长江期货棉纺产业周报 临近6月国际局势博弈，上行遇压 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-26 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 周度观点 整体观点：国内目前供需形势，4月底商业库存只有415万吨，工业库存95万吨，按照后面每月65万吨消费的话， 到了8月底商业库存只有155万吨，去年同期是214万吨，23年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是163万吨，显然今年 比23年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直 偏强就是这个原因，棉花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形势，09合约偏强。 但到了01合约，新棉，目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地200万亩，去年种植番茄其他作物，应该 都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至750万吨，新年度就宽松了些，所以限制了涨幅。目前短中期上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Report Core View - Tariffs entered a relaxation period, Zhengzhou cotton filled the gap, but the overall weak fundamental pattern remained unchanged. It is recommended to focus on the performance of the upper resistance level and mainly conduct range operations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot cotton price index: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Spot cotton basis quotes: In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton were above CF09 + 1000, with some high quotes above 1100; in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar, the basis for machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton was above CF09 + 800, and some non - Kashgar high - quality lint was quoted around CF09 + 1000 [7] - Pure cotton yarn market: This week's trading was still average, with demand declining in the off - season. Spinning mills mostly raised prices, but downstream procurement decreased after the price increase, and inventory accumulated, with overall market confidence lacking [7] - All - cotton grey fabric market: It was sluggish, with a significant decline in order volume and shipping speed, and it is expected that the inventory of weaving factories will continue to increase [7] - Macro aspect: The tariff relaxation period took effect at 12:01 on May 14, and positive effects continued to be released [8] - Overseas market: The US Department of Agriculture's May global cotton supply - demand report was slightly bearish, and the outer market was under pressure within a wide - range shock range. Attention should be paid to the subsequent growth and signing of US cotton [8] - Domestic market: The overall planting of new cotton was good, the sown area was expected to increase steadily, and the overall growth was okay. The downstream was in a weak state in the off - season, with the finished product inventory gradually accumulating but the inventory pressure not high. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicted that in the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton would still show a trend of increasing production and weak consumption [8] 2. Industry News - 2025/26 season: China's cotton sown area is expected to be 2,878 thousand hectares (43.17 million mu), a 1.4% increase from the previous year; the yield per hectare is expected to be 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as the previous year; the cotton output is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous year [9] - Consumption and import: Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, with consumption in the new season expected to be 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous year, and imports expected to be 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple figures related to cotton, including futures prices, basis changes, spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][22]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - According to the USDA's April 2024/25 global cotton supply - demand forecast, global cotton production is expected to be 26.321 million tons, consumption is down 114,000 tons, imports and exports are slightly down, and ending stocks are up 115,000 tons. The overall sowing progress of cotton in Xinjiang as of May 5, 2025, is about 99.9%, and the emergence rate is 86.2% [3]. - This week, the futures price of pure - cotton yarn strengthened following Zhengzhou cotton, and the yarn price rose in a restorative manner. After the holiday, the market was stable overall. Affected by the off - season, market transactions slowed down, and new orders decreased. Most small and medium - sized textile enterprises mainly had short, scattered, and low - profit orders, while large and medium - sized enterprises maintained high operating rates, but some had moderately reduced production [3]. - The industrial inventory of cotton in cotton textile enterprises is decreasing. As of the end of March, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.8396 million tons, and the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 959,300 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory is still at a high level [3]. - As of May 9, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 11,282 (4.85 million tons), with 853 valid forecasts (370,000 tons), and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.22 million tons, down from 5.31 million tons on April 30 [3]. - The basis of Class 31 double - 28 Xinjiang new cotton against the May contract is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and that of double - 29 cotton is 900 - 950 yuan/ton [3]. - Xinjiang's ginneries this season purchase cotton according to the futures price. After the sharp decline of cotton futures after the National Day, the purchase price of seed cotton decreased, and the overall average cost converted to the official standard is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Domestically, on May 7, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and introduced a package of financial policies. As of May 10, the China - US economic and trade high - level talks started in Geneva, but no more information was released about the tariff negotiations [3]. - Given the global trade contraction, the rebound of cotton prices is expected to have limited amplitude and sustainability. The September contract faces significant hedging pressure at 13,200 - 13,400 yuan. The strategy is to short on rallies, mainly using the idea of short - term shorting and covering at lows [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Global Supply and Demand - The USDA estimates that the world will continue to accumulate cotton stocks in the 2024/25 season. Global ending stocks are expected to be 17.17 million tons, with an inventory - to - use ratio of 67.97%, up 3.10 percentage points year - on - year [6]. - In April, the USDA increased China's cotton production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 6.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. Global production is expected to be 26.321 million tons, a 7.00% increase [9]. - The new - season global cotton market is still expected to have a supply surplus [11]. US Exports - As of April 24, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 2.58 million tons of 2024/25 cotton, reaching 108.71% of the annual expected export volume, and had shipped 1.827 million tons, with a shipment rate of 70.84% [17]. Overseas and Domestic Conditions - Overseas cotton mill operating rates are relatively stable [22]. - In China, the downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded, with the weaving factory operating rate steadily increasing. However, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis, and the initiative to replenish inventory is insufficient. The raw material inventory of weaving factories has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has continued to accumulate [25][31][34]. - The immediate profit of Chinese spinning mills has slightly rebounded as the futures price declined. The industrial and commercial cotton inventories in China are at their highest levels in recent years, and the total amount of new cotton warehouse receipts is still high [36][39][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the domestic cotton market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Although the inventory depletion rate has accelerated since March due to a significant decrease in imports, downstream consumption remains weak. The future trend of cotton prices depends on changes in downstream consumption. If consumption weakens significantly, cotton prices may fall; if consumption does not decline much, there is a possibility of a rebound in Zhengzhou cotton prices. Additionally, factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic cotton purchase and storage policies may also lead to a rebound in cotton prices [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Impact of US Tariff Policy on Cotton Prices - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners and higher tariffs on some countries with large trade deficits. This led to a significant increase in textile and clothing costs for major cotton - importing and textile - exporting countries such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, resulting in a decline in consumption and a sharp drop in domestic and international cotton prices. Subsequently, Sino - US tariffs increased in a spiral. However, on April 10, the US announced a 90 - day suspension of tariffs on more than 75 countries (excluding China), causing US cotton prices to rebound, while short - term domestic and international cotton price trends diverged [4]. Domestic Cotton Consumption - Despite being in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," domestic cotton textile and clothing industry demand is weaker than in previous years. As of April 3, the mainstream spinning mill operating rate was 75.7%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the mainstream weaving mill operating rate was 43.7%, a decrease of 18.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Moreover, the spinning mill operating rate has been declining for three consecutive weeks since reaching its peak this year on March 6 [5]. Domestic Cotton Supply and Inventory - In the 2024/25 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, with the national cotton inspection volume reaching 679 million tons as of April 9, an increase of 107 million tons year - on - year. However, imports decreased significantly, with cumulative imports from August 2024 to February 2025 only at 90 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons year - on - year. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level in March and April. As a result, domestic supply - demand has shifted from loose to tight - balanced, and inventory depletion has accelerated since February. The national commercial cotton inventory decreased from 524 million tons on January 24 to 442 million tons on April 4 [9][12]. Future Outlook - In the short term, international cotton demand is expected to improve due to the 90 - day tariff suspension in most countries by the US. However, the domestic situation is uncertain. Although there is a possibility of resuming re - export trade, current domestic consumption is weak. With limited new import supply until May, the future trend of cotton prices depends on downstream consumption. If consumption is significantly affected by tariffs, prices may fall; otherwise, there is a chance of a rebound [20].