势短线承压，但特朗普对于联储理事库克职位的解除则 进一步削弱联储的独立性，美联储在中期货币政策转向鸽派是具备确定性的。 美国7月耐用品订单环比值为-2.8%，高于预期的-4%以及前值的-9.4%。美国8月里奇蒙德联储制造业指 数为-7，高于预期的-11以及前值的-20。美国8月谘商会消费者信心指数为97.4，高于预期的96.2。耐用 品订单数据公布后黄金价格短线回落。 在美联储宽松货币政策预期进一步发酵的背景下，白银价格的上涨幅度将明显大于黄金，金银比价将进 一步向下修正。沪金主力合约参考运行区间770-794元/克，今日沪金主力上方压力关注785-790，下方支 撑关注770-780。 同时，特朗普于昨日宣布解除美联储理事库克的职位，理由是其在财务交易中涉嫌犯罪，这是美联储成 立以来首次出现总统解雇理事的情况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French Prime Minister François Bérou's proposal for a confidence vote amid increasing political uncertainty has triggered a sell-off in French assets, highlighting the fragility of President Emmanuel Macron's position as his party has lost its parliamentary majority [1][2]. Political Landscape - The far-right National Rally, left-wing France Unbowed, and the Green Party have all stated their opposition to the government in the upcoming confidence vote on September 8, while the Socialist Party will not support the current government [1][2]. - If a majority of lawmakers vote against Bérou, he will be forced to submit his government's resignation, which would further emphasize Macron's weakened status [1][3]. Economic Impact - Following the political turmoil, the yield on French 10-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points to 3.51%, leading the global bond market decline, with the spread between French and German 10-year bonds widening to 75 basis points, the highest level since April [1][2]. - The French 10-year bond yield is now among the highest in the Eurozone, surpassing countries like Greece and Portugal, and is only about 8 basis points lower than Italy [2]. Government Measures - Bérou's proposal for the confidence vote aims to solidify support for his administration, especially after facing resistance to a €44 billion (approximately $51 billion) spending cut and tax increase plan, which he deems crucial to prevent a fiscal crisis [2][3]. - He has also suggested the cancellation of two public holidays, which has been met with ridicule from opposition parties [2]. Public Sentiment - Bérou's approval ratings have plummeted to the lowest levels seen during Macron's presidency, indicating a significant disconnect with public sentiment [4]. - There are concerns that ongoing political disputes could lead to street protests, with calls for a "total lockdown" on September 10 gaining traction among various political groups [4].

Intel on Monday warned of "adverse reactions" from investors, employees and others to the Trump administration taking a 10% stake in the company, in a filing citing risks involved with the deal. A key concern area is international sales, with 76% of Intel's revenue in its last fiscal year coming from outside the U.S., according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company had $53.1 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2024, down 2% from the year prior.For Intel's international custom ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of political developments on the US dollar, particularly in light of recent weak employment data and President Trump's actions regarding labor officials and Federal Reserve appointments, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently at 98.47, with a slight decline of 0.03% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - Following weak non-farm employment data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 48% to 91% within a week [1] - Cumulative expectations for rate cuts by the end of the year have reached 60 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The political intervention in monetary policy has intensified market bets on aggressive easing, as traditional economic indicators alone would have already strengthened such expectations [1] - Analysts warn that continued erosion of the Fed's independence could lead to a long-term trust crisis in the market, complicating the pricing environment for the US dollar [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is stabilizing above the 50-day moving average of 98.1886, indicating a slight short-term bullish momentum [1] - However, the 100-day moving average at 99.4597 and the 200-day moving average at 103.1420 present resistance levels, suggesting that the dollar has not fully reversed its medium to long-term downtrend [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the extreme market volatility faced by Wall Street professionals in the post-Trump era, emphasizing the significant impact of political risks on investment strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Daily Routine of Hedge Fund Managers - Hedge fund managers start their day by checking the latest tariffs imposed by Trump, which can drastically affect market positions [2][12] - The unpredictability of Trump's tweets and announcements creates a challenging environment for portfolio management, often leading to abrupt market movements [3][4][5] - Traditional fundamental analysis and risk management frameworks are being redefined due to the constant political news cycle [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - Market participants experience unprecedented trading difficulties, with significant fluctuations in futures and stock prices based on Trump's statements [6][8][10] - The volatility is illustrated by instances where futures dropped or surged dramatically within minutes following Trump's tweets [7][9][21] - The article notes that even corporate earnings calls are disrupted by political events, highlighting the intertwining of politics and finance [1][4][5] Group 3: Broader Market Context - The article reflects on the broader sentiment among investors, with discussions about the irrationality of the current market environment and the challenges of investing under such conditions [11][22][23] - There is a sense of nostalgia for the previous administration, where market conditions were perceived as more stable and predictable [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX has included a new "risk factor" in its investment documents, indicating that founder Elon Musk may return to U.S. politics, which introduces significant uncertainty regarding the company's future direction [1][3]. Group 1: Company Valuation and Investment - SpaceX's valuation has reached approximately $400 billion, as indicated in the latest share buyback offer documents [1][3]. - As part of the share buyback offer, SpaceX plans to repurchase shares worth $1.25 billion from employees and other shareholders [5]. Group 2: Elon Musk's Political Involvement - The new risk factor states that Musk may take on a role similar to his previous position as a senior advisor related to government efficiency under President Trump, potentially dedicating substantial time and effort to such a role [3][5]. - Musk had previously announced his intention to focus on his businesses, including Tesla and xAI, after leaving his government role, but his recent actions suggest a possible shift back towards political engagement [5]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Statements - Musk's recent statements and actions indicate a fluctuating commitment to politics, including a vow to form a new political party aimed at "removing congressional members" [5]. - On July 20, Musk expressed a return to a rigorous work schedule, stating he would work seven days a week if his children were not around, highlighting his intense work ethic [5].