Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump expresses optimism about upcoming trade agreements with Japan and potentially India, while also advocating for lower oil prices [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. may strictly adhere to the trade agreement reached with Japan [1] - There is a possibility of another trade agreement with India in the future [1] - Trump mentions the intention to announce several significant agreements, particularly targeting 150 smaller countries with which the U.S. currently has limited trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - Trump hopes for a further decrease in oil prices, stating that a price of $64 per barrel is excellent [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights former President Trump's desire for lower oil prices, expressing that a price of $64 per barrel is excellent for the economy [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Trump hopes for a further decrease in oil prices, indicating that the current price of $64 per barrel is favorable [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Russia's oil prices in July, when measured in rubles, are still 11% lower than the budget target set for 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral oscillation (adjusted from relatively strong) [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific star rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] Core Viewpoints - The increase in global oil inventories accelerated marginally in Q2, and the overall inventory decreased by 0.3% in the first week of Q3. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating of the crude oil market this week is adjusted to neutral oscillation [2]. - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack spread is expected to continue its downward trend, while the LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The asphalt supply increase's resilience needs further observation, and the price increase is limited before demand improves substantially [3]. - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures market oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, the overall inventory decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation. The upside space for Brent crude above $70/barrel is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend, with a deeper decline in FU and a widening spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, and the FU crack spread is expected to decline. The LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. Asphalt - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the shipments of 54 sample refineries decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June. The asphalt price is supported by low inventory, and the upward movement is limited before demand improves [3]. LPG - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the top of the domestic gas price under pressure. The futures market oscillates weakly [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices showed resilience, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $70.36 and $68.45 per barrel respectively as of July 11, 2025, supported by various factors including OPEC+ production increases and a decrease in refined oil inventories [2][8] - The report highlights a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by $2.06 per barrel (+3.02%) and WTI crude futures increasing by $1.45 per barrel (+2.16%) in the week ending July 11, 2025 [28] - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production to 13.385 million barrels per day, a reduction of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week [48] - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of July 11, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 per barrel, up $2.06 (+3.02%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up $1.45 (+2.16%) [28][21] - The report indicates that the increase in oil prices is attributed to OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical factors affecting supply and demand [2][8] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 385, with a net addition of 5 platforms, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 134 [33] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.385 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs dropping to 424 [48][39] - The report notes an increase in the number of pressure pumping fleets to 180, indicating some activity in the sector despite the overall production decline [48] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing decreased to 17.006 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week [59] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories rose to 829 million barrels, an increase of 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%) from the previous week [68] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $101.69, $91.13, and $94.08 per barrel respectively, with respective increases of $2.12, $2.86, and $1.96 [89][93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spreads also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. The end of Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4th ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week, US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs dropped rapidly as of July 4th, and the US fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Analysts believe that oil prices face multiple bearish factors such as tariffs, inventory, and production increases. OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said that bearish drivers for oil prices include uncertainties around US tariffs and potential production increases from OPEC+. Despite strong travel demand during the July 4th holiday weekend in the US, API data showed an increase of about 7.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, although refined product inventories decreased. Dutch bank ING analysts said that the overnight API data was bearish for oil prices but that changes in refined products were more constructive [3]. - DBS Bank expects that OPEC's actual supply will not increase significantly. DBS Bank's energy department team leader Suvro Sarkar said that oil prices have shown remarkable resilience in the face of the accelerating increase in OPEC+ supply, attributing this support to seasonal demand peaks and the expectation that some OPEC+ members will make up for earlier over - production, so actual supply is not expected to increase significantly [3]. - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [3]. - Kuwait's oil giant believes that OPEC+'s production increase signals a tightening market. Kuwait Petroleum Group CEO Sabah said that OPEC+'s recent large - scale production increase and communication with customers indicate that the growth momentum of global crude oil demand will continue after the summer driving season. He also mentioned that the company maintained close communication with Gulf partners during the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran last month to ensure stable oil supply [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 4th, US crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 906,000 barrels per day to 6.013 million barrels per day [4]. - The EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4th was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices and monthly spreads oscillated within a narrow range. WTI spot was tight. Trump's policy change on July 4th was favorable for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in August, and Trump had some diplomatic and negotiation plans. The US imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories were flat, US commercial crude oil inventories accumulated, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, diesel inventories decreased, and the number of US oil rigs decreased rapidly. Global refinery profits rebounded, and it was the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with the WTI and Brent markets stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's production increase and Trump's policies [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite an acceleration in OPEC+ supply, oil prices have shown remarkable resilience due to seasonal demand peaks and the intention of some OPEC+ members to compensate for earlier production surpluses, leading to an expectation that actual supply will not increase significantly [1] Group 2 - Suvro Sarkar, head of the energy department at DBS Bank, emphasizes the impact of seasonal demand on oil prices [1] - The expectation of limited increase in actual supply is linked to the actions of OPEC+ members addressing previous production overages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea indicates that the increase in June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is primarily due to base effects, and anticipates a slowdown in CPI growth in July if oil prices and foreign exchange trends continue [1] Group 1 - The June CPI growth is attributed to base effects [1] - A potential slowdown in CPI growth is expected in July [1] - The future CPI growth is contingent on the trends of oil prices and foreign exchange [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing volatility in crude oil prices and the potential investment opportunities that may arise from this situation [1] - It raises questions about whether the risk associated with oil price fluctuations is also on the rise, indicating a shift in the supply-demand structure [1] - The article suggests that it may be the right time to enter the market, prompting further analysis on the current dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable change in the supply-demand structure of the oil market, which could influence pricing and investment strategies [1] - The article implies that understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed investment decisions [1] Market Timing - The piece emphasizes the importance of identifying the right entry point for investments in the oil sector, given the current market conditions [1] - It suggests that the timing of investments could significantly impact potential returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone, which reached the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% in June, is expected to decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The recent rise in inflation was primarily driven by a surge in oil prices, which spiked over 10% due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East [1] - As oil prices are projected to decrease at the end of the month, the inflation rate is likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to lead the ECB to pause its actions later this month [1] - Tariff measures are anticipated to suppress European exports and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, which may prompt the ECB to implement interest rate cuts in the fall [1]